Sunday Edition: 19th July

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd and its associated entities may hold direct or indirect interests in securities referred to in this publication and may receive fees or other forms of consideration from entities mentioned. These interests and arrangements may create a potential conflict of interest in the preparation of this material.

The information contained in this communication is provided for general information purposes only and may relate to speculative investments. It does not constitute financial product advice, and has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider obtaining independent financial advice before making any investment decision.

Any forward-looking statements are uncertain and not a guaranteed outcome.

Below you can find short overviews of all the content we published last week, plus links to each full note.

Further down, there’s also some links to other interesting stuff we came across on our travels around the internet.

Yesterday’s Saturday note: 372 Pages of Confirmation Bias (Thanks IEA)

Quick Takes: RCM, BPM, HAR, ILA, BKB, CND, LSR, TRI, PUR, EMD, PNN

Deep Dives: IVZ, AVM, TG1, RML

Other content: ION, PNN, HTG, IIQ, RML, OD6, PR1, AW1, LSR

RCM delivered 98.7% silver recoveries from its NSW projects.

High recoveries are generally a positive sign for project economics as you want to be extracting as much of the valuable metal from the ground as is reasonable to do so (weighing up time and cost).

So seeing recoveries at 98.7% at this early stage is a good sign for RCM, usually, at this stage a ~70% recovery rate would be a win.

RCM also has a scoping study underway right now - so those recovery rates will go directly into that.

(source)

BPM commits to 20,000m of drilling across its WA gold projects.

BPM will be drilling:

1. Its existing Beachcomber discovery - ~10,000m of infill and extensional drilling, starting in late July going for a maiden resource on the project.
2. Its moonshot exploration targets Bonnie & Clyde - ~10,000m drilling the ~6Km long, undrilled gold in soil anomaly starting August.

So we could see BPM announce a first resource on its project AND have a crack at a big new discovery over the next 6-9 months.

We are especially looking forward to drilling at Bonnie & Clyde, the ~6km long gold-in-soil anomaly that’s never been drill tested.

The target is most similar in style to Regis and AngloGold Ashanti’s Tropicana and Benz’s more recent discovery, Glenburgh:

(source)

HAR extended its shallow, high grade gold discovery in Senegal.

This is the same project that HAR hit ~20m at 6g/t gold on and started its rally up to a peak 20c share price late last year.

(past performance is not an indicator of future performance)

This week HAR completed an 19-hole RC program and extended the shallow gold discovery with a peak result of 14m at 7.29g/t gold.

The gold is shallow and in the same type of rocks that could be mined using the same (relatively) easy processing style as the gold resources already being mined across this part of West Africa.

With the region full of established operations, there could be an opportunity down the track for HAR to get its ore processed off site (rather than building its own plant).

Here is where HAR’s project sits relative to a few of the bigger players in the area:

(source)

ILA added a second Marburg study to de-risk its pivotal FDA trial.

ILA now has two agreements signed for dose optimisation studies:

1. With the US Army (USAMRIID) at a BSL-4 lab: USAMRIID doses early (24 to 48 hours after infection), Texas Biomed once symptoms show (day 3 to 5).
   
   
2. With the Texas Biomedical Research Institute to run a second dose optimisation study in 12 primates.

Together they will generate data from 32 primates against the FDA-preferred Angola strain.

ILA is getting ready to advance through the FDA's "Animal Rule" pathway which IF approved could unlock US stockpiling deals (averaging ~US$467M) and/OR a Priority Review Voucher worth around ~US$200M.

(source)

BKB re-assays lifted historic silver grades ahead of JORC resource conversion.

BKB’s project has a 17.5Moz @ 289g/t silver foreign (non-JORC) resource estimate right now.

The results this week took the drillcore that makes up that resource and upgraded the grades - in some cases by ~54% in terms of contained silver.

One hole returned 6.7m @ 408g/t silver versus the 266g/t recorded historically.

Another hole had gold (plus lead and zinc) - another solid sign considering BKB’s project has produced gold in the past before too.

Hopefully that means a stronger JORC resource estimate than the market expects AND it can underpin a strong BKB restart plan.

(source)

CND completed a feasibility study on its 1.1TCF (2c) gas discovery.

The study shows that CND’s gas discovery can:

• Be developed using simple, proven technology - a shallow water platform with a ~15km pipeline back to shore without any complex or expensive deepwater infrastructure.
  
  
• Start small and scale up as gas customers are signed - one platform delivering 30-80 million cubic feet of gas per day, or two platforms delivering 100-150 million.

Visually, it would look something like this - (the image is from a CND investor presentation from earlier in the year):

(source)

Now we wait for CND to convert its 100% held Technical Evaluation Agreement over its block into a full exploration licence (which we think opens up deals on this asset).

LSR expands US rare earths ground 40%, picks up highest grade rock chips yet.

LSR’s project will now cover ~175m of surface mineralisation (outcropping) and ~5km of strike.

Only as of this week, LSR’s ground covers more ground to the north of that 5km strike zone.

LSR also included new rock chip samples from the project with grades up to 14.68% TREO (including 0.76% dysprosium oxide) at 59% heavy rare earth concentration, the strongest result LSR has returned from this project.

(source)

TRI secured product supply for Phase 1 brain cancer imaging trial - trial on track to start this calendar year.

TRI is developing non-invasive brain cancer imaging technology - trying to solve the early detection issue that the current standard of care has.

More specifically, TRI is aiming to help find cancer before it's big enough for a standard MRI to see in the brain.

TRI’s tech works as follows:

• A patient swallows a small dose of a compound (a non-radioactive stable isotope).
• The stable isotope is taken up by “replicating cells” (these are the cancerous cells).
• A standard MRI machine then "sees" the labelled cells, because stable isotopes have slightly different magnetic properties from their normal counterparts.

After this week’s news, TRI will have the necessary material to start dosing human volunteers, keeping the upcoming clinical program on schedule for later this year.

The trial will be the first time TRI’s tech gets tested in humans.

(source)

PUR recovered brine samples from its lithium project in Argentina - assays pending.

The blue sky exploration upside for PUR is IF the brine reservoirs inside the salt lake (where PUR’s existing resource sits) extend underground into the blocks on the margins of the salt lake.

This is where PUR is drilling right now AND where PUR recovered the brine samples (~156m to 180m depth).

So the brines are there... we just don't know if there is lithium in them (YET) - assays from the brines are pending right now.

We also noticed the hole is planned to a target depth of 700m, so will be testing through most of the 1km deep conductive system revealed from the geophysics.

(source)

$1.5 trillion Eli Lilly moved into psychedelics - what does it mean for EMD?

Big news in the psychedelic space this week - Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) will pay up to US$3.8BN to acquire psychedelic drug maker AtaiBeckley.

Eli Lilly is currently the biggest pharma company in the world - check out this 4 minute video to see how it did it.

Eli Lilly was the biggest winner from the GLP-1s - weight loss drugs like Zepbound, Mounjaro (FDA approved) and Retatrutide (set to be filed for FDA approval this year).

Eli Lilly’s acquisition of a psychedelic drug maker validates the entire psychedelics sector.

IF Eli Lilly coming into the space leads to more approved psychedelic drugs it could require more specialised delivery specialists... like EMD.

EMD is delivering therapies at commercial-scale clinics across Australia with a fifth location opening this quarter.

(source)(source)(source)(source)

PNN appointed a US-based director as it assesses potential NASDAQ listing.

A US listing could be big for PNN - getting on the NASDAQ is something we think has been a success for most ASX critical minerals stocks who were able to make it happen.

Mainly because of the interest coming out of the US for critical minerals assets.

Meanwhile, PNN is actively progressing its maiden drill program at the Morro do Ferro project in Brazil.

AND CEO Alistair Stephens and Business Director Luiz Curado met key Washington D.C. stakeholders to present PNN’s rare earths project.

(source) (source)

Invictus Energy (ASX:IVZ)

Last Monday, we woke up to the oil price delivering a big green candle:

(source)

Hopefully it's a small sign that the “small cap exploration gods” will be smiling on Invictus Energy (ASX:IVZ) over the coming months as it charges toward another big exploration drilling event.

It’s starting to look like the “three ingredients for a pre-drill share price run up” could be on for IVZ:

1. Visible drill progress (rig contract, mobilisation, firm spud date) - Last week IVZ started mobilisation for its 2026 well. (source)
2. Macro thematic cooperation (Oil and gas on the market's radar) - see that pic from above... but who knows what will happen next.
3. A credible timeline (a drill within the next 6 months) - IVZ’s most recent announcement says drilling to begin this half (but also buried on an image in page 4 it says Q32026) for its next well.

Of course no one knows for sure what will happen with oil prices - it's all speculation.

However, as long as the oil price is trading at or above US$80-100/barrel, we think the market could show a lot of interest in IVZ’s 2026 well.

After a few years quietly getting Zimbabwe’s only PPSA (Petroleum Production Sharing Agreement) tidied up and locked away...

And before that, making two hydrocarbon discoveries in 2022 and 2023 - Zimbabwe's first ever oil and gas discovery.

(and Sub-Saharan Africa’s second largest discovery of 2023 at ~1.3 Tcf gas / ~230M barrels of oil equivalent)

With a PPSA in hand, IVZ has unlocked the ~5.5 billion barrel equivalent (gross mean unrisked estimate) Cabora Bassa Basin in Zimbabwe.

Yes... an ASX small cap IVZ holds the keys to one of the last unexplored basins in Africa.

And now... IVZ is weeks away from drilling its third exploration well - the first in two years.

(source)

Read more: Oil surging. IVZ set for big drilling event this half. Meme stock re-activation coming?

Watch more: IVZ’s MD Scott Macmillan also put out a brief video update this week Invictus Energy | Operation update May 2026

Advance Metals (ASX:AVM)

A quick lesson in minerals exploration stock investing 101.

Have you ever noticed how in a multi-hole exploration drill program, generally all the drill results come out at the same time, once the drill program is finished (sometimes well after)?

And often end up being “ok” or just a “technical success”?

Q: How do you know when a minerals exploration program is actually REALLY on to something potentially big?

A: When the company releases assay results per hole, as soon as each assay result comes in from the testing lab.

Watch the company’s timing and frequency of drill result releases... more than what it says.

(if results aren’t significant or “material”, the company doesn't have to announce them and can sit on them until the drill program is finished, releasing them all at once at the end... perhaps buying time to look for a new asset to explore...?)

The OPPOSITE is if the company is banging in material drill hits on every single hole...

and rushing to release assays on each new hole the minute they are received.

When a company is REALLY on to something exciting... you can bet you will be seeing material drill results released on a hole by hole basis - the second they hit the company’s inbox from the testing lab.

Which is what we have seen so far with Advance Metals (ASX:AVM) in their current drill campaign.

69 (hehe) days ago started drilling its highest grade, least drilled project in Mexico - Gavilanes, which has a 22.4Moz silver equivalent resource at 246g/t (foreign resource estimate).

Initially AVM’s plan was to convert the foreign resource into a JORC compliant one... and test for extensions to its silver resource.

40 days ago - results from the first hole - a solid start worth releasing, with the high grade silver we expected to see (33.9m at 220g/t silver) but nothing legitimately face-melting yet.

13 days ago - Here we go, AVM announced the second drill hole assays came out showing more shallow silver with grades increasing.

AND a 55m copper intercept deeper down - NOW this is getting very interesting - we could sense the underlying excitement in the management commentary in that announcement, albeit cautiously worded.

ON TUESDAY, Third hole results announced - OK now it's getting VERY interesting - more high grade silver in the shallow section of the hole...

AND another 37.5m hit with 83g/t silver, 0.8g/t gold and 0.6% copper and a ~50m extension to the previous hole.

(The highest copper-gold-base metals grades from the project to date)

Now the word “DISCOVERY” has started slowly, conservatively, creeping into management commentary:

AVM: “Suggesting the potential for a significant polymetallic discovery at Gavilanes”

(source)

BONUS - This third hole announced today ended in mineralisation after getting stuck in a “small void” ~100m short of the target depth.

This means that they had to stop drilling just when they were in the chunky bit of the mineralisation... who knows what could have been further down over the next 100m?

So what’s next?

AVM has ALREADY FINISHED drilling the next hole (number 4) and the core is currently in the lab getting tested.

We should see this result come out in the next week or two.

(estimate based on how long the other AVM drill results took)

Read more: AVM: Drill result shows new significant copper-gold-silver discovery emerging... bring on holes 4 and 5

And here’s the AVM drill team on site preparing the drill pad and equipment ahead of drilling commencing at hole 5:

TechGen Metals (ASX:TG1)

Just look at these massive, glorious blobs:

(source)

TechGen Metals (ASX:TG1)’s moonshot copper exploration drilling is about to start any day now....

After two years of preparation and permitting.

We are Invested in microcap TG1 to see it try to make a large new copper discovery, which could re-rate the company multiple times over from its current ~$13.7M market cap.

Of course this is high risk small cap exploration - TG1 might not find any economic mineralisation in the upcoming drilling.

Copper is used to transport electricity - plus it is critical in electricity hungry technologies like AI datacentres, robots, advanced weapons, power grids and now even in solar panels.

Trillions of dollars have been raised to fund the global buildouts of these rapidly emerging advanced technologies.

Now all of that money can be spent on building... which means buying materials to build with.

This is expected to spike copper demand.

Billionaire mining superstar Robert Friedland reckons the world is going to need SIX new Tier 1 copper mines PER YEAR, every year, to 2050.

(right now about ONE gets built per year - the world clearly needs more new copper discoveries)

In the coming weeks we should find out if TG1 can deliver a brand new tier 1 copper discovery, and contribute to one of these urgently needed copper mines.

(or announce a couple of dusters - ie drill but no copper found, that is where the risk-reward tradeoff is)

Read more: TG1: Moonshot copper drilling to start any day now... into some massive blobs

Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML)

A US government “FAST-41 status” is a special accelerated USA permitting and development framework for projects considered “critical” and essential for US national security.

It's the US government's way of trying to fast track the build of nationally strategic, USA based critical minerals mining projects.

The equivalent of the US federal government saying "this project matters - everyone get out of its way so they can build it quickly".

(from a permitting and building perspective).

These FAST-41 awards are aimed at fulfilling the US President's Executive Order 14241 on Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production. (source)

Only ~50 projects had been awarded FAST-41 status by the US government since the program's inception in 2015 through to 2025.

Our Investment Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML) now has TWO US based critical mineral projects that have been designated FAST-41 by the US government:

1. 3 months ago: RML’s antimony, gold and silver project got awarded FAST 41 status.
   
2. FRIDAY MORNING: RML announces that its tungsten and gold project has ALSO been awarded FAST 41 status. (read it here)

RML’s wider gold-antimony-tungsten project in Idaho historically produced tungsten and antimony during WW1, WW2 and the Korean War.

A few weeks back RML announced that it was 16 holes into a ~45 hole drill campaign - so we should be seeing the first batches of drill results any day now (more on this in a second).

Both the critical military minerals antimony and tungsten are used in missiles, bullets and other military weapons systems and vehicles.

China dominates the global supply of both.

Around ~18 months ago China started placing export controls on both antimony and tungsten (read: started strategically withholding supply). (source)

Meanwhile the USA is rapidly depleting its missile stockpiles with the Iran conflict still going AND supplying to Ukraine over the last few years

So the USA is depleting munitions on two fronts... AND no longer has access to the critical minerals needed to rebuild its munitions stockpiles.

Check out the headlines we saw last week:

(Source, Source)

Hence the two FAST-41 designations to remove any roadblocks from RML to rapidly try to create new domestic tungsten and antimony supply within USA borders.

RML is right next door to the USA’s biggest antimony deposit owned by $3BN Perpetua Resources (who also has a FAST-41 designation).

Perpetua has a giant gold deposit with a giant antimony resource mixed in with the gold.

RML is currently capped at $102M.

Oh and RML’s planned NASDAQ listing could be launching any week now.

Will we see RML’s market cap climb closer to Perpetua’s with a main board US listing and some more drilling success?

(No guarantees, but we hope so...)

Read more: RML gets a SECOND FAST-41 status from Trump administration to fast-track nationally strategic antimony and tungsten projects

Bloomberg - The IEA warns US$6.5TN of annual downstream production outside China is at risk if Beijing's expanded rare-earth export controls are fully enforced, highlighting the extreme supply concentration risk.

We covered this in our Saturday note yesterday: 372 Pages of Confirmation Bias (Thanks IEA), the report itself can be downloaded from here: Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026

US Dept of War - Announced a US$25M strategic investment in ReElement Technologies to expand domestic critical mineral refining including rare earths at its Indiana facility today.

ReElement is a rare earths recycler, so seeing them get this support could be a positive sign for our critical minerals recycling Investment ION which is also aiming to develop a technology that can produce rare earths elements from recycling.

SMM - Indonesia has officially codified strict export controls on ferronickel and nickel pig iron under Decree No. 32/MK/BC/2026 to transition private trade to state control today.

Crux Investor - Jakarta's ESDM ruled out a broad 2026 nickel quota increase, wrongfooting the market which had priced in supply side strength to cause price weakness.

Bloomberg - Nickel climbed to a three-week high as Fed rate-hike expectations faded and Indonesia's 2026 mining quota policy (reports of a rethink from ~260Mt back toward ~360Mt) clouded the supply outlook.

AFR - Oil traders are again bracing for US$100 crude oil as the US naval blockade on Iran reinstates global supply shocks seen in prior months.

Bloomberg - Escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions threaten global supply chains far beyond oil, jeopardising vital shipments of liquid helium, methanol, and up to 34% of global urea and ammonia fertilizer flows.

FT - China's tightening export controls on critical rare earths like yttrium are fueling global resource nationalism and squeezing Western defence supply chains today.

Reuters - The IEA warns that China's heavy rare earth curbs threaten US$6.5TN in annual downstream industrial output outside China, urging Western states to build a US$9.2BN emergency mineral stockpile.

DIGITIMES - China's top rare-earth suppliers cut Q3 2026 concentrate transfer prices for the first time in eight quarters, offering magnet makers relief though the underlying supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved.

Bloomberg - TSMC beat quarterly estimates (revenue +36%) and raised 2026 capex guidance to US$60-64BN citing sustained AI demand, signalling advanced-node capacity stays booked into 2027.

Mining.com - The IEA says a global sulphuric acid shortage caused by the Hormuz closure & China’s export ban is now threatening mines responsible for over 15% of global primary copper output, adding a fresh structural squeeze into the mix.

Bloomberg - Chile's government convenes Codelco, Antofagasta and Teck to prepare for an “atmospheric river” storm threatening open pits, roads and ports, as Antofagasta reports H1 copper output already down 9.5% to 285,000t on lower grades at two mines.

Breaking Defense - New House GOP reconciliation bill has added US$60BN in defense funding, continuing the munitions-restocking/procurement ramp theme relevant to defence exposed investments.

CNBC - Chinese humanoid-robotics startups (LimX Dynamics, Unitree, etc.) are rushing toward IPOs as they scale production, LimX alone raised US$200M in a pre-IPO round, signalling accelerating capital formation across the humanoid robot supply chain.

PNN - INITIATION REPORT - Building Brazil’s Next Rare Earth Story - Evolution Capital

HTG held a Webinar during the week outlining the forward strategy, you can check the replay out here:

IIQ also held a webinar looking at the recent study and path forward - INOVIQ | EXO-OC Study Outcome Investor Webinar (14 July 2026)

IIQ Webinar slides - Next-generation cancer diagnostics and therapeutics - EXO-OC Test Investor Webinar

RML - Site Visit at the Horse Heaven Project with CEO Craig Lindsay | Resolution Minerals ASX: RML

OD6 posted more of the Hon. Julie Bishop discussing the role her advisory firm (Julie Bishop & Partners) will play supporting OD6 as it progresses the Quinn Fluorspar Project.

There was also some analysis on OD6’s Quinn Fluorspar project from Samso.

PR1 interim CEO Rocco Tassone posted the below which ties its carbon-nanotube-fibre thermal-management strategy to a DARPA ERIS Marketplace awardable opportunity and also the directed energy/beam market:

(link)

AW1 posted this short clip from on site discussing the importance of the first assay result from the drill program, which intersected a thick skarn mineralisation zone and only ~10% of West Desert explored to date.

LSR is active on the Chilean project it is close to drilling within the next week or two, these photos are of a new surface expression of copper oxide mineralisation.

And CEO Coraline Blaud discusses RC drilling assays at Ned's Creek (WA), next steps at Virgin Mountain Rare Earths (US), and Los Loros/Three Saints drilling (Chile) in this interview.

HTG’s new CEO posted with Dr Oleksandra Molloy who won the Academic / Researcher of the Year and Excellence Awards at the Australian Defence Industry Awards held during the week.

Last month HTG brought in Dr Molloy as Defence Strategic Advisor, who will be focused on leading HTG’s European engagements:

A word of caution...

While we aim to highlight developments in the small cap space, investing in early-stage and small cap companies - like those we cover - is inherently risky.

These companies often face funding challenges, regulatory hurdles, and market volatility. Announcements may reflect aspirations more than guaranteed outcomes.

Things can, and often do, change.

Just because a company has signed a deal, released drill results, or appointed a new director doesn’t mean success is assured.

Always assume delays, cost overruns, or results that don’t pan out.

We’re here to share insights, not offer personal financial advice - so please do your own research and speak with a licensed adviser before acting on anything mentioned.

Follow us on social media: X, LinkedIn, Facebook

Bye for now.