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And what is Next for our Investments?

Published 22-JUN-2024 16:04 P.M.


14 minute read

Just five more trading days left in June...

A total of ~35 hours of open market horrors of “June tax loss selling” for small cap investors to endure.


Could this be that glorious week towards the end of June when bargain hunting buyers outweigh the tax loss sellers?

It sure looked like it yesterday.

We thought that this year in June most people would NOT be sitting on any material capital gains, so the tax loss selling to offset gains would be minimal.


“Sell in May and go away” didn’t stick to the script in 2024 and instead provided a buoyant small cap environment with many winners.

Nobody expected it.

May was such a great month in the broader small cap market.

It reminded people of why they ever got into investing in small cap stocks.

After a long time between drinks, many probably took the buoyant conditions, liquidity and rising share prices to lock in some capital gains.

Hence why we think June tax loss selling ramped up in the first weeks of June.

(And it certainly hasn’t been nearly as bad this year as the two tax loss Junes in 2023 and 2022.)

Last weekend we reminded ourselves of our failed 2023 prediction, that after June 2023 tax loss selling finished the small cap market would roar back during the second half of 2023...

We were wrong.

Or maybe we were just a year too early with our prediction...

We think the next six months of 2024 is going to be positive and buoyant for small caps.


For the same reasons we incorrectly predicted it in 2023.

But the signs this year are stronger.

An analogy is like looking at a small cap stock chart that keeps creeping up every day, more and more, and the sell side is thinning.

Sometimes you are watching a stock and looking at the chart thinking “this looks like it’s going to pop”.

We think the first bullish May we have seen in many years is the first sign that the small cap market actually wants to come back...

June tax loss selling is a short term hiccup.

And we are counting down the days to July.

Again, we are betting that the second half of 2024 will be a very good time for small cap stocks.

So while we wait for July to roll around (and hopefully our prediction of a buoyant small cap market is correct), here is a list of a few of our stocks that have big news scheduled for some time in the next two months.

Hopefully lobbing in positive news into bullish, risk-on small cap market conditions.

Elixir Energy (ASX:EXR)

What does EXR do? EXR is advancing a Queensland onshore gas project

What’s next for EXR? Flow testing of all target zones planned for July/August.

Why it matters: East coast gas supplies are in a pickle and the Australian federal government is making gas a key pillar of the energy transition - a successful flow test here would move EXR’s project closer to commercialisation at a time where the country desperately needs more natural gas.

Read our EXR Investment Memo

TrivarX (ASX:TRI)

What does TRI do? TRI is an AI-driven mental health technology company seeking to commercialise objective measures to aid in the early detection and screening of mental health conditions, such as depression.

What’s next for TRI? TRI is currently conducting a Phase 2 trial in the US on its AI algorithm for detecting current Major Depressive Episode (cMDE) with completion of the Phase 2 SAMDE study expected in the next few weeks, and results to be announced shortly after.

Why it matters: Good results will improve the companies prospects ahead of meetings with US FDA ahead of what we hope is a successful De Novo application allowing TRI’s novel AI driven algorithm to enter the market.

Read our TRI Investment Memo

Genmin (ASX:GEN)

What does GEN do? GEN is a green iron ore developer aiming to put its Gabon iron ore project into production.

What’s next for GEN? Binding offtake agreement and/or financing update.

Why it matters: We want to see GEN become an iron ore producer, and a binding offtake agreement and/or a financing agreement would move it closer to achieving that goal. GEN reckons they will be producing iron ore in ~12 months.

Read our GEN Investment Memo

Sun Silver (ASX:SS1)

What does SS1 do: SS1 is a silver-gold explorer and developer with a 292M ounce silver equivalent JORC resource in Nevada, USA.

What’s next for SS1? Finalise drill targets + announce a drilling plan and then drill.

Why it matters: SS1 is aiming to grow an already very large silver resource with this drilling - a large resource will make any feasibility studies better and move SS1 closer to becoming a mine.

Read our SS1 Investment memo

Mithril Resources (ASX:MTH)

What does MTH do? MTH is a high-grade gold-silver explorer and developer in Mexico.

What’s next for MTH? Drill results from 4,000m program

Why it matters: MTH has a stated aim of doubling its resource of 373k ounces gold and ~11m ounces of silver. The gold grade for the resource is 4.8g/t and silver grades at 141g/t silver. Both extremely high relative to other gold/silver projects in the market.

Read our MTH Investment memo

Condor Energy (ASX:CND)

What does CND do?: CND holds an 80% interest in a massive offshore oil & gas exploration project in Peru.

What’s next for CND? Reprocessing of 3D seismic across its targets in Peru.

Why it matters: It will further firm up CND’s targets across the massive ~4,858km^2 project which has already seen energy supermajor TotalEnergies move in next door.

Read our CND Investment memo

Inoviq (ASX:IIQ)

What does IIQ do? IIQ is a biotech company that is developing and commercialising an exosome technology platform for breast cancer, ovarian cancer and neurodegenerative disease (Alzheimer’s) diagnostics as well as a solid tumour (breast cancer) therapy.

What’s next for IIQ? Laboratory partner for SubB2M tests, exosome diagnostic agreement

Why it matters: IIQ’s SubB2M test for breast cancer has been shown to be more accurate than the incumbent test in the market and we think this makes it amenable to commercialisation and a lab partner for the breast cancer test and ovarian cancer test would be a good first step while we wait for further advancements across its exosome tech platform.

Read our IIQ Investment Memo

Arovella Therapeutics (ASX:ALA)

What does ALA do? ALA is a preclinical biotech research company seeking to develop an off-the-shelf cancer cell therapy treatment - part of the broader field of cancer immunotherapy.

What’s next for ALA? Progressing to engineering and GMP batches to produce material for its upcoming Phase 1 trial on its cell therapy for blood cancer.

Why it matters: Last major hurdle before moving to release a clinical trial plan and getting ethics approval - then its full steam ahead into becoming a “clinical stage” biotech and we hope attracting interest from large pharmaceutical and biotech companies.

Read our ALA Investment memo

Minbos (ASX:MNB)

What does MNB do? MNB is seeking to build high-margin phosphate fertiliser supply business with the potential to dramatically transform Angola’s food security and crop yields.

MNB is also seeking to develop a green hydrogen/ammonia business powered by cheap hydro-electric power that would cut the reliance on natural gas in producing ammonia, also located in Angola.

What’s next for MNB? Funding for the remainder of CAPEX on the fertiliser project

Why it matters: Would enable MNB to become a producer, which would make MNB the first producer we’ve ever held in our Portfolio.

Read our MNB Investment memo

Pantera Minerals (ASX:PFE)

What does PFE do? PFE is a micro cap lithium brine exploration and development company which is operating in the Smackover Formation in South West Arkansas, USA.

The Smackover Formation is home to large lithium companies such as Standard Lithium, Albemarle as well as oil giant, Exxon Mobil - which are all investing large amounts of money, seeking to produce lithium from this area.

What’s next for PFE? Re enter historical oil wells to test lithium grades in underground brines

Why it matters: This would allow PFE to release a maiden JORC resource at a time when the US is getting serious about securing domestic supply of lithium. We think the Smackover is an excellent location for DLE lithium production - we’ve visited it. PFE could be timing its run well with development of the asset to come, pending a successful well re-entry program.

Read our PFE Investment Memo

Kuniko (ASX:KNI)

What does KNI do? KNI holds a portfolio of battery metals exploration assets (copper, nickel, and cobalt) in Norway. It is now primarily focussed on a nickel-copper-cobalt resource.

What’s next for KNI? Drilling results from diamond drilling program (Q2-3 2024)

Why it matters: We’re hoping for an upgraded resource, which could be improved further by recent EM conductor work, which we hope leads to big drill targets for the next campaign.

Read our KNI Investment Memo

Titan Minerals (ASX:TTM)

What does TTM do? TTM is an exploration and development company on the hunt for world class gold, silver and copper assets in Ecuador.

What’s next for TTM? Upgrade of Dynasty Resource. Gina copper JV becomes binding.

Why it matters: Gina Rinehart recently got involved with TTM via a subsidiary of Hancock Prospecting, called Hanrine. As part of the deal, US$2M gets paid to TTM when the deal becomes binding, the remainder of the US$118M gets spent on exploration and development.

This excludes the Dynasty Resource - which has a huge 3.1M ounces of gold and 22M ounces of silver. A material resource upgrade from Dynasty would further underpin TTM’s valuation at a time of strong market sentiment for gold and silver.

Read our TTM Investment Memo

Global Uranium and Enrichment (ASX:GUE)

What does GUE do? GUE is a uranium explorer and developer with projects across four uranium districts in the USA & Canada. GUE also has a cornerstone stake in a uranium enrichment technology company.

What’s next for GUE? Exploration drilling at Maybell project.

Why it matters: We want to see GUE grow its U pounds in the ground across its projects and if GUE can hit some good grades at the Maybell project in the US we think this would be well received in the market given the pressing need that the US has for domestically sourced uranium following a ban on Russian uranium imports.

Read our GUE Investment Memo

Mandrake Resources (ASX:MAN)

What does MAN do? MAN is advancing a lithium brine project located in the Paradox Basin, Utah USA.

What’s next for MAN? Re enter historical oil wells to test lithium grades in underground brines

Why it matters: This would allow MAN to release a maiden JORC resource at a time when the US is getting serious about securing domestic supply of lithium.

Read our MAN Investment Memo

GTi Resources (ASX:GTR)

What does GTR do? GTR is an exploration company building out significant resources of uranium in Wyoming, USA.

What’s next for GTR? Drilling the Lo Herma uranium deposit in Wyoming in July

Why it matters: If GTR does well at Lo Herma - we think the company could potentially triple the resource size at a time when the US is desperate for new uranium supply. Wyoming is the traditional heartland of US uranium production and there are mine restarts happening in close proximity to GTR’s projects. This should only benefit GTR as it looks to advance its uranium projects at a time of robust macro sentiment for nuclear power and domestically sourced uranium in the US.

Read our GTR Investment Memo

Now we just wait for July to roll around...

What we wrote about this week

Sun Silver (ASX:SS1)

Sun Silver has announced ultra high-grade silver intercepts from historic drill cores in their Nevada project.

With their current 292 Moz silver equivalent, these findings could significantly expand their resource.

The upcoming drill program aims to validate these high grade zones and increase their JORC resource size.

With silver prices near 12 year highs, SS1 is well positioned to contribute to growing demand.

Read: SS1 finds a 6,216 g/t silver intercept. High grade target zone identified. Drilling starting in weeks...

Haranga Resources (ASX:HAR)

Our Uranium Investment Haranga Resources (ASX:HAR) has upgraded 37% of its 16-million-pound uranium resource in Senegal from “inferred” to “indicated,” enhancing confidence in the deposit and its development potential.

With a headline grade of 752ppm, this upgrade in resource is crucial for attracting investors.

Recent RC drilling has identified promising targets, with further exploration planned.

Read: HAR moves more uranium resource into “indicated” category as uranium price remains high

Kuniko (ASX:KNI)

Our Nickel Investment Kuniko (ASX:KNI) has identified new exploration targets at its Ertelein project in Norway.

KNI has used Electromagnetic Surveys, revealing large conductors near its existing JORC nickel-copper-cobalt resource.

These targets may lead to significant drill campaigns, as KNI aims to develop a major European battery metals asset from the strong demand for locally sourced critical minerals.

Read: KNI: EM conductors light up - the hunt for high grades at Ertelien begins

Quick Takes

NTI Completes Two Year Milestone for Phase I/II trial for Autism

TG1 Announces Surprising Assay Results from Ida Valley Project

EXR Provides Update on Operations at Daydream-2 Project

SS1 Commences Geophysics in Maverick Springs

EMD Selected for New PTSD Treatment Study

TRI with Significant Update on their Phase 2 Clinical Trial

LYN Announces Heritage Survey announced for West Arunta

Bite sized summaries of the latest mainstream news in battery metals, biotechs, uranium etc:

Macro News - What we are reading

Battery Metals:

Europe's automakers fret as China EV tariff fears become reality (Reuters)

  • The EU's new tariffs on Chinese EVs could spark a trade war, hurting European automakers' business in China and their imports of Chinese-made cars.
  • German automakers like BMW, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz are particularly vulnerable due to their significant sales in China.
  • Chinese automakers plan to build cars in Europe to avoid tariffs, while Europe's auto industry remains reliant on Chinese components for EVs.


China economy: Copper glut soars in sign of stuttering recovery (AFR)

  • Chinese warehouses hold 330,000 tonnes of copper, the largest glut in four years, due to weak demand and high prices.
  • The build-up is driven by China's real estate downturn and sluggish manufacturing.
  • Despite low global inventories, new smelter capacity in several countries may increase supply and cause price volatility.


US to end tariff exemption on Chinese graphite anodes (Fastmarkets)

  • The US ended the 25% tariff exemption on Chinese graphite anodes to diversify its supply chain.
  • China's export controls and intermediary trade could lessen the impact on exports.
  • Chinese producers are setting up plants overseas, but geopolitical tensions add uncertainty.

Graphite buyers are willing to pay IRA premium (Fastmarkets)

  • Westwater aims to establish a North American battery-grade graphite business to reduce reliance on Chinese supply dominance.
  • Their approach emphasises environmental benefits by avoiding hydrofluoric acid in production.
  • US tariffs on Chinese EVs and upcoming tariffs on natural graphite support Westwater's strategic goals.


Serbia set to give green light to Rio Tinto lithium mine (Financial Times)

  • Serbia plans to greenlight Rio Tinto's Jadar lithium mine, Europe's largest, after resolving environmental concerns.
  • President Vučić anticipates economic benefits and EU-backed investments in battery manufacturing and electric vehicles.
  • The project's revival signifies Serbia's geopolitical stance amid global economic alignments.


Gold and silver emerging as pick of the menu for FY25 (Resource Rising Stars)

  • China's property sector struggles are pressuring iron ore and copper prices due to oversupply.
  • Political uncertainties in the U.S. and Europe are adding to market volatility.
  • ANZ Bank predicts gold prices to rise to $2500/oz by year-end, driven by potential U.S. interest rate cuts.


Nuclear power: Uranium explorers powered by short supply, nuclear renaissance (AFR)

  • Uranium explorers raised $323.22 million in the March quarter, benefiting from high prices and increased interest in nuclear energy.
  • Paladin Energy and Peninsula Energy were top fundraisers, reflecting strong investor confidence in uranium projects.
  • Despite market challenges, uranium sector momentum remains robust globally.

Have a great weekend,

Next Investors

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