Sunday Edition: 18th January

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd and its associated entities may hold direct or indirect interests in securities referred to in this publication and may receive fees or other forms of consideration from entities mentioned. These interests and arrangements may create a potential conflict of interest in the preparation of this material.

The information contained in this communication is provided for general information purposes only and may relate to speculative investments. It does not constitute financial product advice, and has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider obtaining independent financial advice before making any investment decision. Any forward-looking statements are uncertain and not a guaranteed outcome.

As 2026 kicks off, yesterday we wrote about what we got right in 2025 - turns out a fair bit.

The only thing we didn’t manage to find and add was a countercyclical, beaten down, later stage battery metals project...

We are adding a new Portfolio addition next week - stay tuned.

Find out more in our Saturday note - click here to read.

This morning we watched this video from the Saudi Arabia hosted “Future Minerals Forum” where “Special Assistant to the US president, National Security Council” David Copley, talks about the USA’s intent on critical metals and mining ambitions:

(watch it here)

“Mining companies are going to get a lot of attention from guys like me, and other governments around the world”

“Over the next few years the US government will deploy hundreds of billions in capital into the mining sector.”

The ~4 minute section from this guy is well worth a watch.

Another day, another set of overt statements that the US is getting even more serious about critical metals supply.

Quick Takes: SS1, AVM, PNN, VKA, RCM, MTH, TG1, BKB, ONE

Deep Dives: HAR, Sprott ETF buying of IVR, SS1, WCE & BKB, TTM, BKB, RML

SS1 (OTC: SSLVF) hit silver grades over and above the averages inside its giant silver deposit in Nevada, USA.

SS1 has the USA’s largest undeveloped silver project (539M oz silver equivalent).

SS1 intercepted 33.77m @ 224.5g/t silver equivalent, around triple its average resource grade, just as silver prices hit new highs on Fed turmoil (check our deep dive note on this further down).

AVM hit more high grade silver mineralisation at its Yoquivo project in Mexico.

AVM struck 14.1m @ 320g/t silver equivalent, including an exceptionally high 5,739g/t Ag equivalent interval from the results.

This showed mineralisation extending a further 70-80m down-dip and importantly outside the current resource model. We wait to see how this impacts the pending resource upgrade.

PNN released an update on the status of the joint venture of its lithium project in Argentina.

With lithium prices showing continued strength, PNN is taking back full control of its advanced Rincon Lithium Project in Argentina after terminating its JV with Navigate Energy.

So now PNN regains holding 100% of the asset, which sits near $185BN Rio Tinto and $170M Argosy Minerals.

On top of this move, PNN is already in talks with new partners to fast-track development.

VKA took bulk samples from one of its tungsten projects in Nevada, USA.

VKA’s first bulk samples from its newly acquired Tungsten Nevada project returned 1.3% tungsten from the historic Linka open pit and an average overall from all bulk samples of 1.0%.

With the US having zero domestic supply and prices at all-time highs, VKA is proving up more than solid grades, with these well above the ~0.2% some companies are mining.

Also, VKA added more ground to its US tungsten asset portfolio.

VKA expanded its Nevada footprint by ~20km2, securing ground surrounding its historic Linka mine and other prospects that have mining history.

The announcement showed some geophysics data that was acquired/used by VKA which now holds all of the land encompassing the magnetic high shown on the data.

So we wait to see what VKA reveals underneath...

RCM saw its largest shareholder, Eric Sprott, buy more shares on market.

Mining billionaire Eric Sprott acquired an additional ~$1M of RCM shares to his portfolio, buying them on market, increasing his total stake to 10.79%.

With RCM holding an estimated ~67Moz of silver equivalent and assays pending, the world's biggest silver bull is doubling down on RCM.

MTH (OTC: MTIRF | TSX: MSG) started drilling “Target 3” at its project in Mexico.

MTH has launched a massive 25,000m drilling campaign across three Mexican targets.

The wait is over now with drilling now live at the historic "Target 3" area and historic mines. When we were visiting MTH’s site last year, these were the mines where the locals were telling us about their high grade mineralisation.

Assays are pending from the main resource area, with MTH recently noting they are experiencing lab delays (perhaps not unexpected in this market).

TG1 provided an update on its exploration plan for the year.

TG1 has plans to drill four projects this year, starting with the Mt Boggola Copper-Gold-Antimony project in February.

With copper prices at all time highs, the company plans to drill two WA copper assets before mid-year, with our favourite target “Blue Devil” set for Q2 drilling.

There are also further works planned for the recently acquired Dalgaranga project.

BKB (OTC: BKBMF) hit extensions to its gold project in Nevada, USA.

BKB hit shallow gold extensions including 61m @ 0.4g/t gold equivalent at its 1.37Moz gold Nevada project, which sits right on the border of the massive Nevada Gold Mines JV.

Drilling is now complete at Rebel Peak, with drilling expected to get back underway on other areas of the project following a winter weather break when weather allows.

BKB expects to be back drilling at Rebel Peak soon, and is already planning to use current drill results to plan a follow up program.

A resource upgrade is due in Q2 and we think that this asset is becoming a strategic target for its giant neighbours.

ONE released its December quarterly report.

ONE’s technology is now available to a massive new health system with over 85 hospitals and 15,000 beds.

Leveraging its partnership with $16BN giant Baxter, ONE has just tapped into a pipeline that is double its current 14,880 connected rooms.

And on the financial side, the numbers have continued to improve for ONE, with another quarter of improved receipts while costs remained steady.

Haranga Resources (ASX:HAR)

Our gold Investment Haranga Resources (ASX:HAR) was one of the companies we had on our “watch closely” list going into the Christmas/New Year period.

HAR had drill results incoming from two projects - one in Senegal and one in the USA - just as the gold price has hit new all time highs over the break.

Results from HAR’s USA gold project could drop any day now (more on this in the link below).

This week’s results were from Senegal where HAR has now extended the gold structures on its ground across ~800m.

Adding to the first batch of gold assays from this project that really surprised the market (including us).

HAR drilled hole #8 back in October 2025 and hit 20m at 6.54g/t gold...

That hit started the rally in HAR’s share price from 8.6c to where it finished this week at 18c per share.

That first batch of results were strong enough for HAR to go straight into a second shallow round of drilling.

Now after this week’s results we can see a clear 800m zone HAR can target with deeper drilling (which it’s planning to do later THIS quarter)

(source)

And we note, that’s a tiny ~800m section of the broader project area which has gold in soils over ~5km.

(source)

Most importantly, though, HAR is seeing enough to commit to a third round of drilling, which will be the first time HAR drills the project with a heavier RC rig - capable of drilling to bigger depths.

(All of the drilling so far has been holes down to ~20-85m depths).

We know there is ~800m of strike to test and a fair few holes that ended in mineralisation.

This quarter, we get to see HAR drill at depth and see what’s sitting below those structures.

(and finally chase those holes that end in mineralisation at depth)

Here is a cross-section of one hole that ended in mineralisation “within bedrock”:

(source)

HAR’s announcement this week noted quartz veins measuring 15-20m and that the deeper drilling will be when we get a full understanding of the grades in the bedrock.

Read more: HAR: 800m of continuous gold mineralisation - deeper drilling to start this quarter

IVR, SS1, WCE & BKB - Sprott Silver ETF buying

We had to double check this video wasn’t AI when we first saw it earlier in the week:

(source)

It’s essentially the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell accusing the US government of putting forward a legal case for criminal charges against him for budget discrepancies on some building works.

But the market is really interpreting it as the US government going after him because he is refusing to lower interest rates.

The US Fed is meant to be independent and make decisions based on the state of the US/global economy alone.

But Trump wants rates lower to unleash growth and investment in the US...

In the market’s eyes, IF the FED is no longer independent then trust in the USD as the global reserve currency is threatened.

The video was posted on X Monday at ~11:32am AEDT.

Almost immediately, gold and silver started running and BOTH hit new all time highs this week.

(source)(source)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

That was the market's reaction to a world where the US Fed’s independence is in question.

(or maybe to just how serious the Trump administration is about lowering interest rates quickly and aggressively)

What we saw earlier this week was precious metals once again becoming the asset that the market runs into during signs of uncertainty - like it has throughout history.

With silver being the strongest mover...

In the below deep dive note we explain what ETF and index buying is and how it could drive silver stocks to the next level.

The “Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF” is a Nasdaq‐listed fund that seeks to track a silver‐focused index by investing mainly in silver mining companies and some physical silver.

The fund is one of the biggest and well known names in the silver sector.

The Sprott silver ETF has been buying on market a few of our silver Investments (SS1, IVR, WCE and BKB)

Its biggest holding from our Portfolio for a few months has been SS1.

It's gone particularly hard and fast into one stock in recent weeks - IVR.

Read more: US Fed Chair Powell subpoenaed - silver and gold both hit NEW all time highs. Index buying driving silver stocks? plus one new announcement...

Titan Minerals (ASX:TTM)

Titan Minerals (ASX:TTM) already has a 3.1M ounce gold and 22M ounce silver mineral resource estimate.

Earlier this week TTM announced “spectacular” drill results, including a peak 38.5m, 3g/t gold hit. (source)

A mineral resource update that includes all of TTM’s new drilling is due late this quarter.

(TTM’s been drilling the asset for over a year so we are hoping it's a material upgrade to its already huge gold and silver resource estimate).

Earlier this week was also the end of the “90-day exclusivity period for a corporate transaction” with TTM’s biggest shareholder, the US$5.2BN capped gold producer Lingbao.

According to this week’s announcement, TTM and Lingbao are currently in “advanced discussions” for a “corporate transaction” - so we could see an update on a deal soon...

On October 15th last year, the ~US$5.2BN Chinese gold producer Lingbao Gold International invested US$10M cash into our TTM.

That investment was for ~9% of TTM, and was completed at 59c/share - a 33% premium to the 30 day VWAP at the time.

That investment also gave Lingbao a 90 day exclusivity period to conduct further due diligence and for the companies to negotiate terms for a potential project level transaction for TTM’s Dynasty Gold Project.

That deal was announced just over 90 days ago now.

Since October 15th, we have noticed the wording of TTM’s announcements evolve to indicate that there could be a deal for all of TTM’s projects in Ecuador on the table - not just the Dynasty project that is the subject of the exclusivity period.

Here is what TTM said in this week’s announcement:

(source)

Over the course of this exclusivity period, TTM’s share price has also been steadily increasing ... which tells us the market is suspecting something positive must be going on...

Given the 90 day exclusivity period has now officially passed, we think this means that any day now, a firm offer could be on the table for all of TTM’s Ecuadorian gold, silver and copper assets.

Whatever offer comes from the “advanced discussions”, we would hope it is at a premium to the current market price of TTM - just like that strategic investment was back in October.

(no guarantees of course, this is just our speculation based on the announcements we have read to date and an analysis of past M&A deals)

As we wait for news on a firm offer for TTM, the company continues to release strong drill results which indicate the quality of the Dynasty asset.

Read more: Time’s up: Is TTM about to get taken over? Good time to have released “spectacular” drill results with 38.5m @ ~3g/t gold

Black Bear Minerals (ASX:BKB | OTC: BKBMF)

We made Black Bear Minerals (ASX:BKB | OTC: BKBMF) our 2025 Small Cap Pick Of The Year after it acquired an advanced-stage, high-grade 17.6Moz silver project in the US.

The project has ~$150M+ of silver mining and processing infrastructure that was last producing silver in 2012-2013 before going into care and maintenance because silver prices fell to ~US$18 per ounce.

This week silver touched highs of US$93 per ounce.

(for anyone who watches the silver price daily - what a run, right? Unbelievable - but as always... past performance is not an indicator of future performance)

Our thesis with BKB is to see the company restart its silver processing plant, then start mining and selling silver ASAP while the silver price trades at “new normal” highs.

We wrote this investment thesis a few months back - when silver was US$46, now it's up at US$93.

Which means the read through value of BKB’s silver asset is a fair bit more now...

This week, BKB appointed Ausenco (a global engineering company) to do an operational restart assessment study for the project.

Basically a comprehensive engineering report that will give BKB a reasonable cost estimate for a “rapid restart” of this silver mine.

(source)

At $93 per ounce, the in-ground value of BKB’s silver resource is $1.6BN USD - ($2.4BN AUD).

(of course, all that silver is contained in rocks underground, in a resource ‘estimate’, and needs to be dug up and processed - there are costs involved in mining and processing)

While we wait for the restart assessment, BKB is also drilling to further expand their 17.6M ounce resource estimate and bring it up to JORC compliance.

So that number could actually get bigger over the next few months...

Read more: BKB: Engineering company appointed for “rapid restart” of USA silver mine study as silver rapidly rises to record US$93/oz overnight.

Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML | OTC: RLMLF)

Anyone following the “USA’s rush to secure domestic critical minerals supply” investment theme will have seen the waves...

A fast and hard “US critical minerals” bull market kicked off around June last year...

(remember how fun that was)

Then fizzled out in November and December...

(we stayed in, expecting it to come back in 2026)

AND NOW looks like it's kicking back off again in the first two weeks of 2026... with the basket of ASX listed, USA based critical minerals stocks we follow all moving up.

Our USA Investment Resolution Minerals (🇦🇺: RML | 🇺🇸: RLMLF) has found itself in the middle of three major macro thematic bull markets.

1. USA critical minerals - specifically military metals antimony and tungsten...

(Antimony and tungsten are critical for defense industries. China controls global supplies of both. US has zero domestic supply of both)

1. ... plus gold.
2. ... and even some silver too...

The RML share price has popped up off its recent base in the last two days after the market appeared to like its latest reported samples showing 48.7% antimony and 890g/t silver:

(source)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

We are also eagerly awaiting the next batch of RML’s gold drilling results (which is what originally spiked up RML’s share price to its highest point in the above chart).

So RML’s gold results are due soon AND the US critical minerals theme looks to be back on the market menu.

RML’s project has a history of producing US critical minerals antimony and tungsten (and gold): (Source)

• During World War 1: RML’s project produced antimony.
• During World War 2: Antimony was produced again
• In the 1960’s: There was even more Antimony production
• And then in the 1950’s to 1980: Tungsten was produced at RML’s project

Every time there was a kinetic conflict, historically the US turned to RML’s ground for some sort of supply...

Read more: RML: Moving up again after US critical minerals theme re-emerges, releases 48.7% antimony and 890 g/t silver samples

Bloomberg - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reveals the DOJ has subpoenaed the central bank, this unprecedented legal clash could reshape American economic independence.

Bloomberg - The US dollar saw its sharpest drop in weeks following news that the DOJ subpoenaed the Federal Reserve, this event was rocking global markets.

Bloomberg - Gold was remaining steady near record highs as fresh US inflation data fuels expectations for deeper rate cuts, the bull run for bullion isn't slowing down just yet.

Reuters - India's gold and silver prices hit historic peaks with safe-haven demand and shifting interest rate bets fueling the metals' record-shattering rally in 2026.

AFR - Gold is surging toward $US7,000 as 1970s-style inflation and geopolitical chaos return, some experts believe this historic rally is only just beginning for the ultimate haven.

Visual Capitalist - Have a look at which nations sit on the world’s largest unmined gold treasures. See the 2025 rankings of underground wealth and the countries which could dominate future supply.

SprottMoney - Silver to $106 as its next target? Plus gold’s wild rally intensifies. SprottMoney’s 2026 price predictions and the "perfect storm" of factors driving precious metals to new heights. (a video of this is in the video section below)

Bloomberg - Silver is surging toward new heights as cooling inflation boosts rate-cut bets which is why the "white metal" is outperforming gold and heading for a major 2026 breakout.

Bloomberg - Gold and silver took a breather after a record-breaking surge, this modest retreat could be the ultimate "buy the dip" opportunity amongst continued global chaos.

AFR - Silver is outpacing gold as investors flood into bullion ETFs, the "white metal" is leaving gold in the dust. So just how high this rally could go?

FT - An FT stockpicking contest winner has surged to a 220 per cent return by betting exclusively on silver miners, as the metal's price tripled to over $71 per ounce and surpassed the price of oil for the first time since 1979.

AFR - Lithium has sailed past US$2,000 for the first time in two years driven by battery storage demand and supply shortages which are reigniting a comeback.

CnEVPost - CATL has secured a massive lithium supply deal with Ronbay to fuel its global battery dominance. This partnership might reshape the electric vehicle power struggle.

The WHITE HOUSE - President Trump has signed a proclamation to adjust tariffs on processed critical minerals and derivative products, utilising national security authorities to protect the domestic industrial base from foreign import surges.

This specifically mentions indium. Our Investment AW1 holds the biggest indium resource within the USA.

Bloomberg - The US is convening a critical summit on rare earths as the China-Japan trade war escalates. Washington is continuing on a path to try to break Beijing's grip on high-tech minerals.

FT - US allies are bracing for impact as Donald Trump’s aggressive 2026 tariff plan looms. So which global economies are most at risk from this massive protectionist shift?

Bloomberg - The Trump administration just secured a direct stake in Atalco, launching a historic federal intervention to seize control of the critical mineral supply chain from Chinese rivals.

FT - The Trump administration is exploring a plan to provide federal backing for critical mineral projects, with gallium mentioned here, a move designed to de-risk domestic mining and break the global dependence on Chinese supply chains.

Our Investments AW1 and PNN have both released updates on gallium exploration recently.

Bloomberg - President Trump has initiated a sweeping federal process to secure America's critical mineral supply chains following a comprehensive trade investigation into foreign dependencies.

Bloomberg - The United States is pressuring global allies to implement aggressive new restrictions on Chinese critical minerals to collectively help dismantle Beijing’s dominance.

Yahoo Finance - Copper prices are projected to enter a historic supercycle as a massive global supply shortfall and the green energy transition drive the red metal toward unprecedented heights.

WSJ - Amazon is seizing America's first new copper output in a decade to power its massive data center expansion, signaling a desperate scramble for critical AI infrastructure materials.

Bloomberg - Aluminum is nearing record highs and tin is extending its massive surge as global supply anxiety and geopolitical tensions threaten to paralyze key industrial manufacturing sectors.

Things are shaping up nicely for our Investment CAY to be getting into bauxite production next month with first shipment expected by mid year.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals announced at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPM26) that it has sold a Priority Review Voucher (PRV) for US$200 million, which is relevant to our Investment ILA.

The PRV was awarded to $15BN capped Jazz following the FDA approval of its drug Modeyso (dordaviprone) last year, which is a targeted therapy for a rare and aggressive type of brain cancer.

A PRV gains the holder the ability to “jump the queue” so to speak, shortening the FDA review process by many months to around 6 months and interestingly, they are transferable so can be dealt.

Which is what we saw Jazz do - to the tune of US$200M.

PRV’s are generally given to companies developing drugs deemed important, though may struggle to receive funding from traditional avenues otherwise.

So potentially a company that gains it, may see itself better off waiting those extra few months in the queue for approval and pocket the cash.

Which based on this amount, is clearly something smaller and developing companies would strongly consider, this is a significant amount and can help make plenty of progress, with no cap raise.

The purchaser of this voucher was not made public, but clearly someone was quite keen to get possession of it.

The US$200 million price tag shows a trend of rising prices for PRVs, with the Fierce Biotech article linking 2 recent examples, which sold last year for US$150M in February and US$175M in September.

What does this have to do with ILA?

Well a PRV is precisely what ILA is going after in the coming months.

So this news is of particular interest to our Investment ILA, which was recently given the green light to utilise the “Animal Rule” for its Galidesivir drug, which has good data on treating the Marburg virus.

We covered ILA gaining FDA approval to go down the “Animal Rule” route in a November deep dive article: ILA: Our Biotech Pick of the Year.

Currently ILA is awaiting further feedback from the FDA which will set how it will run the program, where as a part of this process it's also heading down a similar path to Jazz, so could also land itself a PRV.

So seeing the value of these increase from a base of US$100M or so back when we made ILA our 2025 biotech Pick Of The Year, to now have seen one hit double this (equivalent to ~A$300M) is exciting.

Especially with ILA’s market cap sitting at just a little over a third of this at ~$117M, with possibly most of this value attributed to the Galidesivir drug itself, which it acquired last year.

Advance Metals (ASX:AVM) - Further Ultra High Grade Antimony and Silver Results - 14 January 2026

Starting Strong: American Tungsten 2026

We listened to this one with American Tungsten CEO Ali Haji, because back in December American Tungsten made a $750k strategic investment of the total $4.295M VKA raised. This was the same raise we Invested in.

So with this webinar, we tuned in wondering if there would be any chat about our Investment VKA...

Turns out there was indeed a bit of interest in VKA:

~33:30 Ali was asked about the strategic investment into VKA.

Ali mentioned as they are developing their asset in Idaho and plan for building modular processing, that the Investment into VKA gives exposure with no human capital and possibility for feedstock down the track.

Ali also mentioned the VKA asset was a past producer with similar grades to them and that it keeps open options for them including a "roll-up" strategy in the future (eg M&A...).

~43:45 Ali was asked about how M&A in the space has changed compared to 12 months ago.

Ali mentioned that there wasn’t any interest in tungsten 12 months ago, now companies like VKA picking up assets shows interest (which to us suggests he thinks that VKA has moved early).

He thinks tungsten could start to see larger organisations that might not be tungsten focused show interest and that he believes that the tungsten space is only just heating up

All-In's 2026 Predictions (of particular note to us was this specific part where Chamath chose “A basket of critical metals” as his “best performing asset of 2026”)

SILVER ‘About to Go Violent’ - This Is Not a Normal Move: Michael Oliver

Silver to $106? Gold’s Wild Rally & the 2026 Outlook | Chris Vermeulen (Sprott Money)

Watch: Pete Hegseth, Elon Musk speak at Starbase - This is relevant for US defence and spending.

LKY’s strategic advisory group GreenMet had its leader Drew Horn on Fox and friends to discuss the Greenland situation and strategic importance

Supercharging A New FDA: Marty Makary on Science, Power & Patients

A word of caution...

While we aim to highlight developments in the small cap space, investing in early-stage and small cap companies - like those we cover - is inherently risky.

These companies often face funding challenges, regulatory hurdles, and market volatility. Announcements may reflect aspirations more than guaranteed outcomes.

Things can, and often do, change.

Just because a company has signed a deal, released drill results, or appointed a new director doesn’t mean success is assured.

Always assume delays, cost overruns, or results that don’t pan out.

We’re here to share insights, not offer personal financial advice - so please do your own research and speak with a licensed adviser before acting on anything mentioned.

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Bye for now.