More Market Turmoil: What’s America’s Endgame?

More market chaos, what is the USA’s end game? Policy flip flops? A Mar-a-Lago accord? History repeats

Read our Saturday Weekender note here.

Our ‘Quick Takes’ on news from our Investments

• Drilling is getting closer for SLM on the first of its four copper projects in Peru (this quarter) - they plan to drill all four projects between now and Q1-2026. Lots of shots on goal, nice. SLM released an updated investor presentation earlier in the week
• SLM then identified more high grade copper mineralisation in channel samples at its Cinco Project in Peru. Another solid piece of data that could point to a significant copper porphyry system in one of the world's most productive copper regions (Peru). We noticed SLM putting in applications to pick up more ground right next to +$100BN capped Southern Copper's Toquepala mine too....
• Tranche 2 of SLM’s recent $4.5M capital raise was also completed at the end of the week, bringing in just over $2.6M this time. New shares were issued at 8.5c, plus 1 for 2 unlisted options exercisable at 14.875c. All eyes on SLM drilling now... an ‘Ausquest style’ discovery and re-rate would be welcome...
• A Smackover lithium project was selected as one of the first critical mineral production projects to be advanced under Trump’s Executive Order 14241. The Smackover is shaping up to be America’s answer to their lithium supply chain problem... and PFE is ‘smack” bang in the middle of the “Smack” over... (sorry).
• ~68% growth in receipts and ~180% more than last quarter... On Thursday, ONE released its Q1 2025 cash flow report. It was a strong start to the year and a big quarter for ONE in terms of receipts - €4.2M ($7.5M) which helped reduce net cash outflows to €1.6M ($2.85M)... ONE finished the quarter with $21M (€12.2) cash on hand. C’mon Baxter, let’s go.
• Namibia is one of the hottest spots for new offshore oil discoveries...We saw a post on LinkedIn which has alluded to yet another one - a potential new oil/gas discovery made in offshore Namibia. Good news for our microcap Investment GGE which has just picked up an option to acquire a project offshore in Namibia.

And a sprinkle of the latest quarterly cash balances:

• GAL had $10.7M cash at 31 March 2025
• ONE had €12.2M cash at 31 March 2025
• PUR had $1M cash at 31 March 2025

Deep dive notes we wrote this week

Why did the JBY share price run this week on no news?

Gold has been inescapable in the media of late, fed by global tariff wars, doubts about US reserve currency status and because gold has been a safe haven asset for thousands of years.

The gold price is currently sitting at ~US$3,320/ounce. It’s finally taken a healthy little breather, after running up over 30% since the start of the year.

Some pundits are predicting a gold price as high as US$5,000/oz...

Our Investment, the $64M capped James Bay Minerals (ASX:JBY), has a 1.4M ounce gold JORC resource in Nevada USA.

Why has the JBY share price been running on no news over the last week?

Probably due to the gold price...

Plus we expect JBY to start expansion drilling to start any day now....

Here is why we think JBY is running on no news:

Read more: ⛏️ How high will the gold price go? How big is JBY’s USA gold resource?

Also, The latest presentation from JBY’s Executive Director Matt Hayes tells the JBY story really well in a ‘speed dating’ style of under 15 minutes.

Watch it here to find out the answers to all these burning questions about JBY:

• How similar is JBY’s asset to the giant Barrick / Newmont mine next door?
• Just how cheap is gold production in the USA?
• What kind of grades can be profitably mined in the US?... Western Australian gold investors might be shocked...
• Can Uber Eats be ordered to site? (is it close to civilisation?)
• Plus a crude joke that we can’t repeat here... you’ll have to watch.

(Watch it here)

Finally, are institutional investors waking up to the “misunderstood” opportunity in Nevada? JBY was mentioned in Livewires’ Buy Hold Sell: With gold at $5000, where are the best opportunities?. Hint: it was a BUY for this fund manager.

Macro News - What we are reading & listening to 📰

Gold:

We just saw this come out from Samso on one of our favourite Investments KAU:

(Read Samso’s Report here)

In other news across the gold market:

Lumina Gold Announces Acquisition by CMOC for C$581 Million (PR Newswire)

What does this mean for TTM? M&A activity picking up in Ecuador

US Imposes Tariffs Up to 3,521% on Southeast Asia Solar Imports (Bloomberg)

What does this mean for SS1? The 3,521% increase on solar imports from four Southeast Asian Countries is a boost to domestic solar manufacturing.

One of the key components to the manufacturing process of solar panels is “silver paste”.

SS1 has made a $60M application for US government tax credit towards a Silver Paste Production Facility and with these new tariffs it moves in favour of government support.

(The application was made in June last year and is still pending... probably a bit of backlog to go through with the administration change).

Trump to fast-track permitting for 10 mining projects across US (Reuters)

What does this mean for SS1? Trump recently announced fast track permitting to 10 mining projects in the US and included was the gold-silver-antimony project from Perpetua Resources.

This move by Trump shows that he is willing to support domestic advanced stage mining projects that already have support by the Department of Defence and that can produce critical minerals like antimony.

SS1 also has a gold-silver-antimony project in Nevada and has made applications to the US DoD for project support.

Silver:

High-Powered Solar Cells Are Poised to Replace Batteries (Bloomberg)

US Imposes Tariffs Up to 3,521% on Asian Solar Imports (Bloomberg)

Defence:

Poland Defense Giant PGZ Lags Behind Rivals Despite Higher State Arms Spend (Bloomberg)

Good insights on struggles to ramp up defence industrial base.

Geopolitics:

China warns countries against making trade deals with the US unfavorable to Beijing (MSN)

Zuckerberg, Dimon Are Among Top Sellers Ahead of Tariff Stock Rout (Bloomberg)

Energy:

Latest Namibia exploration well hits hydrocarbons (Upstream)

What does this mean for GGE? Cape Town-based independent Rhino Resources has hit hydrocarbons with its latest exploration well offshore Namibia, according to multiple sources.

Peter Thiel doubles down on patriotism in the Trump era (The Economist)

What does this mean for GUE? In mid-April, Founders Fund, led by Thiel, invested $50m in General Matter, a startup aiming to privately enrich uranium in America and develop technology for advanced nuclear reactors, with Thiel also joining its board.

Battery Metals:

Election 2025: ‘Minerals for mates’: Anthony Albanese digs in on exports (The Australian)

‘Minerals for mates’: Albanese digs in on exports:

Lithium:

Smackover Lithium’s South West Arkansas Project Receives Special Designation as a Priority Transparency Critical Mineral Project From the Trump Administration (Standard Lithium)

What does this mean for PFE? Standard Lithium’s Smackover project is one of the very first projects to be designated as a “Priority” under Trump’s executive order to increase US-based mineral production.

This news highlights the importance of the region to the US agenda and the importance of a domestic lithium supply chain.

PFE is the only ASX listed junior in the Smackover region and has built a 26,000+ acre land position next to Standard Lithium, Albemarle, Equinor and Exxon.

As the Smackover Region becomes more viable, it increases the look through value of PFE’s land package in the region for takeover by one of its larger neighbours.

Rare Earths:

China’s rare earths controls prompt fears of auto shortages and shutdowns (FT)

Other content we took a look at...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down the recent selloff in the bond market, rejecting speculation that foreign nations were dumping their holdings of US Treasuries, while flagging that his department has tools to address dislocation if needed.

Gold extended a blistering rally to rise above $3,500 an ounce for the first time, as concern that President Donald Trump could fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell triggered a flight from US stocks, bonds and the dollar.

Strategic Shifts and Market Lessons: Navigating the Future of Lithium Supply - Joe Lowry

The snippet: Despite the fact that Australia is critical to the long term future of lithium supply, the retail investor base "Down Under" always seems fixated on whatever is in fashion.

Buy low, sell high doesn't seem to resonate with the Hot Copper crowd most of whom seem to do the opposite.

Lithium will rise again within 24 months. More than likely all the current lithium haters that bought in 2022 and sold in 2024 will pile in at the next top. Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Why CATL's Five-Minute EV Charging Could Be a Gamechanger

The snippet: A 5-minute charge for a 520km range could be a breakthrough for EVs, making them as convenient as petrol cars. If scalable, it would reshape both consumer and commercial transport.

WATCH IT HERE - An Unfiltered Conversation with Mr Lithium

• Lithium prices probably going to remain flat at least until the end of the year
• US domestic lithium supply is completely dependent on how fast Exxon et al. can get the Smackover Region cranking
• BYD is responsible for CATL 50% of the lithium demand. But as the volume of the market matures these companies can’t just rely on small lepidolite mines to control the price.
• Always back Chinese lithium over lithium in the West, it’s taken them decades to get where they are and the West is incredibly behind. The biggest blockers are (1) permitting and (2) financing. To get more lithium mines up
• “Where the Chinese will fund a mediocre lithium project the West will not”. (This is probably the key difference between the two and why China will always win on lithium supply.
• Also China plays games to reduce confidence in forecast lithium demand in order to discourage investment in more lithium supply (For example, CATL promoting its “sodium ion batteries”, they were way behind, but it shook the confidence in investors of large lithium projects to think that CATL had a lithium-less battery out there)

$4,500/oz gold. An update with gold mining CEO Jeremy Gray

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Bye for now.