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What Happened?

Published 11-MAY-2024 10:21 A.M.

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14 minute read

New Public Offer - Copper. We have a small allocation in the DOR (to be renamed Asian Battery Metals ASX:AZ9) public offer - click here to read the prospectus and apply .

Due to the small allocation size please limit bids to a maximum $2k. Priority will be given to submitted and paid bids in the order that they are received.

You should read the Prospectus in its entirety before making a decision to invest in the Offer. We strongly recommend you seek professional financial advice whenever making financial investment decisions.

What a great, green week in small cap stocks.

The market has actually felt positive again.

Many stocks in our Portfolio and our watchlist are creeping up... and staying up.

And there are a few multi-baggers happening around the small end of the market at the same time.

(Over the last 18 months of negative sentiment, it feels like there were only a rare handful of multi-baggers across the entire small cap market).

Small companies that deliver material news are getting rewarded again.

And re-rating off bear market lows on good news, sometimes even sentiment alone.

Copper, silver, gold and uranium prices are all making upwards moves.

Lithium stocks are showing a heartbeat.

We aren’t invested in it, but WA1 Resources just hit $20 per share and a market cap of $1.2BN on the back of its late 2022 niobium discovery.

Only 18 months ago its share price was ~12.5c...

Moonshot success stories like WA1 remind everyone why they spend their days making investments in high risk explorers...

Pre-discovery, WA1 was looked at as being crazy to drill in a seriously remote part of WA.

Rene Stark summed it up nicely on the Money of Mine podcast referring to WA1 saying - “look at WA1”, a “bunch of young people with a dream and an idea”, “they raised some money and did it..”.

That’s why, no matter where the market is, we try to stay as Invested as we possibly can.

Upcoming Portfolio Addition listing on Wednesday at 11am AEST

One of our upcoming Portfolio additions now has a confirmed IPO date.

Sun Silver (ASX:SS1) will be online and trading this upcoming Wednesday 15th May at 11am AEST.

SS1 is developing a globally significant silver gold asset with an Inferred Mineral Resource of 292,000,000oz silver equivalent at 72.4gt Ag, in Nevada, USA.

While we wait for SS1 to list, for full details on the Company, check out the Sun Silver IPO Prospectus.

Silver is commonly known as a precious metal (gold’s “little brother”), but silver is also a key material in the production of solar energy panels.

The silver price looks to have started another leg up over the last week after touching above its long term highs last month:

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Here are some of the sections that caught our attention in the Sun Silver prospectus:

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On the current silver market, the deficits and projected supply needs:

  • Solar PV technology poses significant demand risks for silver (“demand risk” meaning a spike in silver demand).
  • Silver deficit of 140 Moz in 2023 marked the third consecutive year of significant annual deficits, which is expected to continue in 2024.
  • Estimates suggest that maintaining the current trajectory of solar panel manufacturing could require up to 20% of the annual silver supply by 2027 and a cumulative 450–520kt of silver through to 2050, representing approximately 85–98% of the current global silver reserves.
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On new solar panel technologies requiring MORE silver:

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And the conclusion from the independent geological report on the potential of Sun Silver’s project is that :

“The Maverick Springs Project, in north-west Nevada, represents an opportunity to expand and develop a project with an existing significant silver-gold inferred resource which shows positive signs for expansion, development and potential extraction. The geological setting location and already established mineralisation provides a strong foundation for the future development of the Project.”

Looking at the 5 Year silver price chart below, you can see where last month the silver price touched above its last high in 2020. It then took a short breather but has been running up again over the last week.

Fingers crossed it keeps moving up in the lead up to Wednesday this week...

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We attended RIU Sydney this week

Some of the team flew up to the RIU Conference in Sydney this week.

It's always good to get out from in front of the computer and go see companies, investors and brokers face to face.

We listened to many different pitches from companies with interesting stories.

The valuations for some of these companies seemed relatively reasonable as well...

A big part of the trip to these conferences is to scope out new opportunities and meet the management teams running them.

It's also a good way of sentiment checking markets/companies.

We noticed a few angry exchanges between investors and management teams at company booths...

Nothing too surprising given the post bull market paper losses we are all nursing.

One interesting takeaway for us was the copper stories in the market that still had relatively OK valuations, a surprise considering the copper price has been running lately...

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During the trip we also connected with the following companies in our Portfolio:

TechGen Metals (ASX:TG1)

Outside of the conference, we met with TG1’s Managing Director Ashley Hood.

TG1 recently finished drilling its Ida Valley lithium project, assays should be coming in within the next few weeks based on TG1’s announcement on the 23rd of April.

We are looking forward to those results and have set up our expectations as follows:

  • Bull case = >1.5% lithium grades from 5m+ intercepts
  • Base case = >1% lithium grades from 5m+ intercepts
  • Bear case = <1% lithium grades from <5m intercepts

As a microcap explorer, a solid strategy is to try to assess a number of different projects - with the hope one evolves into a discovery.

Aside from actually making a discovery, timing is also important due to sentiment swings for commodities.

Since TG1’s ASX listing it has remained active in picking up new assets which it progresses up to drill ready stage as quickly as possible.

We also got an update from Ash on the new copper-nickel/uranium projects TG1 brought into its portfolio of projects.

These new assets are in a fairly early stage, so there's not a lot to go off on, but we do like the look of the copper-nickel assets.

The market seems to have liked them too, rewarding TG1 with a nice share price move back above 4c.

Across both copper-nickel projects, most of the previous exploration was focused on diamonds, nickel and PGE’s because of how close the project is to the Savannah Nickel Mine (12km northwest) and Argyle Diamond Mine (75km north).

The Copper Springs project looks especially interesting because of the old rock chip results which returned up to 4% copper and ~0.26g/t gold.

Next across these assets TG1 will be looking to run a rock chip sampling/geophysics program to find priority drill targets.

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TG1 also acquired some new uranium assets which could be interesting especially considering the uranium market continuing to heat up.

We will be keeping an eye out for any newsflow from these new assets.

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(Check out our Quick Take on the new assets here)

Global Uranium and Enrichment (ASX:GUE)

GUE is one of our two US uranium exposures.

GUE has a mix of advanced stage projects across North America (with existing JORC resources) and exploration assets.

GUE also owns 21.9% of a private company looking to develop uranium enrichment technology in Australia.

We caught up with GUE Managing Director Andrew Ferrier, who gave us a quick update on what to expect over the next 6-9 months.

First for GUE is the drilling at the company's most advanced Tallahassee project in Colorado.

At Tallahassee, GUE has a JORC resource of 49.8m lbs uranium and GUE expects to put out a Scoping Study on the project in Q3 2024.

GUE kicked off a 10-hole drill program at that project this week - on the third day of the conference.

GUE is active on its US uranium projects at a good time considering the recent US Senate ban on Russian uranium imports.

We covered GUE and the latest in the uranium sector in an email on Thursday here:

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( Source )

Andrew was pretty clear on the focus for Tallahassee being on getting that Scoping Study completed - the company expects it will be ready next quarter.

He also talked about how the next drill program would be at the company’s other asset in Colorado (Maybell) - drilling is expected in August.

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So the next few months should see GUE put out a fair bit of newsflow from its drill programs and hopefully start to give the market a good idea of project economics.

Check out Andrew’s full presentation from the conference here :

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( Source )

Noble Helium (ASX:NHE)

We also met with NHE’s Managing Director and CEO Shaun Scott.

NHE recently closed a Share Purchase Plan (SPP) looking to raise $3.5M at 9c per share - we will likely get news of how much they raised next week.

NHE’s plan is to use that cash (as well as its existing cash) to run a “Low-cost flow test of gas cap and deeper helium saturated water mid-year”.

The gas cap NHE will be flow testing was discovered during NHE’s first two wells drilled at its helium project late last year.

So far, NHE has hit helium bearing reservoirs and grades up to 2.46%.

Now it’s all about showing that helium can flow to surface - that is the big catalyst NHE needs to deliver to get its Mbelele prospect commercialised.

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We caught Shaun’s presentation at the conference, during which he mentioned that it would be a relatively low-cost program.

From this work, NHE could deliver a fundamentally important result in the middle of this year. So we are looking forward to the results from the flow test.

The full presentation from Shaun hasn’t been uploaded to Youtube yet but here is a short interview he did while at the conference:

Noble Helium (ASX: NHE) managing director & CEO Shaun Scott at 2024 RIU Sydney Resources Roadhouse. - YouTube

While the share price of a lot of the ASX listed helium players has been coming down lately, we have seen a lot of interest in the helium explorers on the UK markets.

US based helium explorer Helix Exploration just listed on the UK markets after raising £7.5 million - we noticed they actually had bids for £22 million on the offer - so it was a VERY hot IPO...

No surprise that Helix’s share price is already up almost 100% on the IPO price.

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Speaking of US helium - Grand Gulf Energy (ASX: GGE)

Outside of the conference we also managed to catch up with GGE.

GGE is our US based helium exposure.

So far, it has managed to drill and deliver net gas pays of ~31m and helium grades of up to 1% - the only thing missing has been a commercial flow rate of helium.

GGE’s project sits in and amongst existing helium infrastructure - pipes and production facilities

If GGE can establish a commercial flow of helium, it's a fairly straightforward job tying it into existing infrastructure.

GGE Managing Director Dane Lance gave us a quick update on where the company is at - a lot of our chat was around the deeper stacked reservoir potential of GGE’s project.

GGE recently put out an announcement on the deeper stacked target play where the company thinks there is additional upside.

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GGE has a few options for what to do next, including a sidetrack at Jesse-1A or new wells at Jesse-3/Earp-1.

At this stage we are watching to see GGE firm up its plans and detail where it plans to take its project next.

Key takeaways from the Sydney trip

Overall, our Sydney trip was a good way to get the elevator pitch from many different companies in a short period of time.

Sometimes it's good to be aware of the stories in the market so that you can understand how the market values other companies looking to do similar things to some of your own Investments.

For example, if a company is looking to drill for copper in X region, in Y country and is valued at $10M then a company you are invested in with a similar story should probably be valued similarly.

It never fails to amaze us how many companies have similar/identical stories...

In a nutshell, conferences like RIU in Sydney give us a chance to get some quick context on the broader market and a way of rapidfire sentiment checking companies and investors.

What we wrote about this week

Neurotech International (ASX:NTI)

NTI released the latest batch of data from its Rett Syndrome trial showing the market a significant improvement in secondary endpoints, in comparison to the $2.4BN Neuren’s Daybue product.

Read more: NTI’s Phase I/II Rett Syndrome clinical trial results improve upon $2.4BN capped Neuren’s results...

Mandrake Resources (ASX:MAN)

This week MAN showed the market its brines can be turned into battery grade 99.9% pure lithium hydroxides.

The news came after MAN trialled a Rio Tinto backed Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technology on its brines.

Read more: MAN Produces Battery Grade 99.9% Pure Lithium Hydroxide from its US Brines

Genmin (ASX:GEN)

The first Investment in our Emerge portfolio - GEN - recently came out of a recapitalisation raise after a ~8 month long suspension.

We participated in the 10c recapitalisation and have recently seen the share price rally by over 70% to 17c.

Read more: GEN is “Emerging”

Global Uranium and Enrichment (ASX:GUE)

Early on in the week the US senate approved a ban on Russian uranium supplies.

Later in the week GUE kicked off a drill program at its Tallahassee uranium project in Colorado.

Tallahassee already has a 49.8M lb uranium JORC resource and the purpose for the drill program is to gather data that can feed into a scoping study expected in Q3-2024.

The macro keeps improving for US based uranium companies and we are hoping GUE is able to capitalise on those tailwinds.

Read more: US bans Russian uranium - GUE set to drill for uranium... in the US

Oneview Healthcare (ASX:ONE)

This week we put out an update on ONE, which has been amongst the tip performers in our portfolio lately.

We are still holding a big position in ONE and think the company’s BYOD business model could be a game changer for its growth profile.

Read more: ONE: What we are watching out for?

Quick Takes

MAN produces battery grade lithium hydroxide

IVZ expands lead portfolio with 2D Seismic data

TG1 picks up new copper-nickel-uranium assets in WA

TYX announces assay results from its Angolan lithium project

Bite sized summaries of the latest mainstream news in battery metals, biotechs, uranium etc: The Future Money: https://future-money.co/

Macro News - What we are reading

Energy:

Madeleine King’s Future Gas Strategy commits to gas ‘through to 2050 and beyond’ (afr.com)

  • Albanese gov't unveils Future Gas Strategy to support gas use beyond 2050, aiding renewables and trade.
  • Minister King prioritises data-driven approach, emphasising gas's role in energy transition.
  • Strategy includes emissions reduction measures, "use it or lose it" provisions to spur gas extraction.

Madeleine King’s Future Gas Strategy commits to gas ‘through to 2050 and beyond’ (afr.com)

  • Albanese government adopts gas strategy to support renewables and industry, emphasising emissions reduction and gas extraction.
  • Strategy aligns with net zero emissions goal by 2050 while ensuring gas affordability for domestic users.

Gold:

China Gold Buying Slows as Reserves Grow for 18th Straight Month (Bloomberg)

  • China's central bank continued its gold reserve accumulation for an 18th consecutive month in April.
  • However, the pace of buying slowed due to record gold prices, with April purchases at 60,000 ounces, down from 160,000 ounces in March.
  • Despite the slowdown, first-quarter purchases by central banks, led by China, were the strongest on record, indicating continued interest in gold as a strategic asset.

Silver:

Silver set for its day in the sun courtesy of solar panel boom (Resources Rising Stars)

  • Silver market sees optimistic forecasts, with some predicting significant price spikes, driven by supply deficits and industrial demand, especially from the solar panel industry.
  • ASX-listed silver stocks such as Sun Silver are gaining attention due to their growth potential in response to rising demand for silver in various industries.

Uranium:

Data centres will likely provide boost to nuclear energy, says Cameco CEO (Reuters)

  • Cameco Corp CEO sees data centre demand, especially from applications like ChatGPT, as a nuclear energy booster.
  • Data centre expansion, driven by tech giants for apps like ChatGPT, will sharply raise global power needs.
  • To address environmental concerns, many are eyeing zero-carbon options like nuclear for data centre power.

Macro USA Battery Metals:

US President Biden Poised to Impose Tariffs on China EVs, Strategic Sectors (Bloomberg)

  • Biden administration plans targeted tariffs on China, focusing on strategic sectors like electric vehicles.
  • Move underscores economic competition with China, following previous tariff hikes.
  • Aims to address concerns over China's manufacturing strategy, with potential global trade implications.

Have a great weekend,

Next Investors

tags

COPPER SILVER


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