We just put more money into MNB...here’s why

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 43,618,834 MNB Shares and 39,378,833 MNB Options. Some Shares and Options are subject to shareholder approval. The Company has been engaged by MNB to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in MNB over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any forward-looking statements are uncertain and not a guaranteed outcome.

Have you ever been holding a promising stock for years and years... and years?

And after delays, setbacks and a share price way lower than your average entry price...

The company has FINALLY pulled it all together and could be about to deliver the objective you originally invested for many years ago?

And a bunch of new investors get to swoop in at the much lower share price than your original entry, enjoy the progress made by the company...

AND

get to ride the “good bit” without suffering the years of pain like you did?

Long time readers will know we have been holding Minbos Resources (ASX:MNB) for 6 years now.

MNB owns a world-class, high-grade phosphate deposit in Angola.

Phosphate is the key ingredient in fertiliser, which is used to grow our food.

We think the global “food security” theme is due for a flare up during the geopolitical world power and global supply chains reshuffling that is currently playing out.

MNB has previously said that it can build a phosphate (fertiliser) plant for ~US$30M-US$40M that will generate US$55M EBITDA per year (base case, on average) over a 20 year mine life. (source: 2022 Definitive Feasibility Study)

Note: those numbers above are early stage desktop economic numbers pre production, with a lot of assumptions baked in, things can and will change. There’s no guarantee MNB will generate these numbers.

At the company’s last trade of 2.2c, MNB was capped at ~$25M.

In years when it looked like MNB was about to start building this phosphate (fertiliser) plant, MNB traded above 15c, even as high as 20c - approaching a $100M market cap.

In recent years, the market punished MNB’s share price for years of delays in securing the full funding package to build the plant and get the mine into production.

And like we always say - the past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

The market stopped believing that the financing would be secured...

BUT... over the last 12 months, MNB has secured the major financing deals it needed, and is now in a position to actually finish the build - which is already well underway.

We were convinced MNB was going to get it built in 2022, then 2023 and then 2024.

In these years plant build financing was “just about to be secured” - but got delayed.

(after being wrong three years in a row we didn't make a “we think they are going to build it this year!” call in 2025... funding hadn’t been secured yet)

We Invested in MNB along this journey at 3c, 8c, 11c, 7c and 2.6c.

And guess what - major plant build financing is now secured.

(on top of the ~US$33M that's already gone into getting the project to where it is today)

After so many years waiting to see this plant get financed and built at higher share prices, now we think that it is FINALLY about to happen...

We made a “larger than our usual” Investment into the MNB placement at 1.5c.

(we also note from the announcement that MNB’s board and management also put in $550k)

After today’s $4M raise, MNB’s market cap (at the raise price) is ~$22M.

The $4M raised by MNB at 1.5c today (with 1:1 options) gives it enough operating cash to get the project closer to “commencement of mining”.

The broader financing package secured by MNB is to FINISH the plant construction... the plant build is already well underway.

For context, I dug up a few “never before shared” photos from my phone of the MNB plant site from when we visited in 2024 (its an empty, grassy field):

Here’s what this same MNB plant site looks like as of a couple of weeks ago:

(source)(source)

The plant build is the key final part of MNB’s long time plan to mine phosphate from its “world class, high grade” phosphate deposit, truck it 36km to the processing plant site, and then 16km to port for export:

Just need to get that phosphate plant built...

Again, MNB’s phosphate fertiliser project’s 2022 Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) shows the project could generate ~US$55M in EBITDA per year (base case, on average) over a 20 year mine life.

And in a presentation released this morning, MNB reckons they are going sneak in first production into late 2026:

(source: Today’s MNB presentation, page 21)

With the recent positive progress from MNB, we have released an updated Investment Memo and our Big Bet for the $22M capped MNB:

Our new MNB Big Bet

"MNB re-rates to a $200M+ market cap by completing construction of its Phosphate Project, moving into production and generating its first fertiliser sales - and/or attracts a strategic investment or takeover bid at multiples of our Entry Price."

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, country risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our MNB Investment Memo.

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Four weeks ago MNB signed the final US$13.8M construction contract that takes its project all the way to "dry commissioning".

(dry commissioning is when you switch a plant on and test everything works - before feeding in the real material)

AND now it looks like MNB has secured enough funding to pay for that construction contract:

• ✅ US$10M equity from the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund (FSDEA) - already received in full and spent on bringing the project to where it is today.
• ✅ US$16M loan from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) of South Africa - the first US$4.8M drawdown was received a few weeks ago. (source)
• ✅ Today’s $4M capital raise at 1.5c (which we participated in)
• 🔄 A term sheet signed with Banco de Fomento Angola (one of Angola’s largest and most established commercial banks) for ~US$5.48M debt facility. (source)

This funding has taken over 3 years to lock in (the company and market thought it would be much quicker), and is effectively what has caused all the delays in getting this plant up and running.

(and the MNB share price to come down to where it is today)

Beyond “dry commissioning", Angola’s Sovereign Wealth Fund has also formed “a joint task force” to secure working capital for the ramp up stage. (source)

(source)

The sovereign wealth fund owns 22% of MNB’s project - it invested US$10M into the asset at a valuation of ~US$45M back in 2024. (source)

In other words - after six years of waiting, the last major leg of the project build is funded, contracted and underway.

MNB is currently capped at ~$22M (at 1.5c per share).

When its plant is built MNB will own Angola's ONLY integrated phosphate mine and fertiliser plant project.

(a project that the Angolan government has declared of “national significance”)

Why did we swing so big on this raise?

Part FOMO because we can't miss the cap raise before “dry commissioning” and full plant construction.

And partly because of the pricing... 1.5c with 1:1 options.

We have been Invested in MNB for almost six years now - our Initial Entry Price was 3c per share.

Now after all of the progress made, MNB is raising at half of that price.

AND... finally because MNB's entire fertiliser plant was designed, bought, and shipped to Angola back in 2023. (source)

We know because we went and saw the plant parts sitting in the warehouse ourselves back in February 2023:

(Check out our site visit note from February 2023 here)

And NOW, MNB is financed to build the plant and put the parts together with most of the civil works done.

Years of financing delays, false starts and share price now well below our 3c Initial Entry Price BUT now, MNB has:

• The civil works finished - platform, roads, drainage, slabs and foundations, done. (source)
• The final construction contract signed - US$13.8M through to dry commissioning. (source)

• A US$16M International Development Corporation (South Africa) loan that is being drawn down right now (to fund a big chunk of the final construction contract). (source)

• US$10M investment from Angola's Sovereign Wealth Fund already received and spent on getting the project to where it is today. (source)
• A new CEO in charge - a Fertiliser industry operator, for the operations phase who spent a few years as Chief marketing and strategy officer at MNB before taking over as CEO. (source)

(source)

We think MNB is a victim of the notorious Lassonde Curve which predicts (or manifests?) a share price slump during the feasibility/development phase for any project - check it out below.

Once a few of the “development” stage milestones fall in place - if the curve is anything to go by, things should start to turn for the company.

(no guarantees for MNB of course)

For MNB - financing is done to “dry commissioning”, engineering is done, permitting is done and now we are in the later stages of construction...

The “institutional/strategic investment” is also done - from the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund. (source)

Hopefully, we see the glorious next phase of the Lassonde curve play out next:

And moving MNB up the second leg of the Lassonde Curve is the core of our new MNB Big Bet:

Our new MNB Big Bet

"MNB re-rates to a $200M+ market cap by completing construction of its Phosphate Project, moving into production and generating its first fertiliser sales - and/or attracts a strategic investment or takeover bid at multiples of our Entry Price."

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, country risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our MNB Investment Memo.

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Later in this note we share our brand new MNB Investment Memo, which lays out:

• What does MNB do
• The macro theme for MNB
• Our MNB Big Bet
• Why we are Invested in MNB
• What we want to see MNB achieve
• The key risks to our Investment Thesis
• Our Investment Plan

But first - here are the 10 reasons we are Invested in MNB today:

The 10 reasons we are Invested in MNB

1. The Angolan government labelled MNB’s project “nationally important”

Angola imports the overwhelming majority of its Fertiliser, and the government has designated MNB's project as being of national importance.

(source)

2. Angola's Sovereign Wealth Fund is a shareholder

The Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund (FSDEA) is a shareholder in MNB’s project.

The sovereign wealth fund owns 22% of MNB’s project - investing US$10M into the asset at a look through valuation of ~US$45M back in 2024. (source)

When the country's own sovereign wealth fund is aligned with MNB shareholders, we think the usual "African project" financing and permitting risks look different.

The FSDEA has also formed a joint task force with MNB to help secure additional working capital for the ramp up. (source)

2. Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) with strong economics

MNB’s phosphate fertiliser project’s Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) shows the project could generate ~US$55M in EBITDA per year (base case, on average) over a 20 year mine life.

(NOTE* this study is now 4 years old, so the numbers could look very different nowadays. We only use it to form a basis for the technicals of the project)

3. The hard part is done - civils complete, final build contract signed

~US$33M has been put into MNB’s project to date. (source)

MNB’s platform, roads, drainage, slabs and foundations are now COMPLETE. (source)

MNB has signed a US$13.8M Phase 2 construction contract covering ALL remaining works to take the plant to dry commissioning.

(dry commissioning is when you switch a plant on and test everything works - before feeding in the real material)

(source)(source)

4. After years of delays, the build funding is secured

MNB’s now secured:

• ✅ US$10M equity from the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund (FSDEA) - received in full. (source)
• ✅ US$16M loan from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) of South Africa - the first US$4.8M drawdown was received a few weeks ago. (source)
• ✅ Today’s $4M capital raise at 1.5c (which we participated in)
• 🔄 A Term sheet signed with Banco de Fomento Angola (one of Angola’s largest and most established commercial banks) for ~US$5.48M. (source)

With build financing now secured, MNB is in a position to FINISH the build - which is already well underway.

5. The plant is already bought, paid for, and sitting in country

MNB's plant was designed and shipped to Angola back in 2023 - it has been sitting in storage a short drive from the site ever since.

(we saw the plant parts with our own eyes on our site visit in February 2023)

6. Fertiliser sold inside Africa carries an “inland premium” and MNB’s product has been tested in country

Angola has some of the best uncultivated arable land in Africa, a government hell-bent on food security, and almost no domestic Fertiliser production.

And Fertiliser sold within Africa captures what's known as the "Africa inland premium" - imported product carries heavy shipping and logistics costs, which a local producer pockets instead.

The product MNB plans to produce has been tested in 70+ field trials inside Angola over 7 years improving crop yields by 60-110%.

(source - Page 10 of the presentation)

7. MNB can produce a product that domestic and export customers want

MNB has 15+ engaged potential customers, 3 in trial-stage, 6 domestic buyers with Letter Of Intent’s signed and 1 committed export offtake partner.

(source)

MNB has also signed a Heads of Agreement with Fertiafrica for granulation services at its Benguela facility - which would produce the first locally granulated fertiliser in Angola's history, using MNB rock as the prime ingredient. (source)

(granulation = turning fertiliser into the small, round, spreadable pellets farmers actually use)

(source)

9. MNB is moving into production now

MNB has spent four years stuck in the trough of the "Lassonde Curve" - the stage between discovery and production where share prices generally tend to drift lower.

We think MNB is now in a position to re-rate higher as it moves into production:

10. (BONUS REASON) MNB also has a green ammonia project

MNB also has a Green Ammonia Project - with access to hydroelectric power at ~US$0.004 per kilowatt hour, some of the cheapest electricity on earth.

In October 2025, MNB signed an agreement with a modular ammonia plant company to jointly develop the project and lodge a joint bid into a major European green ammonia procurement process. (source)

We have covered that project in detail before here: What is MNB’s Green Ammonia Project?

MNB’s gone quiet on this one for now, but we think that once the fertiliser project is up and running it could come to the front again.

We think MNB’s current valuation isn’t really placing any value on that project.

Ultimately, we are hoping the above reasons come together to deliver our MNB Big Bet which is as follows:

Our new MNB Big Bet

"MNB re-rates to a $200M+ market cap by completing construction of its Phosphate Project, moving into production and generating its first fertiliser sales - and/or attracts a strategic investment or takeover bid at multiples of our Entry Price."

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, country risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our MNB Investment Memo.

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

So how did MNB end up here?

We first covered MNB in August 2020 when it was trading at ~3c per share (pre-consolidation equivalent).

By March 2022 it hit 18.5c - up over 600%.

We held most of our position going into 2022 - mainly because we thought it was going to start construction on its plant that year...

But financing took far, far longer than anyone expected (including us).

To make matters worse - a clerical mess over the project's mining licence expiry dates spooked the market until MNB and Angola's mining agency confirmed the error would be rectified earlier this year. (source)

And the share price went from 18.5c all the way down to today’s cap raise price of 1.5c.

(source)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Inside the last ~12 months a lot has changed though, MNB has:

• The civil works finished - platform, roads, drainage, slabs and foundations, done. (source)
• The final construction contract signed - US$13.8M through to dry commissioning. (source)
  
• The plant is in the country.
  
  
• A new CEO in charge - a Fertiliser industry operator, for the operations phase, who has spent a few years at MNB in strategy and marketing. (source)

MNB’s also secured funding to pay for that final construction contract:

• ✅ US$10M equity from the Angolan Sovereign Wealth Fund (FSDEA) - received in full. (source)
• ✅ US$16M loan from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) of South Africa - the first US$4.8M drawdown was received a few weeks ago. (source)
• ✅ Today’s $4M capital raise at 1.5c (which we participated in)
• 🔄 A Term sheet signed with Banco de Fomento Angola (one of Angola’s largest and most established commercial banks) for ~US$5.48M. (source)

The difference in what the site looks like tells the story a lot better than we can - here is a before and after:

Before (in 2023):

After (in 2026):

(source)(source)

What we want to see happen next

Here is how we see the sequence from today:

1. ✅ DONE: Civil works complete - platform, roads, drainage, slabs, foundations.
2. ✅ DONE: US$16M IDC loan signed, first drawdown received.
3. 🔄 UNDERWAY: Phase 2 construction - structural steel, mechanical installation, E&I, process control - through to dry commissioning.
4. 🔄 UNDERWAY: US$5.48M loan from Angola’s Banco de Fomento - term sheet signed, formal agreement to follow.
5. 🔲 NEXT: Dry commissioning, then wet commissioning and first product.
6. 🔲 NEXT: First sales

In the meantime the main thing we want to see next from MNB is lots and lots of photos of the plant construction progressing.

And eventually, the one we have been waiting six years for...

The ceremonial photo of Angolan politicians and MNB management holding up the first sack of Angolan-produced phosphate fertiliser.

(Angola’s independence day is on November 11th - that would be amazing - but probably unlikely this year)

We will take some sort of plant ribbon cutting ceremony or even a site visit this year...

Investment Memo: Minbos Resources Ltd (ASX:MNB) - LIVE

Opened: 20-07-2026
Shares held at open: 43,618,834
Options held at open: 39,378,833

What does MNB do?

Minbos Resources (ASX:MNB) is building Angola's only integrated phosphate mine and fertiliser plant - the Cabinda Phosphate Project.

MNB also owns the Capanda Green Ammonia Project, which has access to some of the cheapest hydroelectric power in the world.

What is the macro theme?

Food security.

Angola has vast agricultural potential but imports almost all of its fertiliser.

Phosphate is essential to fertiliser, global supply is concentrated in a handful of countries, and local production in-country captures the "Africa inland premium" over imported product.

The Angolan government considers MNB's project to be of national importance and its Sovereign Wealth Fund is an MNB shareholder.

Our MNB Big Bet -

"MNB re-rates to a $200M+ market cap by completing construction of its Phosphate Project, moving into production and generating its first fertiliser sales - and/or attracts a strategic investment or takeover bid at multiples of our Entry Price."

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, country risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our MNB Investment Memo.

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Why did we invest in MNB?

1. The Angolan government labelled MNB’s project “nationally important”
2. Angola's Sovereign Wealth Fund is a shareholder
3. Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) with strong economics
4. The hard part is done - civils complete, final build contract signed
5. After years of delays, the build funding is secured
6. The plant is already bought, paid for, and sitting in country
7. Fertiliser sold inside Africa carries an “inland premium” and MNB’s product has been tested in country
8. MNB can produce a product that domestic and export customers want
9. MNB is moving into production now
10. (BONUS REASON) MNB also has a green ammonia project

What do we expect MNB to deliver?

Objective #1: Complete Phase 2 construction

We want to see the plant assembled and reach dry commissioning.

Here are the milestones we are tracking:

• ✅ Civil works complete
• 🔄 Structural steel and mechanical installation
• 🔲 Electrical, instrumentation and process control installed
• 🔲 Dry commissioning achieved

Objective #2: Complete the funding package

We want the full project funding closed out to cover construction AND ramp-up to full operations (“wet commissioning”).

Here are the milestones we are tracking:

• 🔄 Transfer of Mining Investment Contract and Mining License
• ✅ US$10M FSDEA equity received
• ✅ US$16M IDC loan signed, drawdowns underway
• 🔄 US$5.48M Banco de Fomento Angola facility formalised
• 🔄 Working capital facility secured (FSDEA joint task force)

Objective #3: First production and first sales

We want to see the plant wet commissioned, first product produced, and first revenue banked.

Here are the milestones we are tracking:

• 🔲 Wet commissioning
• 🔲 THE photo: the first sack of Angolan-produced phosphate Fertiliser
• 🔲 First shipment to a customer (including any early unprocessed rock sales)
• 🔲 Binding offtake agreement(s) converted from existing MoUs/HOAs
• 🔲 First revenues reported

Bonus objective: Green ammonia project progressed

After the phosphate project is up and running, we would like to see MNB go back and progress the green ammonia project.

What could go wrong?

Permitting risk

MNB has previously mentioned that the transfer of the Mining Investment Contract (MIC) and Mining Licence to MNB's local subsidiary gates early mining and local sales. MNB’s announcement today said that this would be one of the next catalysts to come. There is no guarantee this permitting roadblock is resolved.

Construction and commissioning risk

This is the big one right now. Plants rarely bolt together on time and on budget, and commissioning a first-of-its-kind-in-country plant can surface problems that take months to fix. Any delay would likely hit the share price hard given MNB's history.

Funding and dilution risk

MNB has needed repeated equity raises through the development phase, including at deep discounts. If the BFA facility or working capital lines are delayed, or construction runs over budget, MNB may need to raise again at unattractive prices.

Sovereign risk

The project is in Angola. Government support is strong - but bureaucracy is slow, legal processes are underdeveloped, and the mining licence clerical saga showed how administrative issues can spook the market even when resolved.

Offtake and payment risk

MoUs and HOAs are not binding offtake contracts. MNB needs to convert customer interest into signed agreements - and then actually get paid on time by counterparties in a developing market.

Commodity price risk

The project's economics are leveraged to phosphate and Fertiliser prices, which are cyclical and can move quickly in both directions.

Delay risk

MNB has missed timelines before. Even small slips against the new construction schedule could be punished disproportionately.

Other risks

Like any small-cap resources development company, MNB carries significant risk, here we aim to identify a few more risks.

Although the core civil works are finished, the company faces logistical risks in safely transporting the stored plant components to the site and assembling them. Developing infrastructure in emerging markets like Angola can often lead to unforeseen transport bottlenecks or inflated supply chain costs during final installation.

The recent appointment of a new CEO highlights a critical transition from the engineering phase to the operational phase. Any friction during this leadership handover or a shortage of operational experience in the region could severely stall the project's commercial ramp-up.

Operating and selling fertiliser inside an emerging market introduces significant exposure to local currency volatility and macroeconomic shifts. Unfavorable exchange rate movements or stringent capital repatriation controls could restrict MNB's ability to service its foreign-denominated loans or return profits to shareholders.

Investors should consider these risks carefully and seek professional advice tailored to their personal circumstances before investing.

What is our investment plan?

We have been Invested in MNB since taking a position at 3c in August 2020. Since then, MNB hit a peak of 18.5c in March 2022 before the share price began to trend back to its 1.5c level.

While the share price is off its peak, we are holding for further re-rates as project construction is completed, offtakes are signed, phosphate production begins, and progress is made on the green hydrogen/ammonia side of the business.