Sunday Edition: 16th November

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd and its associated entities may hold direct or indirect interests in securities referred to in this publication and may receive fees or other forms of consideration from entities mentioned. These interests and arrangements may create a potential conflict of interest in the preparation of this material.

The information contained in this communication is provided for general information purposes only and may relate to speculative investments. It does not constitute financial product advice, and has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider obtaining independent financial advice before making any investment decision.

Yesterday we wrote about what the future of war will look like...

And the critical minerals needed by countries to quickly build the biggest armies of autonomous robot war dogs and war drones, with the best AI:

(hopefully just as a deterrent, not for offence)

Just in case the idea of a global race to build the biggest marauding hordes of armed, AI powered autonomous dog shaped slaughterbots isn’t enough to keep you up at night...

(I used to have nightmares as a kid about the T1000 chasing me after seeing Terminator 2)

...the responding tactics of countries with lesser drone and robot dog armies could be even worse.

“Biological warfare” is the deliberate use of biological agents like bacteria, viruses, fungi, or toxins to harm or incapacitate humans during conflict.

During the Cold War, anthrax played a major role in the secret biological weapons programs for both the US and the Soviet Union.

The threat of biological warfare has unfortunately never really gone away.

And with all this advanced weaponry being developed, offensive tactics are rapidly changing - and defensive tactics and strategies are quickly evolving to keep up.

To combat the threat of biowarfare, countries stockpile drugs to defend against weaponisable viruses.

Our Investment Island Pharmaceuticals (ASX:ILA)’s drug Galidesivir has the potential to defend against bioweapons.

ILA’s drug has already been shown to be effective against ~20 viruses in lab tests - many of which sit in the “weaponisable” category.

For weaponisable viruses like Marburg, Ebola and Zika, ILA’s drug has shown (in animal studies) survival rates of up to 100% versus 0% survival in placebo...

ILA’s drug has already had over US$70M in US government funding support for clinical development against viruses that could be deployed as bioweapons in war scenarios.

ILA says they are coming out of trading halt tomorrow (Monday) morning “pending an announcement by Island Pharmaceuticals regarding US Food & Drug Administration feedback on Galidesivir program” (source)

IF ILA’s Galedesivir drug is approved as eligible for approvals under the “animal rule” pathway - it could skip what is typically a 15+ year process of human phase 2 & 3 clinical trials and get to FDA approvals in 12-18 months.

So there could be no long and expensive phase 2 and phase 3 trials...

Another big unlock of accelerated approvals for ILA’s new drug is that it could open the door for ILA being given a “Priority Review Voucher” (PRV).

A priority review voucher is a tradable certificate that lets a drug company shorten the U.S. FDA’s review time for a future drug application as a reward for having developed a treatment for certain diseases.

At a very high level, these “tradable” PRV’s are inherently valuable on their own because companies can sell them to other companies... on average, they are selling for US$100M (A$156M).

ILA submitted the request briefing for the US FDA’s feedback on 29th Sept on the fast track “animal rule” and “PRV eligibility” for ILA’s Galidesivir program (source).

And tomorrow it looks like we are going to find out the FDA’s response...

This is kind of the equivalent to results from a major oil and gas well - it’s a pretty big news event so tomorrow should be an eventful day for ILA, whether the news is good OR bad.

Post trading halt, ILA has already announced a zoom webinar where management will talk through the FDA’s response in detail (announcement here)

(Register for the ILA webinar here - Monday 17th November 10:30am AEDT)

The virus which ILA’s Galidesivir drug has been tested the most in a clinical setting is the Marburg virus - which is what ILA will be targeting as an effective treatment first.

(Not so) Fun Fact: During the Cold War, the Soviet Union's bioweapons program actively weaponised Marburg virus, producing it in large quantities and favoring it over Ebola due to its stability in weaponised form (source, source ).

Marburg disease is classified as a Category A bioterrorism threat (the highest level threat) by the US government. (source)

(for Category A bioterrorism threats, governments around the world will generally maintain a stockpile of vaccines or treatments to quickly deploy. So we would assume if ILA can demonstrate its drug is effective against Marburg, the US government will take an interest)

Marburg is a highly dangerous virus that causes severe hemorrhagic fever in humans, with a fatality rate up to 88%.

There is no current vaccine or cure for Marburg.

ILA’s animal trials for Marburg have shown survival rates of up to 94% versus 0% survival in placebo.

We will find out what the US FDA has to say tomorrow morning...

(read our most recent ILA note here we go into more detail on all this)

(and you can read more about AI powered, autonomous robot war dogs, silver and gold in our Saturday edition here)

Below is a summary and links for everything else we wrote about last week, along with some other interesting content we found in relation to our Portfolio.

Quick Takes: L1M, HAR, RML, TG1, ION, PNN, IVR, LKY, MAN, ROC, PFE, WCE, ONE

Deep Dives: BPM, HAR, AW1, LKY

L1M put out a second batch of drill results from its QLD gold-copper-silver project.

The gold hits from beneath the old pits are always good to see. The interesting take for us was the base metals hits fitting L1M’s porphyry theory (which L1M plans to drill this quarter).

HAR plans to drill its US gold project in the second half of this month.

This will be HAR’s first drill program on the US asset - just as gold’s started moving higher again. Hopefully, we see a repeat of the 108.7g/t hits HAR sampled in old core from the project a few months ago.

Oh, and HAR is also drilling its gold project in Senegal - so there could be newsflow on two projects before the end of the year.

RML outlined its follow up drilling plans for its new gold discovery in the USA.

The first few holes have proven RML’s “intrusion related gold system” theory - with those mega hits up to 253m at 1.5 g/t gold and ending in mineralisation.

Now its all about seeing how big that system can get with two rigs, deeper drilling and a 50-hole program planned...

TG1 samples copper grades up to 52% from WA project.

Now we have surface samples marrying up with geophysics - the 52% rock chips sit right above a big geophysical anomaly that TG1 plans to drill later this year (or in early 2026).

TG1’s plan is to drill two copper projects over the next three quarters.

ION started development of solar panel recycling tech to recover silver and silicon.

There aren’t many companies doing solar panel recycling tech - a market that ION says could be worth ~$1BN in silver, silicon, aluminium, and glass by 2030 ~44% of which will be silver...

The silicon is also pretty interesting... depending on what ION can recover the silicon could sell for up to ~US$308,000 per tonne.

PNN announced a batch of assay results from its rare earths and niobium project in Brazil.

The results were from PNN’s shallow auger drill program which was designed to be the precursor for a 10,000m RC program on the project.

PNN expects to start the deeper drilling this month, with the program expected to run through to Q1-2026...

IVR identified two new exploration targets ~11km away from its 57M ounce silver deposit.

IVR is one of our more advanced silver Investments with a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) due on its project in H1-2026.

Usually, exploration doesn’t really factor into our Investment Thesis with more advanced stocks, but given the targets are only 11km away, any big discovery could change the way a development plan for the existing deposit looks...

LKY mapped 4 levelled underground workings on it’s US antimony project.

LKY’s project had produced antimony during WW1 and WW2 and was one of the highest grade mines in the US... so the four levelled underground workings make a lot of sense.

Clearly, the old timers had enough to work with to justify building four levels underground.

MAN signed a non-binding term sheet to recover uranium and other critical minerals from its project in Utah.

MAN’s project actually sits next to US uranium (and heavy rare earth) producer Energy Fuels - which is capped at US$5.7BN.

The interesting takeaway for us was the inclusion of “other critical minerals” in the announcement...

We know that Energy Fuels is producing heavy rare earths from the White Mesa Mill (which is 5km away from MAN’s project area) - now we wait to see what “other critical minerals” includes...

ROC renewed its contract with a major Australian retailer.

It’s always good to see customers renewing contracts for tech companies...

What caught our attention was the growth in ROC’s “advanced pipe customers” from 13 to 16 and the sites operated by those potential customers increasing to 20,000+...

All we need now is for ROC to convert one (or more) of those into sales.

PFE defined antimony-silver targets at its project in Arkansas, USA.

PFE now has 7 high priority targets to follow up - prospective for antimony, silver, lead, zinc and copper, having produced antimony from shallow workings ~100 years ago.

PFE is the first company to be exploring this ground with modern exploration techniques.

WCE started an aircore drill program on the regional targets at its Elizabeth Hill silver mine.

This will be the first round of drilling WCE’s done on those regional targets - where we are hoping WCE finds another Elizabeth Hill.

For some context - Elizabeth Hill historically produced ~1.2M ounces of silver at average grades of ~2,194g/t (over a 12 month period 25 years ago) - at the time it was one of the highest grade mines in Australia.

ONE appointed US healthcare veteran Michael Dowling to its board of directors.

The healthcare “titan” (not our words, but the words of Time Magazine source) is the current CEO Emeritus (honorary CEO/advisor) of New York’s Northwell Health.

Northwell Health is the largest health system in New York and treats over 4.7 million patients annually with a US$22.6BN operating budget.

Hopefully Michael’s appointment is the trigger for conversions in ONE’s 180+ pipeline of opportunities in the US as part of its partnership with $14.4BN Baxter International.

BPM Minerals (ASX:BPM)

This one is pretty simple...

BPM is just about to “roll the exploration dice” with its first drill program into its WA gold project...

Nearby and on the same geological trend as the 8Moz gold Tropicana gold deposit:

BPM says the first drill hole is about to start “in the coming weeks” on a 3,000m program over 25 holes.

The market is still likely to reward genuine gold exploration success with gold trading at US$4,200 per ounce.

And on the ASX, “gold in WA” automatically generally attracts a premium because of how well the market understands the type of deposits and the jurisdiction.

Which is why we are looking forward to seeing $10M capped BPM drill its WA gold asset in the coming weeks.

Especially with that Tropicana project being the subject of M&A rumours:

(Source)

Read more: BPM: About to drill WA gold project on same geological trend as nearby 8Moz Tropicana

Haranga Resources (ASX:HAR)

HAR is now about to start drilling its USA gold project (in the coming weeks)...

This project sits on the famous “California gold rush Motherlode”, has a 100% owned fully permitted and built gold processing plant and decline.

AND, HAR is currently drilling its gold project in Senegal

Senegal was a lower priority “side project” for HAR (that we didn’t really care about at all until recently).

Drilling from that asset surprised everyone eight weeks ago by delivering some long, high grade gold intercepts from shallow drilling - enough for HAR to quickly commit to further drilling.

(and for HAR’s share price to run to 20c)

Now it firmly has our attention...

AND HAR will have two drill programs running in parallel over the coming weeks.

If gold runs back towards the all time highs it reached 21 days ago, market sentiment for gold stocks should return and start rewarding strong exploration results again.

A great backdrop for HAR to deliver gold drilling results from its two programs.

Another leg up in the gold price could be the trigger for valuations to go to the next level across the gold space.

(keeping in mind of course, the gold price can go down too... like we saw three weeks ago)

Read more: HAR gold drilling: Started in Senegal, about to start in the USA. Gold up 3% in the last 18 hours...

American West Metals (ASX:AW1)

AW1 owns the largest indium resource in the USA...

Indium is a critical mineral with military applications like infrared detectors, night vision systems, missile guidance systems, radar systems and F-35 fighter jets.

And the USA has zero domestic indium production...

AW1 says they have received "unsolicited approaches” from:

• The US Department of War (DoW),
• The US Department of Energy (DoE)
• The local government in Utah...
• And yesterday, from US investors for a NASDAQ or NYSE listing (source)

(“unsolicited” meaning that they were contacted by these groups without seeking the contact - like when you get that dinner time phone call asking if you are interested in “government rebates for installing solar panels on your roof” or “how to save on your electricity bill”)

So while many ASX listed US critical minerals companies with earlier stage projects are rushing around trying to “make things happen” with the US government and US investors...

AW1’s indium resource appears to be big enough that the US government and US investor interest is coming to them... without them trying.

Imagine if/when AW1 starts “putting their foot on the accelerator” with their USA indium asset, and actually begins actively “soliciting” for US interest in their project...

... and starts executing on the steps in “Our “playbook" for small ASX stocks advancing US critical minerals projects

Read more: AW1: “Unsolicited approaches” from US government and US investors

Locksley Resources (ASX:LKY)

LKY received a US$191M letter of interest from the US Export-Import Bank a few weeks ago.

And then this week LKY outlined the next steps for bringing into production its Desert Antimony Mine in California, USA.

LKY’s Desert Antimony Mine was in production during WW1 and WW2 producing between 100 and 1,000 tonnes of antimony. (source).

It was one of the highest grade antimony mines in the US - which we now know was big and high grade enough for the old timers to mine over 4 underground levels...

LKY’s announcement had the following:

• Development planning for extraction, permitting and financing underway.
• Letters of interest sent to engineering contractors for a possible mine re-start scenario.
• Safe underground access confirmed with an engineering consultant sign off.
• Exploration target: 772K–1.38M tonnes at 2.5–4.9% Sb for ~19,400 tonnes to 67,700 tonnes of antimony metal.
• High-grade antimony samples extracted and tested successfully - producing military spec ingots from bulk samples, AND
• US$191M in potential financing lined up from the US Export Import Bank.

The first thing that caught our eye in this morning’s announcement was the exploration target of a potential 19,400 tonnes to 67,700 tonnes of antimony metal.

The upper end of LKY’s exploration target is getting close to the size of the US “national champion” - $4.3BN Perpetua Resources’ resource estimate of 91,000 tonnes of antimony... .

LKY based its exploration target on LiDar surveys and extrapolated sample grades from veins that had been previously mined.

“LiDar” gave us a 3D view of the historical tunnels from the 1920s when the old miners were “following the antimony veins underground”:

(Source)

LKY was able to extrapolate where the previously mined veins could extend:

(Source)

Now that we have an “exploration target” of 19,400 tonnes to 67,700 tonnes of antimony... next step is to start drilling into it to see how much is there.

Read more: LKY: Racing to build the USA’s first antimony mine

TG1 - Advancing Six Tier-One Copper-Gold Opportunities

LSR - Company Presentation

MTH - Investor Presentation Precious Metals Summit Zurich

WCE - Investor Presentation

Bloomberg - Barrick pivots back to North America as new leadership shifts focus to high-return gold mines in Nevada (our Investment JBY has a gold project next door to a Barrick project in Nevada...) and the Dominican Republic, abandoning Bristow’s global expansion strategy.

FT - China’s secretive gold buying could exceed official figures tenfold, with analysts estimating up to 250 tonnes this year, as Beijing quietly diversifies reserves away from the US dollar.

WSJ - Americans are cashing in old silver coins as prices soar, flooding dealers with “junk silver” while melt values hit decades-highs as hidden treasures could be worth far more than scrap.

AFR - Rio has shelved its long-delayed Serbian Jadar lithium mine as new CEO Simon Trott slashes spending and mothballs non-core assets, while prioritising cheaper, faster-return lithium projects after the $10.7BN Arcadium Lithium deal.

Bloomberg - Lithium prices are rallying as battery storage demand surges overshadowing Chinese supply concerns, with energy storage systems set to drive a third of global battery growth by 2030.

FT - US backs Brazil’s Serra Verde with a $465M loan to secure the first major heavy rare earth supply outside China, boosting Western magnet supply chains as Beijing tightens controls, perhaps a positive sign for our Brazilian Rare Earth Investment SGQ.

Bloomberg - Canada moves to secure critical minerals from China, planning equity stakes, fast-tracked projects, and stockpiles to boost domestic supply of lithium, graphite, rare earths, and niche metals.

AFR - Sydney’s Tribeca and Terra back a US$210m+ SPAC targeting near-production critical minerals assets, capitalising on Trump-Albanese policy tailwinds and soaring North American demand for EV, defence and energy security metals.

Fox Business - An inside look at how the US is securing rare earth supply chains with a public-private partnership with MP Materials, now Pentagon-backed. The investment expands mining, separation, and magnet production to counter China’s dominance.

Bloomberg - Chinese investors are pivoting from high-flying AI chipmakers, targeting power, metals, energy storage, and optical fibre firms that support data centers.

Bloomberg - China is doubling down on self-reliance, boosting domestic tech, AI, and quantum sectors to counter US pressure, aiming to secure global supply chains and military-civil superiority.

Island Pharmaceuticals (ASX: ILA) - Clinical Proof, Policy Pull (RAAS)

Haranga Resources (ASX: HAR) - A High-Grade Gold Portfolio with Clear Pathways to Re-Rating (East Coast Research)

Iondrive (ASX: ION) - Iondrive Limited Positioned for critical minerals and rare earth elements supply security in growing markets (Corporate Connect)

Iondrive (ASX: ION) - From Batteries to Beyond: How DES Technology Scales Recycling

An Oil & Gas Revolution Is Underway That Will Change Everything (Doomberg)

What Gold's Rise (Really) Means for the World (Bloomberg)

Otavio (Tavi) Costa shares his take on the Silver Market.

Cyber Rattling & Socialism: Anne Neuberger on Future Wars, Mayor Mamdani, and a Big Deal at the BBC

And a couple of special mentions for this week (these aren’t videos, but we wanted to get these in here)...

Oneview Healthcare (ASX: ONE) - CEO James Fitter is ecstatic with the appointment of Michael Dowling to the company

And in case you missed it from our Saturday article, Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) CEO Kerrie Matthews was in Washington DC recently, here is a picture with the antimony ingot produced 4 weeks ago, right in front of the United States Capitol building, home of the US Congress

A word of caution...

While we aim to highlight developments in the small cap space, investing in early-stage and small cap companies - like those we cover - is inherently risky.

These companies often face funding challenges, regulatory hurdles, and market volatility. Announcements may reflect aspirations more than guaranteed outcomes.

Things can, and often do, change.

Just because a company has signed a deal, released drill results, or appointed a new director doesn’t mean success is assured.

Always assume delays, cost overruns, or results that don’t pan out.

We’re here to share insights, not offer personal financial advice - so please do your own research and speak with a licensed adviser before acting on anything mentioned.

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Bye for now.