A Quiet, but Green Week in the ASX

• Commentary: Quiet... but green market, we’ll take it. Global uncertainty, gold, silver. Health improvements and technology.
• Quick Takes: TG1, PFE, TTM, JBY, EMD, TTM
• This week in our Portfolios: JBY, NTI, ALA

It was another quiet-ish week across much of the small cap markets.

The smaller end of the market where we operate appears to be in a holding pattern of sorts.

And it looks like a positive holding pattern.

Things have been a bit “stand-offish” since the US election result a few weeks ago.

Stocks aren’t necessarily going down...

There is a LOT of green around.

But we have observed that liquidity and trading volumes have been down significantly compared to the weeks before the US election.

We’ll gladly take this low liquidity with stocks being green during the last few weeks instead of the low liquidity with stocks being deep red that we have seen for much of the last 2 years.

Low trading volumes but with the buyers actually overpowering sellers is a positive leading indicator for good times ahead.

Anyone who has been planning to sell over the last couple of years looks to have already left the building.

And there are a few people out there dipping their toes in, even while things are quiet.

We think this is another positive sign towards a strong 2025 for small cap stocks.

Donald Trump is getting sworn in on Jan 20th - in about 7 weeks time.

The low trading volumes we are seeing are probably small cap punters sitting on the sidelines until they see what he does in the first few weeks.

Gold and silver went down after a spike in optimism from the US election result four weeks ago.

Then bounced back up...

on global uncertainty fears as Biden approved US supplied missile attacks within Russian borders and then Russia firing a nuclear capable missile at Ukraine.

And then down again...

on Trump tweeting about new tariffs on Mexico and Canada? Or the Middle East ceasefire?

And then up again yesterday...

On central bank buying? on new Russian threats to deploy more advanced missiles? Inflation and US debt fears?

Or maybe it’s because of a variety of other macro factors that nobody can predict or explain.

Either way it feels like 2025 could be an uncertain year as the world adapts to the new US leadership and the geopolitical jockeying process runs its course.

The small end of the ASX appears to be waiting to see what the new US presidency with a mandate for change into a volatile global landscape will mean.

We expect global uncertainty going into 2025 and we’ve leveraged our portfolio to gold and silver markets.

This week we added James Bay Minerals (ASX:JBY) to our Portfolio.

JBY has a gold project in Nevada, USA, with a 1.18Moz gold and 7.6Moz silver resource.

The resource includes a high grade component of 796,200oz gold at 6.53g/t - open at depth and in all directions.

So there is plenty of exploration upside...

AND

It sits right next door to a large producing mine (and project infrastructure) currently being operated in a JV by $49BN Barrick and $76BN Newmont.

Yesterday JBY shareholders formally voted in the project acquisition and we now expect work to accelerate and newsflow to starting rolling in.

Read our full note on why we invested in JBY: JBY: New Portfolio Addition.

The same team that put together and manages our 2024 Small Cap Pick of the Year SS1 is behind JBY.

We think SS1 is only just getting started and it could be the biggest silver story of 2025 (the silver price even started a proper bull run yet).

And we are backing the same group to deliver with gold for JBY.

Our view is that gold and silver are going to be one of the key themes of 2025.

Gold and silver are a hedge against uncertain times, an “insurance policy” of sorts.

But what else is going to happen in 2025?

One thing that the world wants regardless of uncertainty is new innovation.

New technology to make peoples lives better.

And extend those lives through better health.

(2025 global uncertainty be damned, I still want to live to 130 and visit Mars with my AI assistant robot)

In the past year there have been a lot of interesting developments in the tech and biotech world.

The emergence of generative AI.

Space travel.

A weight loss drug (that actually works).

Advances in cancer cell therapy, self driving cars, robotics and sustainability.

Blockchain is back (Bitcoin is close to US$100,000).

Computer to brain interfaces.

Smart cities, 3D printing and a ring that can track your health.

The world is changing very, very fast.

50 years ago there was literally no Internet...

And 100 years ago the average life expectancy was just 45 years old.

Every industry has been disrupted by some form of technology and changed its fortunes over the years.

No matter what happens in the world, technological advancements will go on, and in the long run, the companies that develop these technologies will be rewarded for their efforts.

Not every company will make it, and not every development will succeed.

(Many will fail)

But those that do, can shape the future.

Here are some of the interesting and groundbreaking technologies that some of the companies in our Portfolio are developing.

Trivarix (ASX:TRI) - an AI that detects mental disorders through sleep.

We already track our sleep, step count, heart rate and physical health through technology.

Why can’t we track our mental health too?

TRI is developing an AI technology that helps detect mental health issues through a person’s sleep.

Health tracking in wearable technology has come a long way in the last five years with the FitBit, Apple Watch and now the Aura Ring.

Recently, TRI adapted its algorithm for use in wearable technology and that’s where we think screening and diagnostics is going in the long-run...

What we eventually want to see is a person’s Fitbit or Apple Watch to send them an alert that they may be experiencing a mental health episode and to take action or seek treatment.

Imagine a mental health warning in the morning mixed in with your overnight news alerts, emails and sleep score...

See our most recent TRI article on the wearables story here: TRI announces smartwatch and wearables screening for mental health issues.

So is your Fitbit telling you that you are experiencing a mental health issue?

Stroll on down to your local EMD “psychedelics for mental health” clinic and get some treatment...

Emyria (ASX:EMD) - Clinics using Psychedelics to treat mental health issues - now available to the general public.

EMD is doing this.

Right now.

The first private clinic in the world and it’s already dosing and treating patients.

Each year 1 in 4 people will experience a mental health issue of some kind.

Medication (like anti-depressants) is the current standard of care, but they don’t work for everyone.

While there have been lots of new advancements within the therapy space, there have been very limited advancements in the pharmaceutical space to treat mental health issues.

Assisted-therapies with Psychedelics like MDMA, psilocybin and ketamine are showing promise and Australia is leading the way.

Early last year the Australian regulator downscheduled these drugs for use in therapy.

(We still can’t believe Australia is the first country in the world to legalise psychedelics for mental health - go Australia!)

EMD has authorised prescriber status so it is able to run therapy sessions with patients on MDMA.

EMD is looking to roll out its services to psychiatric clinics all across the country in order to “scale up” its business.

EMD has a deal with Reach Wellness to provide therapy for up to 50 first responders and the company is in “advanced discussions” with other payers to secure an agreement whereby they subsidise the cost of the treatment.

EMD is leveraging Australia’s world-first legalisation to develop, refine and scale a clinic model and get a head start in ironing out expansion wrinkles in anticipation that other countries will soon allow these treatments.

Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Health Department and “Make America Healthy Again”, Robert F Kenndery Jr, has expressed support for psychedelics (source)

We recently increased our position in EMD in this week's placement at 3.5c a share where the company’s Chairman Greg Hutchinson came in personally for a cool $1M.

Hutchinson is well-known for his significant success as CEO of Sonic HealthPlus over the past 14 years. Sonic HealthPlus is part of Sonic Healthcare (ASX: SHL).

Sonic Healthcare re-rated from a share price of ~$12 20 years ago to a peak share price of $47 at the end of 2021 - it's currently a $13BN company.

Sonic HealthPlus is Australia’s leading provider of occupational healthcare and general medical services so Hutchinson is well versed in scaling up medical clinics.

EMD is aiming to scale its mental health care clinics across Australia. We can't think of many better people to help them with this goal than the Sonic Healthplus CEO that oversaw a multi-billion dollar clinic scale up.

Now with $1M personally invested in EMD we hope to see him apply his medical clinic roll up and scaling skills in full force at EMD.

Read our latest quick take on EMD’s capital raise here: EMD completes raise, Chairman invests $1M

What about physical health? What if I need to go to the hospital?

OneView (ASX:ONE) - making hospital stays better, saving nurses time, all with your phone

If you or a loved one have ever been to hospital you probably noticed how cruddy and dated the experience was.

Most of the technology is ancient and a lot of the processes feel inefficient.

Think of ONE’s tech as a single touch screen at your hospital bed where you can:

• Have virtual consultations with relevant medical specialists - local and from around the world,
• Control all aspects of your room (bed, lighting, temperature),
• Order food, watch movies, get a nurses attention (think airline business class screens),
• Interact with tailored rehab, education and training videos for YOUR health situation, and;
• Monitor your health outcomes - Doctors and nurses have better info on you.

Believe it or not, hospitals still use whiteboards, blackboards and paper folders to store and display patient records in hospitals all over the world.

ONE is looking to even further improve this with its “bring your own device” technology and digital dashboards.

Meal ordering, educational content, medical records, nurse checks, telehealth consults.

All online, all within the hospital system.

And now available on your very own device.

Increasing efficiency in hospital operations is important now more than ever given the well reported nursing shortages across the world.

ONE currently has a partnership agreement signed with the biggest hospital bed distributor in the US, the NYSE listed, US$17BN capped Baxter International Inc.

Baxter has up to ~75% of the US hospital bed market, meaning it could have at least half a million beds in its network.

ONE currently has 18,590 contracted hospital beds paying a yearly licence fee to use the ONE tech.

(ONE’s share price has re-rated from 6c to over 30c after growing from ~9,000 contracted beds three years ago to now 18,590 contracted beds today.)

A few weeks back ONE signed a two-year extension to its partnership with Baxter which is a signal of a strong relationship.

Next we are watching to see ONE announce some Baxter sourced deals for more hospital beds.

Read our latest ONE article: US$18BN Baxter extends US reseller deal with ONE, expands to Canada.

AML3D (ASX:AL3) - Building big complex stuff faster with metal 3D printing

Imagine if every major industry got their big metal parts made using 3D printers...

Sounds like science fiction, but it is becoming a reality.

AL3 has developed robotic tools to 3D print parts for some of the biggest industries in the world.

AL3’s 3D printed parts are faster, stronger, better than existing parts that are manufactured today.

The time it takes for a specialised part ordered under the old system is measured in months.

The time it takes for a specialised part made by AL3’s system is measured in just hours.

Last week AL3 raised $30M to further accelerate its expansion into the US market. We think its an inflection point for the company which now has the foundations and the cash to increase revenues by a step-change.

With expansion capital in the bank we are watching out for more new contracts to be announced by AL3.

See our latest note on AL3: US Navy Now Demanding 3D Printed Parts, Or Else...

WhiteHawk (ASX:WHK) - Supply chain cybersecurity for giant organisations

Most giant organisations treat cybersecurity seriously.

But these government departments, defence and Fortune 500 companies’ have sprawling supply chains.

These supply chains are their vulnerabilities.

Cyber attacks often happen through weak points in an organisation's supply chain.

(supply chain attacks were up 78% in 2019 according to Symantec).

WHK’s cybersecurity tech basically allows huge organisations (like government, defence, Fortune 500 companies) with those big sprawling supply chains to push cyber risk monitoring and mitigation technology across all of their suppliers.

WHK’s supply chain cybersecurity tools make it easier for giant organisations to evaluate their cyber security protocols and make improvements to protect against costly cyber attacks.

Giant organisations take a long time to procure new systems, so WHK’s share price has been languishing while the market waits for new contracts.

We think a long awaited material new contract could re-rate WHK off its current base.

Read our WHK investment memo: WHK Investment Memo

EchoIQ (ASX:EIQ) - an AI that detects heart diseases from ultrasound images.

Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the world.

And detecting the diseases EARLY is critical to preventing heart related deaths.

Currently heart disease is detected by a specialised doctor evaluating a grainy 2D ultrasound scan of a person’s heart.

EIQ has developed an AI technology that is trained on hundreds of thousands of ultrasound heart scans, to help cardiologists identify heart issues.

EIQ just got FDA clearance, its first deal with a major hospital network and recently hired a new gun CEO to commercialise this product in the US.

The company says that it is just months away from securing a reimbursement code for its treatment which provides a pathway to make money each time its product is used.

We see this as a big catalyst.

See our latest EIQ article here: EIQ signs first hospital deal just weeks after successful US FDA approval

Neurotech International (ASX:NTI) - a cannabis-derived oil that dramatically reduces autism symptoms.

What if a cannabinoid treatment could make autism symptoms “barely noticeable"...

(read the announcement, and our Quick Take)

Try telling a doctor in the 1950s that there could be a treatment from a special “genetic strain of weed” that dramatically improves the lives of children with autism (and by extension their families/carers).

...in addition to treating other severe paediatric neurological conditions.

They would say, “what are you smoking?”

And yet, today, our biotech Investment Neurotech International (ASX:NTI) is armed with not one, but three recent successful clinical trials.

All of which point to NTI’s cannabinoid based treatment being highly effective and safe for Autism Spectrum Disorder, and two rare neurological conditions (Rett Syndrome and PANDAS/PANS).

See our latest NTI article here: US FDA grants coveted Orphan Drug Designation for NTI’s Rett Syndrome Treatment

Arovella Therapeutics (ASX:ALA) - search and destroy cancer cells while leaving other cells unharmed

Until the advent of chemotherapy in the 1940s, treating cancer wasn’t really possible.

Chemotherapy is like using a flamethrower to light a candle...

The job gets done but it has destructive side effects on your candle holder, table, living room and possibly entire house.

Now there is a new technology that has emerged in the last ten years called cell therapy - where a patient’s own cells are modified and then re-injected to find, treat and kill the cancer cells only.

This is better, but can’t be scaled.

ALA is developing a technology that could potentially take the cells of another healthy person and inject them into a cancer patient to hunt and kill just the cancer cells.

This is what is known as an “off the shelf” cell therapy and is the next frontier of cancer treatment.

Just this week big pharma company Roche paid US$1.5BN for a Phase 1 cancer cell therapy platform that was also developing an off the shelf product.

They did this BEFORE the results of their Phase 1 trial were published.

ALA is looking to start its Phase 1 trial in the first half of next year, this could be a very big development if successful.

Read: Cell therapy company just acquired by Roche for US$1.5BN. ALA looks similar...

Inoviq (ASX:IIQ) - using our body’s cell communication system to identify and treat serious health issues.

An exosome is roughly 1,000 times smaller than a cell.

These tiny sacks carry messages between cells throughout the body.

Because they are so small, exosomes were only discovered in 1981 and there are limited in-market products that use exosomes as a treatment.

IIQ is developing a technology to identify cancer and neurological conditions like Alzheimer's Disease using exosomes.

It is also working on a technology to potentially treat cancers with exosomes as well.

For now though, the focus is on diagnostics - and we’re interested in what IIQ can achieve across breast cancer and ovarian cancer tests.

In the latest AGM presentation, IIQ says that a biomarker validation study is underway and analytical & clinical validation on its ovarian cancer screening product is expected to start before H12025.

Ovarian cancer is particularly deadly and lacks an approved screening test.

We think IIQ’s tech could be a game changer for diseases like ovarian cancer where screening leads to early treatment, which could in the long run help save many lives.

Read our IIQ Investment memo here: IIQ Investment Memo

So there is a quick round up of a few of the technology and biotech companies in our Portfolio.

Technology and innovation companies are interesting to follow (and fun to write about).

There are the usual risks when investing in these kinds of companies, if things go right there can be great returns, but things can and do go wrong like in any high-risk/high-return small cap stock.

What we wrote about this week

James Bay Minerals (ASX:JBY)

This week we announced the newest addition to our Portfolio.

James Bay Minerals (ASX:JBY), a gold developer in Nevada, USA.

With the gold price at near all time highs, gold producers are trading at record high share prices.

We think the next batch of gold companies to run will be the ones that are pre-production and closest to being developed with large existing resources.

Read: JBY: New Portfolio Addition

Neurotech International (ASX:NTI)

Our biotech Investment Neurotech International (ASX:NTI) received US FDA Orphan Drug Designation for its treatment for Rett Syndrome.

NTI has completed a successful Phase I/II clinical trial on Rett Syndrome, and released the positive results in May of this year.

Read: US FDA grants coveted Orphan Drug Designation for NTI’s Rett Syndrome Treatment

Arovella Therapeutics (ASX:ALA)

This week news broke that global pharma giant, the US$410BN Roche, is acquiring a small Phase 1 “cell therapy for cancer” company called Poseida Therapeutics...

... for US$1.5BN.

Our biotech Investment, the AUD $200M capped Arovella Therapeutics (ASX:ALA) is also a “cell therapy for cancer” company.

ALA is starting its Phase 1 trial in 2025...

Read: Cell therapy company just acquired by Roche for US$1.5BN. ALA looks similar...

Quick Takes

TG1 uncovers big high grade rock.

Technical issues halt PFE’s lithium well re-entry program

TTM kicks off 10,000m copper drill program

JBY’s rock chips point east, company surrounded by gold giants

EMD completes raise, Chairman invests $1M

More High-Grade Gold in Extensional areas at Dynasty Gold Project

Macro News - What we are reading & listening to

Biotech:

Trump picks Johns Hopkins researcher Marty Makary to lead the FDA (Endpoints News)

• Trump picked Marty Makary, a Covid critic, to lead the FDA, focusing on cutting red tape and improving health regulations.
• Makary has criticized health agencies' pandemic response and FDA vaccine policies, advocating for more transparency and less bureaucracy.

ASX-listed biotech PYC Therapeutics could land Alan Tribe back on the Rich List (AFR)

• Alan Tribe's net worth is set to exceed $700 million, driven by his stake in PYC Therapeutics, a biotech company nearing a $1 billion valuation.
• Tribe, a former IKEA franchise owner, has transformed PYC from a shell company to a promising biotech firm focused on RNA-based treatments for rare diseases.

AI Drug Discovery Startup Enveda Raises $130 Million (Bloomberg)

• Enveda raised $130M for AI-driven drug discovery, launching an eczema treatment trial.
• Backed by Kinnevik, it has 10 drug candidates in development.

Copper:

Vedanta Plans to Invest $2 Billion in Saudi Copper Projects (Bloomberg)

• Vedanta plans a $2 billion investment in Saudi Arabia to build copper-processing facilities, including a smelter, refinery, and rod mill, boosting the kingdom's mining ambitions.
• The project aligns with Saudi Arabia’s industrial growth strategy and Vedanta’s expansion in the Middle East, with operations expected to begin in 2026.

Gold:

NST-ASX: Northern Star chief expects Trump to send gold price running (AFR)

• Trump's return boosts gold demand as investors seek safety amid potential volatility.
• Strong gold prices are driving profits for Northern Star and other miners, with expectations for further increases.

Lithium:

Bolivia says China's CBC to invest $1 billion in lithium plants (Reuters)

• Bolivia and CBC, including CATL, sign a $1 billion agreement to build two lithium extraction plants in Uyuni salt flats.
• The plants aim to produce 35,000 metric tons of lithium per year, boosting Bolivia's lithium industry.

WA unveils $150m lithium rescue package (AFR)

• The Western Australian government has unveiled a $150 million rescue package offering interest-free loans to struggling lithium miners.
• The package aims to help miners sustain operations until commodity prices recover, with repayments starting in 2026.

Silver:

Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodities This Week (Silver)

• Silver demand continues to outstrip supply, driving a fourth straight year of shortages and boosting prices.
• The Silver Institute forecasts a significant supply deficit for 2024, marking the third-highest on record.

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