Sunday Edition: 18th October

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd and its associated entities may hold direct or indirect interests in securities referred to in this publication and may receive fees or other forms of consideration from entities mentioned. These interests and arrangements may create a potential conflict of interest in the preparation of this material.

The information contained in this communication is provided for general information purposes only and may relate to speculative investments. It does not constitute financial product advice, and has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider obtaining independent financial advice before making any investment decision.

Any forward-looking statements are uncertain and not a guaranteed outcome.

Below you can find short overviews of all the content we published last week, plus links to each full note.

Further down, there’s also some links to other interesting stuff we came across on our travels around the internet.

Yesterday’s Saturday note: Maths solved, AI trade wobbles and small caps wait for sentiment to turn

Quick Takes: BUY, MNB, WAU, PNN, BKB, IVZ, LKY, OD6, ION, VKA

Deep Dives: IVR, CND, HAR

Other content: WAU, AL3, NS1, AUZ, PNN, RML, BKB, LSR, IVR, ILA

BUY licensed 3D seismic data covering offshore oil targets.

BUY is acquiring the exclusive right to negotiate a Production Sharing Contract over a deepwater block offshore Liberia, next door to ~$280BN TotalEnergies.

The vendor’s geo team had estimated that the block could hold ~4.5BN barrels of oil in place, unrisked.

That’s a screening estimate worked up from the neighbours' published data, not from BUY's own seismic data YET.

Now, BUY has agreed terms to access ~656km2 of 3D seismic and ~753 line-km of 2D data over the block.

With that data, BUY can put together a prospective resource estimate based on seismic, instead of the vendors' internal numbers.

(source)

MNB started earthworks at its phosphate fertiliser project in Angola.

MNB is building Angola's first and only integrated phosphate mine and fertiliser plant.

After a few years of financing delays, it feels like it's finally happening for MNB.

Below are some pictures from this week’s announcement - and nice to see MNB is committed to "commissioning in 2027".

(source)

WAU defined over 4km of new gold targets at Bullabulling.

Now WAU has NINE new targets across ~4km to the north of $2.1BN Minerals 260's 6.2M ounce gold deposit.

WAU’s thesis is that whatever structures formed Minerals 260’s giant deposit, could also throw off some mineralisation into WAU’s ground.

Well now we have some targets WAU can drill to see if that theory checks out.

(source)(source)

PNN stepped out southeast with 91m of high grade rare earths.

The new hole sits southeast of PNN’s prior drilling - so technically, we could call it an extension to what PNN’s announced to date.

Another giant hit from PNN with grades as high as 17.5% TREO - massive considering some rare earth projects that are considered development stage have 1-2% grades.

(source)

PNN then went into a trading halt on Thursday, and is due to return to trading tomorrow morning - the trading halt is regarding ‘material assay results’...

Lets see what PNN’s drill bit has turned up now.

BKB upgraded silver grades from its US project - JORC resource due this quarter.

BKB’s project already has a 17.6Moz at 289g/t silver foreign (non-JORC) resource estimate.

All based on old exploration data.

This week’s results were from re-assayed old drill core. This is where BKB is again upgrading all the old silver results - one re-assay came in 51% above the original assay.

Hopefully that will translate into higher grades OR a bigger resource, when BKB converts that foreign resource into JORC compliant resource.

Another positive - BKB keeps hitting gold too.

Gold credits could mean BKB reports a “silver equivalent” number a lot bigger than the current resource estimate.

All this work is feeding into the big catalyst we are looking forward to - BKB's maiden JORC resource estimate, due this quarter.

(source)

IVZ completed the well pad for 1.2 Tcf gas + 73M barrel condensate drill test - drilling this quarter.

IVZ has already signed a well services contract with $116BN capped SLB, the world's largest oilfield services contractor.

Now the wellpad is constructed.

And the rig is on the move to the well site (moving from one of IVZ’s other targets inside the same block).

IVZ expects to be drilling Musuma-1 in November (inside the next ~30-45 days).

This will be IVZ's first well since its Mukuyu discovery in 2022/2023 (labelled the second largest discovery in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2023).

(source)

LKY identified copper targets across a ~50km trend.

We originally Invested in LKY for its US critical minerals assets, however the company recently halted exploration on those assets.

With copper trading where it is, LKY has shifted focus to its two NSW copper projects.

LKY already has resource estimates across these two projects for a combined ~11.2Mt at ~0.7-1% copper, with ~85kt of contained copper.

A decent amount of copper for a $20M capped stock.

Neither project has seen a major modern drilling program, and a review of the ground has identified more than 50km of prospective trends across the district.

With near $15M in cash in the bank at 30 June 2026 - we are looking forward to seeing what LKY finds when it drills these projects - which it says will happen “in the coming weeks”.

(source)

OD6 sampled high grade critical mineral - fluorspar - at its US project in Nevada.

The new channel samples ran ~24m wide at 51.1% fluorspar, from a spot ~12km south of anything OD6 had sampled before.

That’s four main target areas across a trend >12km now.

Next, it's all about getting those drill permits in so OD6 can finally drill test its project to see whether or not the fluorspar extends deep beyond all the outcrop being sampled.

OD6 says drilling should be in “early 2027”.

(source)

ION's Oklahoma funding application was accepted for its US rare earths facility.

ION is our 2026 Small Cap Pick of the Year, currently progressing the recycling of magnets for rare earths from e-waste in the USA.

In June ION named Oklahoma as the preferred home for its first commercial recycling module, backed by a letter of support from the Oklahoma Department of Commerce for up to US$15M across three modules.

ION has now formally entered the state's qualification process for performance based incentives totalling up to US$5.2M for its first module (payroll rebates, tax incentives and workforce training - so not upfront cash).

ION is also pursuing the Governor's Quick Action Closing Fund plus other Federal, State and Tribal Nation funding on top of this.

Non-dilutive funding for the US facility is one of the key things we want to see from ION as it moves towards a Final Investment Decision on its Oklahoma plant.

(source)

VKA started drilling at its US tungsten project - assays due this month.

VKA's Nevada project produced tungsten in the 1940s and 50s - production stopped when the US government suspended its tungsten buying program, not because the tungsten ran out.

VKA wants to restart the project with a simple, gravity led processing plant, and this drill program is about proving up the tungsten resource estimate to feed it.

Assays have already come in for the first five holes, all showing decent widths and good grades - the best being 14m at 0.56% tungsten.

The drill rig is now back on site after a short maintenance pause, with VKA stating the remaining drilling to take 2 to 3 weeks, plus the rest of the earlier drilling assays expected this month.

We are hoping VKA can attract some form of US government funding AND/OR strategic interest from inside the US as it progresses its rapid mine restart plan.

(source)

Investigator Silver (ASX:IVR)

After our favourite precious metal spiked to $120/oz in in January this year, silver has continued to trade well above its two previous all time highs for all of 2026:

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Earlier this year we wrote about how every major silver bull market came with a 45% to 50% pull back in the middle:

(source: our article from June 2026)

We are holding our silver positions, waiting for the next major leg up in the silver price.

And when silver goes up it should take silver stocks with it - especially the ones closest to building a mine.

We Invested in Investigator Silver (ASX:IVR) because we think its project could be one of the mines that end up being built in this cycle.

IVR has an advanced stage 57M ounce silver deposit in South Australia. (source)

It’s one of Australia's highest grade pure play silver projects.

The project has a Definitive Feasibility Study (delivered in February) that demonstrated:

• A$1.154BN pre-tax NPV and a 93% IRR (at US$80/oz silver - silver is currently trading at US$61/oz),
  
• An 11 month payback on A$260M of development capital, and
  
• A$39.70/oz all-in sustaining cost (US$27.39/oz) - well below that current spot price above.

(at the pre-production stage, advanced projects with a real shot at building a mine run first in a bull market for that commodity)

Since our Investment in IVR, fundamentally the silver trade has gotten stronger too.

We have seen:

• Silver move onto the same list as antimony, tungsten and rare earths by China (for export controls).
  
• The US government add silver to its critical minerals list.
  
• A confirmed SIXTH straight year of silver deficits (where mined supply is less than demand)
  
• And then a few months ago Samsung said it would start mass production of a solid-state EV battery that uses a silver-carbon layer in 2027.

So with all of that in the market... WHY isn't the silver price US$200 or US$300/oz?

Anyone who has been around markets for longer than a few years will know that whenever there is a big move into all time highs, there is a pretty quick (and aggressive) pullback that comes with it.

BEFORE finding a base... to launch higher again.

One US fund manager thinks that the next rally comes after the world has shed enough of its above-ground silver inventories (which he thinks could be inside the next 3 years). (source)

Remember... silver is in its SIXTH consecutive year of global silver deficits. (source)

So, once inventories are low enough (or completely gone), the market could react by pushing silver prices up to a level where it incentivises new supply to come online.

We are backing IVR because the MD (Lachlan Wallace) knows how to get a mine built - especially in South Australia.

Read more: IVR: That’s a huge pit

Condor Energy (ASX:CND)

For the first time in over 50 years, ~30% of global oil and gas supply is at risk - from disruptions in the Middle East market.

So why haven’t oil prices run to over US$200 a barrel?

We think it's because the world has gone on a binge drawdown of oil reserves and inventories - that’s keeping markets relatively calm... for now.

JPMorgan put out a note back in May which estimated that IF there was no resolution inventories could be at “stress levels” by June.

AND by September at “operational floor levels” - “the minimum level to keep refineries operating”.

Here we are in mid-October and there is still no resolution.

(source)(source)

JP Morgan is now saying "We simply don't know how to model the endgame." (source)

We think that IF the Middle East disruption isn’t resolved (and it looks like it won't be) by January, we could see a big rally in oil prices...

...like it did the last time the Middle East production went offline.

Well above oil’s inflation adjusted highs - to go past those, oil would need to go through US$220 per barrel:

(source)

Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Commodity prices are volatile and can fall as well as rise.

We think that IF oil prices run, small cap oil and gas stocks like our Investment Condor Energy (ASX:CND) could run with it.

(no guarantees of course)

We have been Invested in CND for many years now, and are substantial holders.

We’ve been waiting for CND get closer and closer to the point where it is in a position to finally drill test its asset - today we got one big step closer to that.

CND holds the exclusive right to apply for a conventional exploration contract on 100% of a block offshore northern Peru with:

• 3.3 billion barrels of oil in prospective resources across (unrisked) six prospects. (source)
  
• AND an existing 1 Tcf gas DISCOVERY - Piedra Redonda, which has already flowed gas to surface. (source)

CND is capped at just $15.5M.

CND could re-rate irrespective of oil prices in the coming weeks or months -

We are watching for when CND’s block gets converted into a full blown exploration licence contract by the Peruvian regulators.

That licence is what would give CND the right to explore and develop the block - to farm it out, to drill the oil prospects, to commercialise the gas.

THAT is when we think the market re-rates CND on the merits of its existing gas discovery and its oil prospects.

This week was a big step forward for CND - the company got formally qualified by the Peruvian regulators.

(meaning they are satisfied with CND’s capacity to become an exploration licence holder)

Read more: $15.5M CND formally qualified to negotiate full licence over Tumbes Basin asset - 3.3BN barrel oil prospects AND an existing 1Tcf gas discovery.

Haranga Resources (ASX:HAR)

Gold was up 2% overnight Thursday...

So on Friday when our Investment Haranga Resources (ASX:HAR) put out a high grade drill result like this:

32m at 10.4 g/tonne from 143m...

(source)

Our expectation was that it should trade fairly strongly off the back of the news.

And now it's the weekend, it's fair to say the market reacted pretty well.

In a bull market, that sort of high grade drill result would be an excellent result for any gold small cap with a market cap of $24M like HAR.

But it's been a fairly horrible few weeks for gold stocks...

If we take a step back and look at the bigger picture:

Gold is up ~131% from where it was 5 years ago.

At the current gold prices, big producers are all putting out record cashflow numbers.

But for various reasons, sentiment isn’t great amongst the ASX small cap investors.

And so it’s brought down gold small cap share prices - we think unfairly.

The past performance of the gold price is not an indicator of the future performance of the gold price.

We think gold stocks with a pathway to production AND a big defined resource that have been sold down over the last few months COULD end up doing the best IF gold prices rip from here.

Which is pretty much what HAR is, and why we like it right now.

No guarantees of course, the ASX small cap gods can be cruel and unforgiving - as we have seen in recent weeks.

HAR owns 100% of a 402k ounce at 5.1g/t JORC resource estimate gold project in California’s Mother Lode region.

This is where the original Californian gold rush of the 1840s happened.

HAR’s project also comes with a relatively modern processing plant - built by the previous owners of the project back in 2013.

HAR says the project and its associated infrastructure cost ~$90M to build over the years.

Who knows what that is worth in today’s money.

HAR is currently capped at $24M, had $6.3M cash at 30 June 2026 meaning it trades with an Enterprise Value of roughly $18M.

(The September quarterly report will land in the next 2 weeks, so we will see an updated cash balance then.)

We think the market is missing two things with HAR:

1. Its infrastructure is in relatively good shape (only built in 2013 - check out the photos below) and puts HAR ahead of any other mid caps trying to develop a JORC resource... HAR just needs to put together a resource it's confident in, refurb/update the plant and start producing gold.
   
2. HAR’s resource can get a lot bigger than the 402k ounces it sits at today.

Read more: HAR: Gold up 2%, nice day for a high grade hit

FT - Investors predict new record price for gold within two years

AFR - WAU: Creasy's AIM Mining taps two brokers for $1b-plus Pilbara gold float

The Australian - Wiluna covers $180m IPO order book ahead of return to the ASX

This is for the relisting of Wiluna, which WAU has a non-binding MOU with Wiluna Mining to process WAU’s ore at Wiluna’s facility.

WAU has already run a Scoping Study on this plan with positive numbers, so Wiluna being relisted could be a catalyst to see progress on a potential arrangement.

Mining.com - JPMorgan names critical minerals chief for $1.5T push

AFR - Australia is in an energy cold war, like it or not

Bloomberg - Aramco HQ Hit as Houthi Missiles Strike Saudi Arabia

Bloomberg - Aerospace CEOs Meet Duffy to Push for Faster Aircraft Certification Process

Bloomberg - Trump Says Ohio to Get Submarine Repair Center in Midterm Appeal

Bloomberg - America's Submarine Production Is Stuck in the Past

These are positive macro tailwinds for our 3D metal printing Investment AL3, as it operates in and sells to the naval and defence markets.

New Atlas - Dexterous robot hand learns the delicate art of silk embroidery

This one includes a video with some intricate movements being completed successfully, seems like every week there are new videos on things you wouldn’t have thought to be possible.

AFR - NS1: Ukraine fights blind after Musk and Trump throttle Starlink

This is a real life scenario where NS1’s tech may have been able to help minimise the impact of data transmission issues such as this.

The West Australian - Albanese government takeover of Northern Minerals is possible, says resources minister Madeleine King

The Australian - Fortescue pours over $600m into Gabon iron ore project as overseas push accelerates

AUZ - Scandium at an Inflection Point - Investor Presentation October 2026

WAU - Australian Gold Conference Sydney 13-15 October 2026 - An Emerging Western Australian Gold Producer Abercromby and Bullabulling Gold Projects

PNN - Power Minerals (ASX:PNN) CEO Alistair Stephens on Santa Anna Niobium Mineralogy (CEO interview)

RML - China Cut America Off... Now This Mine Could Become Critical - Cashu Conversations Ep. 1 (US operations CEO interview)

Biotech - Martin Shkreli: Big Pharma's Blind Spot, Betting Against Quantum & What Prison Taught Him (All-In Podcast)

Biotech - The Future of Biotech | David Williams | Blenheim Partners (Blenheim Partners)

BKB - Craig Dickson did a writeup on BKB’s current valuation compared to its projects during the week in the Herald Sun:

PNN - Shared photos of its technical team onsite at Morro do Ferro ahead of the maiden resource estimate:

LSR - Featured in Forbes Australia spotlighting exploration strategy across copper gold and rare earths projects.

Some interesting backstory on LSR Chairman Ross Taylor’s prior deal making before getting involved in the ASX, including refinancing Michael Jackson’s half of the Beatles catalogue for US$300M:

(Read the article here)

IVR - Hosted investors and analysts at the Paris Silver Project site near Kimba for execution planning insights:

ILA - Has already begun GMP manufacture of Galidesivir's active ingredient for planned use against a possible Bundibugyo Ebola breakout in Uganda (currently spreading in neighbouring DR Congo), ILA shared a NYT article about the rapid spread

ILA - Chairman Jason Carroll shared this infographic on the back of Ebola having been transmitted within a family in Kenya:

A word of caution...

While we aim to highlight developments in the small cap space, investing in early-stage and small cap companies - like those we cover - is inherently risky.

These companies often face funding challenges, regulatory hurdles, and market volatility. Announcements may reflect aspirations more than guaranteed outcomes.

Things can, and often do, change.

Just because a company has signed a deal, released drill results, or appointed a new director doesn’t mean success is assured.

Always assume delays, cost overruns, or results that don’t pan out.

We’re here to share insights, not offer personal financial advice - so please do your own research and speak with a licensed adviser before acting on anything mentioned.

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Bye for now.