Trump hosts mining roundtable - announces over $2BN in investments. Here’s how we are positioned.

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd and its associated entities may hold direct or indirect interests in securities referred to in this publication and may receive fees or other forms of consideration from entities mentioned. These interests and arrangements may create a potential conflict of interest in the preparation of this material.

The information contained in this communication is provided for general information purposes only and may relate to speculative investments. It does not constitute financial product advice, and has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider obtaining independent financial advice before making any investment decision.

Any forward-looking statements are uncertain and not a guaranteed outcome.

Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced over US$2BN in deals with mining/refining companies.

All of this happened Saturday morning Aussie time - so the ASX hasn’t really had any time to react to it YET.

(source)

In addition to the $2BN plus in funding for critical mineral projects there was also over US$180M set aside for mining schools around America.

Trump said in his speech after the roundtable that the US graduates "less than 170 mining engineers each year while China graduates more than 3,000".(source)

So the US plan isn’t just to pump hot money into the sector - but to also build a generation of Americans with mining/refining expertise.

Another signal for us that the US minerals macro thematic may be a multi-decade longer term trend.

Here is the full ~30 minute video of Trump's speech and the mining industry roundtable:

(source)

The key takeaway for us from that speech:

Mine funding and permits are no longer the bottleneck for US mining projects.

When this much capital and attention is swirling around a small sector, M&A and takeovers usually follow.

Big cashed up companies will now have a mandate (and political cover) to roll up US mining projects into the "new BHPs and RIOs".

On funding and permitting Trump explicitly said:

• "Over the past 18 months, our administration has signed or approved more than 160 minerals deals worth nearly $40 billion." and
  
  
• "Before I took office, federal mining permits took three, four, or even five years. Now they take as little as 25 days." - the example mentioned in the speech was the Resolution copper mine which started permitting in 2005 and got permitted earlier this year.

Here are timestamps to other pretty powerful moments during the speech:

• 1:46 - "We're putting our miners back to work and we're reclaiming America's rightful place as the minerals superpower of the world" And at 3:27 - "...never again reliant on hostile foreign nations for the resources our country needs"
  
  
• 6:35 - "...rebuilding the national defense stockpile and investing more than $12 billion in a brand new strategic mineral reserve"
  
  
• 8:02 - "...an unprecedented $100 billion to underwrite critical investments in our mineral supply"
  
  
• 8:09 - "For the first time ever, we are even making direct equity investments in critical mineral production"
  
  
• 21:02 - US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick: "Critical minerals are more than an economic issue. They are a national security issue"
  
  
• 23:37 - Lutnick: "...make sure the United States, not our adversaries, controls the supply chains"

(so many mentions of national security...)

Believe it or not - 40 years ago the USA was the undisputed world mining and refining superpower.

Trump talked to this in his speech too, saying “The United States lost more than 3,400 mines over the past three decades."

Then globalisation came in and the US started slowly outsourcing mining to cheaper countries.

Making China the new mining and refining superpower.

No one really cared for a while because everything was becoming cheaper, but then China started withholding supply of these critical minerals to gain leverage in geopolitical stoushes.

And now the US is trying to reverse decades of outsourcing ASAP.

The Department of War even posted the below on X - saying the US is “Mineral Maxxing”.

(already trying to engage the youngsters with their slang - well played Department of War social media team)

(source)

That X post is why we think US critical minerals as a macro thematic is about to level-up in terms of “level of interest and capital” coming its way.

Great for our US critical minerals Investments:

Our US critical minerals Investments and links to our Investment Memo for each one:

• ION - Rare earths recycling tech in Oklahoma. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• RML - Antimony, tungsten + gold in Idaho. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• VKA - Tungsten in Nevada. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• OD6 - Fluorspar in Nevada. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• AW1 - Indium, gallium, germanium + copper in Utah. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• SS1 - Silver + (potentially antimony) in Nevada. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• BKB - Silver in Texas (+ gold in Nevada). (read our Investment Memo)
  
• RCM - Gallium and Germanium in Canada. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• LKY - Antimony + rare earths in California. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• LSR - Heavy rare earths in Arizona. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• PFE - Antimony + silver in Arkansas. (read our Investment Memo)

US critical Minerals on our macro theme stages chart

We pulled together this image back in September last year:

It is our way of mapping how we Invest in macro thematics as they evolve.

Big macro thematics don't happen often.

But when they do they bring with them a lot of momentum, big crowds of investors and a tsunami of capital looking for exposure in companies that previously nobody really cared about.

We call it “interest and capital” - basically people being suddenly interested enough in an emerging sector theme to invest in it.

Our approach is to try to identify the investment thematic early and position ourselves to have maximum exposure as we enter stage 3 & 4 of the macro thematic.

Remember when we said we think the US critical minerals macro theme is still in its early stages? (source - our August 2025 note)

No?

Well here is what we said:

(source)

We also said we would know we are in late stage three, about to enter stage four, when the US government (and defence contractors/industry participants) started going hard in the sector.

Now we think US critical minerals as a macro thematic entered late stage three (and possibly early stage four) over the weekend...

Leading up to this, within the last 30 days the US has announced:

• On the ~19th of July - Trump tells America to go make magnets in an interview - A speech urging defence contractors and "brilliant minds" to pivot into manufacturing high-performance permanent magnets. This is a direct quote: "I'll Tell You How To Make Money: Do Magnets"
  
• 20th July - EXECUTIVE ORDER #1 - “Securing America's Defense Supply Chains and Ensuring Domestic Acquisition of Critical Materials”.
  
  
• And there's a hard deadline bolted onto it: 1 January 2027. A ban on foreign imports of critical minerals for US military use. That's five months away.
  
  
• 24th July - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China's rare earth exports still fall short of its May summit commitments.
  
• 27th July - Reuters and Bloomberg report that the administration is weighing extending Chinese rare earth magnet access PAST its own 1 Jan 2027 cutoff. Why? Because Pentagon suppliers including MP Materials, USA Rare Earth and Lynas have admitted domestic processing and magnet capacity won't be ready in time
  
• 29th July - The US Army awarded Lockheed Martin US$5.86BN - the largest-ever PAC-3 Patriot deal - as part of a US$59BN push to "urgently" build thousands more missiles.
  
• 29th July. The US fighter fleet is already below Congress's 1,145 primary aircraft floor, and shrinks to about 3,000 total jets by 2029.
  
• 30th July - EXECUTIVE ORDER #2 - Trump restricts EXPORTS of recovered and recycled critical minerals - e-waste, black mass and magnets - under Defense Production Act authority.

And, in the last 18 months we have seen the following deals get done:

(source - we used AI to put this list together)

But it's the last few Executive Orders and announcements from the US government that are showing a lot more urgency/intent.

Especially that one from back in July "Securing America's Defense Supply Chains and Ensuring Domestic Acquisition of Critical Materials"...

... Which basically means that the trillion dollar US military industrial complex (i.e. companies that supply the US military) can no longer get the required US government waiver allowing importing of critical minerals from non-compliant sources (i.e. China)...

UNLESS they demonstrate SERIOUS efforts to source these critical minerals domestically INSIDE US borders first.

So the trillion $ machine that is the USA military industrial complex has suddenly been told, by the US President, to urgently prioritise domestic USA supply of critical minerals.

And not just told... there are now real, financial AND legal repercussions IF they don’t...

(Read the full Executive Order here)

And the biggest kicker is a lot of these directives kick in on the 1st of January 2027.

AND before that on the 10th of November 2026 China's one-year "suspension" of its critical minerals export controls expires.

IF that suspension lapses... full restrictions come back into force for the minerals below:

(source - download the full report here)

So the next four months are definitely going to be interesting for US critical minerals as a macro thematic...

Maybe everything we wrote about on Saturday will actually start playing out now - and that second wind (like battery metals in 2020-22) begins today...

Check out our weekender here: US Critical Minerals - Is the Second Wave Starting Now?

What all of this means for Investments with USA based critical minerals projects:

We think US based critical minerals projects will now start seeing more interest, capital and attention go their ways.

And fundamentally the ones that are in a position to do so, will start:

• Early testing and qualification of mineral samples
• Paying for test work, pilot plants, and sample programs.
• Signing offtake agreements (with pre-payments)
• Capital injections (equity investment and other project financing) to secure this future domestic supply

And then a lucky few (hopefully some of ours) will land long term offtake agreements with $ pre-payment upfront from major military suppliers?

Or funding for demonstration plants?

Maybe even mine build financing? Who knows?

Urgency is what moves money into small cap stocks like these - and now major US military contractors can no longer sit on their hands and just file paperwork.

This money is a tiny drop in the ocean for them, but a company making cash injection for our small stocks to fast track their US based critical mineral project.

Our US critical minerals Investments and links to our Investment Memo for each one:

• ION - Rare earths recycling tech in Oklahoma. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• RML - Antimony, tungsten + gold in Idaho. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• VKA - Tungsten in Nevada. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• OD6 - Fluorspar in Nevada (+ rare earths in WA). (read our Investment Memo)
  
• AW1 - Indium, gallium, germanium + copper in Utah. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• SS1 - Silver + (potentially antimony) in Nevada. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• BKB - Silver in Texas (+ gold in Nevada). (read our Investment Memo)
  
• RCM - Gallium and Germanium in Canada. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• LKY - Antimony + rare earths in California. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• LSR - Heavy rare earths in Arizona. (read our Investment Memo)
  
• PFE - Antimony + silver in Arkansas. (read our Investment Memo)

Check out our deep dives into each company here: Here are all of our US critical minerals Investments - the stocks we think can win from this

In the deep dives we detail:

• What each company does,
• What commodity + use cases it has exposure to
• Each company’s project’s location
• A brief overview of the company
• The company’s enterprise value AND
• The “one image story”.

We are expecting a strong market open across most of these names...

AND hopefully it isn’t just a one day thing but more of the start of a sustained rally...

We tried to keep this one short so we can watch the open...

Anyone wanting to see more of our US critical minerals macro coverage check out the following:

• BREAKING: Trump signs executive forcing US military suppliers to source critical minerals from inside US borders
  
  
• How did the US get here
  
  
• We predicted something like this was coming...
  
  
• Why we think capital is going to flow into US critical minerals in a big way...
  
  
• US Critical Minerals - Is the Second Wave Starting Now?
  
  
• 372 Pages of (US critical minerals) Confirmation Bias (Thanks IEA)

What could go against the macro thematic

The big obvious risk with everything in this article is IF the US critical minerals thematic stalls or reverses.

The urgency driving all of this is China withholding supply.

IF Trump and Xi cut a deal (they are due to meet in September) a lot of the urgency (and capital) could drain out of the sector.

Executive Orders can also be delayed, watered down, tied up in courts or reversed by a future administration.

And the trillion dollar US military industrial complex is a slow moving beast - directives from the top can take years to actually flow through procurement contracts and into project-level deals.

There is also no guarantee our stocks receive ANY of the attention, capital or deals we are hoping for.

Most of the US government money so far has gone to the big, advanced "national champions" - companies like MP Materials and Perpetua Resources that are in or near production.

Our Investments are mostly early stage explorers - they may never progress to the stage where they attract a government grant, an offtake or a strategic investment. Being "in the right place with the right commodity" isn't enough on its own.

Then there are the usual small cap risks:

Exploration risk - a good chunk of our US critical minerals stocks are drilling right now with assays pending. Statistically, most drill results disappoint rather than impress. And a bad result released into a hot market usually gets punished harder than usual.

Funding and dilution risk - almost every company in our list is pre-revenue and will need to raise money again at some point. If the raise lands during a weak patch in the market, it comes at a lower price and dilutes existing shareholders (including us).

Sentiment risk - a strong open on Monday doesn't mean a sustained rally. Hot money can leave a sector as quickly as it arrived, and small caps fall hardest when general market sentiment turns (rising bond yields, war escalation, a broader risk-off move - take your pick from the current menu).

And remember - we are biased. We hold positions across all of the stocks mentioned in this note and we are long US critical minerals exposure, so we WANT this thematic to play out.

These are speculative, high risk investments. Do your own research, seek professional advice and never invest more than you can afford to lose.