$0.019
Opened: 05-Dec-2023
Shares Held at Open: 31,050,000
What does CND do?
Condor Energy (ASX: CND) - formerly Global Oil and Gas, holds an 80% interest in an offshore oil & gas exploration project in Peru.
What is the macro theme?
Oil and gas demand continues to increase with oil prices trading near decade highs, whereas investment in new supply continues to fall below record lows year on year.
Underinvestment in new exploration means the world is heading towards a supply/demand shortfall in the medium term.
Our Big Bet for CND
GLV defines a multi-billion barrel prospective resource and sees its market cap re-rate by 20x prior to drilling
Why did we invest in CND?
Connection to IVZ
IVZ’s Managing Director Scott Macmillan has agreed to join the CND board. We have had success backing Scott before - our Initial Entry Price for IVZ was ~3.5c, and the company has traded as high as ~41c per share.
We are Investing in CND at a similar stage to when we first Invested in IVZ.
Giant block
4,858km2 with a portfolio of leads and prospects that can be followed up.
Project has existing 2D & 3D seismic data
7,935km2 2D seismic data and ~3,878km2 of 3D seismic data. As well as ‘well control’ and ‘geological’ data. This data would cost tens of millions of dollars if it were to be done again. CND benefits from all of the old work done on the project.
Surrounded by multi billion barrel oil fields
CND’s project is spread across Tumbes/Talara basin. Talara was responsible for ~1.6 billion barrels of historical production. Nearby oil fields are producing at rates of ~3,000 barrels of oil per day.
Already has existing discoveries
CND’s block has three confirmed discoveries already sitting inside it. The three discoveries that sit inside CND’s block were also a part of a project-sell down by Canadian explorer BPZ Energy worth ~US$335M back in 2012.
Existing processing infrastructure
CND’s project sits ~70km to the north of the Talara oil refinery. The refinery has been processing oil from the Talara basin for decades.
Farm-in deals in offshore Peru signed for up to US$900M
Offshore Peru has attracted big ticket farm-ins before. KNOC (South Korean National Oil Corporation) and Ecopetrol (Colombian National Oil Company) in 2009 signed a deal worth US$900M for projects to the south of CND’s block.
Low-cost work program
CND’s Technical Evaluation Agreement (TEA) means it will be doing mostly desktop work (identifying and ranking drill targets) for an initial two year period. There is no large capital commitment for any exploration wells which gives CND two years to rank its highest priority drill targets and put together big prospective resource numbers.
Low market cap leverage to re-rate
At its current share price (1.6c per share) CND has a market cap of $7.4M. CND had $2.4M in cash at the end of the September quarter giving it an enterprise value of ~$5M.
High-risk, high-reward
We have had success in the past with “swing for the fences” style oil & gas drilling, and we like that CND fits this type of investment.
What do we expect CND to deliver?
Objective #1: Reprocessing of 3D seismic data across the highest priority areas.
As part of its first year work program, CND plans to process 1,000km^2 of 2D seismic data. We want to see CND pick the highest priority areas of its block for this reprocessing work.
Milestones
Pick highest priority targets
Start reprocessing 3D seismic data
Results from the reprocessed data
Objective #2: Prospective/contingent resources for highest priority targets.
After the seismic data is reprocessed, we want to see CND put out prospective resource numbers for leads that haven't been drilled yet, and/or contingent resources for the leads that have been drilled in the past.
Milestones
Prospective resource estimates
Contingent resource estimates
Objective #3: Progress funding for first exploration well.
At the end of the two year Technical Evaluation Agreement (TEA) we want to see CND either progress a farm-in deal to fund its first exploration well and/or go it alone if the company’s market cap is high enough to sole fund the well.
Milestones
Prepare promoting data room
Signed non-binding farm out deal
Sign a binding farm out agreement for one well
Sole funding plan for first exploration well
What could go wrong?
Geopolitical risk
The project is located in Peru which in the past has gone through periods of geopolitical instability. There is always a risk that geopolitical issues could lead to permitting issues. Any geopolitical instability in Peru is likely to impact CND’s share price significantly.
Permitting risk
CND’s project is currently permitted under a Technical Evaluation Agreement (TEA) for a period of two years. Eventually before any drilling work can happen CND will have to convert it into an exploration licence. There is always a risk that the licence doesn't get granted and CND is left with no claim over the asset.
Commodity risk
CND’s project is leveraged to the price and demand for oil & gas. As the world looks to move away from fossil fuels, hydrocarbon projects may be phased out.
Funding risk
CND does not generate any revenues and so is reliant on raising capital to fund its exploration programs. If the markets are unwilling to finance CND’s exploration programs the company may need to go slow on its operations or offer large discounts to its share price when raising capital.
Market risk
If the broader market sells off, investors may shy away from high-risk investment opportunities like junior explorers. During market downturns, investors will look to pull capital away from the high risk investments. CND is a junior explorer and may be impacted by these market wide sell offs.
What is our investment plan?
Our Oil and Gas Investment Strategy is to:
For CND, we plan to hold the majority of our position for the next 2 years.
Disclosure: [Corrected] Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 31,050,000 CND shares and 5,175,000 options at the time of the time of memo (5 December 2023). . . The original disclosure had incorrect details: 40,500,000 CND shares and 6,750,000 options at the time of publishing this article.
CND: Serge Hayon joins as MD, lots of targets and plenty of blue sky.
Oct 24, 2024
Oct 24, 2024 |
9 min
Since we first Invested, CND has identified three primary target areas it could drill. These target areas are from CND’s recent work to reprocess ~1,000km^2 of 3D seismic data. Which successfully mapped out ~20 different leads. Prospective resource estimates are pending across two of the three target areas. Meaning we will soon find out how much oil & gas CND will be going after.
How big is it? CND resource estimate due - TotalEnergies next door
Sep 2, 2024
Sep 2, 2024 |
10 min
Our 2023 Energy Pick Of The Year Condor Energy (ASX: CND) has just finished re-processing legacy 3D seismic data across its giant Peruvian offshore oil and gas block.
Oil & Gas Supermajor TotalEnergies picks up ground next to CND
May 16, 2024
May 16, 2024 |
9 min
Guess who just signed three offshore exploration agreements next to Condor Energy (ASX: CND) in offshore Peru overnight…? One of the five global oil and gas supermajors.
GLV announces details of historical gas discovery - and it has already flowed…
Mar 18, 2024
Mar 18, 2024 |
10 min
Our 2023 Energy Pick of the Year Global Oil & Gas (ASX: GLV) just announced details of an existing, historical DISCOVERY on their license.
GLV Commence Pre-Drill Work on Potentially Giant Oil Resource
Feb 12, 2024
Feb 12, 2024 |
10 min
Global Oil & Gas (ASX: GLV) has an 80% interest in a giant exploration block offshore Peru.
CND provides update on Piedra Redonda gas project in Peru
Oct 16, 2024
Oct 16, 2024 |
2 min
Our 2023 Energy Pick Of The Year Condor Energy (ASX: CND) has provided a promising update on its Piedra Redonda gas project in Peru, outlining multiple potential development pathways.
New seismic data incoming for CND’s offshore prospect in Peru
Aug 20, 2024
Aug 20, 2024 |
3 min
Yesterday, our 2024 Energy Pick of the Year, Condor Energy (ASX: CND) announced the results of new seismic interpretation studies over its Tumbes Basin project offshore Peru.
CND ranks new targets in offshore Peru
Aug 5, 2024
Aug 5, 2024 |
2 min
Our oil and gas Investment Condor Energy (ASX: CND) just put out an exploration update from its offshore asset in Peru.
CND completes fieldwork on oil and gas targets
Jul 8, 2024
Jul 8, 2024 |
2 min
Our 2023 Energy Pick of the Year Condor Energy (ASX: CND) just put out an update on its large Peruvian oil & gas project.
Evidence builds for CND’s big offshore gas play in Peru
Jun 4, 2024
Jun 4, 2024 |
3 min
6-8 Week Bull Run: Recovery Signal?
Dec 15, 2024
Dec 15, 2024 |
18 min
There is a big positive to take away from the last 3 months. Over the last two years it was rare to see a good, fully green week. Let alone two in a row. It was grim. So for the small end of the market to have finally strung together a full 6-8 week bullish run is certainly a big milestone for positivity returning.
What Newsflow is left for this Year?
Dec 7, 2024
Dec 7, 2024 |
19 min
In the business world, the christmas break is often treated as an “artificial deadline” to get deals done and finish projects. Three weeks ago we said we are watching 16 companies that had guided the market to expect material news before christmas… Usually only a handful of companies that guide news actually deliver it on time.
Market Optimism Peaks Ahead of the Holidays
Nov 16, 2024
Nov 16, 2024 |
11 min
The world is still digesting what exactly the US election result will mean for the next four years. The weeks after an election is often a “honeymoon phase”.
Why Small Caps Stand to Benefit from Precious Metals Push
Oct 26, 2024
Oct 26, 2024 |
25 min
Can you feel it? The small end of the market is… feeling good again? It’s being led by gold and silver price rises that are (finally) driving serious interest into a few smaller gold and silver stocks. And people are remembering how it feels when small stocks deliver price rises on high volumes.
Major Announcements Driving Volatility in Small Caps
Oct 12, 2024
Oct 12, 2024 |
15 min
The mood is good in small cap land. Cautious… but good. It was another positive week, with plenty of green across the board.
