Cash Positions, Catalysts & Big Milestones Ahead

Published 04-MAY-2025 13:44 P.M.

13 minute read

A nice distraction from geopolitics and tariffs - a biotech 10 bagger. What does it take for a stock to go up 10x? List of companies that could have a big announcement coming... or rerate off upcoming drill results.

Read our Saturday Weekender note here.

Our ‘Quick Takes’ on news from our Investments

Another new oil discovery was confirmed offshore in Namibia this week, driving a spike in offshore Namibia player Pancontinental Energy’s share price. Pancontinental ended the week with a market cap of $65M. The new discovery was also good news for our Investment, $8.4M capped GGE, which has a permit application pending for its own block offshore in Namibia.
Mental health technology company TRI received approval for a 60 person clinical trial with the US Department of Veteran Affairs to measure signs of depression while patients are sleeping. We are interested in seeing if TRI’s algorithm can work with single-led ECG devices (wearables like a smart watch or smart ring). Results are expected ~12 weeks after the trial starts.
SS1 started drilling its silver project in Nevada, USA. SS1 listed three main objectives for the drill program but we are most interested in the metwork results that will come from this drilling (metwork is important for technically de-risking the project) and the extensional drilling to the north-west (chasing shallow high grade mineralisation).

More news out of the Smackover, Arkansas in the US... Exxon Mobil scored a win over Occidental Petroleum for lithium production rights. The news shows us just how valuable land in this part of the US is for lithium. Our Investment PFE is the only ASX-listed small cap company in the region. (Interesting fact, PFE actually pegged the ground in the region before Exxon came along)

Here’s “Mr Lithium” Joe Lowry with his thoughts on the news:

(Source)

Quarterly reporting season is now over.

Every 3 months, small ASX companies are required to release a quarterly report, where we get to see the financials and cash balance for the month... and some management comments.

Here are cash balances and a few quick thoughts...

AL3 had $31M cash at the end of the quarter.

Great to see an operating cash flow breakeven quarter from AL3. We think that 2025 will be a big year for AL3 and it has the financial firepower to make it happen with ~A$31M in the bank.
ROC had $433k cash at the end of the quarter, plus $4M raised after quarter end.

ROC raised $4M after the end of the quarter, so the cash balance now should be a lot higher than the reported number in the quarterly. We participated in this 8c capital raise as our Initial Entry Price in ROC.
JBY had $6.2M in cash at the end of the quarter.

We came across the following interview with JBY’s Executive Director Matt Hayes - Matt always presents really well so it was good to get an update on what’s coming next for JBY:

EMD had $1.8M cash at the end of the quarter.

A standout line from the quarterly report for us - “The coming months will see the launch of funded pilots with major insurers and government health payers.” - A big payer deal is something we have been waiting for.
MAN $13.3M cash at the end of the quarter.

MAN has decided to “limit current expenditure” on its US lithium project. MAN also mentioned “Detailed and advanced reviews of precious and base metals opportunities”... MAN is currently capped at ~$12M and has ~$13.3M cash in the bank - so it is trading below cash backing, and therefore we think definitely has capacity to deal...
MNB had $12.5M cash at the end of the quarter.

We also saw some construction progress shots from MNB’s phosphate project. The company has been fairly quiet from an ASX announcement perspective but it’s good to see real things are finally happening on the ground in Angola...

Once the plant is built and operational it is expected to deliver ~US$55M in EBITDA per year (base case, on average) mine, over a 20 year mine life.

MNB is capped at ~$37M, we think it will be a lot higher once the market starts believing this mine will actually get built and into production...

TTM had $17.2M cash at the end of the quarter.

TTM’s quarterly said that its copper Joint Venture with Hanrine had drilled 3 holes and that the results were being logged and analysed in “preparation for an ASX release”. It looks like there will be a fair bit of newsflow coming in the next 2-3 months.
KAU had $10.9M cash at the end of the quarter.

KAU is still completing its acquisition of the Henty mine in Tasmania from Catalyst Metals. The shareholder vote for the deal is set for 7th May. Once the deal is done and the second tranche of the capital raise is completed KAU should have a pro-forma cash balance of ~$27.2M... and an additional ~25,000 oz per year of gold production.
SLM had $0.8M 28 February 2025, and post quarter end raised $4.5M at 8.5c per share.

Drilling at SLM’s copper projects in Peru should start any week now... in the quarterly SLM says that 2/4 of its targets should be drilled in “Q2 2025” - the current quarter.
MTH had $14.2M at the end of the quarter.

Based on the quarterly, MTH has been drilling with two rigs since early April - the first is drilling to update the company’s existing resource and the second drilling for NEW discoveries... hopefully we see some good drill results from that second rig now at Target 2.

MTH’s share price has been creeping up over the last month.
GGE had $0.6M at the end of the quarter, raised $700k post quarter end.

The GGE quarterly cash balance doesn’t include the $700k the company raised after quarter end (we put some money into this capital raise). So GGE’s cash balance should be slightly higher than the quarterly had reported.
HVY had $39k at the end of the quarter

HVY has a $260k at the market facility to tap if it has to AND is looking to raise ~$2M this quarter with the second tranche of a royalty deal, the last time HVY did that they raised $2.13M... Two interesting takeaways from the HVY quarterly. First a timeline set for the PFS - now expected later this month/early June. Second the mention of a potential deal on “additional industrial minerals”...

CND had $3.2M cash at the end of the quarter.

CND put out some nice photos from the team’s site visit to Peru. The photo of the Corvina production platform was good to see... CND’s ground surrounds that platform...

EIQ had $4.6M cash at the end of the quarter.

A great update from EIQ, especially with the successful FDA pre-submission meeting for its Heart Failure product & the progress the company is making with reimbursement codes on its already FDA approved Aortic Stenosis detection tech.

We also saw a research note from East Coast Research which sets out a bull case price target of $1.01 for EIQ... it’s a great in depth read for anyone interested click on the link below:

(Source)

L1M had $1M cash balance on 31st March 2025.

We are still waiting on results from L1M’s first lithium drill program. Usually when drilling results take this long, it isn't a great sign BUT L1M says that “drilling is ongoing subsequent to the end of the quarter” so that might be an explanation for the lack of results to date.
PFE had a cash balance of $1.36M at March 31st 2025.

The following line from the PFE quarterly was interesting to see - “We look forward to engaging with strategic partners to realise the full potential of this worldclass project”. A lot is happening in the Smackover in Arkansas, USA... hopefully it translates to some action on PFE’s ground soon.
HAR $1.62M cash balance on 31st March 2025.

We are still waiting for HAR to complete the acquisition of its US gold project. HAR did put out an update saying that the shareholder vote to approve the deal is “expected to be held early June 2025”. Once the deal settles HAR will pocket another $4.1M from the second tranche of its latest capital raise at 5c.
WHK US$0.6M cash balance on 31st March 2025.

Right after the quarterly report, WHK updated the market by announcing that its convertible note funding agreement with Lind had been closed out. WHK expects the first orders from its sub-contractor role for the U.S. Federal Government Contract Vehicle this month and in June. Hopefully it means some big $ figure deals to WHK...
KNI $0.65M cash balance on 31st March 2025.

The second line in the KNI quarterly was talking about “New project opportunities”. KNI specifically mentioned “advanced-stage precious metals assets aligned with Kuniko’s diversification strategy”. We are definitely seeing that line in a lot more company’s quarterlies recently so it will be interesting to see what comes of this one...
IIQ $8M cash balance on 31st March 2025.

A lot of moving parts in the IIQ quarterly, one thing that stood out to us was the firm timelines on developing its CAR-exosome therapeutic product... IIQ said “Initial in vivo studies are expected to be completed in Q4 CY25”. See our take on why the therapeutics could be big for IIQ here.
GUE $1.7M cash balance on 31st March 2025.

GUE completed its $10M cap raise at 6.5c in mid-April (where NASDAQ listed Snow Lake Resources took a 19.99% in the company). So the GUE cash balance should be higher than what the quarterly showed.
TRI $1.6M cash balance on 31st March 2025.

TRI still has ~$725k cash to come in from the second tranche of the placement done in mid-March. Total cash should be slightly above $2M after that cash comes in.
TYX had $3.9M at the end of the quarter.

From the CEO’s comments it appears that TYX is looking to focus on "caesium", rather than lithium at its main prospect in Angola. This makes sense as TYX’s main partner Sinomine is leveraged to every producing caesium mine in the world. Caesium is a small market and rare niche mineral that is used in fluid for offshore oil & gas drilling. TYX is also using its in-country connections to look for base metals projects in Angola.

A quick round up on a few others in our Portfolio, here were the cash balances at 31 March 2025 for:

TG1 ($1.3M)
NTI ($5.6M)
BPM ($2M)
GTR ($913k)
SGQ ($5.26M)
GEN (US$1.9M)
SS1 ($12.5M)
ION ($7M)

Deep dive notes we wrote this week

Canyon Resources (ASX:CAY)

Our 2025 Wise-Owl Pick of the Year, CAY, is planning first bauxite production in the first half of 2026 - which isn't too far away now.

CAY owns one of the world’s biggest undeveloped bauxite deposits, not (yet) owned by one of the multi-billion dollar majors.

CAY’s project has a 1 billion tonne JORC resource with an ore reserve of 109Mt in Cameroon, Africa.

That is a resource big enough to be mined for decades.

Earlier this week, CAY received port access approvals, which was the last milestone before its project is ready for a Final Investment Decision (FID).

And there are plenty of other updates pointing to the mine construction progressing quickly:

Kaiser Reef (ASX:KAU)

The gold price keeps charging higher and higher and it's certainly a great time to be a gold producer...

Roughly four weeks ago, KAU announced its acquisition of the profitable Henty gold mine in Tasmania.

This week the current owners of the mine (Catalyst Metals) released quarterly production numbers from the project.

The Henty mine produced 6,064 ounces at an All In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of A$3,283/ounce.

At today’s gold price of ~A$5,200/ounce, that is a A$1,900+ margin for every ounce produced.

$12M profit from the mine in a 3 month period...

(Source - Today's Catalyst Metals quarterly)

KAU will 100% own the Henty gold mine (and its revenue) ~10 days after the EGM to vote through the deal on the 7th of May...

Global Uranium and Enrichment (ASX:GUE)

Remember seeing all those tech billionaires at Trump’s presidential inauguration?

They want cheap US power to fuel massive energy demand growth from AI data centres.

Two months ago President Trump signed an Executive Order to boost domestic critical minerals production which for the first time ever included, you guessed it... uranium.

The macro momentum for "uranium in the USA" is very quickly building in our Investment Global Uranium and Enrichment (ASX:GUE)’s favour.

GUE is targeting a 100M pound uranium resource across its US exploration and development assets.

GUE settled a transaction to acquire 50% of an ISR uranium project in Wyoming, USA. The other 50% is owned by NASDAQ-listed Snow Lake Resources.

As part of the deal, Snow Lake also came onto GUE’s register as a 19.99% shareholder - they paid $5.6M for their stake in GUE at 6.5c per share.

Then earlier this week, GUE increased its project area by ~85%.

Here are the before and after images (in handy GIF format) - keep watching to see the image magically change before your eyes:

Macro News: What we are reading 📰

Healthcare

East Coast Research - EchoIQ (ASX: EIQ)

The East Coast Research Initiation of Coverage note on EIQ is a very good read. There was one chart that stood out to us:

Essentially, this shows how much bigger EIQ’s echo database size is than the competition - a good way of visualising EIQ’s technology moat...

East Coast also had a table listing the companies near-term integration opportunity pipeline - showed EIQ had ~41 sites already integrated/integrating with the potential to triple that with what’s in the pipeline right now:

Geopolitics

“We can start digging” Trump hails Ukraine minerals deal (AFR)

Our Take: We have been writing about how the US is starting to pay attention to critical mineral supply chains in recent weeks. We think this will be the first of many deals the US signs like this in the coming months.

Here is another article we read that speaks to this: A credible strategy emerging to secure US critical supply chains (Appian Capital Advisory)

China Manufacturing Slumps on US Levies, Spurring Stimulus Calls (Bloomberg)

Our Take: China’s factory activity dropped to its lowest level since December 2023, showing early signs of damage from Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Critical Minerals

New battleground in critical minerals race is on Australia’s doorstep (AFR)

Our Take: Last week Trump signed an executive Order to fast-track US exploration of critical minerals in international waters as well as inside its own economic exclusion zones.

The battle for critical minerals supply is now going offshore and into the deep sea space.

We see the moves as a signal onshore, easier to mine supply will become exponentially more valuable in a more fragmented world...

Critical minerals stockpile: Lynas Rare Earths CEO Amanda Lacaze sees big risks in Labor’s plan (AFR)

Our take: Although government intervention provides a nice “sugar hit” for commodity prices and the subsequent mines that come online, stockpiling could actually be seen as bad for the commodity price in the long run.

Without sustainable government support for mines, the cycle of commodity prices will forever continue and the idea of “strategic mineral reserves” will eventually damage the long run ability of countries to secure domestic resources.

Gold

This week Westgold announced a ~$100M upgrade to their Higginsville Mill to ~2.6mtpa processing capacity.

If you look closely at where the Higginsville Mill is located you’ll see GAL’s Norseman project - this is a part of WA that is becoming more and more of a gold hotspot...

For those who remember, this part of WA was also a lithium hot spot back in 2022-2023 with MinRes knocking on the door of all of the junior companies in the area paying up for lithium rights (GAL received A$5M upfront in exchange for its lithium rights - well timed and played GAL).

Is there a chance that this very same area becomes a gold hot spot with the two big operators Westgold and St Ives starting to knock on other juniors' doors?