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Oneview Healthcare plc

(ASX:ONE)


 

  Our Initial Entry
Price

Portfolio Initiation

5 Day VWAP
After Initiation

Current Price

Our Current Returns

ASX:ONE
$0.060
$0.140
Mar 12 2021
$0.182
$0.230
    283%

ASX:ONE
Our Current Returns
283%


Investment Memo: Oneview Healthcare (ASX:ONE)

What we want to see from our investment in ONE during 2022

13th Jan 2022


This investment memo is a short, high level summary of why we continue to hold ONE and what we expect the company to deliver in 2022. The purpose is to record our current thinking as a benchmark to assess the company's performance against our expectations 12 months from now.


What does ONE do?

Oneview Healthcare (ASX:ONE) is a health tech company that provides hospital patients a “virtual care and digital control centre” at their bedside. ONE’s products are cloud-hosted patient dashboards that help make hospitals more efficient and patients more engaged in their own care.

What is the macro theme behind ONE?

The pandemic has rapidly accelerated the trend towards healthcare modernisation, and we believe any product or service that brings efficiency to healthcare systems will be highly sought after. As big tech companies like Google, Amazon and Microsoft look to enter the health tech space, companies with an early-mover advantage should thrive or become takeover targets in their own right.

Why do we continue to hold ONE in 2022?

  • Proven tech, liked by customers: ONE is moving into the growth stage having proven out its tech products in a hard to enter sector (hospitals).
  • $20M capital injection to fund rapid growth: ONE completed a capital raise late in 2021 and with a war chest to fund its growth we look forward to ONE becoming cash flow positive and quickly increasing the number of contracted beds it has in the US.
  • Under promise, over deliver: ONE’s management team has delivered everything they said they would since we invested, so we are confident they will hit their revenue projections and US market share objectives in 2022.

What do we expect the company to deliver in 2022?

Objective #1: Fast revenue growth and contracted beds in excess of 15,000. For ONE, ‘contracted beds’ is like an ‘active user’ metric for a tech company. We think this will be the basis for judging ONE’s success in 2022. More contracted beds = more revenue. We want to see ONE hit a total of 15,000 in 2022, primarily out of the USA.

Objective #2: Increased sales/marketing spend leading to more deals with major hospital networks. ONE now has a proven tech product that is valued by its clients. As of this memo, ONE spent less than 10% of its receipts from customers on advertising and marketing - if its to quickly accelerate contracted beds (revenue), we think upping spend in this area is crucial.

Objective #3: More sales through Microsoft and Samsung partnerships. As Samsung tablets are the device which works with the ONE product - Samsung sales reps should be incentivised to push ONE’s product. Likewise, since Microsoft’s Azure Marketplace is the cloud platform that ONE has opted to work with, we would like to see sales growth through this channel.

Objective #4: Material contribution to revenue from upsells to older coaxial wired hospitals wings- ONE is now providing “coaxial set-top boxes” which allow older hospital rooms that are wired up using legacy coaxial cables to use ONE (where previously they couldn’t) - we we want to see a wave of sign-ons of older hospital rooms that previously couldn’t use ONE, enough to materially impact topline revenue.

What could go wrong?

Sales risk - Despite a strong customer retention rate and the endorsement of the product by prestigious hospitals, ONE could lose key clients or not seal as many deals in the coming 12 months, hurting their revenue and share price.

Competition risk - ONE has an early mover advantage, but it is not alone in the space it operates in. We think ONE has a really powerful product that should be helped by its traction at some of the most prestigious hospitals in the US. That being said, a big tech company could launch a competitor product.

Funding risk - although ONE raised $20M in November 2021, growth companies need cash to achieve their goals. If ONE doesn’t use the money from this raise wisely, then share price pain could follow. This was ONE’s third capital raise since it listed in 2016.

Technology risk - ONE will need to add functionality to its products over time as the health tech industry advances. ONE has flagged that a range of additional features are in the pipeline, and the successful roll out of these features could help it reduce this particular risk as hospitals become more advanced.

What is our investment plan?

We have invested in ONE twice since we announced it as our Tech Pick of the Year for 2021 in March last year.

The first time at 6 cents and the second time in the recent cap raise at 27 cents.

ONE experienced a significant share price re-rate during 2021 after it announced several new contracts and the health tech sector became hot. As per our usual investment plan we partially de-risked our position selling 22.37% of our total holding, achieving a partial free carry.

We plan to hold a position in ONE for the next 3-5 years (and beyond) as it progresses its plan to gain significant market penetration in the lucrative US healthcare market, and may look to take some profit by selling up to ~17% of our holding if the company successfully delivers on the key objectives listed above and the share price hopefully re-rates again.

Disclosure: The authors of this memo and owners of Next Investors, S3 Consortium Pty Ltd, and associated entities, own 8,525,000 ONE shares at the time of writing. S3 Consortium Pty Ltd has been engaged by ONE to share our commentary on the progress of our investment in ONE over time.


Oneview Healthcare Milestones

Portfolio Initiation
Cloudcare Experience Launches on Time
📅
Jan-Mar Quarterly 2021 (Keep costs stable, increase revenue 20%)
📅
Apr-Jun Quarterly 2021
📅
FY2021 Results
📅 [NEW] Double USA Revenue H1 2021
📅 [NEW] Double USA Revenue H2 2021 (from H1 2021)
🔲 First New Customer via Samsung Partnership
New "Expand" Deal signed (upsell deal with existing customer)
First New Cloud Customer in Australia
✅ First New Cloud Customer in U.S
🔲 Initiation of research coverage by mainstream broker
🔲 Favourable Outcome in Regis Court Case
🔲 Multiple New Customers via Samsung Partnership
🔲 Multiple "Expand" Deal signed (upsell deal with existing customer)
🔲 Multiple "Land" Deal Signed (small new customer deal with upsell potential)
✅ First New Customer via Microsoft Partnership
🔲 Unexpected Announcement 1
🔲 Unexpected Announcement 2

ONE Investment Milestones

✅ Initial Investment: @ 6c
✅ Price increases 500% from initial entry
🔲 Price increases 1000% from initial entry
🔲 Price increase 2000% from initial entry
🔲 12 Month Capital Gain Discount
✅ Free Carry
🔲 Take Profit
🔲 Hold remaining Position for next 2+ years

”Expected Company Milestones” are based on the company's publicly available execution plan and some assumptions made by our team on potential announcements that should de-risk the investment. “Our investment milestones” show our current long-term investment plan. Early stage investments are risky and there is no guarantee that the expected events will occur. The lists are not in sequential order.

Key

🔲 Expected Milestone
✅ Achieved Milestone
🟩 Above Average Result
🟨 Average (Expected) Result
🟧 Below Average Result
🟥 Negative Result
📅 Quarterly Report
🌎 Macro Event
⚔️ Results from Other Company / Project
[UPA] Unexpected Positive Announcement
[NEW] New Milestone Added



Our Past Commentary on Oneview Healthcare plc


Type Date New Title
Mention 14-Jan-2022 $ 0.270 What Happened This Week? Jan-14th-2022
Email 13-Jan-2022 $ ONE delivers record quarter and unlocks legacy hospital sales.
Mention 20-Nov-2021 $ 0.290 What Happened This Week? Nov-20th-2021
Email 15-Nov-2021 $ ONE goes for US market share ‘Land Grab’ with $20M Capital Raise
Mention 30-Oct-2021 $ 0.375 What Happened This Week? Oct-30th-2021
Mention 25-Oct-2021 $ 0.400 What Happened This Week? Oct-23rd-2021
Email 20-Oct-2021 $ ONE announces US $2.4M contract, leveraging Samsung and Microsoft partnerships
Mention 25-Sep-2021 $ 0.410 What Happened This Week? Sep-25th-2021
Email 20-Sep-2021 $ 0.430 ONE, VUL all grown up… BPM, LCL finding targets. PUR drilling again.
Mention 04-Sep-2021 $ 0.380 What Happened This Week? Sep-4th-2021
Email 30-Aug-2021 $ 0.330 ONE delivers foundation for “100% revenue growth in next 6 months”
Mention 28-Aug-2021 $ 0.330 What Happened This Week? Aug-28th-2021
Mention 31-Jul-2021 $ 0.420 What Happened This Week? July-31st-2021
Email 29-Jul-2021 $ 0.410 Expectations exceed, our Tech Pick of the Year delivers a strong quarter of growth.
Mention 19-Jun-2021 $ 0.450 What Happened This Week? June-19th-2021
Email 18-Jun-2021 $ 0.440 ONE signs ANOTHER deal - the second in 8 days
Mention 12-Jun-2021 $ 0.450 What Happened This Week? June-12th-2021
Email 10-Jun-2021 $ 0.420 ONE's First Cloud Deal a Monster
Email 10-May-2021 $ 0.310 Top 10 US Hospital Endorses ONE’s Health Tech
Mention 27-Apr-2021 $ 0.385 Our Portfolio Performance from January 1st to March 31st 2021
Email 23-Apr-2021 $ 0.375 The Quarterly Results Are in For Our Tech Pick Of The Year
Email 31-Mar-2021 $ 0.325 ONE is Our Pick of the Year - It's Just Turbocharged its Sales Strategy
Email 19-Mar-2021 $ 0.230 Tell Me Why: The 10 Reasons We Invested in ONE
Article 19-Mar-2021 $ 0.230 10 Reasons we Invested in ASX:ONE - Our 2021 Tech Pick of the Year
Email 12-Mar-2021 $ 0.077 Our New 2021 Tech Pick of the Year



Oneview Healthcare plc Market Data


Latest Article from Oneview Healthcare plc

What Happened This Week? Jan-14th-2022

We maintain a diversified portfolio of over 20 positions (currently ~40 across all portfolios) in the hope that 2 or 3 will achieve an outsized return and outweigh the companies that may fail.

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