All Eyes on Gold this Week

• Commentary: Gold in the mainstream last 72 hours - but why?
• Quick Takes: 88E, SS1, JBY, SGQ, TTM, SLM, ONE
• This week in our Portfolios: KAU, ION, L1M

“Fort Knox” is widely known in the US as a fortress which guards the country’s largest repository of physical gold.

So what does Fort Knox have to do with small cap markets?

We have taken a bullish view on gold and silver over the last couple of years.

(we shared what we have learned in our gold and silver ebook - get it here)

Gold hit another NEW all time high this week.

And silver is up ~12.6% this year.

When a commodity “goes mainstream” it suddenly “appears on the radar” of exponentially more people... globally.

(making it easier for ASX juniors to attract attention... and capital)

Over the last 72 hours, Elon Musk (~218M followers), Donald Trump (~101M followers) and US Senator Rand Paul have all been tweeting and on video talking about gold...

Specifically calling for an audit to confirm that US physical gold reserves reported to be stored at Fort Knox are in fact actually there... or not.

It doesn’t get more “mainstream” than the sitting US president and the richest (and arguably most famous) man in the world mentioning our favourite yellow metal.

Multiple times.

“Stolen gold” conspiracy theory aside - our question is why are the highest profile people in the world suddenly talking about gold?

It’s anyone's guess, but what appears to us to be a co-ordinated effort to bring US gold inventories to the public's attention on such an extraordinary scale surely has some end game in mind.

Whatever it is, for now the key fact is that hundreds of millions of people who probably never think about gold or gold reserves... are suddenly thinking about gold.

Specifically Musk, Trump and US Senator Rand Paul are talking about checking if the ~5,000 tonnes (~147.3 million ounces) of physical gold that is "supposedly" stored in Fort Knox is actually there... (Source)

Donald Trump ~24 hours ago:

Fort Knox, that's where the gold is kept, we're going to open up the doors. I'm going to see if we have gold there. We want to find out did anybody steal the gold in Fort Knox.

(Watch the video)

And again here yesterday: "We're going to go to Fort Knox, the fabled Fort Knox, to make sure the gold is there. If the gold isn't there, we're going to be very upset."

(Watch the video)

Elon Musk has been tweeting multiple times to his 220M followers about the US gold inventories at Fort Knox too...

So has the gold been stolen from Fort Knox?

To us, that’s not the point.

We are more interested in why Trump and Musk are suddenly pushing the concept and importance of US physical gold reserves into the broader public's attention.

“Stolen gold at Fort Knox” is certainly a clever and interesting way to grab peoples attention and get them thinking about the importance of their countries gold reserves.

(drawing attention to important issues using sharable internet soundbites is a Trump specialty)

Rarely (but occasionally) we indulge ourselves by going down a Twitter (X) or Youtube “tin foil hat” rabbit hole on precious metals conspiracy theories.

It’s a bit of fun, the deeper you go the wilder the conspiracy theories get.

Wild conspiracy theories can make for some entertaining reading, but generally aren’t productive time spent when trying to form a view on how to position a small cap portfolio.

But it’s different when the audience is hundreds of millions of people and it's the US president saying it.

Trump and Musk are saying they want to see if the physical gold is actually there at Fort Knox for themselves.

And it looks like US Senator Rand Paul has now lodged the official request to make the inspection at Fort Knox:

(Source)

So there will likely be more attention on gold to follow in the coming weeks...

And all sorts of mainstream media is now covering it too:

You know you have gone “full mainstream” to even the non-financial markets masses when news.com.au is writing about gold to their audience:

(Source)

So whether the “Missing gold at Fort Knox” story has any credibility or not isn’t the point, the fact here is the US president and his advisors are directing public attention to US gold reserves...

We can only speculate on the reason why... and for what this foundation is being laid for in the coming months.

Whatever the underlying reason for pushing the “Stolen gold at Fort Knox” story, global attention should be on gold over the coming weeks if the “gold mentions” continue like they have over the last 72 hours..

This news comes as gold approaches the US$3,000 an ounce mark and is up nearly 60% over the last 18 months.

“Missing gold” conspiracy theories are nothing new.

A couple of years ago an Australian senator grilled the Reserve Bank of Australia about Australia’s physical gold reserves being stored at the Bank of England vault

Specifically pressing on whether the BoE had melted down and possibly replaced Australia’s gold OR lent it out without permission.

According to the RBA website, 99.9% of its physical gold reserves are stored at the Bank of England vault:

Here are the questions that were lobbed at the RBA:

(Watch the video)

The missing gold at Fort Knox story is not the only interesting thing that happened in gold this week...

Over the last week, it was reported that billions of $ of physical gold is being flown across the Atlantic from London to New York on commercial flights:

Basically, spiking physical gold demand in the US has created an “arbitrage” where traders will buy gold in London and sell it in the US, where prices are slightly higher.

Making about US$50 per ounce on the trade.

While the traders can execute the trades with a click of a button, the gold has to be physically moved from the vault in the Bank of England and flown across to New York.

We think that the gold macro theme is reaching a mainstream “critical mass”.

The big question is whether this massive amount of attention on gold will translate into gains for listed gold mining companies... and subsequent gold juniors.

We think that it eventually will...

(We have collated what we have learned about gold and silver, plus the 6 ASX gold and silver stocks we are Invested into this ebook - click here to download)

What we wrote about this week 🧬 🦉 🏹

Kaiser Reef (ASX:KAU)

Our gold PRODUCING Investment Kaiser Reef (ASX:KAU) is now 20m into the never before mined, high grade parts of its A1 gold mine.

KAU’s latest announcement details some promising signs coming out of the depths of one of Victoria’s premiere historical gold mines.

4,700g/t gold in a grab sample...

8.7g/t gold during stoping...

Infrastructure works are taking place too - and director performance incentives are aligned to make sure all of the pieces click into place for KAU.

The blue sky upside for KAU is if they find one (or multiple) new high grade gold reefs that they can quickly mine, process and sell into record gold prices.

(Did we mention, the gold price is rocketing too?)

Read: ⛏️ KAU - mining the Nova zone

Iondrive (ASX:ION)

“Urban mining” is a way for countries to secure critical metals supply from within their own borders...

By extracting critical metals from old, discarded electronic products, like batteries, mobile phones, TVs etc. that would otherwise be headed for the rubbish tip or landfill.

We think “Urban mining” is one of the next big investment thematics as the battle for resources intensifies globally and new mines take years to find and develop.

IonDrive (ASX:ION) owns a proprietary technology that delivers cleaner, greener and cheaper recycling than other methods.

ION is starting by extracting critical metals from old Electric Vehicle batteries.

ION has already proven its battery recycling technology at lab scale.

The next step is to build a pilot plant to prove it can be scaled up - expected this year.

This week ION released early stage economics showing a post tax NPV of $249M.

Which we think compares pretty favourably to ION’s current market cap...

Read: ⛏️ ION: Tech to extract critical minerals from old electronic products

Lightning Minerals (ASX:L1M)

Drilling has started.

Are we just a few weeks away from a new discovery by a fledgling micro cap stock that re-rates the company potentially by hundreds of percent?

Our micro cap exploration Investment Lightning Minerals (ASX:L1M) is drilling now in Brazil’s “Lithium Valley”.

We should know if we have a brand new lithium discovery in the coming weeks.

This region is home to multiple giant lithium deposits that are valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

L1M has already confirmed 4.04% lithium from outcopping pegmatites...

Consider the dice rolled...

Read: ⛏️ Microcap L1M going for a new discovery... up the road from billion dollar producers

Quick Takes 🗣️

88E signs ~$60M farm-out deal in Alaska, USA

SS1 announces board restructure

JBY announces a board transition

SGQ Appoints Niobium Engineering Expert

TTM Releases Additional Metallurgical Testwork for their Dynasty Project

SLM’s Chocolate project has four targets now

ONE strengthening its partnership with Baxter International

Macro News - What we are reading & listening to 📰

Defence:

A Little-Known Metal Spikes as China-US Trade Showdown Hits Home (Bloomberg)

• Bismuth jumps 38% to $8.25/lb after China restricts exports in response to US tariffs.
• China, 80% of supply, curbs exports, sparking hoarding and price surge.

Gold:

Gold Market Ructions Drive Singapore Exports to the US (Bloomberg)

• Singapore’s gold exports to US jump 27% in January to 11 tons, highest since March 2022.
• US bullion premiums widen, pulling global shipments amid tariff concerns.

Gold Revaluation Risks ‘Messy’ Outcome for Fed, Wrightson Says (Bloomberg)

• Revaluing US gold reserves to market price could boost collateral to ~$750B but clash with Fed’s balance-sheet reduction.
• Move seen as unlikely, with minimal benefits and potential for fiscal, monetary, and PR complications.

Trump Says He Will Check Amount of Gold Stored at Fort Knox - Bloomberg

• Trump vows Fort Knox gold audit, amid speculation over revaluing US reserves for cash.
• Revaluation idea gains Wall Street buzz, but lacks serious consideration from top advisers.

Gold Pares Gains as Bessent Plays Down Revaluing US Reserves (Bloomberg)

• Gold hits record before paring gains, as US Treasury Secretary dismisses revaluation talk.
• Profit-taking follows Bessent’s comments, but underlying support for gold remains strong.

Nickel:

China-Backed $3 Billion Indonesia Nickel Smelter Risks Shutdown (Bloomberg)

• Indonesia’s PT Gunbuster Nickel slashes production, nears shutdown after parent company Delong’s collapse.
• Nickel prices plummet nearly 50% since 2022, tight ore supply and competition pressure smelters.

Rare Earths:

Trump Wants Ukraine’s Minerals, But What Does It Actually Have? (Bloomberg)

• Trump targets Ukraine’s minerals for military support deal, eyeing rare earths, lithium, graphite, and titanium.
• Ukraine claims $10T in mineral deposits, but lacks modern assessments and viable rare earth reserves.

Uranium:

America’s plan to resurrect nuclear power (Freethink)

• Achieving 100% clean electricity by 2035 relies on renewables backed by a recent surge in nuclear power.
• New policies and incentives, like the Inflation Reduction Act, aim to cut nuclear costs and speed up construction.

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Have a great weekend,

Next Investors