Gabon election complete, is progress on major projects next?

Published 15-APR-2025 15:19 P.M.

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Gabon's recent presidential election marks a significant milestone for the country's political stability, and we hope paves the way for our green iron ore Investment Genmin (ASX: GEN) to thrive in a more stable political environment.

Here are the key takeaways on the election outcome in Gabon:

Presidential election held on April 12, 2025, four months ahead of schedule
Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema elected with over 90% of the vote
High voter turnout of more than 70%
New constitution implemented, including term limits and anti-corruption measures

We see these outcomes of the election as reducing political risk for GEN in the Central African country of Gabon, as it looks to lock in financing for the construction of its project.

GEN’s has previously hosted the now President of Gabon on site - where he declared:

“We are investing in concrete projects that will improve the quality of life of our fellow citizens and strengthen the regional economy... the Baniaka mine is an essential lever for job creation and sustainable development in our region.”

With a reduction in political risk, we want to see GEN now kick on and secure financing.

While our Investment has not quite delivered for us yet, we are increasingly confident that it is at an important inflection point along the Lassonde Curve:

These inflection points are where investors can realise the most value - assuming the company is able to progress to the next stage and actually enter construction.

Risks can always materialise.

But we take comfort knowing that GEN now has:

A mining convention
4 MoUs with major Chinese steel manufacturers
All key infrastructure agreements in place
And now: reduced political risk

All key pillars of what we hope is a sustained re-rate as GEN finalises financing and enters the construction phase.

We note that, GEN previously announced two weeks ago said that it has retained London based Oval Advisory as independent advisor to try and tap into other capital markets for funding.

Read our latest note on GEN below:

GEN: Mining Convention signed. Project financing next

Here’s how we see GEN’s progress towards mine construction so far:

What’s next for GEN?

Project financing update (US$200M CAPEX financing)

We want to see GEN show a pathway to getting its project financed and into construction.

Milestones

🔲 Confirm funding strategy

🔲 Secure debt financing

🔲 Secure equity financing

🔲 Secure binding offtake agreements

🔲 Secure prepayments for offtake or other strategic capital partners.

Convert offtake MoU’s into binding agreements

In the near term we are looking for GEN to make progress across its offtake MoUs.

With 4 non-binding MoUs for offtake already secured, we think GEN will be looking to make these offtakes binding and in doing so, firm up the financing picture.

We expect there would be some competitive tension around GEN’s premium product - and things could move quickly once any of these 4 MoUs are converted into a binding agreement.