IVZ: Qatar ruling royal family invests $38M for 19.9% stake in IVZ. Plus US$500M in conditional future financing. And IVZ free carried on a new O&G Joint Venture….

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 5,606,309 IVZ Shares and 3,137,307 IVZ Options and the Company’s staff own 105,833 IVZ shares and 2,500,000 IVZ Options at the time of publishing this article. The Company has been engaged by IVZ to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in IVZ over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

His Highness Sheikh Mansour bin Jabor bin Jassim Al Thani of Qatar’s ruling royal family just signed a major, wide ranging deal with Invictus Energy (ASX:IVZ).

We see a lot of deals... today’s IVZ deal is pretty epic for a small cap ASX company (by our standards), you be the judge:

IVZ just announced a transformational deal where:

• Members of Qatar’s ruling royal family have invested A$37.8M into IVZ at a 79% premium (9.5c) to the last closing price (5.3c) to acquire a 19.9% stake in IVZ,
  
  
• PLUS they will provide up to US $500M in conditional future financing to bring IVZ’s Zimbabwe assets into “commercial production”.
  
  
• AND IVZ will get a 10% free carried interest in a new, Qatar funded Joint Venture mandated to find and develop more African Oil & Gas projects.
  
  

This Joint Venture wants to become “the largest private Qatari E&P [Exploration and Production] company with interests outside of Qatar”.

Yes...IVZ gets 10% of this new JV company... for no money down... it will be fully funded by members of Qatar’s royal family and IVZ’s management team will be running it.

Plus ~$38M now (with up to US$500M more) to get its current project into production...

How did a small cap, ASX listed oil & gas explorer’s Managing Director find himself in this situation?

*record scratch* *freeze frame*

“Yep, that's me. You're probably wondering how I got here.”

IVZ MD Scott Macmillan will explain exactly how in today’s webinar at 12:00 AEST / 10:00 AWST TODAY.

Here’s our take:

We first invested in IVZ back in September 2020...

IVZ was looking to make a giant oil and gas discovery in one of the few underexplored basins in the world.

(Estimated 5.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) over the prospective resource with a “string of pearls” basin margin play)

Since our first Investment in IVZ five years ago, IVZ has drilled two successful wells.

The first well was in late 2022 - a working hydrocarbon system was identified but no fluid sample was pulled to surface due to wireline logging challenges.

The second well was in late 2023 - a discovery was declared, with four hydrocarbon samples retrieved across two reservoirs and 13.9m of net pay.

Remember that photo of the hydrocarbon samples being held up to the camera by a hand with the bright green painted fingernail tips? (for those that don’t remember: source)

IVZ has been relatively quiet for the last 18 months (we were all waiting for their next exploration drill to happen.)

Until now...

After a quiet ~18 months, IVZ announced this morning a transformative deal with Al Mansour Holdings, the investment vehicle for members of Qatar's ruling royal family.

Sheikh Mansour is a member of Qatar's ruling royal family, the House of Thani, who have ruled Qatar since the mid-19th century with a net worth over US$170BN.

Qatar is one of the richest countries in the world on a per capita basis.

It is also the single biggest producer of liquefied natural gas in the world...

This deal between IVZ and Al Mansour is pretty unique:

• Al Mansour will invest US$25M (~A$39M) into IVZ at 9.5c (79% premium to IVZ’s last traded price)
• This will position Al Mansour as a 19.9% shareholder of IVZ
• Al Mansour will provide US$500 million of conditional future funding to bring the Cabora Bassa Project into commercial production.

(that is as good as a cap raise gets in the current oil and gas macro environment for an ASX listed small cap... AND allows IVZ to step off the perpetual cap raising hamster wheel that kept belting the share price in recent years)

In addition to this, IVZ and Al Mansour:

• Create a new Africa-focused upstream oil & gas company “Al Mansour Oil & Gas (AMOG)” (think of this as Qatar’s oil & gas subsidiary for Africa, focused on acquiring producing and near term development assets)
• IVZ will own 10% of this company, and run operations.
• Al Mansour will retain a 90% stake in return for funding EVERYTHING... (basically free carrying IVZ in this venture).

(Source)

This deal will see IVZ become the operating partner on Qatar’s African oil & gas subsidiary and retain a 10% free carried interest.

With the financial backing from Qatar and IVZ’s technical expertise and experience in Africa, they could maybe one day be one of the big logos included in a list like the following:

This JV is aspiring to be “to be the largest private Qatari exploration and production company with interests outside of Qatar”.

In relation to the A$37.8M investment stake into IVZ for a 19.9% holding, essentially, IVZ is now funded to drill out and flow test multiple targets on its giant Cabora Bassa project.

AND IVZ is finally off the “constant cap raisings with oppies” treadmill that kept smacking down the share price in the past.

AND

IVZ will own 10% of a Joint Venture with essentially unlimited capital backing from its JV partner to acquire and mature up oil and gas assets across Africa.

IVZ has basically been given a blank chequebook to find and develop oil and gas projects in Africa in exchange for 10% of whatever value is created...

This is on top of the direct capital made that will finally mean IVZ can move fast on its project in Zimbabwe - with $37.8M coming in at 9.5c now and up to $500M in conditional future funding to advance to commercial production.

This is probably the best oil & gas deal we have seen an ASX listed small cap company do in a long time - especially considering how tough the macro environment for juniors in the space is.

There is A LOT to take in and process and it will be interesting to see what IVZ can do with new cash rich backers over the next 2-5 years.

Scott will be talking through it to in a webinar at midday AEST today - here is the link to register:

Click here to register for the webinar

IVZ’s new JV partner is committing over US$100BN in investments across Africa?

IVZ’s new major shareholder (and JV partner) is Al Mansour Holdings Group.

Al Mansour Holdings Group is an investment vehicle backed by Sheikh Mansour bin Jabor bin Jassim Al Thani to invest in Africa.

Who is Sheikh Mansour bin Jabor bin Jassim Al Thani?

He is a senior member of Qatar's ruling royal family, the House of Thani who have ruled Qatar since the mid-19th century with a net worth of over US$170BN.

Most of that net worth has come as a result of exposure to Qatar’s giant natural gas reserves which makes them the biggest producer of liquefied natural gas in the world...

So they know the oil & gas business extremely well...

Which is why we are especially interested in IVZ’s 10% free carried interest in the JV to acquire and mature up assets across Africa.

IVZ could end up holding 10% of a major African oil and gas conglomerate.

And right now, we think the oil and gas macro is pretty close to rock bottom, so it's an excellent time to have a big cash war chest ready to deploy on acquiring new projects.

Today’s deal comes a week after Al Mansour Holdings (IVZ’s new major shareholder and JV partner) committed to more than US$100BN in investments across the African continent...

Here is the article we saw earlier this week:

(Source)

The article specifically said “A Qatari sheikh has been jetting across Africa this month, meeting presidents and pledging investments that dwarf some of the target countries’ GDPs”

(Source)

Quick reminder of why we like IVZ

We first Invested in IVZ back in 2020, and we named it our 2020 Energy Pick of the Year.

Over the years, we have written about a bunch of different reasons why we are Invested, here is a quick overview of some of the key points:

1. IVZ holds the key to the Cabora Bassa basin (Basin Master position) - IVZ holds ~80% of its project and so it gets to decide what happens with the project post-discovery.
   
   🚨Update:
   
   We think this would have been one of the key reasons IVZ was able to get a deal like today’s one done.
   
   
2. Oil and gas majors have paid multiples of IVZ’s current valuation for discoveries across East Africa - some transactions were done at 12x to 224x of IVZ’s implied working interest % on its project.
   
   🚨Update:
   
   Again, the value proposition here would have been a big factor in IVZ being able to get in a partner like Al Mansour Holdings.
   
   
3. IVZ has one of the biggest conventional oil and gas prospects globally - IVZ has a gross unrisked prospective resource of ~5.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent making it one of the largest conventional oil and gas targets in the world.
   
   
4. Basin Margin ‘String Of Pearls Play’ undrilled - IVZ has ~1.2Bn barrel oil equivalent prospective resources across basin margin targets. Basin Margin targets in the East African Rift System have an exploration success rate of 100% - 14 discoveries from 14 wells.
   
   
5. Directors who have had success in the East African Rift System - After drilling its first well in 2022, IVZ appointed John Bentley as its chairman and Robin Sutherland as its non-executive director. John built from the ground up and sold Energy Africa to Tullow Oil for US$500M and Robin worked for both Energy Africa and Tullow Oil.
   
   
6. The Zimbabwe Sovereign Wealth Fund is aligned with IVZ - Back in March 2022, IVZ signed a head of agreement with the Zimbabwe Sovereign Wealth Fund which would see the fund take an interest in the project - this aligns the government and the people of Zimbabwe’s interests with IVZ.
   
   🚨Update:
   
   In June 2024, the Zimbabwe Sovereign Wealth Fund followed through with that agreement and took a $10M strategic placement position in IVZ at 10 cents per share.
   
   
   
7. US$30M in work done by Mobil before IVZ acquired the project - The project had US$30M in legacy data leftover by Mobil from the 1990s. Interestingly Mobil had never drilled the project before IVZ took control of it.
   
   
8. Strategically located next to South Africa - IVZ’s project sits next to South Africa which is one of Africa’s biggest energy consumers and is expected to be structurally short of energy supplies over the next decade.
   
   
9. IVZ is looking to do what Africa Oil has done before - back in 2012, Africa Oil Corp drilled a string of successful wells and delivered a 1,000% share price run and sustained re-rate. We are hoping IVZ does the same thing.
   
   🚨Update:
   
   For the first time in years, IVZ will now have the capital backing to go and drill back to back wells...
   
   

What are the risks?

After today’s announcement, we think the key risk for IVZ in the short term is “Deal Risk”.

First of all, for the US$500M in conditional funding for IVZ’s Zimbabwe assets, today’s announcement said “The funding will be subject to entry into separate agreements and subject to timing relating to the ongoing development work at the Cabora Bassa Project”.

So that portion of the deal is conditional on a few things happening...

As for the Joint Venture (JV) with Al Mansour Holdings we note that IVZ still need to enter into a formal shareholder agreement.

This one seems more like a formality, but we will still need to see everything get signed and made official.

Other risks

Like any small cap investment, IVZ carries other risks which may affect the value of the company, some of which may not be foreseeable at this stage (this is the nature of risk).

IVZ remains a high-risk, early-stage oil & gas explorer. While today’s deal provides a significant funding pathway, there is no guarantee that exploration success will lead to commercial production. Subsurface risks remain, drilling results may not meet expectations, flow testing may not demonstrate commercial rates, or additional capital may be required to bring projects into production.

Commodity price risk is another factor. IVZ’s fortunes are closely tied to the oil and gas price cycle. A sustained downturn in global oil or gas markets could reduce project economics, slow development plans, or make financing less attractive even with a strong partner.

Country risk is also important. IVZ’s flagship project is in Zimbabwe, and any changes in fiscal terms, regulations, taxation, or government policy could impact timelines and project economics. Broader African expansion via the new JV introduces further jurisdictional risks across multiple countries, some of which may have heightened political, social, or security challenges.

There is also execution risk with the new JV. Even with a strong partner, scaling an African oil & gas business will require strong project selection, disciplined capital allocation, and smooth coordination between IVZ and Al Mansour Holdings. Any misalignment could limit the potential upside for IVZ’s 10% free-carried interest.

Environmental and social risks should also be noted. Oil and gas projects globally face increasing scrutiny on climate grounds, and operating in emerging markets adds layers of community engagement, permitting, and ESG compliance complexity. Delays in securing approvals or opposition from local communities could impact project progress.

Finally, as with all small caps, liquidity and market sentiment risks exist. IVZ’s share price may remain volatile and sensitive to news flow, exploration outcomes, and broader oil & gas sector sentiment.

Investors should weigh these risks carefully and seek professional advice that takes into account their personal circumstances before making any investment decisions.