We are saying it again - "Not wrong, just early"

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Remember when I said last week that the small end of the markets would start being good this week now that July has started?

Well - they weren't.

Surprise surprise, the guy who, ahem, didn't sell any silver stocks during the January silver mania and record silver prices gets it wrong sometimes.

(time will tell... still waiting for the next leg up in the silver run)

So why didn't the market keep running as predicted?

Even after an excellent first couple of days of July?

I’m going to blame... hmmm - school holidays?

Just like how there was nobody at the usually bustling local swimming pool when I took my kid there on Thursday afternoon, the markets have been trading thinly this week with brokers, finance people and other market participants away with their families.

Everyone is half-checked-out wrangling kids either at home or on holiday somewhere.

All that buying on Thursday and Friday last week was probably retirees and pre long term relationship twenty-something market degenerates, both unaffected by and likely unaware of school breaks.

And that's the trap. Thin markets move fast on low volumes.

Like they did upwards last Thursday and Friday.

And then down this week.

When barely anyone is watching, a single announcement or headline (Iran, a China export ban, a central bank move) can rip prices across the board.

Up OR down.

What we have seen is that the market can turn faster and more suddenly than you think...

So a good couple of days last week but pretty quiet this week - everyone should be back next week, ready for pain or glory...

And if the market DOES start its next bull run next week you can bet I'll be dusting off my “things will be great in July” prediction for a questionable victory lap.

Another consolation trophy in my burgeoning “I wasn’t wrong, I was just early” cabinet.

Speaking of making a prediction that instantly does the opposite of what you said would happen...

(remember: not WRONG... EARLY)

~9 weeks ago we called an “all commodities boom” that would lift all resource stocks.

And explained the BCOM commodities index - a handy chart that tracks a basket of commodities.

Basically when BCOM goes up, it's a commodities bull run, when BCOM goes down, it's bearish on commodities.

Here’s what we said on May 2nd 2026 (9 weeks ago):

So we think we are moving into what the textbooks call a “commodities super cycle”.

Which again, is good for all resource stocks.

Given how overweight we are in early stage resource stocks, and how good an “every commodity boom” would be for our Portfolio...

It was time to find a better way to track “all commodities” than eyeballing the average amount of green on a table.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is the basket index that tracks a bunch of commodities at once (oil, copper, gold, wheat, the lot).

So when it's going up, it means commodities as a whole are running, which is exactly the macro tailwind our resources small caps need.

(read the full article here)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

You can see in the image above from our May 2nd article how the BCOM moving up has driven all our favourite small cap resource stock bull markets over the last 20 years (and even earlier).

(9 weeks ago the BCOM index had just popped above its “early 2020s” post COVID battery metal boom highs - surely the momentum, currency debasement and all the geopolitical macro would now take it higher...)

Literally ~10 days after our prediction that BCOM would keep running, the BCOM index proceeded to start violently shitting the bed for about 7 straight weeks (compounding May and June pain on small ASX stocks):

(source)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Can’t blame Australian school holidays on this one...

However, it's certainly NOT the end of the “all commodity boom” prediction.

These mega commodity runs are measured in years not weeks, and there are pullbacks along the way (just look at the mid-battery boom pullback).

(I would have appreciated if the commodities gods didn't decide to hose down commodities right after I called it though)

The GOOD news is that, since July 1st, the BCOM index has been going up again:

And the theme of today is being right... but early.

And speaking of something crashing straight after you make a prediction of it going up...

It reminds me of when we announced gold was our next big Investment theme on Jan 16th 2023.

And a few weeks later it had fallen 7%:

(source)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

BUT...

Gold did eventually deliver the massive run we predicted... it just took a bit of waiting and a little correction just after our prediction.

(source)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Hopefully BCOM and our “all commodity boom” prediction turns out the same...

(The past performance of our gold run prediction is not an indicator of the future performance of our all commodities boom prediction.)

Speaking of gold...

Gold and silver have been acting strange the last six months.

They are meant to be “safe haven” assets that people run to when markets and geopolitics get spicy and uncertain.

But they have been behaving more like “risk-on” assets.

Crowded trades where people are piling in when FOMO and greed take over, speculating on massive runs, and then selling them off when they get spooked and fear takes over.

i.e., why have gold and silver been going down whenever the Iran conflict flares up... Wars are meant to cause a run IN to precious metals, not out of them?

Be honest - have you been buying gold as a safe haven? Or to make a quick buck because you think gold will go up a lot while EVERYONE ELSE is buying it as a safe haven?

Now times that by everyone like you in the markets.

And add in margin loans and leveraged trades...

We think the last few months have been a speculator washout in gold and silver after the great speculator pile-in of 2025 (that massive silver and gold price spike).

Now we wait for the washout to finish and for the long term gold and silver macro drivers to take over again.

Like central bank buying, war time and fiat currency debasement, safe havens, etc.

...which will then bring back all the speculators again once it starts moving on buying for traditional reasons.

This is where the next run up will come from.

This week we saw reports that Poland is ramping up its gold buying - Poland is right next door to Ukraine, where a war is raging.

Poland is buying gold for all the traditional reasons one would buy and hold gold - war, uncertainty, protection of wealth, not relying on “other countries currency”.

(NOT because the Polish government thinks the gold price is going to rip)

It looks to us like Poland is a first mover on hoarding gold because they are right next door to a war - direct proximity to the uncertainty that comes with it.

(source)

With a war raging next door in Ukraine, Poland seems to be first cab off the rank ramping up gold HODLings.

(we think if the world situation starts wobbling, and more countries start feeling the uncertainty, gold buying will ramp up)

And it's not just a war that drives the buying of gold.

Here are the reasons that central banks would hold gold:

1. Gold is nobody's “liability”

Every other reserve asset - US dollars, euros, US Treasuries - is really just a “promise” from another government.

If you hold US Treasuries, you're trusting America to pay you back and to let you access your money.

Gold is just... gold. A bar in your vault doesn't depend on anyone else honouring anything.

2. It can't be frozen or sanctioned (if you hold it at home)

When Russia invaded Ukraine, the West froze roughly $300 billion of Russia's foreign reserves overnight - money Russia thought was "safe" in Western banks.

Every central bank in the world watched that happen and thought: "that could be us."

Physical gold sitting in your own country can't be switched off by someone else's government.

Notice Poland is holding 105 tonnes at home and repatriating more over time - as we noted above, that's not an accident for a country bordering Ukraine, Belarus and Kaliningrad.

3. It protects against currency debasement

When governments run huge deficits and print money, paper currencies lose purchasing power over time.

Gold can't be printed.

So it acts as insurance against the slow erosion of the dollars and euros that make up the rest of your reserves. This is the "gold isn't going up, the dollar is going down" framing.

4. It's universally accepted in a crisis

In a genuine emergency - war, sanctions, a collapse of trust in a major currency - gold is the one asset every counterparty on earth will still accept.

It's the ultimate "money of last resort."

Poland (next door to a raging war) stocking up for chaos when fiat currencies and treasuries go pear shaped...

Russia is another example of why countries need gold - Russia has been spending its gold reserves hard after sanctions and there was a freeze on their assets held in other countries currencies.

No country can “freeze” gold.

Speaking of geopolitical situations deteriorating...

Over the last 40 years, the USA outsourced all of its mining and processing of rare earths and other critical minerals overseas (to China)... and now it's come back to bite them.

Today China controls nearly all the supply and processing of rare earths, which are needed in building out the advanced technologies that will determine the next global superpower.

We saw the below article in which the USA (who hasn’t been developing any home grown rare earth talent for the last 40 years) started bringing their aging rare earths former superstars out of retirement.

(from back when they had a more vibrant domestic mining and processing industry)

This guy retired 15 years ago, but at 86 has been thrust back into the USA’s current major urgent problem, bringing his valuable rare earths processing knowledge back into the game:

(source)

So the US rare earths scramble continues - good news for our rare earth stocks SGQ and PNN.

The “complex rare earth processing” story is VERY good for our processing/recycling technology stock ION:

ION’s “deep eutectic solvent” technology recovers (recycles) critical minerals and rare earths from “electronic waste” - old electronic equipment, magnets, TVs, phones etc.

A few weeks ago, ION announced it hit 93.5% extraction rates on heavy rare earth dysprosium from e-waste and end-of-life magnets... in the USA.

And then announced US$15M in support to build a heavy rare earth recycling module in Oklahoma, USA.

Right after the G7 Summit said securing non-China rare earths supply is urgent.

Read about all our rare earths stocks here

More “USA stockpiling critical minerals” this week - US$300M of lithium purchases announced.

Yes the BCOM index and commodities had a rough ~7 weeks, but the stories keep rolling in of real money getting thrown to solve the critical minerals problem:

(source)

We are expecting to see more announcements of critical mineral stockpiling purchases across various other critical minerals coming out of the USA (and other G7 countries) in the coming months.

Speaking of stockpiling...

We Invested in biodefence drug maker ILA because its biodefence drug has already been shown to be effective against ~20 viruses in lab tests - many of which sit in the “weaponisable” category

These viruses include Marburg and Ebola, which fall into the weaponisable category, meaning countries will want to maintain a strategic stockpile of a treatment for these viruses.

(like ILA’s drug if they can prove it works.)

ILA is about to run animal trials on Marburg virus to prove their drug is effective.

Marburg and Ebola outbreaks can occur naturally too.

There is currently an Ebola outbreak happening right now in central Africa.

It was declared a “health emergency” by the World Health Organisation (WHO) on May 17, 2026.

Yesterday it was reported that this is now the “fastest growing ever” Ebola outbreak on record. (source)

(and to make matters worse, a rare Marburg case was also reported last week amongst the Ebola cases)

Earlier this week ILA announced it has obtained full government and regulatory approvals to deploy Galidesivir under a WHO emergency-use framework in the current Ebola outbreak.

(source)

Here is our full ILA update on the approval of ILAs drug for use in the current real world Ebola outbreak, Creating the first opportunity to collect HUMAN efficacy, safety and virological data in infected patients.

Also, this ILA webinar explaining the news is worth a watch:

(watch it here)

Hopefully ILA’s drug can get in there and help asap.

Here are some of our stocks with major news coming in a few weeks:

WCE - Further diamond drilling at Elizabeth Hill with more silver assays to come in, including from near the new ~50m long high-grade zone that included 3m at 524g/t silver (including 1.5m at 1,039g/t). (read more here)

ILA - On top of the emergency-use trial getting underway in Africa for Ebola, ILA has Marburg trials to get underway in coming weeks followed by dose-optimisation topline results. (read more here)

PUR - Began drilling hole DDH-3 into the lithium salar on July 3, this is backed by underground geophysics and is nearer to high grade intervals from TSX listed NOA Lithium. (read more here)

AVM - Gavilanes maiden diamond assays (hole 3 pending, hole 4 underway). This is where AVM hit 54.6m at 0.6% copper showing a deeper historic hit might not have been a fluke. (read more here)

CAY - Trial mining is set to get underway this quarter ahead of first shipment in Q4 (locomotives are in country, wagons on their way) plus a scoping study on an in-country bauxite refinery. (read more here)

EIQ - Initially guided to be expected during H1, the FDA clearance for EchoSolv HF is now overdue so could drop any day now, EIQ already has agreements in place to get the tech used on patients pending the approval. (read more here)

AW1 - Follow up assays from the 1st hole which hit 108.4m at 25.2g/t indium (plus gold, silver and zinc), visuals from hole 3 looked good and hole 4 is underway also along strike. (read more here)

TG1 - Blue & Red Devil maiden diamond drilling should be near with all drill approvals received and the drill pads prepared, discussions are underway now to get a drill rig. (read more here)

RCM - Drill results from the parallel lode struck late last year are due, and there is also drilling to get underway soon on its Canadian gallium and germanium project. (read more here)

PNN - Drilling has been underway for a couple of weeks at the high grade magnetic rare earth project and we have seen progress on their socials, so the first holes might be on their way to the lab. (read more here)

WAU - The first 5 of 7 holes from Abercromby are at the lab with a followup 6,000m drill program to recommence this quarter, there is also drilling at WAU's other project Bullabulling. (read more here)

VKA - Drilling at the Linka Tungsten Project with a 53 hole program planned, the drill rig is expected on site from mid July and earthworks set to get underway in the coming week. (read more here)

BPM - The much anticipated Bonnie & Clyde maiden ~50-hole RC drilling is expected this quarter, this shows geological similarities to the 8Moz Tropicana deposit in the area. (read more here)

Have a great weekend.

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