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Gonna party like it’s FY25

Published 08-JUL-2024 09:34 A.M.


15 minute read

Commentary: Happy new financial year, what a great week that was. Here are the stocks making moves.

Quick Takes: EMD, LYN, TG1, TEE, BPM, SS1, GTR, GUE, IIQ, NTI, AL3, ONE

This week in our Portfolios: AL3, PFE

Happy new financial year.

The first week of trading in the new FY is done.

And it was a nice green week (for our Portfolio and watchlist).

Now it's still early days...

And the first few weeks of any new FY are generally pretty strong.

But we are hoping the rest of the year follows the trend set by this week's positive trading.

Here is a quick look at some of the names in our Portfolio that kicked off the new FY strongly:

Tech stocks are shining bright in our Portfolio

AML3D (ASX:AL3) is our latest Portfolio addition and is already up over 200%...

It’s been an unbelievable start to the new financial year for AL3 so far.

AL3 has had a very strong share price run on large volumes, we suspect a few investors who have cleaned up on Droneshield (up ~10x in the last 12 months) might be moving into AL3 as their next bet in this thematic.

AL3 builds robotic 3D printing systems so that organisations (like the US Navy) can manufacture specialised metal parts that can be built on site and on demand.

On Tuesday AL3 made a $1.1M sale with a US Navy supplier.

Here’s our commentary on that deal - Read: AL3 announces $1.1M sale to US Navy supplier - US traction growing

We also found a video on the “Build Submarines” program that promotes the technology partnership between Australia, UK and the US (AUKUS).

This video features a 3 second cameo by AL3’s ARCHEMY 3D printing system (as seen in the screenshot below).

The video has 5.3 million views...

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(Watch Video)

AUKUS is a trilateral security partnership between Australia, UK and the USA.

Announced in September 2021, the partnership focuses on nuclear-powered submarines and protection over the indo-pacific region.

AL3 is still very early on in its US go-to-market strategy, and we are anticipating sales growth for the company as it launches its hub in Ohio.

OneView Healthcare (ASX:ONE)

ONE is our 2021 Tech Pick of the Year and hovering around its 52-week highs of ~40c.

This week ONE’s biggest shareholder, well-known Sydney fund manager and billionaire Will Vicars lodged a “Change in Substantial Holding” notice.

This notice revealed that Will Vicars acquired another ~9M ONE shares “at market prices” and increased his holding to ~34.18% of ONE.

Read our commentary on it here: ONE’s biggest shareholder increases shareholding

Hopefully, ONE can deliver some sales newsflow and start testing new highs this financial year.

Even WHK is up ~30% for the week.

We now just need WHK to land a big contract (we are still holding, including our Investment in the 2.25c placement in February).

So a few tech stocks seem to be on a run the last few weeks...

If you know any good tech stocks (like pre-share price run AL3 or ONE) that have been around for a few years, have a product in the market, and revenue, but are “unloved” or “unknown” and trading at a low market cap, let us know by responding to this email.

Silver price running - our Investments working toward major catalysts

The silver price went for a bit of a jog over the last five days.

Yesterday it hit ~US$30/ounce again and this morning closed for the week just above US$31 - a very bullish finish.

Here is the last 6 months of trading for Silver - you can see the nice little run up over the last ~5 days, let's hope it keeps on going next week:

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And here is what the silver price looks like over 20 years, we aren’t chartists but it looks like it wants to keep going up, especially if it can retest ~US$32.5 this week:

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Both of our new silver Investments - SS1 and MTH - are moving into heavy newsflow periods...

Mithril Resources (ASX:MTH) just raised $3.7M, with London-based fund Jupiter coming in as a strategic investor as part of the placement.

Jupiter now holds 9.99% of MTH after taking $2M of the raise. The raise was done at 20c - this was (and still is) at a premium to MTH’s current market price.

We always like it when long-term, sticky funds come onto the share register of our companies.

Jupiter has circa $1BN of funds under management, so has deep pockets and will hopefully be supportive as MTH develops its assets.

MTH is currently drilling its project following up the intercepts from 2021 that made it into the global top 10 intercepts list for that year.

We saw this video on Linkedin from the MTH drilling team on site - fingers crossed the drill bit delivers some high grade hits.

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(Watch the video)

(if any geologists out there have any insights into the cores in the photo/video please reach out and let us know).

Now we just wait for the assay results, and hopefully some big intercepts while (hopefully) the silver price reaches new decade highs.

(we’ll take US$36 silver please as our bet for when the MTH assays come out - fingers crossed)

Sun Silver (ASX: SS1) is also due to kick off its own drill program in just a few days time.

The company announced this week that drilling would start on July 8th, which by our calculations should mean we get a “drilling started” announcement on Monday.

(Unless of course the 4th of July celebrations were big on SS1’s Nevada project site, in which case perhaps it starts a day or two later).

SS1 is following up high grade hits from its project to the north-west of its existing 292Moz silver equivalent JORC resource.

Hopefully, SS1 can deliver some big hits from outside its resource envelope and add to its already giant JORC resource.

(ideally into an upwards moving silver price)

We covered the news from SS1 this week in the following Quick Take: SS1 to kick off drill program next week

Titan Minerals (ASX:TTM) is another one of our companies with exposure to silver (and also gold... and copper).

TTM has had a nice little run.

(during June of all months?)

One of TTM’s assets has a 3.1M ounce gold and 22M ounce silver JORC resource.

TTM’s share price has has risen from 3c to ~5c in the last 30 days.

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Gina Rinehart recently got involved with TTM via a subsidiary of Hancock Prospecting, called Hanrine. As part of the deal, US$2M gets paid to TTM when the deal becomes binding, the remainder of the US$118M gets spent on exploration and development.

The next thing we are looking out for with TTM is to see that deal get finalised.

Biotech’s warming up again?

We noticed volumes in Arovella Therapeutics (ASX:ALA) have been increasing lately and the share price slowly creeping up after its placement in March to raise $12.5M at 10c.

ALA touched 16c on Friday, closing at 15c.

ALA is looking to develop an off-the-shelf cancer cell therapy treatment - part of the broader field of cancer immunotherapy.

ALA’s corporate broker, Blue Ocean Equities, has been taking CEO and MD Michael Baker on a non-deal roadshow over the past few days, which could mean investors like what ALA has to say.

Given ALA already has cash in the bank, the roadshow may have been what gave ALA's share price a kick this week.

You can check out the full Investor Presentation here.

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We met with ALA MD Michael on Friday and got an update on where ALA was on the road to dosing its first patient.

It is good catching up with Michael as we always walk away from the presentation with a better understanding of the ALA story and some great insights into the general world of early stage biotechs.

The $12.5M capital raise in March means that ALA is “funded to dose patients with ALA-101 during FY2025”.

We are looking forward to seeing that happen over the next 12 months.

Our AI-driven mental health diagnostics technology Investment, TrivarX (ASX:TRI), recently released an update on its phase 2 clinical trial.

As of its last update, TRI has recruited ~362 patients into its 400 patient trial.

That news was ~2.5 weeks ago so the company should be getting close to finalising patient recruitment.

TRI’s share price has been trading sideways from our Initial Entry Price of 2.5c but there are a few major catalysts to look forward to over the next few months - TRI with Significant Update on their Phase 2 Clinical Trial

Our latest biotech Investment Inoviq (ASX:IIQ) just hit the closing date for its Share Purchase Plan (SPP), which was three times oversubscribed.

IIQ is developing an exosome technology for breast cancer, ovarian cancer and neurodegenerative disease (Alzheimer’s) diagnostics as well as a solid tumour (breast cancer) therapy.

The SPP had over 3x in applications relative to the $2M that was initially meant to be raised.

IIQ ended up scaling back the demand and taking ~$2.4M of the $7.3M in applications.

Huge demand in SPPs is a good sign there are buyers out there for a stock and it's no surprise the company’s share price has been rallying right after the SPP closed.

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Since we added IIQ to our Portfolio, the SPP had put downward pressure on the company's share price.

That is typical of SPPs where the stock is trading well above the SPP price.

Buying pressure from existing shareholders typically moves “off-market” as they top up in the SPP instead.

Investors also look to sell on-market at anywhere above the SPP price to fund the off market purchases they are making in the SPP.

In IIQ’s case from the day we added the company to our portfolio (12th of June) the share price has consistently traded above the 50c SPP and at one point even hit 70c.

As is the case most of the time, some investors likely sold shares on market, and then bought back in at a discount at the 50c SPP.

It's not a bad way of locking in some profits without losing your exposure.

However there is a scaleback risk if the placement is oversubscribed (like in the case with IIQ), and investors who want to maintain the original position will need to buy back in again on-market.

Now with the SPP done, we are hoping the brakes are off IIQ’s share price and it can start to move higher (hopefully off the back of some material catalysts being delivered).

Read our Quick Take on IIQ’s SPP here: IIQ Share Purchase Plan Oversubscribed

Finally, in the biotech space we noticed some strong buying in Emyria (ASX:EMD).

EMD is an integrated clinical drug development and care delivery company with a primary focus on psychedelic assisted therapies - think MDMA, ketamine, psilocybin for mental health disorders.

The company’s share price bounced off its 52 week lows and is already up almost 50%.

EMD kicked off the new FY with a ~$500k grant to advance its “Proprietary MDMA Analogue Program”.

We covered that news in a Quick Take here: EMD receives ~$500k in non dilutive funding

EMD is one of the biotechs in our portfolio that has slowly seen its share price drift lower... until this week.

We are hoping things turn around for EMD this financial year.

The company is a first mover in the psychedelic care market and Australia is one of the only places in the world where the regulators have given the greenlight for work to be done on psychedelic assisted therapies.

We are looking forward to what the company can do this FY.

Oil and Gas stocks went quiet for a bit, now coming back?

Invictus Energy (ASX:IVZ) finally seems to be up and about again.

IVZ ran a shareholder briefing on the 19th of June and the company’s share price has bounced off its 52 week lows since then.

IVZ’s share price is up over 50% from its lows already.

IVZ was one of the companies in our Portfolio that we think got hit hardest during the tax loss selling in June.

IVZ’s share price had come off from ~25c to ~5c, so many investors were sitting on losses there.

(including us, but we have held on in anticipation of more drilling this year)

Here is a link to that shareholder briefing:

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(Watch Video)

Elixir Energy's (ASX:EXR) share price has also had a nice little run in the last week from 8.8c lows in June to a 12c close on Friday.

EXR’s next big catalyst is a flow test at its QLD gas project, expected to re-start in a few weeks.

The flow test had started earlier in the year but had to be stopped midway through due to equipment failures.

During the quiet period between the equipment failures and remobilising, EXR has gone and picked up more ground in and around its project.

We take it as a signal that EXR is confident in its project even pre-flow test results.

We are looking forward to EXR getting its flow test restarted after the delay knocked the puff out EXR’s share price run back in April.

EXR said the stimulation programs would recommence in July so we are hoping to see some newsflow from the company this month.

Another one of our oil and gas Investments - Condor Energy (ASX:CND) started moving on Thursday.

It was up 21% on Thursday alone...

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CND holds a massive 4,858km2 of ground offshore in Peru, where it has multiple existing discoveries inside its project area.

One of those is Piedra Redonda where CND already has a 404 Bcf contingent and 2.2 trillion cubic feet prospective resource.

That resource came off the back of analysis done on old wells that flowed gas to surface at ~8.2 million standard cubic feet of gas per day.

If the timeline from CND’s recent presentation is anything to go by, we should expect to see some news from that Piedra Redonda project soon:

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With $250BN oil supermajor Total Energies recently picking up ground right next door to CND, and with so much news still to come from its project, we are looking forward to what CND does this financial year.

See our latest CND note here: Oil & Gas Supermajor TotalEnergies picks up ground next to CND)

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Now we just need 88E to join the party... a farm-out in Alaska or perhaps when they firm up some drill targets on their new Namibia project from their planned 2D seismic program.

A few of our other stocks have shown signs of life in the last week...

In an otherwise pretty rough market for junior explorers, a few of our Investments got some interest this week.

Panterra Minerals (ASX:PFE) ended the week up almost 20%.

PFE is our US lithium brine Investment in the Smackover region - where ExxonMobil is building out its lithium business.

We put out a note on PFE earlier this week, check that out here: Pantera to re-enter wells for lithium brine as oil major neighbour Exxon starts pre-sales of lithium.

Kuniko (ASX:KNI) also went up (by a relatively modest amount).

KNI put out some drill results from its nickel-cobalt project last week.

And, the EU has finally started talking up its domestic critical minerals industry with the union finally putting pen to paper on its Critical Raw Materials Act.

The EU has historically been a tough place for junior explorers to operate in - be it permitting, environmental and from a financing perspective.

We think the EU Critical Raw Materials Act will change things pretty significantly as the EU finally puts capital behind an industry that it has cast aside for so long.

The following article from Benchmark summarises the situation the EU finds itself in pretty well:

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And finally Heavy Minerals (ASX: HVY) rallied off its lows this week off no news - it's been great to see HVY get up off the canvas.

So you can probably tell we are pretty happy with the first week of the new financial year.

It’s certainly a welcome change in mood from the June doldrums.

Will it continue?

We hope so, but this is the small cap markets and nobody can know for sure.

What we wrote about this week


Our latest Tech Investment AML3D (ASX:AL3) announced a $1.1 million deal with a US Navy supplier for its ARCEMY 3D printing system.

The deal was the first time the company converted an existing lease agreement into an outright sale + service/maintenance contract - a good indicator for us that the company’s new sales strategy is working.

It’s a good way to start the new financial year, and we hope that this weeks news is the first of many deals as part of AL3’s US growth strategy.

Read: AL3 announces $1.1M sale to US Navy supplier - US traction growing

Pantera Minerals (ASX:PFE)

PFE is our lithium exposure in the Smackover Basin in the USA.

PFE is a fairly early mover into the region and now holds ~22,000 leased acres - the biggest landholder in the Smackover outside the five established players - Exxon, Albemarle, Tetra, Equinor, and Standard Lithium...

Earlier in the week Exxon signed an MOU with SK On to supply ~100,000 metric tonnes of lithium from this region for US-made batteries.

PFE aims to re-enter old wells to sample for lithium and establish a maiden JORC resource by Q4, potentially increasing its market value.

Read: Pantera to re-enter wells for lithium brine as oil major neighbour Exxon starts pre-sales of lithium.

Quick Takes

EMD receives ~$500k in non dilutive funding

LYN picking up ground next to $17BN lithium giant SQM

TG1 puts out an update on its gold-copper projects

TEE close to completing acquisition from Hancock subsidiary

BPM picks up WA rare earths project

SS1 to kick off drill program next week

GTR to drill US uranium projects this quarter

GUE to drill US uranium project in August

IIQ Share Purchase Plan Oversubscribed

NTI appoints Chief Medical Officer

ONE’s biggest shareholder increases shareholding

Bite sized summaries of the latest mainstream news in battery metals, biotechs, uranium etc:

Macro News - What we are reading


ASX defence stocks among winners as funds back rising global military spending (AFR)

  • Rising geopolitical tensions are boosting global military spending.
  • Defence stocks, like ASX-listed DroneShield, are seeing significant gains.
  • Increased military investment is affecting commodities like iron ore, benefiting companies like BHP and Fortescue.

Green Ammonia:

The World's First Decentralised Modular Green Ammonia System Is Here The New Money

  • Green ammonia technology aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fertiliser production, a major source of emissions.
  • Policy shifts in Canada are driving the push for lower emissions in agriculture, making green ammonia more relevant.
  • Green ammonia's potential extends beyond fertiliser, impacting fuel cells, grid storage, and transportation.

Have a great weekend,

Next Investors

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