What’s lurking below the 3.1M oz. gold and 22M oz. silver? TTM going copper porphyry hunting to find the source

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 1,258,823 TTM shares at the time of publishing this article. The Company has been engaged by TTM to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in TTM over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

What’s below 3.1M oz gold and 22M oz silver?

We might know pretty soon...

Our Investment Titan Minerals (ASX:TTM) already has a 3.1M ounce gold and 22M ounce silver JORC resource (estimate) at its Dynasty project in Ecuador.

Yesterday, somewhat hidden in (very decent) surface trench results, TTM confirmed that it would run geophysical surveys to try and locate the source of all the near surface mineralisation.

It could be a giant copper-gold porphyry which feeds the gold and silver TTM has already found...

Successfully finding a copper/gold porphyry source could add significant scale to what is already a very big resource - and might just tempt a deeper pocketed partner to the asset.

And it has happened before in Ecuador...

This is on top of TTM continuing to drill out and prove up its existing resource via 6,000m of drilling that has just kicked off.

A JORC resource estimate upgrade is targeted for this quarter...

This could arrive into a market which is digesting (and responding well to) gold prices being near all time highs and silver prices looking to breakout and test previous all time highs:

Of course, future commodity prices are impossible to predict with any certainty, and it's possible that gold and silver prices could go down.

TTM has stated in recent investor presentations that it has a goal to build a 5M oz.+ standalone gold mine...

At the moment, TTM’s most advanced project is it’s near surface gold and silver asset at Dynasty.

However, as well as adding ounces to that existing resource estimate, TTM is now hunting for the source of the high grade gold and silver discovered to date - potentially a giant copper porphyry structure that might be what’s feeding the high grade gold and silver near surface.

Most of the drilling to date on TTM’s Dynasty asset has been targeting shallow high grade gold and silver (down to 200m depths) - with 82% of the current resource estimate above 200m depths.

(Source)

TTM first started talking about the potential for a deep copper-gold porphyry source for its existing 3.1M oz gold, 22M oz silver resource in a presentation in May:

(Source)

Yesterday, TTM said it would run a ~920-line km geophysical survey across ~9km of strike to see if geophysics work can validate that theory.

(Source)

(the survey is expected to take a week to complete with results expected ~3-4 weeks after)

So in a month’s time TTM - which already has a large gold/silver resource estimate - could have a blue sky drill target below it - being a potentially giant copper porphyry feeder structure.

And that giant copper porphyry target could come JUST as, in our opinion, the copper price is starting to breakout into new all time highs:

Lets not forget - this is just on TTM’s Dynasty asset.

TTM has two other copper projects...

TTM has an interest in a joint venture (JV) with Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting - it’s Linderos project.

Drilling is ongoing on that project - and TTM’s 20% interest in that project is free carried for up to US$120M in exploration and development funding.

TTM’s strategy with Linderos was to work up the asset and drill just enough holes to attract a partner like Gina’s Hancock to the project.

TTM also has an earlier stage project - Copper Duke - where it is looking to repeat that same strategy again.

Drilling at Copper Duke is also planned this quarter...

TTM is now in a position where it could deliver material exploration results on four fronts:

1. Gold and silver drill results (Dynasty project) - 6,000m drill program started yesterday.
2. Copper Porphyry source target identification (Dynasty project) - geophysical surveys happening now.
3. Copper drilling results (Linderos JV with Gina Rinehart) - drilling right now.
4. Copper drilling to start (Copper Duke project) - drilling planned for this quarter.

All while the gold-silver and copper prices are, in our opinion, looking strong.

Why finding the “source” could be a game changer for TTM

TTM’s current resource estimate is hosted in parallel sets of high grade veins.

The current geological structure is similar to Ecuador’s Fruta Del Norte - the largest gold deposit in the country, owned by $19BN Lundin Gold.

Fruta del Norte weighs in at 8.5M oz gold and 12.4M oz silver.

These types of vein systems can be very profitable because they are typically relatively high grade.

The only drawback is that they can have relatively short mine lives.

Check out this epic tweet on the history of Fruta Del Norte to get some context on what we are talking about:

(Source)

Finding a porphyry source changes the mine life equation for aspiring developers.

It can add giant tonnage to a project (normally at the cost of grade).

So while the porphyry may not be as profitable in the short term, it adds longevity and scale to projects...

A combination of longevity, exploration upside and high grades is exactly what the biggest miners in the world look for when they are acquiring projects.

They tend to like that “free, untapped” exploration upside that they can go in and drill out (with their deeper pockets).

Which is why we think, for TTM even just showing that its project MIGHT have that source structure below its current resource estimate will be a big win for the marketability of its project.

We think having that edge is important, especially today when there is a flurry of M&A activity in Ecuador.

Recent M&A activity in Ecuador...

Over the last ~12-16 months we have seen:

1. China’s CMOC acquired Lumina in a deal worth US$421M.
2. SolGold signed a US$3.2BN deal with the Ecuador government for its Cascabel copper-gold project.
3. A Gina Rinehart backed subsidiary of Hancock Prospecting invested US$120 million for a 49% stake in six different projects, partnering with Ecuador’s national mining company, ENAMI (51%) and did the US$120M deal with TTM.

(Source)

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And one of TTM’s neighbours has started to talk about “pursuing partnership opportunities”.

We did a deep dive on Ecuador M&A in our last note which you can check out here: M&A in Ecuador shows where valuations are heading...

What’s next for TTM?

More drilling at Dynasty gold project 🔄

With drilling now underway we are looking forward to results from the Cerro Verde and Iguana prospects.

Ideally we would like to see extensional hits at Iguana and more gold at depth at Cerro Verde.

In the long run we want to see TTM show that mineralisation extends well beyond its current resource footprint:

Resource upgrade/update at Dynasty 🔲

TTM expects to upgrade its gold and silver resource estimate in Q3 2025.

(Source)

In a presentation in May TTM said the target for a resource would be “+5Moz gold”, so hopefully this year's upgrade gets us closer to that target.

(Source)

More drilling at the Linderos Copper project (Gina JV) 🔄

TTM’s JV partner Hanrine is currently drilling as part of stage 2 of its earn-in agreement.

We are looking forward to seeing some more results over the coming months as the JV is expected to move into stage 3 this quarter.

Here is our mockup of where TTM and Hanrine are with the Linderos JV:

Drilling at Copper Duke (Q3-2025) 🔄

Finally, TTM has also mentioned in a June investor presentation that it would look to drill its earlier stage Copper Duke asset this quarter.

We are looking forward to more news on this front in the coming weeks/months.

What are the risks?

With TTM actively drilling right now the key risk to TTM’s share price in the short term is “exploration risk”.

If TTM is unable to discover more gold over its Dynasty project and publishes a resource upgrade lower than market expectations, it could have a negative impact on the share price.

Poor drill results from the Hanrine JV could also be negative for TTM’s share price, especially if Hanrine chooses not to proceed with the remainder of the JV earn-in stages.

TTM also kicked off geophysical surveys on its projects. there is always a chance those surveys find nothing of interest which would again be below market expectations and could impact TTM’s share price negatively.

Exploration / Drilling risk

There is no guarantee that TTM’s extensional drilling programs will be successful and TTM may fail to uncover enough economic mineralisation to justify the expense.

Source: “What could go wrong” - TTM Investment Memo 29 May 2024

Other risks

Investing in TTM carries other risks which may affect the value of the company.

The Company has a mix of advanced resource stage and exploration stage projects with exposure to gold-silver and copper. There is a risk that no economic discoveries are made on the earlier stage exploration projects.

TTM is also sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices. A sustained downturn in these prices could materially impact the project’s economic viability and the ability of TTM to raise cash to finance exploration.

We have seen this risk impact TTM’s share price in the past - between 2022-2024 when sentiment was poor in the gold-silver sector.

The Company is reliant on securing external funding partners or capital markets to fund development. Any capital raise for new shares may dilute existing shareholders.

The acquisition of TTM is speculative and uncertain. No assurance is given that any acquisition may happen.

Finally, regulatory, environmental, legal enforcement and permitting risks in Ecuador may delay or adversely affect development.

Investors should consider these risks carefully and seek professional advice tailored to their personal circumstances before investing.

Our TTM Investment Memo

Our Investment Memo provides a short, high-level summary of our reasons for Investing.

We use this memo to track the progress of all our Investments over time.

Click here to read our TTM Investment Memo where you will find:

• What does TTM do?
• The macro theme for TTM
• Our TTM Big Bet
• What we want to see TTM achieve
• Why we are Invested in TTM
• The key risks to our Investment Thesis
• Our Investment Plan