mnb.jpg

Minbos Resources Ltd Limited

ASX:MNB

Last Price:

$0.130

Our Investment Summary

Date of
Initial Coverage

26-Aug-20

Initial
Entry Price

$0.030

Returns from
Initial Entry

333%



Investment Memo: Minbos Resources Ltd (ASX:MNB) - LIVE

Opened: 11-Mar-2022

Shares Held at Open: 4,895,000


What does MNB do?

Minbos Resources (ASX: MNB) is sitting on a large phosphate resource in Angola that has the potential to dramatically transform the country’s food security and crop yields.

Phosphate is a key ingredient in fertiliser, and MNB will mine the raw phosphate rock, then truck it to a major Angolan port via existing infrastructure.

At the port, it will be enhanced and sold as a blended product to agricultural distribution networks across the country.

What is the macro theme?

Fertilizer prices rose sharply in 2021 and food security is a major issue as supply chains get squeezed in the pandemic. In a broad-based commodities supercycle, phosphate prices are poised to go higher.

Why did we invest in MNB?

Phosphate prices rising means better DFS

With phosphate prices rising sharply in 2021-22, we expect the upcoming DFS to show improved project economics and eventually re-rate the share price.

Mine construction

The potential for MNB to begin mine construction in late 2022 is a big drawcard. We think that construction commencing would signal to the markets that MNB have gone from explorer to producer which could lead to the market valuing MNB as a far less risky and more established company.

Green ammonia optionality

MNB has recently committed to exploring green ammonia production potential in Angola utilising the ample access to cheap hydro power.

What do we expect MNB to deliver in 2022?

Objective #1: Definitive Feasibility Study and Project Financing

We want to see MNB deliver the DFS to better understand the economics of the project and help move MNB into the financing phase

Objective #2: Plant Construction and first production

  • With long lead items already ordered and the final environmental permitting expected to be lodged by the end of Q1-2022, we want to see construction commence at both its plant and mine.
  • We will be extremely happy if MNB shares a photo of the first bag of phosphate from the project in 2022, even if its from the commissioning or pre-production phase of the project build.

Objective #3: Offtake Agreements or supply MoUs

  • We expect this to be the next step after the DFS is delivered. We expect that as the company looks to source project financing and/or commences construction it will turn its focus to signing offtake agreements.
  • A great result for MNB will be if the offtake agreement is signed/underwritten by the Angolan government. The project was considered to be of “National Importance to Angola” by the government so we think this is a possibility.

Objective #4: Green Ammonia progress

We want to see MNB make some more progress with respect to outlining its Green Ammonia strategy. As part of this process we want to see MNB make progress with the sourcing of renewable energy power and to sign technology partnerships for the development of the plant.

What could go wrong?

Geographic risk

Whilst MNB has strong government support, there is always a risk of geopolitical instability in this part of Africa. There have been four coups in the last 4 years in the West Africa region. Geopolitical risks form a significant part of MNB’s overall risk profile.

Funding risk

MNB’s project is located in Angola which may make it difficult to attract financing with investors thinking the geopolitical risk is too high to make large CAPEX investments in the country. MNB is approaching a juncture where it will need to look to raise the full upfront CAPEX required to put its project into production which means this is another big part of the risk profile when investing in MNB.

Commodity pricing

Fertiliser prices could impact the economic viability of MNB’s project. MNB will also need to produce the fertiliser at a low cost to be able to attract interest from domestic purchasers who have for a long time avoided the usage of fertiliser due to affordability issues.

Building costs inflation

With construction costs globally increasing significantly over the last 12-24 months, MNB is at risk of being exposed to large cost overruns as it gets closer towards putting its project into development. Cost inflation may also impact project economics.

What is our investment plan?

We have been invested in MNB since August 2020, and in that time they have delivered many key milestones and the share price has experienced two sustained re-ratings.

MNB has been a very successful investment for us so far - we have a free carried position going into the construct and production phase per our plan with all our investments, and we expect further re-rates

Our plan is to hold our position into first production, if the share price nears our 1000% gain target we will likely sell another 20% of our position to take some profit.


Disclosure: The authors of this article and owners of Next Investors, S3 Consortium Pty Ltd, and associated entities, own 4,895,000 MNB shares at the time of publication and 1,562,500 MNB options. S3 Consortium Pty Ltd has been engaged by MNB to share our commentary on the progress of our investment in MNB over time.


Investment Milestones for MNB

Initial Investment @ 3c
Top Slice
Free Carry
Increase Investment @ 8c
Free Carry
Take Profit
✅ Price increases 300% from initial entry
✅ Price increases 500% from initial entry
🔲 Price increases 1000% from initial entry
12 Month Capital Gain Discount
🔲 Hold remaining Position for next 2+ years


Our Past Commentary on Minbos Resources Ltd

Date Title
30-Jul-2022 $ 0.120 What market crash? Phosphate used in batteries now?
29-Jul-2022 $ It’s phosphate - and MNB has a lot of it
02-Jul-2022 $ 0.135 Tax loss selling over, market back in August?
01-Jul-2022 $ MNB Signs MoU with technical partner for 300kmtpa Green Ammonia Plant
18-Jun-2022 $ 0.140 Raising cash in a rough market and what to watch out for
28-May-2022 $ 0.145 Share price moves on expected vs unexpected announcements
25-May-2022 $ Green-Hydrogen Ammonia is coming
21-May-2022 $ 0.130 Commodities super cycles
14-May-2022 $ 0.130 Small caps in a shocking market
12-May-2022 $ MNB Planning a Zero Carbon Green Ammonia Plant - Leveraging Angola’s Cheap Hydropower
18-Apr-2022 $ 0.150 Oil & gas crisis leads to record inflation
12-Apr-2022 $ Improved MNB DFS Due in Q3 on Record Fertiliser Prices
11-Apr-2022 $ 0.150 Why we invest in IPOs and our investment approach
12-Mar-2022 $ 0.160 Nickel, the War and Under Investment in Exploration
11-Mar-2022 $ Food security now a key global concern as fertiliser prices just keep rising
26-Feb-2022 $ 0.125 The War Begins, Cybersecurity, Food Security, Energy Independence and Precious Metals
21-Feb-2022 $ 0.135 Why we invest in Oil & Gas and Precious Metals
18-Dec-2021 $ 0.115 Investing 101: Taking Stock of your Stocks and Diversification
11-Dec-2021 $ 0.000 ASX rests pre-Chrsitmas as the market trades on very low volumes
27-Nov-2021 $ 0.155 New COVID strain, Santa Rally, Market Thoughts
06-Nov-2021 $ 0.180 COP26, Battery Metals, Green Energy
30-Oct-2021 $ 0.185 The fallout from the VUL short attack explained
25-Oct-2021 $ 0.200 Lockdown lifts, Two stocks to watch: MNB and ONE
20-Oct-2021 $ 0.180 Three stocks to watch for the next few weeks
16-Oct-2021 $ 0.155 Mainstream media casts a big spotlight on Green Hydrogen
02-Oct-2021 $ 0.130 Evergrand, Gold and Traditional Energy
18-Sep-2021 $ 0.140 Why uranium stocks are soaring, one good movie recommendation
13-Sep-2021 $ 0.130 Quick fire commentary on the six stocks making progress today
04-Sep-2021 $ 0.135 Annual Reports, Uranium and a Welcome to New Subscribers
28-Aug-2021 $ 0.105 Recap of the KNI IPO and share price run
21-Aug-2021 $ 0.095 Market fluctuations and portfolio news and quick takes
18-Aug-2021 $ 0.089 MNB’s Angola Fertiliser development “a Project of National Importance”
14-Aug-2021 $ 0.091 Bookmark it, a new Pick of the Year is coming next week
31-Jul-2021 $ 0.090 Quarterly Reporting Season and other news from our portfolio stocks
26-Jul-2021 $ 0.092 In Depth: Phosphate Price remains above highest predicted price in MNB’s scoping study
17-Jul-2021 $ 0.084 Cash is King, Gold Stocks and Enough of VUL and EMN
03-Jul-2021 $ 0.080 End of Financial Year, and what happened to 88E's share price?
26-Jun-2021 $ 0.067 June tax loss selling is behind us, KNI IPO expected in August
25-Jun-2021 $ 0.052 Phosphate Price Surges above Highest Prediction in MNB Scoping Study
12-Jun-2021 $ 0.065 What did our investments do this week? CPH, ONE, TMZ, 88E and more...
28-Apr-2021 $ 0.094 Zero Carbon Ammonia? What happened last night?
27-Apr-2021 $ 0.073 Our Portfolio Performance from January 1st to March 31st 2021
25-Mar-2021 $ 0.090 MNB: Licence Granted, Placement Digested
18-Feb-2021 $ 0.105 We Just Invested More in this Stock ... ... plus what's happening with VUL and EXR?
11-Feb-2021 $ 0.076 MNB Adopts Global ESG Standard while Phosphate Prices Surge
27-Jan-2021 $ 0.077 MNB “Seals the Deal” with Angolan Government
07-Jan-2021 $ 0.037 Our Stock Picks for 2021
14-Dec-2020 $ 0.038 The Most Undervalued Stock In Our Portfolio
11-Nov-2020 $ 0.040 EMERGENCY INFO: Read if you Invested in Minbos
26-Aug-2020 $ 0.040 Introducing Our Latest Portfolio Addition: $11M Capped ASX Stock Unlocking Food Security in Africa



Investor Presentation

Russian gas cuts threatening world ammonia & fertiliser supply

ASX:MNB Aug 05, 2022

Investment Memo: MNB IM-2022


This morning we saw the following interview between macro analyst Tony Greer and a digital chicken (Doomberg).

With reference to a Wall Street Journal article titled "Russian gas cuts threaten world's largest chemical hub", Greer made the following comments.

  • "You need natural gas to produce ammonia and energy to mine phosphate."
  • "You need phosphate and ammonia to produce fertiliser."
  • "You need fertiliser to grow food at scale."
  • "You need food to keep the peace."

Tony's comments come as a result of the impacts the European energy crisis is having on the German industrial sector, with a lack of access to affordable gas threatening to shut down supply chain critical manufacturing facilities.

The specific focus is on the BA SF (European chemicals conglomerate) owned chemicals plant in Germany, the biggest of its kind in the world and home to one of Europe's largest ammonia plants.

Globally, more than 90% of ammonia is produced from fossil fuels and, more specifically, natural gas.

So the specific issues being discussed are energy scarcity and a lack of gas supply threatening ammonia supply.

These are areas where we think our Investment in Minbos Resources (ASX: MNB) will succeed.

MNB is currently progressing towards the development of a phosphate (fertiliser) project while at the same time putting together a plan to build from the ground up a zero carbon ammonia plant.

The zero carbon factor is its primary positive differentiating factor as part of a move away from a reliance on fossil fuels and, more specifically, gas.

Having already secured cheap affordable zero carbon hydropower for its plant, we think MNB is positioning itself uniquely in a part of the economy where supply chain issues are only starting to bubble up to the surface.

We think that as the supply chain issues become more obvious, MNB's project will start to have implications globally and not just regionally in Africa.


First tranche of placement shares issued

ASX:MNB Jul 19, 2022 Announcement

Investment Memo: MNB IM-2022
Objective 1: Definitive Feasibility Study and Project Financing
Risk 1: Funding risk


Our fertiliser and green ammonia/hydrogen Investment Minbos Resources (ASX:MNB) just settled the first tranche of its recent $25M placement.

Today, we noticed that the company issued the first tranche of the placement with 131,414,473 shares issued to the investors who participated in the $25M placement at 11c per share.

The amount of shares issued today represents 25% of all of the company’s shares on issue (pre placement).

In the short term we expect this to increase the supply of shares on market as some of the investors who participated in the placement look to sell for a small profit, or simply decide to pull their cash out of the market.

With general market conditions being tough, investors may look to take some cash out of the markets due to changes to their personal circumstances, add to this the MNB share price trading above the level where these investors purchased at and the temptation to sell becomes stronger.

As with most share placements, we expect the share price to settle around or slightly below where the new shares where issued as some investors look to sell out of their positions.

We are also mindful of the second tranche of the placement (95,858,255 shares) which will be issued at some stage in August after shareholder approvals.

That second tranche is being issued to a syndicate of investors led by Hong Kong based Mr. Liang Feng who is the founder of Shanghai listed “Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology” which has a market cap of US$18 billion and is the world’s largest anode materials maker for lithium batteries

We suspect that this investment is a lot more strategic and expect there to be far less churn on that second batch of shares.

Nevertheless over the short term we expect to see more selling pressure after today’s share issue.


World's biggest phosphate exporter considering quotas

ASX:MNB Jul 18, 2022

Investment Memo: MNB IM-2022


Phosphate is a key ingredient used in fertiliser production. Without phosphate fertilisers, crop yields worldwide would be unable to keep up with agricultural demand.

To put it bluntly, global food supply chains need phosphate.

And China is moving quickly to curtail the supply of phosphate as an export product - with potentially far reaching consequences. The following Reuters article details how China makes up ~30% of global exports, and the move could have significant implications for the world's agriculture industry.

Read the full article here.

Below are our key takeaways:

  • China is expected to implement a quota system to limit exports of phosphates, a key fertiliser ingredient, in the second half of this year.
  • The quotas aim to reduce domestic food prices and protect food security while global fertiliser prices are hovering near record highs.
  • China is the world's biggest phosphate exporter, shipping 10 million tonnes/annum (~30% of global supply). Fertiliser analyst Gavin Ju (CRU Group) said the quotas were for ~3 million tonnes of phosphate in the second half of the year. That would mark a 45% drop from China's shipments of 5.5 million tonnes in the same period a year ago.
  • Analysts said that export restrictions would support high global prices, even as they weigh on demand and send buyers looking for alternative sources.

Our view is that with the world's biggest exporter of phosphate fertiliser products cutting back on exports, the need to diversify supply chains and seek alternate supply sources will become much more important.

China currently accounts for ~30% of global supply, so any reduction in exports will make the market even tighter than it already is and will increase prices.

The fallout from this is a potential global food security crisis.

We think the markets will eventually catch onto this, and capital will pour into potential new supply sources.

Our food security and green hydrogen/ammonia investment Minbos Resources (ASX: MNB) is developing its phosphate (fertiliser) project in Angola, alongside a green hydrogen/ammonia plant.

To see all of the key reasons we are Invested in MNB, what we want to see the company achieve in 2022, and the key risks to our Investment thesis, check out our 2022 MNB Investment Memo here.


BlackRock’s Larry Fink worried about food supply

ASX:MNB Jul 18, 2022

Investment Memo: MNB IM-2022


The world's biggest fund manager thinks it's food, not petrol, that is in for a real supply shock.

This Financial Times article shines a spotlight on the impacts of the fertiliser crunch on food prices around the world and the potential impact food price inflation could have on emerging market economies like those in Africa.

Read the full article here.

Below are our key takeaways:

  • BlackRock founder Larry Fink thinks that the preoccupation with the energy crisis has distracted investors from the more dangerous impacts of inflation in food prices.
  • Fink told the Financial Times, "We talk a lot about gasoline prices because that's what affects Americans, but the bigger issue is food," "Globally, the cost of fertiliser is up almost 100%, and that additional cost is reducing the amount of fertiliser used in farming".
  • The World Bank forecast that global food prices would rise 20% this year.
  • According to the African Development Bank, the impacts are especially bad for the African continent, which usually imports grain from Ukraine as well as produces its own food. Fertiliser prices in Africa have risen ~300%, and the continent is facing food shortages.

Putting aside all of the energy independence issues the world is facing right now, we think the markets are yet to catch onto just how significant the impacts of a global food crisis could be.

We are starting to see capital rotate into the energy industry.

The same can't be said of the world's food supply chains. With the Russia/Ukraine conflict contributing to a food security issue, the Financial Times article highlights just how big of an impact it is having on African food security.

The article highlights the need to look to alternate countries to fill the emerging food supply chain gaps.

This is where our Portfolio company Minbos Resources (ASX: MNB), fits in.

With its shovel ready phosphate (a key ingredient fertiliser ingredient) project in Angola and a proposed green hydrogen/ammonia project, MNB is looking to develop two projects that could help build out an agricultural industry in Angola and the broader Southern Africa region.

MNB is currently working towards a final investment decision on its phosphate (fertiliser) project, with the aim of having the project operational in 2023.

To see all the key reasons we are Invested in MNB, what we want to see the company achieve in 2022, and the key risks to our Investment thesis, check out our 2022 MNB Investment Memo here.


Strategic cooperation agreement signed with cornerstone investor

ASX:MNB Jul 12, 2022 Announcement

Investment Memo: MNB IM-2022
Investment Thesis 1: Green ammonia optionality
Objective 1: Green Ammonia progress


This morning our fertiliser and green ammonia/hydrogen Investment Minbos Resources (ASX:MNB) announced the signing of a strategic cooperation agreement.

The strategic cooperation agreement has been signed with the same group of investors that made a $15M cornerstone investment in MNB and the term sheet signed for a potential US$25M debt facility.

The syndicate is led by Hong Kong based Mr. Liang Feng who is also founder and chairman of Shanghai listed “Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology” which has a market cap of US$18 billion and is the world’s largest anode materials maker for lithium batteries.

The strategic cooperation agreement covers MNB’s green ammonia/hydrogen project as well as a commitment to explore opportunities in the “ferro phosphate” and “lithium ferro phosphate” space. The key details across both are as follows:

Green ammonia/hydrogen project:

  • Investigate the availability of up to 500MW hydropower for new green ammonia projects.
  • Evaluate/develop potential downstream ammonia products.
  • Complete feasibility studies on a large-scale Ammonia Project.
  • Identify, approach and secure financing to fund the CAPEX requirements for production facilities.
  • Assist with securing a suitable site for construction of the plant.
  • Secure customers and offtake arrangements for the Ammonia products
  • Assist with government relations and permitting during development process.
  • Provide phosphate feedstock under a long-term offtake agreement.

“Ferro phosphate” and “lithium ferro phosphate” (LFP Projects):

  • Identify, approach and secure technology/service providers + investment/offtake partners. Partner to collaborate on project feasibility.
  • MNB to commit to long term offtake for 100,000 tonnes per annum of high-grade phosphate rock at agreed market rates.

The significance of this agreement is that it has been signed with the same group of investors who will soon become major shareholders in MNB (after the $15M cornerstone investment shares are issued).

With a major shareholding in MNB, we think the group of investors will be incentivised to create shareholder value by bringing added downstream capabilities to MNB, both at its phosphate (fertiliser) project and its green ammonia/hydrogen project.


Non-binding term sheet signed for US$25M debt facility

ASX:MNB Jul 12, 2022 Announcement

Investment Memo: MNB IM-2022
Objective 1: Definitive Feasibility Study and Project Financing
Risk 1: Funding risk


This morning, our fertiliser and green ammonia/hydrogen Investment Minbos Resources (ASX:MNB) made more progress towards financing the development of its Angolan fertiliser & green ammonia/hydrogen projects.

In addition to a $25M capital raise, MNB also confirmed that a non-binding term sheet had been signed for a $25M debt facility.

The term sheet was signed with the same group of investors who cornerstoned the capital raise for a total of $15M (syndicate of investors led by the chairman of the world’s largest battery anode producer).

The term sheet is non-binding meaning the debt facility hasn’t been put in place as yet, this just means that MNB have interest from a group of financiers and should the company wish to take out the facility they can go back and negotiate a final agreement with them.

The specifics of the term sheet are set out in the announcement as follows:

  • Facility size: US$25 million available in tranches of US$5 million
  • Term: 5 years
  • Interest rate: Market interest rates with potential equity participation
  • Use of proceeds: CAPEX for MNB’s phosphate (fertiliser) project.
  • Conditions: MNB needs to complete a DFS, secure offtake agreements and the financiers have a right to complete due diligence.

The significance of this term sheet is that it encompasses most of the CAPEX requirements that MNB had estimated in its 2020 scoping study.

The 2020 scoping study had estimated that MNB’s phosphate (fertiliser) project could be put into production at a low upfront CAPEX cost of only US$22-28M.

Given that the debt facility covers US$25M and potential equity participation in the future, MNB now have a non-binding commitment from a group of investors.

With the non-binding term sheet backstopping its project, MNB confirmed in today’s announcement that MNB that a DFS is to be delivered and construction expected to begin Q3-2022.


$25M capital raise secured with $15M cornerstone investment

ASX:MNB Jul 12, 2022 Announcement

Investment Memo: MNB IM-2022
Objective 1: Definitive Feasibility Study and Project Financing
Risk 1: Funding risk


This morning our fertiliser and green ammonia/hydrogen Investment Minbos Resources (ASX:MNB) came out of a trading halt after completing a capital raise.

MNB managed to raise $25M via a placement at 11c per share with a $15M cornerstone investment from a syndicate of investors led by the chairman of the world’s largest battery anode producer.

The syndicate is led by Hong Kong based Mr. Liang Feng who is also founder and chairman of Shanghai listed “Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology” which has a market cap of US$18 billion and is the world’s largest anode materials maker for lithium batteries.

We also noticed that MNB’s directors and management team are also participating in the capital raise for a total of $845k.

We like seeing management teams that have skin in the game and see this as a vote of confidence from the managers leading our Investment in MNB.

The capital raise will see MNB issue a total of 227,272,728 shares split as follows:

  • 131,414,473 shares to be issued on the 20th of July 2022.
  • 95,858,255 shares to be issued after shareholder approvals in August.

In the short term, we expect to see the share price hold around the 11c per share level as some of the investors who participated in the capital raise are likely to sell on market and take their profits.

With the market looking a little fragile, we suspect there will be more of these type investors than we are otherwise used to seeing.

That being said, we think the big glowing positive from today’s announcement is that MNB was able to raise this much capital in an otherwise tough market.

For us, this level of funding underlines the serious potential that MNB’s fertiliser and green ammonia/hydrogen projects have.


Bill Gates backs start-up for hydrogen storage & transportation

Jul 06, 2022

Macro: Hydrogen


The following Bloomberg article looks at a Bill Gates backed investment in the hydrogen mobility space.

Read the full article here.

Below are our key takeaways from the article:

  • A key part of having hydrogen form part of the global energy mix is to find a way to store and transport it effectively.
  • Spanish startup H2Site is aiming to do this and just secured €12.5M in investments from Bill Gates-led Breakthrough Energy Ventures, French utility Engie SA and Norwegian oil giant Equinor ASA.
  • Current existing methods to store and transport hydrogen are expensive, especially when compared to gas storage/transportation.
  • H2Site aims to find technological solutions to use existing natural-gas pipelines to move hydrogen by diluting natural gas with ~30% hydrogen before being recovered using H2SITE’s filter where it needs to be consumed. The process would use a palladium alloy with the aim of filtering hydrogen at 99.9% purity from a pipe carrying between 5% and 30% hydrogen.
  • Another technology being focused on is transportation via ships within ammonia and methanol. The aim being that projects like the ones in Australia where hydrogen is converted into ammonia then transported using ships could then have hydrogen recovered by undoing the chemical reaction after shipping is completed.

In summary, the article speaks to the volume of capital pouring into the downstream technologies that are required to build up a sound and efficient hydrogen supply chain.

For hydrogen to become a part of the energy mix the infrastructure required to produce, transport and then consume it all needs to be developed to the standards of current energy technologies.

With institutional capital and big names like Bill Gates now making investments into the hydrogen space we think it is a matter of WHEN not IF for the hydrogen sector.

Historically, our best performing Investments have come from industries where we have Invested well ahead of institutional capital arriving on the scene. Our Investments in the green hydrogen space are no different.

The following companies held in our Portfolio provide exposure to an industry that we think is on the cusp of exponential growth:

Province Resources (ASX: PRL)

  • Feasibility stage, green hydrogen, WA (Australia)

Elixir Energy (ASX: EXR)

  • Scoping stage, green hydrogen, Mongolia

Minbos Resources (ASX: MNB)

  • Scoping stage, green hydrogen/ammonia, Angola


Solutions being sought for the food crisis in Africa

ASX:MNB Jul 04, 2022

Investment Memo: MNB IM-2022


The following Bloomberg article highlights the impacts of the Russia/Ukraine conflict on the food crisis issue across Africa.

Read the full article here.

Key takeaways:

  • 49 million people in 43 countries are facing famine, according to the head of the United Nations World Food Program, David Beasley.
  • Global food prices surged to a record after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted grain and vegetable oil exports.
  • Grains shortages have driven up prices, with global benchmarks for wheat and corn rising 22% and 12% respectively this year.
  • Food costs account for 40% of consumer spending in sub-Saharan Africa, compared with 17% in advanced economies.
  • In 2020, Africa imported $4 billion of agricultural products from Russia - 90% of that was wheat. Another $2.9 billion of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, barley and soy came from Ukraine, according to Sihlobo.
  • Data also shows that Eritrea and Somalia were almost entirely dependent on Russia and Ukraine for their wheat supplies last year, while Tanzania, Namibia and Madagascar relied on them for more than 60% of supplies.

The article discusses the political viewpoint on the food crisis and brings home just how big of an issue is facing Africa when it comes to food security.

This is where our Portfolio company Minbos Resources (ASX: MNB) fits in.

With its shovel ready phosphate (a key ingredient in producing the fertilisers) project in Angola, MNB could bring into production a project that helps build out an agricultural industry that can alleviate the reliance on agricultural imports across Africa.

MNB is currently working towards a final Investment decision on its project, with the aim of having the project operational in 2023.

To see all of the key reasons we are Invested in MNB, what we want to see the company achieve in 2022, and the key risks to our Investment thesis, check out our 2022 MNB Investment Memo here.


Bill Gates “Green hydrogen would be massive for clean energy”

Jul 04, 2022

Macro: Hydrogen


Investment Memo: PRL 2022, EXR 2022, MNB 2022

General: Macro


The following LinkedIn post from Bill Gates shines the spotlight on green hydrogen as a technology solution for a transition towards cleaner fuel sources.

Read the LinkedIn post here.

When major investors start to talk up a particular technology it is generally a leading indicator for massive institutional capital flows into the sector. And Gates is not just a commentator, but an investor in renewable energy and the transition towards lower emission fuel sources.

(Here is an article on one of Gates’ latest ventures in the space: Bill Gates-Led Fund Backs Startup With Cheaper Way to Move Hydrogen)

For a long time institutional investors have avoided making large scale investments into the green hydrogen space, but that now looks to be changing extremely rapidly.

Historically, our best performing Investments have come from industries where we have Invested well ahead of institutional capital arriving on the scene.

Our Investments in the green hydrogen space are no different. We tend to agree with Bill Gates, that green hydrogen has a place in the transition towards clean energy technologies.

The following companies held in our Portfolio provide exposure to an industry that we think is on the cusp of exponential growth:

Province Resources (ASX: PRL)

  • Feasibility stage, green hydrogen, WA (Australia)

Elixir Energy (ASX: EXR)

  • Scoping stage, green hydrogen, Mongolia

Minbos Resources (ASX: MNB)

  • Scoping stage, green hydrogen/ammonia, Angola


Investor presentation - Green hydrogen-ammonia in Angola

ASX:MNB Jun 15, 2022 Announcement


Investment Memo: MNB 2022

General: Investor presentation


Yesterday our long term Investment Minbos Resources (ASX:MNB) released a fresh new investor presentation based solely on its green hydrogen-ammonia project.

We still feel the market is yet to fully catch on to the potential here especially given that Angola is known to have the second cheapest energy costs in the world with an abundance of zero carbon Hydroelectric power capacity.

We feel this uniquely positions MNB in the right place at the right time to get a project like this off the ground.

We did a deep dive into MNB’s green hydrogen-ammonia ambitions in our last MNB note, which can be read here: Green-Hydrogen Ammonia is coming

Also check out the investor presentation released yesterday by clicking on the image below.


War in Ukraine - is it creating a global food crisis?

ASX:MNB May 19, 2022


Investment Memo: MNB 2022

Macro Theme: Food Security


The Economist put out this video which looks at the impacts the Russia/Ukraine conflict is having on food supply chains globally.

Key takeaways from the Economist video:

  • Odessa is the most important port in Ukraine with ~90% of Ukrainian exports going through Odessa and Mauripol. Farmers are worried about how they can get the crop out of the country and into export markets.
  • ~80% of Egypt’s and ~70% of Congo’s grain comes from Russia/Ukraine. Globally ~800m people almost exclusively depend on Russia/Ukraine exports.
  • Russia is a major energy and fertiliser exporter, but supply chain issues are resulting in cost escalations which will mean farmers are unable to produce as much as they would in the past and in turn crop yields will fall.

It’s clear that securing food supply chains is not something that is likely to be fixed in the next few weeks. The world needs to look to alternate countries to fill in the gaps that are emerging in food supply chains.

This is where our food security Investment Minbos Resources (ASX: MNB) fits in.

With its shovel ready phosphate (a key ingredient in producing the fertilisers) project in Angola our Investment is working towards a final Investment decision on its project, with the aim of having the project operational in 2023.

To see all of the key reasons we are Invested in MNB, what we want to see the company achieve in 2022, and the key risks to our Investment thesis, check out our 2022 MNB Investment Memo here.


India bans wheat exports, food security now a global issue

ASX:MNB May 16, 2022


Investment Memo: MNB 2022

Macro Theme: Global Food Security


Over the weekend Bloomberg reported that India had banned wheat exports. Here are our key takeaways from the article and how it relates to our food security Investment Minbos Resources (ASX: MNB):

Read full article here

Key takeaways:

  • The Russia/Ukraine war has meant that logistics in the Black Sea region (Which accounts for ~ ¼ of all wheat trade) has been disrupted, India was expected to step in and fill in this gap.
  • The Indian government has stated that national food security is priority number one.
  • The German government also commented on the export ban with the agricultural minister saying “If we all started imposing these export limits, or even closed down markets, that just makes the crisis worse”.

All of this means that the world needs to invest in food security projects ranging from fertiliser to direct agriculture all around the world in different locations. This is where MNB fits in.


African Development Bank considering $1b funding for agriculture

ASX:MNB Apr 22, 2022


The African Development Bank is working on a $1 billion emergency facility to support governments and farmers who are facing challenges brought about by rising fertiliser prices.

The funding was covered in the following news piece, “AfDB mulls $1bn emergency facility to tackle rising prices of fertiliser“.

African Development Bank’s director Mr Martin Fregene explained in the article that, “Rural infrastructure like storage and rural roads is what we need our countries to fix. The reason why Africa turns to Russia and Ukraine to buy cheap wheat and maize, is that our local production is not competitive”.

Fregene also told the media that the African Development Bank was considering tapping ~$1 billion in emergency funding facilities to ease the pressure on rising fertiliser prices by supporting governments and farmers.

Our African food security investment Minbos Resources (ASX: MNB) is sitting on a large phosphate resource in Angola that has the potential to dramatically transform the African continent's food security and crop yields.

MNB is currently completing a Definitive Feasibility Study that is expected to be completed in Q3 of this year. This will include updated figures from its 2020 Scoping Study, which already demonstrated that MNB’s project economics were robust enough to move forward with development.

The 2020 Scoping Study used a US$357-482 per tonne phosphate price (MAP price), which gave the following project economics:

  • Post-tax NPV of US$191-308M (A$260-420M).
  • Low upfront CAPEX of US$22-28M (A$30-38M).
  • 21 year mine life.

Fertiliser prices are now trading at multiples of the US$357-482/t figures MNB used in its Scoping Study.

Prices are now above US$1,200/t, which we suspect will increase the attractiveness of the project for financiers.

Given the CAPEX requirements are not high, MNB is moving forward with the development of the project, concurrently with the DFS. MNB’s plant commissioning is still on track for H1 2023.

With the African Development Bank now recognising something needs to be done to secure African food supplies, the macro tailwinds for MNB continue to get stronger.

To see all of the reasons why we continue to hold MNB in our portfolio, what we want to see the company achieve for the rest of 2022 and the key risks to our investment thesis, check out our 2022 MNB Investment Memo here.


Fertiliser prices up further, MNB plant design finalised

ASX:MNB Apr 04, 2022


Our fertiliser and food security investment, Minbos Resources (ASX:MNB) is poised to benefit from elevated fertiliser prices.

CEO of MNB, Lindsay Reed, commented on the price moves and what that means for the company on LinkedIn:

Like many other commodities, fertiliser has seen prices rise on the back of supply chain disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine. Russia was the world’s top exporter of fertilisers in 2019 and is a key supplier of urea and potash.

Based in Angola, Minbos Resources is putting the pieces in place for a low cost, high return (IRR) phosphate project.

With production slated to begin in the first half of 2023, we think MNB could play a critical role in food security for southern Africa.

Below is breakdown of the economics of MNB’s phosphate project:

For a quick high level summary of why we invested in MNB, key objectives, risks and our investment plan - here’s our MNB Investment Memo.

What’s next: Rising fertiliser prices will improve the economics of MNB’s project, and we are expecting a definitive feasibility study (DFS) and a final investment decision in the coming months.


Fertiliser prices moving higher off the back of Ukraine/Russia

ASX:MNB Mar 23, 2022


Overnight we saw reports from the Guardian and CNBC highlighting the impact the Russia/Ukraine conflict is having on the prices for the raw materials that are used in the supply chain for fertiliser markets.

The three types of fertilisers are:

  • Nitrogen fertiliser (Ammonia based) - Prices are up almost 400% from 2020 levels, MNB are working on this.
  • Phosphorus fertiliser - Prices are up almost 300% from 2020 levels, MNB are working on this.
  • Potassium fertiliser -

The standout for us was the impact the conflicts in Ukraine/Russia is having on nitrogen fertiliser prices which is an ammonia based fertiliser. With almost all of the ammonia used in nitrogen fertilisers being produced using natural gas, the recent increases in the price of gas (mostly because of supply chain scares out of Russia) has put some serious tailwinds behind the price of nitrogen fertilisers.

This is a key reason for our investment in MNB. MNB’s phosphate fertiliser project is nearing development and this is complemented by plans to build a hydro-powered ammonia plant to produce zero carbon ammonia (used to produce nitrogen fertiliser) in Angola (which has the second cheapest source of of energy because of an abundance of underutilised hydropower).

MNB is in the final stages of developing its project at just the right time, with the potential to supply competitive, zero carbon fertiliser products to both Africa and the rest of the world.

To see all of the reasons why we invested in MNB, and what we want the company to achieve in 2022, check out our 2022 Investment Memo here.


All-in podcast highlights food shortage risks

ASX:MNB Mar 21, 2022


The latest episode of one of our favourite podcasts dropped over the weekend (All-in podcast E72: Impact of sanctions, deglobalization, food shortage risks, macroeconomic outlook and more).

Discussed from ~15:21 onwards is how the sanctions on Russia and disruption to the global agricultural supply chain is placing the world at risk of food shortages in the coming years.

The key takeaway was the heightened risks to the food supply chains. And as investors in MNB, we found the podcast particularly interesting.

Scientist and investor David Friedberg lays out the three types of fertiliser needed to grow the world’s food and how supply chains for all three are being impacted by geopolitical tensions/sanctions. The three types of fertiliser are:

  • Nitrogen fertiliser (Ammonia based) - MNB are working on this.
  • Phosphorus fertiliser - MNB are working on this.
  • Potassium fertiliser

He also touches on how the prices of all three of these have shot up in recent months with Russia being a key supplier and placing restrictions on exports to the rest of the world as it tries to safeguard its food supplies.

What really stood out to us was Friedberg’s take on the price of nitrogen fertilisers. He mentioned that with almost all of the world’s nitrogen fertilisers being produced using natural gas, and the price of gas now almost double where it was last year, the costs of these nitrogen based fertilisers have become out of reach for some farmers.

This is why we are invested in MNB. Its phosphate fertiliser project is nearing development and it has plans to build a hydro-powered ammonia plant to produce zero carbon ammonia (used to produce nitrogen fertiliser).

Angola has the world’s second cheapest source of energy so our investment MNB is perfectly positioned to establish alternative sources of supply when the world most desperately needs it.

To see all of the reasons why we invested in MNB, and what we want the company to achieve in 2022, check out our 2022 Investment Memo here.


Madagascan rare earths divestment completed

ASX:MNB Mar 08, 2022


On Tuesday, MNB announced the divestment of its interests in its Madagascan rare earths project.

MNB’s interests in the project at the moment is an exclusive option agreement that was signed in 2018 which gave MNB the right to acquire up to a 90% interest in the project.

MNB’s divestment comes as the sale of this option (exclusive right to acquire that 90%) for a total consideration of $2.48M contingent on due diligence being completed.

The acquirer (ALS Hong Kong) has ~8 months to complete this due diligence and needs to exercise the option before the 7th of November 2022.

The payments to MNB will be $10,000 per month for that 8 month period and a $2.4M cash payment if the option is exercised by ALS Hong Kong.

This divestment means MNB can focus more capital towards the development of its Angolan fertiliser project. We will be releasing our 2022 Investment Memo for MNB very soon where we will set some expectations for what we want to see MNB achieve in 2022.


Food security now a global concern

ASX:MNB Mar 07, 2022


Another fallout from the Russia/Ukraine conflict is with respect to global food supplies as covered by major news outlet Al Jazeera.

Russia and Ukraine supply a third of the world's wheat, which is now trading at 14-year high prices. More importantly though, countries are realising that food supplies are now just as susceptible to supply chain disruptions.

The key takeaway from the coverage in this news report was that the Middle East and Africa were most susceptible to these shortfalls as other exporters look to protect domestic supplies.

This is where MNB fits in, with its phosphate project in Angola, MNB is building a nutrient supply and distribution business that stimulates food security in Angola and the broader Congo Basin.

MNB’s project in August was considered a ‘Project of National Importance to Angola” by the Angolan government, with all of the developments of late we think the project is now significantly more important.