Sunday Edition: 13th July

This information is general in nature about speculative investments and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

Here in our “Sunday Edition”, we send you a quick summary of what we wrote, read, and watched during the week.

While we didn’t get the interest rate cut we were hoping for, and a few global trade deals are taking longer than the expected deadline, the small end of the market was still feeling pretty buoyant this week...

Yesterday’s Saturday Edition

Commentary: “Selling picks and shovels in a gold rush”. When do “investment booms” happen? Silver prices surged overnight, big Monday.

Read our Saturday Weekender note here: Selling Picks and Shovels in a Gold Rush

BPM Minerals (ASX:BPM)

This week BPM:

• Entered into an exclusive option agreement on a new gold project in WA that hosts high grade, near surface, visible gold mineralisation (more on this below) AND
• Sold its Claw Gold project to the $4.1BN capped Capricorn Metals for an upfront consideration of A$1.5M ($600k in cash and $900k in Capricorn shares). PLUS another $1.5M of contingent milestone payments if Capricorn can define a JORC resource, and decide to mine it.

We met up with the BPM team on Thursday to hear about BPM’s new project, which the BPM team is calling “The Hunt for Tropicana 2.0”.

Tropicana is the 8 million ounce gold discovery in WA owned in a joint venture between $3.3BN Regis Resources and $36BN AngloGold.

BPM's new project sits on the same geology as Tropicana, and the original drilling was done by AngloGold after the company made the Tropiciana discovery in 2004.

While “the next Tropicana” sounds pretty appealing, this is of course early stage exploration, and there’s no guarantee of success.

We spoke to BPM’s new Exploration Manager Luke Blais who vended in the asset to BPM.

(fun fact: the ground was actually picked up from one of the cast members of the popular show Aussie Gold Hunters)

Luke was named “AMEC’s Prospector of the Year” in 2023 for the rare earths discovery with Dreadnought Resources which ran up to ~$325M market cap on a discovery.

Our key takeaways from the BPM presentation was that:

• BPM has a very low enterprise value (less than $1M at 4.9 cents)
• BPM’s new project has “district scale” potential (~630km^2 of ground ~150km east of Kalgoorlie)
• There are some walk up drill targets from all of the work that AngloGold did in the region after they made the Tropicana discovery
• BPM won’t need to raise any money before drilling. The company will have circa $3.5M in cash on completion of the Claw project sale.
• Next, BPM will need to secure a heritage agreement with the Native Title Holders, leading to a heritage survey.
• BPM aims to drill this quarter.

Mithril Silver and Gold (ASX:MTH)

This week MTH raised A$12.7M at A$0.401 per share from Canadian investors to support the development of its Mexican silver project.

Just before the silver price pushed US$38.53 per ounce yesterday.

(great timing by those Canadian Investors)

(Source)

During our recent site visit to MTH’s project there were a number of Canadian analysts and brokers on site also taking an interest in the story.

MTH is dual listed on both the TSX and ASX - which means that it has access to larger pools of capital from both markets.

The company also published an exploration update this week confirming that it would start drilling two new targets this quarter.

Target 1 - MTH has a maiden JORC resource of 373Koz gold and 11Moz silver.

Target 2 - drilling is ongoing right now.

Targets 3 & 5 - drilling will start quarter:

MTH has two rigs on site right now and we are hoping that this drilling will lead to more mineral discoveries and for MTH to ultimately double the size of its existing resource.

EchoIQ (ASX:EIQ)

EIQ has an FDA cleared AI technology that assists cardiologists in detecting heart diseases.

This week, EIQ signed a reseller agreement to get its technology into more hospitals in the USA.

EIQ’s reseller agreement is with SARC MedIQ, a leading US-based provider of imaging workflow solutions and is in over 300 healthcare facilities in the US.

We have seen these types of reseller agreements work before, particularly if there is a high level of synergy between the products.

(a good example from our Portfolio is Oneview and its resale partner Baxter, who has helped significantly multiply sales for Oneview into the US healthcare system since the partnership began)

Is this EIQ’s Baxter? We hope so...

This first agreement will integrate EIQ’s technology into 36 hospitals and cardiology practices around the US.

Building up EIQ’s footprint is a key benchmark that we are using to evaluate if EIQ’s product is being adopted by the industry.

The more integrations = more scans are being done = more revenue for EIQ down the line.

Iondrive (ASX:ION)

Over the past couple of months ION’s share price has been climbing steadily in the background on limited news.

The company hit a ~3 year high this week, pipping 5.2 cents, its highest point since 2023.

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

ION has a proprietary recycling technology to extract valuable metals from e-waste.

We wrote yesterday about how the bifurcated market for critical metals is making the “metals recycling” thematic hot again: Selling Picks and Shovels in a Gold Rush

ASX-listed peer MTM Critical Metals has been on a big run over the past 12-months, recently completing a $50M capital raise, and is now capped at ~ $300M.

We have compared ION to MTM in a previous note which you can check out here: How does the ION compare to MTM?

Looks like the market now might be catching on to the ION story?

(Remember - the past performance of any stock is not an indicator of future performance)

Sun Silver (ASX:SS1)

This week SS1 received regulatory approvals to increase the size of its 2025 drill program in Nevada, USA.

SS1 already has a ~480M ounce silver equivalent resource with some antimony present.

SS1 is currently in the middle of its 2025 drill program and after this week’s news will be able to add 90 additional drill pad locations to support a bigger drill program.

With its 2025 drill program, SS1 is aiming to:

1. Upgrade the JORC resource - SS1 is drilling extensional holes to the north-west of the project. Our last note covered the assay results from the first extensional hole here.
2. Increase the classification of SS1’s resource - SS1’s existing JORC resource estimate is currently 100% in the inferred category. SS1 is drilling in-fill holes to try and upgrade that classification into the indicated category.

Haranga Resources (ASX:HAR)

HAR is just days away from completing their acquisition of 100% of a USA gold project with 5.8km of ground in the heart of the famous California gold rush region, a region literally named the “Mother Lode”.

This week HAR published sampling results that were selected as part of the company’s due diligence for its gold project in California.

The results returned high grade gold intervals which married up with original results - exactly what HAR would have been hoping to see as part of due diligence.

Titan Minerals (ASX:TTM)

This week TTM published an exploration update on its 3.1M ounce gold project in Ecuador.

There are two drill rigs on site right now and a JORC resource upgrade is now scheduled for “late Q3 2025”.

TTM also put out a batch of soil sampling and trenching results from in and around its existing resource (at Cerro Verde), with gold grades as high as 20.2m over 6.2m trenches.

Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML)

RML just had its drill permits approved for its maiden drill program on a gold-antimony-tungsten-silver project right next door to the $2BN capped Perpetua Resources.

RML now expects to be drilling its gold-antimony-tungsten-silver project in August.

RML’s initial drill program is for ~20 holes, but we did see that the permit allows for the drilling of “up to 57 holes”, so RML will have optionality with respect to expanding the program.

The RML team ran a webinar earlier in the week which you can watch here:

Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML) - Investor Webinar - 7 July 2025

🚨NEW INVESTMENT: Althea Group Holdings (ASX:AGH)

We just added Althea Group Holdings (ASX:AGH) to our Portfolio.

Consumer behaviours are changing. People are drinking less alcohol and are becoming much more health conscious...

AGH is targeting one of the fastest growing consumer industries in the USA...

THC-infused drinks as a replacement for alcohol.

$23M capped AGH contract manufactures THC drinks for ANY drinks brand wanting to offer them to consumers.

(its the sell “picks and shovels in a gold rush” style model)

AGH already has the #1 THC drink manufacturing business in Canada.

AND has customers including $3.34BN Boston Beer Company.

In the last six months AGH has opened a facility in Florida to go after the larger US market...

Where the industry is set to grow to A$30B by 2028.

In this article we cover the full AGH story including our Investment Memo and the 11 Reasons we Invested in AGH: Our New Portfolio Addition: Althea Group Holdings (ASX: AGH)

AML3D (ASX:AL3)

On Monday, the US Navy issued AL3 a “Letter of Intent”.

(yes, THE US Navy)

The letter outlines the Navy’s forecasts of what it needs in the additive manufacturing (that's the fancy term for 3D printing) space AND it tells AL3 that it intends for the company to play a “pivotal role” in helping the Navy to reach its goals.

It’s not every day a company gets a forecasting letter like this from the US Department of the Navy. You can read the complete letter on page 2 of AL3’s announcement.

The US Navy letter expresses an intent to collaborate with AL3 on :

• 100 new additive manufacturing (3D printing) systems to be installed across the US marine industrial base
  
  (for context, over the last 18 months AL3 has announced a total 10 system sales for total revenue of $14.3M)
• A minimum of ~400 manufactured parts printed in FY26, growing each year until an estimated ~1,600 parts will need to be produced in FY30
  
  (for context, over the last 27 months AL3 has announced 4 custom parts contracts for a total of $3.35M revenue, noting that smaller parts contracts may not have been announced)

Read our take here: US Navy Letter of Intent: AL3 “pivotal” to US Navy’s forecast demand of 100 x 3D printing systems.

Kaiser Reef (ASX:KAU)

On Tuesday, our Aussie gold producer KAU released a quarterly production update. This is the first quarterly production update since the acquisition of the Henty Mine in Tasmania.

KAU produced 4,825 ounces for the June quarter (~$24M worth at today’s spot prices).

~$20M of that came from just HALF a quarter of production, on its newly acquired Henty mine.

We are looking forward to seeing what Henty can deliver in a full quarter of operation under KAU ownership.

The ~$106M capped KAU is now a multi-asset gold producer targeting ~30k ounces of gold production per annum across its projects.

...with plans to grow to ~50k ounces per annum.

So far so good IF the Henty production numbers continue like this (no guarantee that they will of course).

How could KAU grow to 50,000 oz per year of gold production?

Profits made from the Henty mine can be used for:

• Exploration at Henty - which KAU is currently drilling (and recently said it already hit “108m intersection of strong alteration, 600m away from known mineralisation”)... KAU could announce drill results from Henty any day now. . (Source)
• Increasing production from the A1 Mine - In our opinion KAU’s A1 gold mine is overdue for a big production number. A1 is the reason we initially Invested in KAU and we still want to see it reach its full potential.
• Exploration at Nuggety gold mine - This mine is famous for producing 301k ounces at 187g/t gold in 1856 to 1866... if KAU can find another high grade gold deposit here it can be processed and sold at KAU’s operational Maldon gold processing plant a few kilometres away.

Read more: KAU early quarterly update: Record gold production... again. Now at a 46 day streak.

Pantera Lithium (ASX:PFE)

On Wednesday PFE signed a binding deal to sell its US lithium brine assets in the Smackover Basin for A$40M.

So the starter’s gun has been fired - is this transaction the first salvo that then flushes out interest from bigger neighbours or other companies looking for a foothold in the Smackover?

PFE’s acreage has a floor price now...

PFE has 26,000 acres of land in the Smackover Region in the USA.

The ground is surrounded by $753BN Exxon, $103BN Equinor and $393BN Chevron’s lithium projects.

The binding offer announced is from US-based private lithium company EnergyX - the deal is split $6M cash, and $34M in equity in EnergyX.

EnergyX has two lithium brine assets (one is also in the Smackover, USA and the other one is in Chile) and owns 5 Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technologies protected by 130 patents.

EnergyX is a private company that has raised over US$130M to date including from General Motors who came in at the series B round, and it has a US$690M Letter of Intent from the US Export Import Bank.

Read more: $5.7M capped PFE cuts $40M deal for its US assets: start of a bidding war?

PFE’s Executive Chairman, Barnaby Egerton-Warburton & CEO of EnergyX, Teague Egan will update shareholders on the A$40M sale of the Smackover Lithium Project tomorrow morning at 11:30AM AEST / 9:30AM AWST.

Register for PFE’s webinar here: PFE Webinar Link for Monday

Ahead of that webinar, you can also watch Teague talk about EnergyX’s projects (this is before the PFE deal) and his vision for the company (this is obviously relevant to PFE shareholders if the transaction goes through and PFE becomes an EnergyX shareholder).

(Watch the presentation here)

Island Pharmaceuticals (ASX:ILA)

This week ILA finalised the acquisition of a drug with potential to defend against bioweapons.

ILA’s new drug has already had over US$70M in US government funding support for clinical development against viruses that could be deployed as bioweapons in war scenarios.

We think, as part of the broader defence build up we are seeing globally, countries will soon start to increase their sourcing and stockpiling of bioweapon treatments and vaccines...

Like we are seeing with critical military metals.

ILA’s new drug has already been shown to be effective against ~20 other viruses in lab tests - many of which sit in the “weaponisable” category.

And it has already shown 100% survival rate for animals injected with Marburg disease 24 and 48 hours after infection.

ILA hopes to fast track approvals of this drug through the “Animal Rule” pathway.

This is a regulatory framework designed for drugs that work on deadly viruses, like the one that ILA acquired, to prove efficacy just from animal data alone.

If ILA is able to secure a fast track approval, it could be eligible for a Priority Review Voucher which is like a (valuable) “thank you” from the FDA for bringing a drug to market.

Priority Review Vouchers are transferrable to other drug development companies, and generally sell for between US$100M to US$150M each.

Read more: ILA enters defence against bioweapons and virus terrorism with new acquisition.

ILA’s new chairman Jason Carroll and CEO Dr David Foster ran through the plan pretty well in the following webinar:

(Watch full webinar here)

Pentagon to become largest shareholder in rare earth miner MP Materials; shares surge 50% (CNBC)

On Friday, the talk of the mining world was about the US Government’s multi-billion dollar deal with NYSE listed MP Metals.

The US Government will become MP Materials’ largest shareholder (up a 15% owner), with numerous further agreements announced, including:

• Deal will boost US output of rare earths, loosen China's dominance
• Defense Department will guarantee a floor price for key rare earths of US$110/kg NdPr
• Floor price will be twice current Chinese market price
• Plans to build a new magnet manufacturing facility by 2028
• An agreement to purchase 100% of the magnets produced
• MP Materials' shares surge nearly 50% on news of the deal
• US$150M loan from the DoD
• US$400M equity investment by the DoD

Since the Trump Administration announced its intention to boost critical mineral production within the US, this deal is the clearest sign about just how serious it is.

(dare we say that the deal is almost China-like)

We have a number of different US-based projects for minerals that have been deemed as critical by the US Government including:

• SS1 - Silver-Gold-Antimony in Nevada, USA. Largest pre-development primary silver resource on the ASX.
• JBY - Gold in Nevada, ~1.4M ounce gold equivalent JORC resource and room to grow that further. Immediately adjacent to one of the world’s largest producing gold mines.
• HAR - Gold in California. In the geographic epicentre of one of the biggest gold rushes in history with a target to grow its resource to 1M ounces.
• RML - Gold-antimony-tungsten exploration project right next door to the $2B capped Perpetua Resources.
• GUE - Uranium Exploration + Enrichment in Wyoming, USA. Drilling this quarter.
• GTR - Uranium exploration in Wyoming. More drilling is coming soon.
• 88E - Oil exploration in Alaska.
• PFE - Lithium exploration in the Smackover Region of Arkansas next to Exxon, Albemarle, Chevron and Standard Lithium. (Just announced a potential asset sale to EnergyX).

We think that this MP Metals deal will shine a big spotlight on US-based minerals projects.

Particularly now that the US Government has shown a big willingness to support projects through to production as a matter of national interest.

Mental health claims pushing life insurers to crisis point, says CALI, Acenda, AIA (AFR)

This week the AFR published a report on the growing payouts by insurance companies for mental health support.

Some damning stats from the article include:

• Mental health claims grew from $1.2 billion in 2019 to $2.2 billion in 2024.
• Of all $5 billion in life insurance payouts in 2024, 44 per cent were linked to mental ill health rather than a physical condition or injury, compared with 25 per cent in 2019
• “Twenty-five per cent of the cause of claim for those under 25 is now mental health, and for those under 40, 30 per cent of the claims we get are for mental health,” he said.

This is a big issue for insurance companies and they are now scrambling to invest in mental health support services.

(Medibank announced a $50M investment into mental health earlier this year and Bupa is set to open 130 mental health clinics around Australia).

Our Investment Emyria (ASX:EMD) is the first company in Australia to have the regulatory approval to deliver psychedelic assisted therapies for mental health conditions like PTSD.

Recently, Medibank signed an agreement with EMD to cover the cost of psychedelic assisted therapy for PTSD.

We believe that as the success of the Medibank-EMD partnership grows, more insurance company payers will fund treatment for their members.

The insurance companies are hurting and EMD is presenting a solution.

Guinea bauxite exports up 36% to 99.8 million tons on Chinese demand (Reuters)

It's clear from the export numbers that China wants more bauxite.

Bauxite is an input to aluminium, which is a key industrial metal.

Reporting on the first half of the year "Guinea's shipments represent 24% of 2024's global supply - quite remarkable by all standards."

Even though Guinea has pressured bauxite producers to refine locally after decades of exporting the raw material - a lot of ore is still being sold to China.

Because of how much bauxite China buys from Guinea (around 199 million tonnes each year) and because of how reliant its aluminium industry is on these exports - we think that China will be open to other sauces of bauxite.

A solution to the baxuite supply concentration in Guinea is Cameroon, where our 2025 Wise-Owl Pick of the Year Canyon Resources (ASX:CAY) has one of the world’s largest bauxite deposits.

CAY is firmly in the development phase, and is set to deliver its first shipment of bauxite by early next year.

AML3D (ASX:AL3): Pivotal role in US defence industrial base (AL3, Bell Potter)

Exosome Tech Leader: Next-Gen Diagnostics and Therapeutics (IIQ, MST Access)

IIQ will host a webinar on on Monday at 3PM AEST hosted by MST Access, you can register for the webinar here.

A Hidden Treasure in the Sierra Madre | Mithril Silver & Gold Site Visit (MTH, Ventrum Capital Markets)

Trump Vs Gold | Webinar Replay!

A word of caution...

While we aim to highlight developments in the small cap space, investing in early-stage and small cap companies - like those we cover - is inherently risky.

These companies often face funding challenges, regulatory hurdles, and market volatility. Announcements may reflect aspirations more than guaranteed outcomes.

Things can, and often do, change.

Just because a company has signed a deal, released drill results, or appointed a new director doesn’t mean success is assured.

Always assume delays, cost overruns, or results that don’t pan out.

We’re here to share insights, not offer personal financial advice - so please do your own research and speak with a licensed adviser before acting on anything mentioned.

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Bye for now.