What exactly is a share price catalyst?
Published 23-APR-2022 13:36 P.M.
17 minute read
A “share price catalyst” is an expected event for a company that could move the share price in a significant way (up OR down), depending on the outcome.
One way to think about a potential share price catalyst is as a “known unknown”.
We may know the subject matter of the event, hopefully a timeframe of when it will occur, but NOT the end result.
The result could be good, or it could be bad, especially when investing in early stage exploration companies that live or die by delivering drilling results.
We know roughly when the drill results are coming - but don’t know if they will be terrible, just OK, good, great or spectacular.
That’s why early stage investing brings both risks and rewards.
We have gone through all our Portfolio companies and collated the next potential price catalyst for each Investment, what the potential catalyst is and when it is expected to happen, which you will find listed below.
First we’ll start off with our Top 5 “Biggest and Nearest” potential share price catalysts across our Portfolios.
Just remember that when results are released they can be good OR bad (depending on the market's expectation) and share prices will move up or down accordingly, especially in early stage investing.
Our Top 5 “Biggest and Nearest” potential share price catalysts
A double addition to our Catalyst Hunter Portfolio, PRM and GLV represent a combined stake of 37.5% in the Sasanof Prospect. Located in the North West Shelf, offshore WA, drilling is set to take place in May. A high impact gas drilling event of this magnitude comes along rarely for ASX juniors (warning: this one is high risk).
Here is our PRM & GLV Investment Memo
Maiden Helium Well Drilling: Grand Gulf Energy (ASX:GGE) - Catalyst Hunter Portfolio
Helium is desperately needed for semiconductor manufacturing and with US helium prices soaring, GGE is set to drill its maiden well in Utah at the end of April after a short pause for a capital raise that was completed last week.
Here is our GGE Investment Memo..
Elephant gas drilling event: Invictus Energy (ASX:IVZ) - Next Investors Portfolio
We have been waiting nearly 2 years for this one... and it’s finally happening in June.
IVZ is a gas exploration company that is targeting an “elephant” gas drilling event at one of the largest un-tested onshore African gas prospects. Elephant fields are conventional oil or gas fields with a recoverable reserve of 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent or more.
Located in Zimbabwe, our 2020 Energy Pick of the Year has been working for a long time to get to this potentially transformative moment.
Here is our IVZ Investment Memo.
European cobalt drilling: Kuniko (ASX:KNI) - Next Investors Portfolio
KNI is about to drill its Zero Carbon cobalt project in Norway, which is on grounds that were formerly the largest cobalt producing region in the world.
Europe is the fastest growing battery market in the world and desperately needs local supplies of cobalt. Drilling is slated to begin 2nd May.
Here is our KNI Investment Memo.
Hydrogen Joint Development Agreement: Province Resources (ASX:PRL) - Next Investors/Wise Owl Portfolios
PRL is aiming to develop a Zero Carbon, green hydrogen project in WA that could produce 550,000 tonnes per annum.
PRL is seeking to develop its green hydrogen project in partnership with Total Eren, which is part owned and branded by TotalEnergies — one of world’s largest global energy supermajors, with a €100BN-plus market cap
To advance their project, PRL needs to sign a Joint Development Agreement with their partner, Total Eren. This will materially de-risk the project and according to the last quarterly their MoU was “extended to May 31st 2022 to allow finalisation of a joint development agreement”
Here is our PRL Investment Memo.
Next expected Catalysts across the rest of our Portfolio companies
Of course, new UNEXPECTED announcements may come out at any time, positive or negative.
Please note the timeframes are either what have been released to market or our best guesses based on information in company presentations.
See below for more on GAL, BPM, FNT and LCL who all have near term expected drilling or results too.
Nearest term potential catalysts are marked with “🔜” - click on the company name to read our investment memo for that company.
- Vulcan Energy (ASX:VUL) - development stage Zero Carbon Lithium in Europe (Germany), Next Investors/Wise Owl Portfolio Catalyst: Complete Phase 1 Definitive Feasibility Study (H2 2022)
- Euro Manganese (ASX:EMN) - development stage High purity manganese in Europe (Czech Republic) Next Investors/Wise Owl Portfolio Catalyst: Demo Plant Progress (June/July)
- European Metals Holdings (ASX:EMH) - development stage European Lithium Catalyst: DFS and Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) (late 2022)
- 🔜Galileo Mining (ASX:GAL) - early stage exploration nickel in WA, also with a palladium project (Western Australia) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Assay Results and EM Survey, Fraser Range nickel (imminent) results from AC drilling of PGE (Norseman) EM target (late May-early June)
- Pursuit Minerals (ASX:PUR) - early stage exploration platinum group elements, nickel and copper (Western Australia) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: PGE-Nickel-Copper (Warrior) AC (ongoing) Assays - (June)
- 🔜Latin Resources (ASX:LRS) - lithium and other battery metals exploration, halloysite (Brazil, multiple countries) Catalyst Hunter Portfolio Catalyst: Assays for drill holes 5 & 6, new drilling at Monte Alto (early May).
- 🔜 Aldoro Resources (ASX:ARN) - lithium and rubidium exploration (Western Australia) Catalyst Hunter Portfolio Catalyst: JORC Rubidium Resource (late May)
- FYI Resources (ASX:FYI) - HPA developer (Western Australia) Wise Owl Portfolio Catalyst: Alcoa Partnership Progress (near-term) Financing (late 2022)
- Evolution Energy Minerals - graphite developer (Tanzania) Wise Owl Portfolio Catalyst: Drilling, ESG Improvements
- GTi Resources (ASX:GTR) - early stage exploration for uranium (USA) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Catalyst: Plan & commence new uranium drilling campaign (unknown timeframe)
- Minbos Resources (ASX:MNB) - phosphate/green energy (Angola) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Updated DFS (Q3 2022), Construction by Q1 2023
- Elixir Energy (ASX:EXR) - natural gas and green hydrogen (Mongolia) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Catalyst: Drilling results (ongoing, more), Gas production testing (mid-year)
Technology: Health and Cybersecurity
- 🔜 Whitehawk (ASX:WHK) - growth stage - US based cybersecurity tech company (primarily USA) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Quarterly with revenue update (before end of April)
- 🔜 Oneview Healthcare (ASX:ONE) - growth stage - health tech (multiple countries) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Quarterly with revenue update (before end of April)
- 🔜 Advanced Human Imaging (ASX:AHI) - early stage health/wellness tech company (global) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Quarterly with revenue update (before end of April)
- Tempus Resources (ASX:TMR) - early stage exploration - gold (Canada) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: New gold drilling (Blue Vein) campaign / season (early June)
- 🔜 Los Ceros (ASX:LCL) - later stage exploration - gold (Colombia) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: "Jabba the blob" drilling results (end of April), additional targets (unknown timeframe)
- 🔜 Thomson Resources (ASX:TMZ) - development stage - silver projects roll up (Queensland) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Maiden Resource Estimate for Silver Project (Webbs) (May)
- Titan Minerals (ASX:TTM) - development stage - gold (Ecuador) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: JORC Resource Estimate (end of year), additional assays
- 88 Energy (ASX:88E) - later stage exploration and development oil & gas (Alaska) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Analyse drilling data from Merlin-2 well (unknown timeframe), resource update at Icewine (Q2 2022)
- Elixir Energy (ASX:EXR) - later stage exploration natural gas (Mongolia) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Drilling results (ongoing, more), Gas production testing (mid-year)
Early stage metals exploration (commodities supercycle)
- 🔜 BPM Minerals (ASX:BPM) - lead, zinc (Western Australia) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Start of lead-zinc drilling in Earaheedy basin, 7,500m AC/ RC (imminent)
- Panteral Minerals (ASX:PFE) - iron ore, plus side projects in manganese and base metals (Western Australia) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Lead-silver (Hellcat) Drilling Q2 + Iron Ore (Sep Q)
- GTi Resources (ASX:GTR) - uranium (USA) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Plan & commence new uranium drilling campaign (unknown timeframe)
- Mandrake Resources (ASX:MAN) - copper exploration (Chile) Catalyst Hunter Portfolio Catalyst: DD on Chilean copper before drilling campaign timeframe (ends 31 May)
- TechGen Metals (ASX:TG1) - multi commodity explorer (Australia) Catalyst Hunter Portfolio Catalyst: Exploration Update (near-term)
- Ragusa Minerals (ASX:RAS) - multi commodity explorer (Australia, Alaska) Catalyst Hunter Portfolio Catalyst: Drilling Results for Halloysite Project (near-term, unknown timeframe)
- Auking Mining (ASX:AKN) multi commodity explorer (Australia) Catalyst Hunter Portfolio Catalyst: Metwork Results (near-term, unknown timeframe)
- 🔜 Alexium International (ASX:AJX) - high performance chemicals (USA) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Quarterly with revenue update (before end of April)
- BOD Australia (ASX:BOD) - medicinal cannabis (multiple countries) Wise Owl Portfolio Catalyst: 2x Clinical trials to commence for insomnia and long COVID (near-term)
- Vonex (ASX:VN8) - growth stage telco (Australia) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: Quarterly with revenue update (before end of April)
- Dimerix (ASX:DXB) - phase III trials biotech (Australia) Next Investors/FinFeed Portfolio Catalyst: First FSGS patient dosed (near term)
- Noble Helium (ASX:NHE) - globally significant prospective helium resource (Tanzania) Next Investors Portfolio Catalyst: 9 additional Prospecting Licences + Geochem (near term)
- 🔜 Frontier Resources (ASX:FNT) - rare earths (Western Australia) Catalyst Hunter Portfolio Catalyst: Drilling WA Rare Earths Project (late April / early May)
- Iron Road (ASX:IRD) - iron ore development stage (South Australia) Wise Owl Portfolio Catalyst: Financing partner (unknown timeframe)
- Canyon Resources (ASX:CAY) - bauxite development stage (Cameroon) Wise Owl Portfolio Catalyst: Mining convention agreement - precursor to the mining license (near-term)
- Food Revolution Group (ASX:FOD) - beverage manufacturer (Australia) Wise Owl Portfolio Catalyst: Quarterly with revenue update (before end of April)
- Arovella Therapeutics (ASX:ALA) - cancer immunotherapy (Australia) Next Investors/FinFeed Portfolio Catalyst: Manufacturing Update, Process Development
📰 This week on Next Investors
All the latest on PRL’s WA green hydrogen project - two major catalysts on the horizon
On Tuesday updated you on our 2021 Small Cap Pick of the Year, Province Resources (ASX:PRL).
PRL is seeking to develop its green hydrogen project in partnership with Total Eren, which is part owned and branded by TotalEnergies — one of world’s largest global energy supermajors, with a €100BN-plus market cap.
This comes right as the Prime Minister Scott Morrison proposed ~$140M in government funding into building the hydrogen industry in WA — a clear indication the Australian government now recognises the importance of domestic hydrogen production going into the future.
Last week we also saw PRL release its March quarterly report, updating shareholders on the progress of its HyEnergyTM green hydrogen development in WA’s Gascoyne region.
Importantly, PRL released its expected timeframes for key milestones, and what we think will be the the next major share price catalysts for the stock:
- Joint Development Agreement (JDA) with Total Eren, expected by 31 May
- Pre-Feasibility Study complete in the first half of 2023
We are primarily invested in PRL because of its partnership with Total Eren and listed the JDA being signed as a key objective for what we want to see PRL achieve in 2022 in our Investment Memo.
To check out the full 2022 PRL Investment Memo click here.
📰 Read the full breakdown: All the latest on PRL’s WA green hydrogen project - two major catalysts on the horizon
GAL has started RC drilling. We expect to see sulphides - but how much?
Our long term exploration Investment Galileo Mining (ASX:GAL) has commenced a 1,600m RC drilling program over high priority palladium-nickel targets that were identified during the last round of aircore drilling at its Norseman project.
GAL is targeting two prospects with the 1,600m RC drilling program:
- The sulphide intercepts made just beneath the already established 25.1mt cobalt/nickel resource at the “Mt Thirsty prospect”.
- The NEWLY identified prospect where the aircore rig clipped the top of a massive sulphide structure and where GAL found two overlapping EM conductors.
GAL expects the drilling program to run for around two weeks with assays expected in late May/ early June.
The drilling program will be following up targets generated by the first pass aircore drilling program which was completed at the back end of 2021. Specifically the target when GAL unexpectedly hit shallow massive sulphides that its air core (AC) drill rig could not penetrate at its Norseman Project.
After running EM surveys, GAL worked out that the massive sulphide intercept sat right in the middle of where two large and highly conductive EM targets meet. With drilling results expected in May/ early June, we are looking forward to what comes from this target specifically.
📰 Read the full breakdown: GAL has started RC drilling. We expect to see sulphides - but how much?
ALA on the Pathway to Phase I Clinical Trials
On Wednesday our biotech Investment, Arovella Therapeutics (ASX:ALA) ticked off a key milestone on the path to Phase I clinical trials, selecting Q-Gen Cell Therapeutics as the manufacturer for its lead cancer treatment.
With a long history of manufacturing similar products and accreditation with the Therapeutic Goods Administration, Q-Gen shapes up as the ideal partner to manufacture its highly specialised treatment for Phase I clinical trials.
ALA is one of only a handful of companies in the world working on an iNKT cell therapy for cancer.
This being an ‘off the shelf’ treatment, a breakthrough with technologies like this could deliver large returns for investors. We like to invest early in stocks like ALA as it can bring higher rewards, however these investments come with higher risk.
We expect that as ALA gets closer to its Phase I trials, there will be increased interest in the company.
With ALA trading at a market cap of ~$27M, it has plenty of room to re-rate into, especially given the valuations of its US peers in this space (MiNK US$80M market cap, Appia’s strategic partnership with Kite for US$875M).
📰 Read the full breakdown: ALA on the Pathway to Phase I Clinical Trials
In our other portfolios 🧬 🦉 🏹
🏹 Catalyst Hunter
PRM & GLV’s well is ranked amongst highest impact wells of 2022
On Friday, we put out an update on the two latest additions to our Catalyst Hunter portfolio, Prominence Energy (ASX:PRM) and Global Oil and Gas (ASX:GLV), who are now only a few weeks away from drilling one of the highest impact wells for 2022 globally.
The two companies have a combined 37.5% interest in the Sasanof Prospect located in the North West Shelf, offshore WA. The drilling program, now scheduled for mid-May, will look to prove out a prospective resource of 7.2 trillion cubic feet and 176 million barrels of condensate on a 2U basis (unrisked mid case).
In our note we did a deep dive on two of the six reasons we listed as the reasons for our investment in PRM and GLV. The focus of our note was on the following reasons:
- Reason no. 3 = Significant prospective resource - We look at the implications of having a large prospective resource and what it means to drill an oil & gas prospect this big.
- Reason no. 6 = Takeover target if a discovery is made - We considered what a success looks like and how oil and gas supermajors might become really interested in the project a successful discovery is made.
To see all six of the reasons why we invested in PRM and GLV, what we want to see from the upcoming drilling program, and the key risks to our investment thesis check out our 2022 PRM & GLV Investment Memo here.
📰 Read the full breakdown: PRM & GLV’s well is ranked amongst highest impact wells of 2022
GGE’s First Helium Well Happening this Month, More to Come
On Wednesday, our 2021 Catalyst Hunter Pick of the Year, Grand Gulf Energy (ASX:GGE) confirmed it had raised $11M @ 4.4c per share as it gears up to drill its maiden well at its helium project in a region of the USA dubbed the “Saudi Arabia” of helium.
Initially, GGE was aiming to raise ~$8M, but the amount was increased to accommodate for increased demand from both domestic/international institutions.
Generally, junior explorers are able to raise just enough funding to get a drilling program done, as investors like to see a discovery before committing serious amounts of capital. We think that the need to increase the raise to $11M to accommodate the interest in GGE is more recognition of the quality of GGE’s helium prospects.
With that added funding, GGE announced that optimisation work had been done on the upcoming Jesse #1 well design, allowing for the flow rate of the well to be tested at 3x the capacity of the initial well design.
GGE’s offtake partner Paradox Resources’ Lisbon helium production plant is one of only eight helium liquefiers in the US capable of producing high purity 99.9995% helium, which attracts premium pricing, currently of over US$1,000/mcf.
But due to a lack of local raw helium supply (which GGE can hopefully resolve), Paradox has been unable to restart the Liquefaction Plant.
In short, we think Paradox needs GGE’s helium and GGE is gearing up to be able to provide it (contingent on a successful discovery being made).
📰 Read the full breakdown: GGE’s First Helium Well Happening this Month, More to Come
🗣️ Quick Takes
NEW: We are now releasing our Quick Take opinions as they happen so you don't have to wait until the weekend to see them.
The links below will scroll you directly to the Quick Take related to the specific company listed.
Below is a list of all of this week's Quick Takes:
EMH, VUL, LRS: Elon Musk talks up lithium during Tesla earnings call
EMH, VUL, LRS: Honda to spend $40 billion on electric vehicle fleet
Have a great weekend,
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