The Spotlight on Gold

• Commentary: More mentions this week... but why?
• Quick Takes: CAY, SLM, ONE, EXR
• This week in our Portfolios: EXR, SGQ, ONE

Another week, another gold all time high.

On Monday, gold hit ~US$2,950 per ounce.

...before coming off a couple of percent in the back end of the week.

Coincidentally around the same time that bitcoin started its nose dive around Feb 24th.

Bitcoin is sometimes seen as an electronic alternative to gold.

It is argued in the industry that a portion of funds that would generally be sitting in gold as a “store of wealth” are now sitting in bitcoin.

(bitcoin is often referred to as “digital gold”)

The bitcoin price is taking a dive after “the biggest crypto theft of all time” shook the entire crypto space last Friday:

(Source)

(Source)

Bitcoin had been trading around in a range of US $95k to US$105k since Trump was sworn in, but was trading as low as US $78k this week.

The outflows from bitcoin over the last few days may have spurred the gold price to take a hit too given they are seen as a generally similar (but different) asset class.

NOTE: We like the general concept of bitcoin, and similar to how we “average in” to physical gold and silver every month, have now added a small, non core addition of bitcoin every month too.

But is there a chance we could be seeing the start of a shift out of “digital gold” and into actual gold?

Here is the last ~3 months of gold versus bitcoin:

Last weekend we wrote about the sudden increase in mainstream media talk about gold.

Specifically, how odd it is that US President Trump, Elon Musk and US Senator Rand Paul were suddenly talking about gold.

And the reported sharp increase in physical gold inflows into US borders from overseas.

Our question was, why were the highest profile people in the world suddenly talking about gold?

It’s anyone's guess, but it appears to us to be a coordinated effort to bring gold to the public's attention on such an extraordinary scale that surely has some end game in mind.

Whatever it is, for now, the fact is that hundreds of millions of people who probably have never thought about gold or gold reserves...

are suddenly thinking about gold.

You can read our full article on it here: All Eyes on Gold This Week

The mainstream attention on gold continued this week.

A few hours ago, Joe Rogan released an interview with Elon Musk and the FIRST thing they talked about was the “missing gold at Fort Knox” thing. (watch it here)

Albeit it was a brief mention, it was at the very start of the interview.

The key point we are making here is that it doesn't get more mainstream than Joe Rogan in 2025.

(They talked about gold again later at around 55 minutes.)

And the more people that hear and then think about gold, the better it is for our favourite macro theme.

Gold was also the focus of a 1 hour 20 minute talk with Tucker Carlson and Investment Researcher Luke Gromen released on Tuesday - its up to 3.9M views:

(Source)

Tucker Carlson is a former US television host and well-known conservative political commentator who has amassed ~16M followers on X.

Again, our question is - why has gold suddenly become a talking point in the mainstream in the last 2 weeks?

And this isn’t just a soundbite from Trump or Musk - it's an hour and 20 minute deep dive on gold.

It’s a great macro perspective on gold's place in the global economy - it's a great listen.

(Especially if you are a gold bull like us - disclaimer... the interview is very bullish on gold).

Anyone who knows anything about investment media coverage would know that even 5,000 or 10,000 viewers on a piece of finance/investment content is actually really good.

That Tucker Carlson interview in just a few days has over 3.9m views on X (Twitter) and ~700k views on YouTube....

So gold really is starting to go mainstream but we still can't say with any certainty why...

As we said when we first noted last week, let’s see if gold keeps getting mentioned over the coming weeks.

What does this mean for gold and silver stocks?

Media coverage aside, a gold rally has real impacts on the markets...

One thing we have been banging on about for almost a year now is the wave of M&A we expected to see from the gold majors.

Our view was that as the majors make a ton of cash while gold prices are high, they would first consolidate and get even bigger.

AND then look further down at the mid/small caps for takeover targets.

Here is the order of events we said we expected to see as the gold price continues rising:

• Majors with producing assets start to make record profits.
• Majors then look to do M&A deals (first between each other then)
• Eventually M&A begins at the small/mid cap space.

The first box is well and truly ticked... (majors making a ton of cash )

Looking at some of the major ASX listed producers, they all printed record amounts of cash in their most recent quarterlies:

(EBITDA for some of these names were up by 100’s of % compared to previous corresponding periods).

The second is seemingly being ticked as well... (consolidation amongst the bigger names )

First was that massive $26.2BN Newmont deal with Newcrest to create the world’s biggest gold miner.

Then we saw (relatively) smaller majors like Westgold get its ~$2.4BN deal done with Karora Resources.

$3BN Ramelius went on an on-market buying spree of Spartan Resources...

Then this week, we saw Canadian Equinox Gold and Calibre Gold announce a A$2.8BN deal.

Now we are seeing it slowly trickle down into the junior end... (mid/small caps become targets OR do their own M&A)

The $168M Astral Resources deal with junior Maximus went unconditional this week.

~$490M Black Cat announced a deal to acquire an $85M gold mill from Westgold.

AND we saw $24BN AngloGold announce a ~$100M deal for Matsa Resources...

We think that these type deals all across the ASX gold space will become more and more commonplace as long as the gold price stays strong, and the majors keep throwing off giant amounts of cash.

For most of 2024 the deals were being done at the $500M-$1BN+ area.

But very late in 2024 and early into 2025, we are noticing more and more deals pop up in the sub $250M market cap list of gold companies.

Approaching the part of the market where we have most of our precious metals Investments.

Most of what we have written about today is gold focused, but we think silver is inadvertently related because gold and silver prices generally move in lock-step.

Here are our current gold & silver Investments - all with major catalysts coming up over the coming weeks/months.

Check out our Gold & Silver E-Book here which is a detailed overview of our take on the state of play in precious metals markets right now:

Download the ebook

What we wrote about this week 🧬 🦉 🏹

Elixir Energy (ASX:EXR)

A flow test starts tomorrow.

A positive result could light up this whole gas region for takeovers - which is already full of big names like Santos and Shell.

We increased our position in Elixir Energy (ASX:EXR) ahead of its regional peer Omega Oil & Gas’ flow test that is now set to begin tomorrow.

Any good news from that flow test will be good news for EXR and the Taroom Trough as a whole.

Omega’s share price has tripled in the lead up to this flow test.

Read our take from earlier in the week below.

Read: ⛏️ EXR’s bigger neighbour Omega set to flow test any day now

St George Mining (ASX:SGQ)

It took a little longer than we thought it would... but the deal is now done.

St George Mining (ASX:SGQ) now owns an advanced stage Brazilian niobium and REE asset.

Settlement was completed at 2c per share - this was the share price that SGQ just raised $20M, including an $8M cornerstone investment from Xinhai Group - a global mining services provider.

SGQ is currently trading at 1.9c per share.

SGQ’s advanced stage niobium and rare earths asset is right next door to the world’s biggest niobium mine owned by CBMM.

CBMM is one of the biggest private mining companies in Brazil, earning billions in revenues each year from this one mine alone.

CBMM is responsible for 80% of the world’s niobium supply.

(Way back in 2011, Asian consortiums collectively paid US$3.75BN for 30% equity in CBMM, valuing the private company at US$12.5BN... we wonder what it is worth now in 2025...)

SGQ is the only company on the ASX with an advanced stage niobium project close to existing infrastructure...

Read: ⛏️ SGQ next door to multi-billion dollar niobium producer - here’s what to expect next

Oneview Healthcare (ASX:ONE)

The results are in.

Sales up, revenues up.

Share price moving up...

Is an inflection point coming for our health technology Investment OneView Healthcare (ASX:ONE)?

This week ONE released its Preliminary final report for 2024. You can read our take on it below.

Read: 💻 ONE: Results are in - Share price is up.

Quick Takes 🗣️

CAY research note values project at up to A$1.07BN

SLM raises $4.5M

CAY project update - DFS due in Q3-2025

ONE - a record pipeline of sales opportunities going into 2025

ONE strengthening its partnership with Baxter International

EXR - Share Purchase Plan timetable announced

Macro News - What we are reading & listening to 📰

Defence:

How Europe must respond as Trump and Putin smash the post-war order (The Economist)

• Europe's security is at risk as Trump distances the US and rehabilitates Russia.
• Urgent rearmament needed with higher defence spending and less reliance on America.

German election: Friedrich Merz in talks to rush through German defence funding (AFR)

• Germany plans up to €200bn defence boost as Merz pushes for quick approval before the new parliament sits.
• Urgency driven by Trump’s Ukraine push and EU scramble to strengthen security amid Russian aggression.

Canagold unveils antimony resource for New Polaris project in British Columbia (Mining.com)

• Canagold unveils first antimony resource at New Polaris, adding ~5,630t indicated and 1,195t inferred.
• New Polaris is now Western Canada’s highest-grade gold-antimony project with 1.1Moz gold indicated.

Battery Metals:

DR Congo stops cobalt exports in attempt to halt sliding prices (FT)

• DR Congo halts cobalt exports for four months to stabilize century-low prices.
• Indonesia is set to benefit as cobalt supply tightens.

Gold:

Equinox Gold to buy Calibre for $1.8B (Mining.com)

• Equinox buys Calibre for C$2.6B, forming Canada’s #2 gold producer with 1.2Moz annual output.
• Combined nine-mine portfolio spans five countries.

Bitcoin Slides Below $90,000 as Crypto Selloff Gathers Steam - Bloomberg

• Bitcoin plunges 8.5% to $86,805, hitting its lowest level since mid-Nov amid risk-off sentiment and Trump’s tariffs.
• Over $950M exits Bitcoin ETFs in Feb; Bybit hack and memecoin scandals worsen crypto market turmoil.

Nickel:

Indonesia's Jan-Oct nickel ore imports surge by 50 times from year ago (Mining.com)

• Indonesia’s nickel ore imports surged to 9.3Mt in 2024, driven by smelter demand.
• Imports from Philippines, China totaled $406M, up from $7.1M last year.

USA Battery Metals:

Ukraine agrees minerals deal with US (FT)

• Ukraine and the US agree on a mineral development deal, improving relations, though without explicit security guarantees.
• Final agreement drops the US demand for $500bn in potential revenue and establishes a joint investment fund.

What we are watching:

The case against the Gold Standard | Jennifer Burns and Lex Fridman

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