ION - Trump signs critical minerals recycling Executive Order

BREAKING:

US bans export of old batteries and other electronic waste... so they can recycle it and pull out the critical metals.

(source)

The news dropped literally a few hours ago and mainstream media just started reporting on it:

And it comes just ten days after Trump's other critical minerals move.

Last week, Trump signed an Executive Order forcing US military suppliers to prove "serious efforts" to source critical minerals domestically before they can get waivers to import them

(Read the full Executive Order here)

(We covered that one in detail here - and named Iondrive (ASX: ION) as a potential dark horse for "first into production".)

Today’s executive order directly relates to what our Investment ION does.

Applying its deep-euctectic solvent tech to recover critical minerals including heavy rare earths, from e-waste.

ION's US rare earths recycling business is the most advanced…

ION already has:

1. Independently verified tech:

ION's tech which takes biodegradable, non-toxic Deep Eutectic Solvents applies it to e-waste/old magnets and pulls critical minerals from the scrap.

Last month, ION announced testwork on commercial US e-waste which recovered ~93.5% dysprosium, 96.5% neodymium and 96.5% praseodymium. (source)

Dysprosium being one of the most important - a heavy rare earth, used in the magnets inside missiles, drones and fighter jets, and China controls close to 100% of the world's separated supply.

2. The feedstock - via a binding agreement:

ION has a binding agreement with Colt Recycling, one of the biggest e-waste processors in the US, handling ~40 million lbs of e-waste a year. (source)

Colt is also a member of the US Defense Industrial Base Consortium.

IF exports of recoverable material get restricted, e-waste processors like Colt will have fewer places to send their material - and more reason to have it processed onshore, by tech like ION's.

3. The site and non-dilutive funding:

Last month the Oklahoma Department of Commerce issued a letter of support worth ~US$5.2M in incentives - scaling to US$15M+ - for ION's first US rare earth recycling facility.

See our note on that deal here.

And remember the carve-out in last week's Executive Order: supply from projects supported by the Department of Commerce (and Energy, and War) is explicitly protected.

ION's US facility would be backed by exactly that kind of support.

We think today’s EO combined with last week’s has put together the ideal macro backdrop to get ION’s US rare earths facility funded (with more non-dilutive funding).

Hopefully enough for ION to make a Final Investment Decision on the Oklahoma facility

What's next for ION?

ION had a new updated presentation out earlier in the month - here is the key slide on what’s next and the plan ahead:

(check out the full presentation here)

Below are the key catalysts we want to see ION deliver:

1. US rare earths partnership (where ION has the most momentum right now)

ION has a binding agreement with Colt Recycling (one of the largest e-waste processors in the US) to potentially roll out its modular recycling technology across Colt's facilities.

ION’s shown it can recover rare earths from Colt’s feedstock.

And now it’s got support from the Oklahoma state government for a recycling facility in the state.

Next we want to see ION progress Front End Engineering Design (FEED) and move toward FID for its facility.

(source)

2. Pilot plant - nickel, lithium, cobalt and graphite from waste batteries

Separate to the proposed US facility, ION is also building a pilot plant right now for its battery recycling tech.

We think this will be a big inflection point for ION, because it takes ION’s tech out of the lab and into a pilot plant.

That plant is being funded largely by a ~A$3.9M non-dilutive grant from the Australian government, and ION expects it to be commissioned by Q4 2026. (source)

Getting tech out of the lab and into a running pilot plant is usually where these companies re-rate - because a working plant is something a financier can actually come and watch, and fund a bigger version of.

So we think the pilot plant being commissioned could trigger a re-rate in ION’s current valuation:

(source)

Of course there is no guarantee the pilot plant does cause a re-rate, we are only basing our observation off the examples from the image above.

3. ION’s mineral processing tech gets de-risked

Any news across the multiple mineral processing testworks ION is doing right now could trigger a re-rate in ION’s share price - especially if it’s in a material that the market is looking for exposure to.

As mentioned earlier ION is testing its tech on cobalt and nickel to begin with.

4. Application into new markets

ION is aiming to recover copper, gold, silver, osmium and rare earth elements from e-waste (Printed Circuit Boards).

Results from these tests could come at arbitrary times.

We could see the market re-rate ION if the results are positive.

Again - these are just potential re-rate catalysts - there’s no guarantee that - A) the company achieves them, and B) even if it does, the market may not care.