Sunday Edition: 23rd November

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd and its associated entities may hold direct or indirect interests in securities referred to in this publication and may receive fees or other forms of consideration from entities mentioned. These interests and arrangements may create a potential conflict of interest in the preparation of this material.

The information contained in this communication is provided for general information purposes only and may relate to speculative investments. It does not constitute financial product advice, and has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider obtaining independent financial advice before making any investment decision.

Only a few weeks til Christmas now.

What might it take for a Santa rally to happen this year?

(A Christmas miracle after Friday’s broad sell off? At least global markets bounced back on Friday night promising a positive Monday on the ASX)

We run through a few scenarios in our Saturday note here.

Below is a summary and links for everything else we wrote about last week, along with some other interesting content we found in relation to our Portfolio.

Quick Takes: BPM, L1M, LKY, ION, AW1, PNN, AVM, AL3, TTM, GEN, SS1, ILA, EMD, BKB

Deep Dives: ILA, ROC, CND

Microcap explorer BPM revealed a NEW set of priority drill targets on its WA gold project.

BPM should start drilling at its project any day now, chasing a prospect that was last drilled by $62BN AngloGold ~19 years ago.

The new targets “Bonnie” and “Clyde” revealed last week sit across ~6km and is to the south of Anglo’s 70% owned 8m Oz Tropicana asset.

Listen to BPM CEO Oliver Judd run through the story at a Euroz Hartleys webinar a few days back.

We are looking forward to catching up with Oliver again next week in Melbourne for an update and run through of the latest BPM Investor Presentation.

Another of our microcap explorers, L1M, announced a batch of exploration results from its gold-copper project in QLD.

L1M hit gold in 8 of 9 holes beneath the pits that were mined back in the 1980s and 1990s.

The results from rock chip samples caught our attention - gold grades up to 21.9g/t which makes the prospective strike ~12km long now. L1M is now planning follow up drilling.

LKY entered into a research partnership with Columbia University for rare earth processing tech.

LKY has already received a US$191M Letter of Interest from the US Export Import Bank for its project.

Will the two processing techs LKY is working on (antimony and now rare earths) open doors to other non-dilutive financing opportunities available to US critical minerals companies? (we hope so)

ION released economic analysis on its technology being used to recover rare earths from spent permanent magnets.

ION modelled economics for 2,000 tonne per annum modular plants.

Economic modelling for one singular modular unit indicated ~US$4.6M capex which returned US$7M in post-tax NPV with a 2.6-year payback.

For us it was a first look at what a roll out strategy would look like for ION - remembering that ION is working with one of the USA’s largest and most advanced eWaste recycling companies for rare earths.

Following that news, ION went into a trading halt on Friday for a capital raise. We should see early next week details of this funding round.

AW1 identified a >4km long copper anomaly at its project in Canada.

We noted when we first Invested in AW1, that the 20.6mt at 1.1% copper JORC resource estimate on this asset could get bigger with more drilling...

The >4km long anomaly is completely undrilled and could be a way the mine life of the asset extends beyond the currently modelled ~6 year mine life for the project.

PNN will test gallium processing tech on its project in Brazil.

Gallium is a critical input for semiconductors and defence - China currently controls ~98% of the market.

We have seen a fair few companies start to talk about processing tech partnerships, but as far as we are aware, PNN is the first ASX micro cap looking at gallium refining tech...

It's early days for PNN, but we are looking forward to seeing what comes from the testing.

This week PNN also updated the market on its Argentinian lithium project.

We are mainly Invested in PNN for the US and Brazilian rare earth assets however the lithium asset definitely crosses our mind when we see positive macro news in the lithium space.

The Argentine lithium asset is hard to ignore given it is “post discovery” and PNN has locked in a Joint Venture partner to fund project development.

(Source)

AVM announced assay results from its Victorian gold project.

AVM reported assays from a visible gold intercept which we wrote about extensively in a deep dive note in late October.

The assay delivered 3.7m at 16.6 g/t gold from the deepest hole confirming ~500 m vertical mineralisation.

A second diamond rig is now drilling the Queen of the Hills prospect along strike. Any win on those regional targets could add weight to comparisons between AVM and the $1BN plus Southern Cross Gold.

This week AVM also got back to drilling at its 17.2M oz silver equivalent foreign resource estimate project in Mexico.

AL3 sold a $1.7M 3D printing system to FasTech LLC in the US.

FasTech is a US defence, aerospace, and energy supplier.

That will be the ninth AL3 system sold in the US and builds on recent momentum, including the order from a subsidiary of the USA’s largest shipbuilder Huntington Ingalls.

TTM hit porphyry-hosted gold and copper at its 3.1M ounce gold, 22M ounce silver Dynasty Gold Project.

TTM has been working up the deeper mineralised porphyry theory for over 6 months now... and with the first round of deeper drilling, TTM seems to have confirmed it.

TTM now has four diamond rigs operating ahead of a mineral resource estimate upgrade in Q1 2026 (hopefully some of that deeper stuff get into the resource).

Our iron ore Investment GEN raised $25.7M - a capital raise which we participated in.

The raise included ~$7.7M in debt to equity swaps from GEN’s directors.

(Director buying - or in this case converting debt - is always a good signal for us)

For the first time in a relatively long time, GEN will have a fair bit of a cash runway to complete a PFS update and progress toward a Final Investment Decision.

ASX:SS1 / OTC: SSLVF hit silver well above the average grades in its giant 480M ounce silver equivalent resource estimate.

The average grade across SS1’s resource sits at ~68.3g/t silver equivalent. The assay results this week delivered a 102m intercept with an average grade of 105 g/t silver equivalent.

Hopefully that means the resource average grade goes up with SS1’s next resource update/upgrade.

Our 2025 Biotech Pick of the Year ILA is now increasing US government engagement for its Marburg disease drug Galidesivir....

ILA will now have advisors working with the company to strengthen government relations and position ILA for what we hope will be US government stockpiling deals should the Marburg drug be FDA approved.

For context - those US government stockpiling deals typically range in the ~US$100M-US$1.2BN annually.

EMD raised $8M and exercised its option to establish its first clinic in Victoria.

EMD will now have a fairly strong runway to focus on a rollout of its clinics Australia wide.

EMD now has payers for its Psychedelics treatments (Medibank and the Department Of Veteran Affairs) AND now it also has cash to scale up the business.

BKB (ex JBY) completed the acquisition of the Shafter Silver project in Texas, USA.

James Bay Minerals (ASX: JBY) no more - update your watch lists and notifications:

JBY is now Black Bear Minerals (ASX:BKB).

BKB now owns two 100%-held US projects: the 1.37Moz Independence Gold Project in Nevada and the Shafter Silver Project with a 17.5Moz silver foreign resource with ~$150M in existing infrastructure.

Island Pharmaceuticals (ASX:ILA)

This week we announced ILA as our 2025 Biotech Pick of the Year...

... after the US Federal Drug Agency (the FDA) agreed that ILA’s drug for the Marburg virus could be eligible for fast track approvals and a valuable Priority Review Voucher.

These “tradable” PRVs are inherently valuable on their own because companies can sell them to other companies. On average, they selling for ~US$100M (A$156M).

ILA has effectively been approved to skip the 15+ year, expensive, process of human phase 2 & 3 clinical trials.

ILA now has a path to FDA approvals and commercialisation of its Galidesivir drug for Marburg virus within 12 months...

Using the “Animal Rule”, which is designed to fast track approval of drugs when traditional human trials are not ethical or feasible - such as treatments for diseases caused by dangerous chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear agents.

We had been waiting for months to find out if the US FDA would advise whether or not ILA’s Galidesivir drug for the Marburg virus is eligible for “fast track approvals” and a valuable “Priority Review Voucher”...

This week ILA announced that the FDA said yes:

(source)

Read more: ILA: Our Biotech Pick of the Year

RocketBoots (ASX:ROC)

ROC is now starting to build up a bit of momentum in its sales pipeline.

About three months ago ROC signed a $140k, three month trial with a major Mexican retail bank - a customer with over 1,000 branches (source).

Then just under two weeks ago, ROC announced a $320k contract RENEWAL across 250 sites with a “Major Australian Retailer” - with the partnership moving into the 8th year running (source) (we assume this was Bunnings).

This week ROC announced a new “Major Australian Retail Bank” that had commenced a trial back in August has converted to a contract rollout worth $190k in year 1 (source, source).

This “stage A” roll out is to less than 10% of this bank's branches and future site rollouts are being evaluated with decisions expected next quarter - so still plenty of room to grow.

So we have seen a major existing customer re-new a large contract AND a new customer quickly move from trial to expanded contract rollout, and a major international enterprise go on a paid trial.

But what really caught our attention in this week’s ROC announcement was this line:

The Company continues to progress advanced commercial discussions across 14 international enterprise customers, representing ~20,000 potential sites across grocery, retail and banking verticals.

(Source)

Based on the assumption that ROC charges ~$3,500 per year per site for its tech (source, ROC investor deck slide 10).

That advanced sales pipeline amounts to a total potential contract value of ~$70M.

(of course like any sales pipeline, there’s no guarantee it all converts, and timing is always uncertain - this is by no means any kind of sales forecast)

At 12.5c/share ROC is capped at $21M.

ROC reported $746k in cash receipts in FY25 (source).

So even converting just 10% of our estimated $70M potential revenue in its ADVANCED stage pipeline would be almost a 10X growth in cash receipts for ROC.

Read more: ROC: “Vision Artificial Intelligence” technology - new contracts and renewals.

Condor Energy ASX:CND

CND showed us this week that its estimated 3 billion barrel prospective oil resource could be about to get bigger.

CND also has an existing 1 trillion cubic feet gas discovery.

(yes, a “discovery” - we’ve lost count of how many oil & gas explorers we have invested in over the last 20 years TRYING to make a discovery - microcap CND already has a major one)

CND’s offshore block in Peru is surrounded by $215BN TotalEnergies.

...and sits to the north of $473BN Chevron and $63BN Occidental’s blocks.

All three supermajors entered Peru... AFTER CND.

Over the last two weeks, CND has:

1. Identified a potential extension to one of its large oil exploration prospects, and
2. Signed an MoU to look at development options for its 1tcf gas discovery... WITH the Peruvian division of Promigas - the gas distributor for 94% of the market in Peru and 38% in Columbia. (source)

We think CND’s relatively small $13.6M valuation is a function of the recent risk off sentiment from investors willing to fund offshore oil and gas.

But we have seen the juniors with assets like CND’s move on exploration success recently...

And we think that there is a precedent in the market for small caps like CND to re-rate off a “farm-in partnership”.

CND has previously said a “Farmout process commenced with multiple parties in data room”... (source)

Read more: CND: 3 billion barrels of oil prospective resource. 1Tcf gas DISCOVERY. $13.6M market cap. Oil & gas back in 2026?

BPM - A major gold system, a major gold discovery in the making

RML - CRITICAL MINERALS WITHIN A GOLDEN HALO

AW1 - Corporate Presentation

HAR - High-Impact Drilling over Two Proven Gold Systems

AFR - Australia’s ‘The Future Fund’ pivots to gold, active managers and inflation-proof assets as it warns of a “permacrisis” era where traditional 60/40 portfolios and passive strategies falter.

Reuters - Indonesia is planning to impose 7.5% -15% gold export taxes next year, targeting windfall profits and pushing miners to refine domestically as soaring gold prices and exports hit record highs.

Bloomberg - Gina Rinehart increased her rare-earths play holding, becoming MP Materials’ largest shareholder as its Pentagon-backed value surged, deepening her footprint in America’s critical minerals supply chain.

Our Investment LKY sits right beside (and even has some land inside) MP Materials ground it expects to drill from next month, plus Gina took part in another of our Investments, Brazilian based REE SGQ’s raise recently with $22.5M of the $72.5M raised.

The U.S. Department of War - The US is pledging US$700M in conditional loans between Vulcan Elements and ReElement Technologies to boost domestic rare-earth magnet production and secure critical minerals supply chains, this is a part of the “Big Beautiful Bill” passed earlier in the year.

This shows the US critical minerals theme is not slowing down and that the US is committed to creating its own supply chain.

Forbes - CAR-T cancer therapy (Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-cells therapy) is booming, this article explains CAR-T and details a few ASX listed companies developing CAR-T drugs to break into a multibillion-dollar market.

It mentions our best performing stock of 2023 ALA, while our current Investment IIQ is also working in this space.

Bloomberg - Americans are going “California sober” this Thanksgiving as cannabis-infused drinks and dishes replace booze, a booming US$30BN trend reshaping holiday habits and the alcohol industry.

This general theme is why we Invested in AGH, which from its recent quarterly is experiencing increased sales in both the USA and Canada, with increased production runs already booked in for this quarter in the US, see our coverage on the recent quarterly.

Island Pharmaceuticals (ASX: ILA) Research Update: FDA Confirms Animal Rule Pathway for Galidesivir (Prenzler Group)

Locksley Resources Limited (ASX: LKY | OTCQX: LKYRF) Virtual Investor Conferences November 19th: Australian Rare Earths & Critical Minerals Virtual Investor Conference

Resolution Minerals Ltd (ASX: RML | OTCQB: RLMLF) Virtual Investor Conferences November 19th: Australian Rare Earths & Critical Minerals Virtual Investor Conference

Pantera Lithium (ASX:PFE) - Investor Webinar - 19 November 2025

Are These 10 Strategic Metals Overrated or Underrated? (Money of Mine)

Doomberg: Gold Revaluation, Why The EU 'Must Dismantle' & War with Venezuela

A word of caution...

While we aim to highlight developments in the small cap space, investing in early-stage and small cap companies - like those we cover - is inherently risky.

These companies often face funding challenges, regulatory hurdles, and market volatility. Announcements may reflect aspirations more than guaranteed outcomes.

Things can, and often do, change.

Just because a company has signed a deal, released drill results, or appointed a new director doesn’t mean success is assured.

Always assume delays, cost overruns, or results that don’t pan out.

We’re here to share insights, not offer personal financial advice - so please do your own research and speak with a licensed adviser before acting on anything mentioned.

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Bye for now.