BREAKING: Trump signs executive forcing US military suppliers to source critical minerals from inside US borders

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Remember how we never shut up about the USA urgently needing to secure domestic supply of critical minerals?

(how many times have we said “the USA needs this critical mineral for military/advanced weapons/AI, but USA has no domestic supply, and China controls nearly all global supply”)

And over the last couple of years we have added a bunch of stocks with USA based critical projects to our Portfolio?

🚨BREAKING NEWS:

Yesterday US president Donald Trump signed a critical minerals Executive Order:

"Securing America's Defense Supply Chains and Ensuring Domestic Acquisition of Critical Materials".

(Read the full Executive Order here)

What it means:

What it means for the trillion dollar US military Industrial complex (i.e. companies that supply the US military): these companies can no longer get the required US government waiver allowing importing of critical minerals from non-compliant sources (i.e. China)...

UNLESS they demonstrate SERIOUS efforts to source these critical minerals domestically INSIDE US borders first.

So the trillion $ machine that is the USA military industrial complex has suddenly been told, by the US President, to urgently prioritise domestic USA supply of critical minerals.

And not just told... there are now real, financial AND legal repercussions IF they don’t... (more on this in a second)

What it means for our Portfolio stocks with USA based critical minerals projects: in the near to medium term, for US military suppliers to get the US govt waivers they will need to import critical minerals, FIRST they need to demonstrate SERIOUS efforts to procure domestic supply...

Which we think means finding “up and coming” US based critical minerals projects, and:

• Early testing and qualification of mineral samples
• Paying for test work, pilot plants, and sample programs.
• Signing offtakes agreements (with pre-payments)
• Capital injections (equity investment and other project financing) to secure this future domestic supply

So for our critical minerals stocks, we could see a long term offtake agreement with a $ pre-payment upfront from a major military supplier?

Or funding a demonstration plant?

Maybe even mine build financing? Who knows?

Urgency is what moves money into small cap stocks like these - and now major US military contractors can no longer sit on their hands and just file paperwork.

This money is a tiny drop in the ocean for them, but a company making cash injection for our small stocks to fast track their US based critical mineral project.

Our US critical minerals Investments and links to our Investment Memo for each one:

• ION - Rare earths recycling tech in Oklahoma. (read our Investment Memo)
  
  
• RML - Antimony, tungsten + gold in Idaho. (read our Investment Memo)
  
  
• VKA - Tungsten in Nevada. (read our Investment Memo)
  
  
• OD6 - Fluorspar in Nevada (+ rare earths in WA). (read our Investment Memo)
  
  
• AW1 - Indium, gallium, germanium + copper in Utah. (read our Investment Memo)
  
  
• SS1 - Silver + (potentially antimony) in Nevada. (read our Investment Memo)
  
  
• BKB - Silver in Texas (+ gold in Nevada). (read our Investment Memo)
  
  
• RCM - Gallium and Germanium in Canada. (read our Investment Memo)
  
  
• LKY - Antimony + rare earths in California. (read our Investment Memo)
  
  
• LSR - Heavy rare earths in Arizona. (read our Investment Memo)
  
  
• PFE - Antimony + silver in Arkansas. (read our Investment Memo)

(source)(source)(source)

First... How did we get here?

40 years ago the USA was the undisputed world power and pushing globalisation (outsourcing manufacturing and mining to cheaper countries).

China happily took the work, and slowly but surely became the world's dominant supplier and refiner of critical minerals.

(which nobody really cared about until suddenly critical minerals were required for advanced technologies in global buildouts of military, AI and robotics).

This was fine until about 5 years ago when the US narrative changed from “cheap overseas goods are great” to “overreliance on one trading partner is bad”.

(especially in nationally strategic industries)

AND everything went up a gear when China started challenging the USA as the world’s most powerful country...

And started withholding supply of these critical minerals to gain leverage in geopolitical stoushes.

Historically, US defence contractors have bought critical minerals from China for years, using US government-issued "waivers".

From 1 January 2027, those “permission slips” will effectively stop being issued.

To get one after that, a US defence contractor needs to show the Pentagon a plan on how it will REMOVE non-compliant (ie Chinese) materials from its supply chain.

Pulled from the Executive Order - here is what contractors have to show:

To get a waiver after Jan 1, 2027, they need an approved mitigation plan that:

1. Names the non-compliant (ie. Chinese) source they're using.
2. Documents "exhaustive efforts" to find compliant material — or proves none existed when they bought.
3. Spells out the steps to strip that material from their supply chain.
4. Commits to a strict timeline for doing it.

The key kicker - Section 2(c):

"We couldn't find a domestic supplier" no longer counts as an excuse if you simply didn’t try that hard to find one.

US defence contractors will need to show they are actively trying to find a domestic supplier - meaning actual money spent on finding new suppliers.

On top of that, contractors must:

Map their entire supply chain - tracing back to where the raw materials came from AND they must vet suppliers for financial health, foreign ownership/control, and supply risk.

They must also switch away from "unreliable foreign suppliers" OR risk losing task orders, contract options, or the whole contract.

Taking too long on the proposed mitigation plan or blowing off the timeline - it can be referred to the Attorney General for prosecution.

(that’s one way to create urgency)

One nice carve-out from the Executive Order are projects:

1. Backed by US government money - funded by the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM), the Development Finance Corporation, or the Departments of Energy, Commerce, State or War etc. etc.
   
2. Included in "Project Vault" - the US government's new strategic critical minerals stockpile.

(again, you can Read the full Executive Order here)

Long story short the US government is forcing the world’s biggest weapon makers to source raw materials from US backed mines, processors and government backed assets.

And most USA critical minerals projects are “yet to be built”... (like the ones we are Invested in)

We predicted something like this was coming...

The US-Iran war has been smashing down the US munitions stockpiles. (source)

And four weeks ago, Trump hosted the CEOs of the biggest US munitions makers at the White House asking them to start ramping up production - the second meeting of its kind this year.

Trump wanted Lockheed Martin to TRIPLE production of Patriot missile interceptors (and quadruple THAAD production), and for RTX to ramp up Tomahawk production.

(source)(source)

Trump even pulled the car makers into it.

Ford and General Motors are in talks with the defence primes to switch factory lines across to help build Patriot and Tomahawk missiles.

In Trump's own words:

"General Motors is all excited about building weapons now." (source)

(source)

(the last time American car factories were converted to build weapons at this scale was World War 2)

All of that happened only a few days after China added 10 US companies to its export control blacklist - cutting them off from buying Chinese critical minerals and "dual-use" materials.

(source)

So why the sudden urgency to force capital from defence contractors into critical minerals projects located inside US borders?

Because China controls almost all of the mined and refined supply of the metals that go into modern weapons.

(source)

And on the 10th of November 2026 China's one-year "suspension" of its critical minerals export controls expires.

IF that suspension lapses... full restrictions come back into force for the minerals below:

(source - download the full report here)

Remember when we said we think the US critical minerals macro theme is still in its early stages. (source - our August 2025 note)

And that the thematic won't reach its top until the big defence contractors start allocating capital into the space?

We said back then:

(source)

Anyone who was around the lithium boom will remember when car makers started going upstream to secure raw materials supply?

General Motors put US$650M directly into Lithium Americas. (source)

Stellantis paid US$90M for ~20% of Argentina Lithium. (source)

Tesla and Ford signed offtake deals with ASX lithium juniors (a few of them became billion dollar companies)

We think that all starts to happen now in the US critical minerals macro thematic.

We expect to see Defence contractors doing similar deals with critical minerals companies.

Not only because they need to (and the US needs them to) but because their contracts become AT RISK on the 1st of January 2027.

(right on cue - when the market least expects it and has sold down US critical minerals stock heavily in the past few months)

Why we think capital is going to flow into US critical minerals in a big way...

Firstly because export restrictions from China AND no way of securing local supply put at risk critical outputs like munitions...

To get an idea of the extent of it though export restrictions on rare earths alone could put at risk ~US$6.5 TRILLION of downstream production.

A problem that can be avoided with US$900M in stockpiling on something that makes up a tiny % of the end product value

Check out the rare earths one below - tripling prices impacts 0.1% of the value of the end product.

So if the trade off is 10x rare earths prices and the government needs to pay 0.3% more for its F-35 fighter jets... the question really does answer itself.

(basically, throwing whatever money you have to, so the problem is fixed)

The second reason why we think the US critical mineral funding deals are going to become more commonplace is because the US has seen that it works...

Like with rare earths - over the past two years the US government threw targeted policy AND capital at the problem - the Pentagon's MP Materials deal, price floors, offtakes, funding... etc

(source)(source)(source)

Rare earths was the only critical mineral where China's share of global refining actually went DOWN in 2025. (source)

The US has seen targeted policy + capital = works in solving the critical mineral dependency problem.

Which is why we expect targeted policy (some sort of US coordinated push) + capital (funding/investments) to be deployed across all of the other critical minerals.

Antimony, tungsten, indium, gallium, germanium, fluorspar...

Even silver and copper (both officially added to the US critical minerals list in November 2025. (source)

We think the most obvious (first order) winners will be companies with projects inside the USA that have a realistic pathway of bringing supply online...

Here are all of our US critical minerals Investments - the stocks we think can win from this

Below is every stock in our Portfolio with exposure to US critical minerals.

Our US critical minerals Investments:

• ION - Rare earths recycling tech in Oklahoma.
• RML - Antimony, tungsten + gold in Idaho.
• VKA - Tungsten in Nevada.
• OD6 - Fluorspar in Nevada (+ rare earths in WA).
• AW1 - Indium, gallium, germanium + copper in Utah.
• SS1 - Silver + (potentially antimony) in Nevada.
• BKB - Silver in Texas (+ gold in Nevada).
• RCM - Gallium and Germanium in Canada.
• LKY - Antimony + rare earths in California.
• LSR - Heavy rare earths in Arizona.
• PFE - Antimony + silver in Arkansas.

In the rest of today’s note we will outline what each company does and how it's exposed to yesterday’s Executive Order.

Starting with the one we think COULD be a dark horse for “first into production”...

Iondrive (ASX:ION)

Commodities: Rare earths recycling (including heavy rare earths)

Commodity use cases: Permanent magnets in missiles, drones, fighter jets.

Location: Adelaide (tech) - first US rare earths facility planned for Oklahoma

Enterprise Value: $40.0M (Market cap $48.0M, $8.0M Cash)

ION is developing “Deep Eutectic Solvent” recycling technology - a non-toxic, biodegradable liquid that can process and recover critical minerals (including rare earths out of old magnets and e-waste).

ION’s most advanced workstream is in rare earths.

Last month the Oklahoma Department of Commerce issued a letter of support worth ~US$5.2M in incentives - scaling to US$15M+ for ION's first US rare earth recycling facility. (source)

Remember the Executive Order carve-out: supply from projects supported by the Department of Commerce (and Energy, and War) is explicitly protected.

ION also has a binding feedstock agreement with Colt Recycling which is a member of the US Defense Industrial Base Consortium AND is one of the biggest e-waste recyclers in the US.

This week ION appointed Dr Grant Caffery - BHP's former head of innovation - as CEO to lead the commercial rollout.

We think ION is a dark horse for “first into production” because recycling could be the FASTEST route to new non-China rare earths supply...

The "one image" story:

(source)

Read our latest ION note: ION: announces US$15M in support to build heavy rare earth recycling module in Oklahoma, USA. G7 summit says rare earths urgent.

Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML)

Commodities: Antimony, tungsten, gold, silver

Commodity use cases: Bullets, armour-piercing rounds, ammunition primers

Location: Idaho, USA

Enterprise Value: $92.3M (Market cap $100.4M, $8.2m Cash) (+$9.2M from capital raise settled post quarter)

RML's project sits right next door to ~$3.5BN Perpetua Resources.

Perpetua is the company the US government hand-picked to restart American antimony production - backing it with Defense Production Act funding AND a US$1.8BN EXIM letter of interest.

RML’s two projects both have FAST-41 status from the US government.

(FAST-41 is designed to streamline, coordinate, and accelerate environmental reviews and permitting for large-scale US based projects deemed to be in the national interest.)

RML’s theory is that the same geological structures that host Perpetua’s resource, COULD host similar deposits on its ground.

Right now RML has two rigs drilling at its gold-tungsten discovery with 16 holes completed and assay results pending right now.

RML is also in the process of listing on the NASDAQ - registration paperwork is already lodged with the SEC.

(good timing if it happens soon - getting itself in front of US investors and US capital after that Executive Order from Trump)

The "one image" story:

Read our latest RML note: RML gets a SECOND FAST-41 status from Trump administration to fast-track nationally strategic antimony and tungsten projects

Viking Mines (ASX:VKA)

Commodities: Tungsten

Commodity use cases: Armour-piercing rounds, missiles, rocket nozzles

Location: Nevada, USA

Enterprise Value: $19.6M (Market cap $24.3M, $4.7M Cash)

Tungsten was actually the single strongest performing critical mineral over the last ~12 months - up ~620%.

VKA owns a historically producing tungsten mine in Nevada that’s been completely untouched for decades.

The project produced tungsten back in the 1950s. (source)

Despite that production history, VKA's project hasn't been drilled in over 40 years.

Any day now, VKA will start drilling and at the same time is also working toward a rapid restart of its tungsten project in Nevada, USA...

As of this morning (22nd July in Australia), the rig is actually on its way to site:

(source)

VKA’s project is a ~275km drive from the brand-new US$12BN US critical minerals stockpile at the Hawthorne Army Depot in Nevada...

We think any company that can show a credible pathway to a domestic US tungsten supply - AND show that its project has scale - will be in a strong position to attract US government backing.

And VKA has major catalysts dropping on both fronts inside the next few months...

The "one image" story:

(source)

Read our latest VKA note: VKA: First drilling at USA tungsten project in over 40 years. Tungsten price hits new all-time highs. Trumps invest in a tungsten mine.

OD6 Metals (ASX:OD6)

Commodities: Fluorspar (+ rare earths)

Commodity use cases: Missiles, military electronics, jet fuel, semiconductors

Location: Nevada, USA (+ WA, Australia)

Enterprise Value: $25.1M (Market cap $28.3M, $3.2M Cash)

The USA is 100% import-reliant on acid-grade fluorspar (the type that goes into military/high tech manufacturing).

OD6's project in Nevada is built around several open pits that previously produced fluorspar for the US back in the 1950s.

Last month OD6 expanded Quinn from 48 to 226 claims across seven target areas. (source)

And since picking up the project, OD6 has acquired historical data (that belonged to one of the USA’s biggest chemical companies - Union Carbide) with drill results confirming fluorspar at depth AND testwork showing that the material can be upgraded into acid-grade product.

We are Invested in OD6 to see it land some sort of US government funding deal - similar to the US$250M + purchase contract another Nevada based flurospar company (listed in Canada) received.

OD6 also has one of Australia's largest clay-hosted rare earths deposits in WA - we are mainly in OD6 for the Fluorspar, but this is a nice one to have in the back pocket.

The "one image" story:

(source)

Read our latest OD6 note: OD6: Pulls out “exceptional high grade fluorspar mineralisation from surface” card

American West Metals (ASX:AW1)

Commodities: Indium, gallium, germanium, copper, zinc

Commodity use cases: Heat-seeking missiles, semiconductors, fighter jet displays

Location: Utah, USA

Enterprise Value: $33.3M (Market cap $38.1M, $4.8m Cash) (+$10M capital raise settled post quarter)

The USA has ZERO domestic indium production.

AW1 holds the biggest undeveloped JORC indium resource in the USA.

(It’s actually the only project inside US borders with a JORC indium resource)

AW1’s project also contains some gallium and germanium - two metals China banned outright from export to the USA back in December 2024 - but the main reason we are here is for the indium.

AW1 is drilling its project right now and last month hit a new discovery hole ~430m east of the existing resource - opening up what looks like a 4km mineralised corridor. (source)

AND only ~35% of the old drilling on the project was ever assayed for indium. (source)

So the biggest of its kind in the USA... could actually be a lot bigger.

AW1 also has a very advanced copper project in Canada AND Allied-nation supply also counts under the US definition of "domestic and allied sourcing"...

So that asset could come into play at some point too - for now though the US critical minerals exposure is through its indium asset.

The "one image" story:

(source)

Read our latest AW1 note: Just 3 days ago China tightened indium export checks and threatened export controls. AW1 has the biggest indium resource in the USA.

Sun Silver (ASX:SS1)

Commodities: Silver + antimony

Commodity use cases: Torpedo and missile batteries, solar panels, ammunition

Location: Nevada, USA

Enterprise Value: $131.7M (Market cap $159.2M, $27.5M Cash)

SS1 holds the biggest pre-production silver resource in the USA - ~539 million ounces of silver equivalent at 71 g/t.

And as of November last year, silver is OFFICIALLY a US critical mineral.

The part we think SS1 has yet to fully define is the antimony upside on its resource.

Re-assaying of old drill cores AND assays from new drilling keep confirming antimony mineralisation throughout SS1’s existing resource footprint.

And SS1 has previously said it is working towards a “maiden JORC antimony resource” for its project. (source)

IF that happens, SS1’s project would become the USA's biggest pre-production silver resource with antimony to go with it.

SS1 is drilling its project right now...

The "one image" story:

(source - Canetoad.ai) (source)

Read our latest SS1 note: SS1: Giant USA silver resource. NEW: metwork demonstrates conventional processing and excellent recoveries

Black Bear Minerals (ASX:BKB)

Commodities: Silver (+ gold)

Commodity use cases: Military electronics, satellites, solar panels

Location: Texas, USA (+ Nevada, USA)

Enterprise Value: $63.5M (Market cap $72.4M, $8.9M Cash)

Yesterday's Executive Order is ultimately about one thing: SPEED.

The Pentagon wants new domestic supply as fast as possible.

And the fastest route to new US production is by restarting something that was already built.

BKB’s silver project in Texas comes with ~US$150M of infrastructure already sitting on site (processing plant, shaft, camp - the lot).

The project has a foreign estimate of 17.6Moz at 289 g/t silver, and BKB is working through an engineering study for a rapid restart while drilling to convert the resource to JORC.

A few months ago, BKB received a non-binding letter of support from the Australian government to help fund the “rapid restart” of its silver mine. (source)

The "one image" story:

(source)

Read our latest BKB note: Australian Government funding USA mining projects? All hands on deck for this urgent national security issue.

Locksley Resources (ASX:LKY)

Commodities: Antimony + rare earths

Commodity use cases: Ammunition, armour, missile magnets

Location: California, USA

Enterprise Value: $3.9M (Market cap $20.6M, $16.7M Cash)

LKY's ground sits ~1.4km from ~$12BN MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine - the only operating rare earths mine in the USA.

MP Materials is the company the Pentagon took direct equity in, Apple signed a US$500M deal with and that China just blacklisted from buying Chinese materials.

In March, LKY produced 99.5% purity antimony trioxide from material taken from its own project and before that produced an antimony ingot (the first from US sourced ore with US processing in decades). (source)

LKY holds a US$191M letter of interest from the US Export Import Bank (EXIM) for its project:

(source)

Remember the carve-out in yesterday's Executive Order? Defence contractors are explicitly protected when they buy from EXIM-backed projects...

LKY has drilled both its rare earths and antimony projects this year and hit mineralisation in both programs.

LKY is also developing processing tech for rare earths and antimony in partnerships with Rice University and Columbia University.

The "one image" story:

(source)

Read our latest LKY note: LKY: Produces 99.5% antimony trioxide. Used in ~72% of military equipment. 100% USA sourced. First on the ASX.

Rapid Critical Metals (ASX:RCM)

Commodities: Gallium & Germanium

Commodity use cases: Military radars, night vision, missile guidance

Location: British Columbia, Canada

Enterprise Value: $29.5M (Market cap $38.3M, $8.7M Cash)

RCM's project has some of the highest germanium grades recorded globally (albeit from rock chip samples).

RCM’s project is in Canada - which counts for the purposes of US critical minerals exposure because Trump's Executive Order protects "domestic AND allied" sourcing.

Gallium and germanium are the two metals China banned outright from export to the USA back in December 2024.

Gallium comes out as a byproduct of refining bauxite into aluminium... germanium as a byproduct of zinc smelting.

(which is exactly how China - the world's biggest aluminium and zinc refiner - ended up controlling both)

Last month RCM secured a drill permit for the project covering up to ~50 drill sites.

And RCM’s first drill program should be starting any day now.

The "one image" story:

(source)

Read our latest RCM note: RCM: Gallium and Germanium? Permits in, drilling commencing in a few weeks... while we wait for moonshot silver drill results

Lodestar Minerals (ASX:LSR)

Commodities: Heavy rare earths

Commodity use cases: Missiles, fighter jets, drones, submarine sonar

Location: Arizona, USA

Enterprise Value: ~$5M (Market cap $11.7M, $1.7M Cash +$4.7M raised)

Heavy rare earths are where the US has the biggest supply chain risk.

China controls almost all of the world's heavy rare earths processing.

(the "heavies" - like dysprosium and terbium - are the ones that make magnets work at high temperatures)

LSR's project in Arizona has returned rock chips containing ALL 12 of the heavy rare earths on China's export restriction list.

Last week LSR expanded its land position by ~40% and reported more rock chips (grades up to 14.68% TREO with a ~59% heavy rare earth concentration). (source)

The mineralisation is hosted in xenotime - one of the few heavy rare earth minerals where the west has a proven commercial processing pathway.

LSR is pre-drilling, so this is one of the earliest-stage rare earths Investments in our Portfolio.

The "one image" story:

(source)

Read our latest LSR note: LSR: unexplained share price run forces “visible copper” results release while drill hole is still in progress - Approaching main target now

Pantera Minerals (ASX:PFE)

Commodities: Antimony-silver + (lithium)

Commodity use cases: Ammunition, tracer rounds, armour and batteries

Location: Arkansas, USA

Enterprise Value: ~$7.4M (Market cap $8.4M, $0.9m Cash + A$2M payment due this month)

PFE is the smallest and earliest stage of our antimony-silver exposure.

Its project in Arkansas covers an area that was mined for antimony as far back as 1877 - but never been drilled in decades.

PFE’s first drill program is planned for this quarter - the first drill holes into a ~149 year old antimony producer...

PFE also recently sold its US lithium asset to private US company EnergyX in a deal worth ~$40M.

PFE still holds those shares (though they are not liquid) and based on EnergyX’s most recent funding round that stake could be worth ~A$43M.

The "one image" story:

Read our latest PFE note: PFE: Announces new USA land package with 18 historic antimony and silver mines...

The usual caution

Like any collection of early-stage exploration and small-cap technology companies, our US critical minerals holdings carry significant risk, here we aim to identify a few more risks.

Many of the exploration companies in our portfolio rely heavily on historical data or pending drill programs, which carry an inherent statistical risk of poor assay results or metallurgical processing complexities.

While for the processing business’ like ION, scaling proprietary technology involves long customer sales cycles and rigorous qualification testing before commercial revenues can materialise.

Small-cap companies in development stages typically experience high cash burn rates, creating an ongoing risk of future capital raises that can dilute existing shareholders.

While US executive orders provide a strong thematic tailwind, government procurement rules and policy directives can suffer from implementation delays, bureaucratic bottlenecks, or political shifts.

Commodity markets for critical minerals remain notoriously volatile, and pricing can be heavily impacted by geopolitical shifts or strategic supply changes from dominant global market players.

All of the companies above are small caps, and most are early-stage explorers - which means they are speculative, volatile, and things can (and regularly do) go wrong: drill results disappoint, funding markets close, timelines slip, and macro themes can take years longer to play out than expected (or fizzle altogether).

A US policy tailwind doesn't guarantee any individual company succeeds - the Executive Order signed yesterday will take years to fully flow through procurement contracts, and there is no certainty that any of our Investments are direct beneficiaries.

Not all of these stocks will work - our strategy relies on one or two big winners paying for the ones that don't.

Investors should consider these risks carefully and seek professional advice tailored to their personal circumstances before investing.