IVZ: We go again...

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 13,409,767 IVZ Shares and 7,836,624 IVZ Options and the company's staff own 1,260,417 IVZ Options at the time of publishing this article. The Company has been engaged by IVZ to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in IVZ over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

After two years of waiting...we officially have a big oil & gas drilling event on the horizon.

Today our African oil & gas Investment Invictus Energy (ASX:IVZ) confirmed they will be drilling a new, high impact exploration well in H2 2026 - only a few months to go.

IVZ will be targeting a 1.2 tcf of gas plus 73 million barrels of oil (prospective resource estimate) on one simple, low cost, ~1,500m deep well.

IVZ just raised $10M to support the work heading into drilling next half.

We participated in this raise - the biggest swing we have taken to date at a single IVZ placement.

(and got scaled back in our offer letter - even so it's still the biggest single Investment we have made into an IVZ placement).

We have significantly increased our position size in IVZ, ahead of a new (and long awaited) drilling event this year, into buoyant oil & gas sentiment.

We are Investing now because we think the market is finally ready to reward drilling success again

(in a re-awoken oil & gas market, thanks Strait of Hormuz...)

Especially if success means unlocking a project with a total ~5.5BN barrel of oil equivalent prospective resource (estimate, across its entire project).

(big enough for any supermajor or national oil company to show interest in)

IVZ’s MD Scott MacMillan will be holding a shareholder briefing tomorrow at 11:30AM AEST / 9:30AM AWST over Zoom:

To register your interest, click here.

IVZ is exploring and developing the Cabora Bassa Basin, one of Africa's largest and last untested frontier rift basins.

This is proper, “basin opening” frontier oil and gas exploration (one of our favourite type of investments).

Chasing a total potential 5.5 Billion barrels of oil equivalent (prospective resource estimate).

(source)

The best part - IVZ owns 80%, so if the basin gets “unlocked” it holds the keys to anyone wanting a piece of it.

Success at IVZ’s next well would unlock a new play fairway, which would be combined with IVZ’s previous discovery.

So why now?

Oil & gas is back on the small cap market's radar after years in price and sentiment purgatory.

And after a two year break from major drilling events, IVZ says it is planning its third well for H2 2026 - yep, next half.

(and as we mentioned above, IVZ just raised $10M in preparation for it. We put cash into this placement)

PLUS

IVZ sentiment had been at a multi-year low, and the share price was too.

(well it was until last week...)

Here’s a detailed summary of what happened over recent years:

(source)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Or for a less detailed, “helicopter view, TLDR;” summary:

(source)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

And IVZ is about to start drilling holes again...

Now overlay this with oil & gas prices, and it looks to us like IVZ generally moves when they are about to drill or drilling AND oil & gas prices are moving up:

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

So we have oil & gas macro tailwinds at the same time as IVZ is lining up just the third EVER drill in the Caborra Bassa Basin.

Another reason for “why now” is IVZ’s dormant “meme stock” energy could be reawakened.

It’s a thesis we have Invested in previously with other companies (an example where it worked in a second).

A “meme stock” is a stock that gains popularity among retail investors through social media.

Great when things are going well, a double edged sword when things go wrong or get boring.

In summary, a late stage meme stock company (after a big run):

• lives rent free in many people's heads.
• People check for announcements regularly from the company (even though they may not admit it).
• Company starts doing something exciting again.
• Past investors come back just in case “it actually happens” this time.

AND if the company actually delivers something material - there are enough eyeballs on the stock to re-rate the stock to a level to reflect the company’s new progress.

And the cycle continues.

It’s important to note this is a thesis, and there’s no exact concrete formula or science behind market moves.

IVZ has arguably one of the biggest retail followings on the ASX

(currently either dormant or angry - various levels of emotional states)

When IVZ is drilling, retail investors get active and engaged.

When IVZ is not drilling, they leave, or stay and get angry.

All we need is a real material catalyst to rev them (and us) up again.

Just look at the volume of IVZ memes posted on Reddit during past drill campaigns, into buoyant oil & gas sentiment...

Here’s a few:

Scotty Macs new way to raise capital

Pump up the gas, ft Scotty Mac

Oil & Gas - DJ SCOTTY MAC

The Life of Scotty Mac

Just google ‘Reddit ASX bets Scotty Mac’ and you can probably find a few more.

IVZ usually trades well when it's drilling (or signing giant Qatari deals).

Whether they are still in the stock or moved on, we know IVZ still lives rent free in a LOT of peoples heads.

(your first meme stock is kinda like your first girlfriend - Hi Amanda, hope you are going well)

Meme stocks - a recent case study - can IVZ re-ignite the crowd?

We used our “meme stock re-ignition” thesis when we Invested in the NASDAQ listed, former GameStop era USA meme-stock Hycroft Mining (gold and silver).

That one is up over 1,000% after reigniting some of its meme stock glory over the last 6 months.

(plus gold and silver’s record run AND increase in exploration activity... sorta like IVZ starting drilling again now that oil & gas is running?)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

(Hycroft Mining meme stock stats source: google, read our comments on reactivated meme stock energy in Hycroft here).

For Hycroft to re-enter “meme stock mode”, the trigger was:

• Finishing up ~2 boring years of restructuring, debt clean up and refinancing.
• Drilling and hitting a pod of high grade mineralisation.
• Gold and silver prices going on a big run.

This reactivated the positive sentiment and set Hycroft off on its next run (there was a new twitter/X post about Hycroft every ~12 minutes at one stage during run #2)

For IVZ we think the formula to re-meme stock is to:

• Finish boring 2 years of no major drilling events
• The PPSA is signed - scheduled for April (within the next 9 days?)
• Drilling Musuma-1 well this year
• Oil & gas prices stay buoyant

Elixir Energy (ASX: EXR) is an example of a 2020s “meme-stock” that was re-energised once they started delivering newsflow and success.

Meme stock reawakening is just a part of the total picture for IVZ.

Ultimately IVZ needs a discovery, a successful flow test to prove commerciality, buoyant oil & gas sentiment COMBINED WITH meme stock levels of market attention.

And that is no guarantee to occur of course, this is speculative oil and gas investing - anything may or may not happen.

Swing for the fences oil and gas exploration - our soft spot

We've always had a soft spot for frontier, "swing for the fences", ultra high risk-reward oil & gas exploration stocks in Africa.

And over the last couple of years it feels like there hasn't been a major drill campaign that has properly caught the markets undivided attention.

(will IVZ deliver one in 2026? The northern Zimbabwe drilling window starts in July... and IVZ has flagged today it is planning to drill next half)

We've missed following along the progress of big oil & gas drill events.

Where thousands of punters eagerly follow updates on rig mobilisation, spud date, drill depth updates and trying to understand technical oil & gas mumbo jumbo in drilling progress reports.

And if you are extremely lucky, oil & gas shows a new discovery... and a big share price pop.

No guarantees of course - this is high risk exploration investing, not for the faint of heart.

It was an African oil & gas stock called Africa Oil Corp where I had my first ever 10x on a stock back in 2012 after they made an oil discovery in Kenya. (read about it here)

(past performance is not an indicator of future performance. This 10x return only came after years of bumbling my way around in the small cap markets and learning from my many 90% losses).

So armed with a bit of cash and a lot of hubris I was able to move to writing about early stage stocks full time.

We first Invested in IVZ back in 2020 and have held a material, core position through pretty much everything since.

We held through the Mukuyu-2 discovery share price drop.

(even though it was a gas-condensate discovery. Why don't small cap markets ever make sense?)

We held when IVZ went back up again after the Qatar deal (Al Mansour Holdings, US$500M potential project funding, the whole "Qatari marriage" thing).

And we held after IVZ came back down ~50% when the Qatar deal fell over at the altar in January this year when the parties couldn't agree final terms.

(it's always that last remaining prickly clause at the 13th hour that scuttles contracts).

Now we have (significantly) increased our position in IVZ, almost doubling it.

Here is why we added to our (long held) position in IVZ:

9 reasons why we Invested in IVZ (again)

1. The prize is BIG: IVZ’s project has a 5.5 BN barrel equivalent prospective resource

The Cabora Bassa Basin holds a gross unrisked mean prospective resource estimate of ~5.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

IVZ is exploring and developing the Cabora Bassa Basin, one of Africa's largest and last untested frontier rift basins.

If IVZ can convert even just 10% of that into confirmed, commercial discoveries it should re-rate a lot higher from the current market cap.

The next well (Musuma-1) alone is targeting ~1.2tcf of gas and 73 million barrels of oil -.

(source)

2.Two wells have already confirmed a working hydrocarbon system.

Two wells in, IVZ has confirmed what is usually the hardest part of frontier oil and gas exploration: A working oil & gas system under the Cabora Bassa Basin.

Meaning the right technical fundamentals for defining commercial discoveries are there.

(Seal, trap, reservoir, source, maturity)

Everything from here is about proving commercial scale - just need those flow tests to deliver... 2027?

3. A NEW high-impact well (Musuma-1) lined up to drill in H2 2026

Today’s IVZ announcement says preparations are underway to spud and drill the well in H2 2026.

The Musuma-1 well has a prospective resource of ~1.2 Tcf gas and 73M barrels of condensate (~277M Barrels of oil equivalent). (source)

From all of the years we have followed IVZ, what we know is the drilling window typically opens in July and is open until as late as January (remember the Mukuyu side tracks?).

(source)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Yes, delays can happen.

But IVZ’s got the rig it used last time “warm stacked” (source) - (already mobilised to site) so we are backing IVZ to spud next half as per the timeline it put out today.

4. The long awaited “PPSA” looks imminent, this would remove regulatory risk overhang on the stock.

The Petroleum Production Sharing Agreement has been the elephant in the room for years.

A PPSA in Zimbabwe stands for a Petroleum Production Sharing Agreement, specifically referring to the legal and fiscal framework established between the government of Zimbabwe and exploration companies to manage oil and gas production.

This agreement will be what governs the terms for any commercial discoveries IVZ makes (like royalties, taxes etc).

This agreement with the government becomes very important for IVZ as it moves from exploration into development.

Recent company commentary points to execution THIS MONTH (April 2026).

(source)

5. IVZ's "string of pearls" basin margin play mirrors Africa Oil's Lokichar setup. One discovery can unlock many.

Just like Africa Oil Corp’s Lokichar Basin (my first ever 10x on an oil & gas well back in 2012), the Cabora Bassa basin margin contains multiple prospects sharing similar geological characteristics.

If one "pearl" works, the probability that the next one also works goes up.

(source)

6. IVZ owns 80% of the project.

IVZ never farmed out before the first two drills.

Other explorers in similar setups (Africa Oil Corp, for example) had already farmed down 50% before spudding.

No farmout means IVZ has managed to retain a big ownership stake.

So if the basin is unlocked commercially, IVZ will hold the keys to a potential 5.5BN barrel of oil equivalent basin.

7. IVZ sentiment has been at a multi-year low after a 2 year break from drilling and the Qatar Deal not proceeding. Exactly where we like to enter/increase position.

The failed Qatari deal. A two year break from drilling. Oil and gas sentiment ebbing.

A gas-condensate discovery where the market sold off (need that flow test!).

All of it has beaten the IVZ share price down to a level that in our opinion doesn't reflect what's actually under the ground.

We've seen this before with IVZ: Activity dries up, IVZ’s share price trades lower, then once the drill rig starts moving the market remembers the stock exists.

Generally, we observe that when IVZ has been making tangible progress towards drilling, the share price has traded much higher than it is right now.

The past performance, as always, is not an indicator of future performance.

8. Oil & gas is back on the small cap market's radar after years in the proverbial graveyard, giving macro tailwinds for drilling activity.

After a couple of sleepy years, oil & gas is back on the market's radar.

Small cap O&G explorers that were in the purgatory 6 months ago are now catching bids.

This is a nice macro setup for when IVZ is about to drill.

9. IVZ has one of the biggest dormant retail followings on the ASX.

IVZ has (had?) one of the bigger retail followings on the ASX for a small cap explorer.

Right now, it's dormant. A drill announcement could wake it up fast.

(Similar to what we've seen with names like VUL, LRS, EXR and Hycroft in their prime moments.)

When these stocks have a catalyst and a reason for punters to re-engage, the retail army can drive the share price well beyond what the fundamentals alone would suggest.

A quick reminder:

It's been a while since we last wrote about IVZ (well, aside from the Qatar deal).

For anyone new to the story, here's the quick refresher.

IVZ's project sits in one of the last untested frontier rift basins in Africa.

The Cabora Bassa Basin in Zimbabwe.

The project has a gross unrisked mean prospective resource of ~5.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (estimate).

(source)

Up until a few years ago the project had never been drilled.

In September 2022 IVZ started drilling its first well, Mukuyu-1, and by December had "opened up the system" by defining a working hydrocarbon system.

In 2023 IVZ followed it up with Mukuyu-2, which delivered an official gas-condensate discovery.

From the Mukuyu drill campaigns, IVZ confirmed:

• ✅ Gas readings 135x above background levels
• ✅ Multiple potential gas-bearing reservoir units (up to 13 in the Mukuyu-1 sidetrack)
• ✅ ~900m gross interval, with 225m in potential hydrocarbon bearing zones (upper Angwa target)
• ✅ Multiple seals identified with several hundred-metre thicknesses above the deeper primary targets
• ✅ Elevated fluorescence, indicating condensate or light oil
• ✅ Commercial helium grades up to 0.1% (helium is a valuable by-product)
• A working conventional hydrocarbon system declared 🛢️ ✅
• An official gas-condensate discovery on Mukuyu-2 ✅

Two wells. Both technically successful...

But the market's response has been... underwhelming (more on why we think that happened later - need a flow test on those first discoveries).

IVZ’s Mukuyu discovery was published by Wood Mackenzie as the second largest discovery in Sub-Saharan Africa in an upstream review published by global energy research firm Wood Mackenzie

Wood Mackenzie chart ranked IVZ's discovery as the second biggest in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2023 (behind Shell's Namibia find).

The first four companies on the below image are $345BN capped Shell, $260BN capped Total and then little old IVZ...

Source: IVZ Secures Gas Sample From Major Discovery (March 2024)

We added IVZ to our Portfolio in September 2020 at an Initial Entry Price of 3.5c per share.

We've held a material, core position through everything since. Through the Mukuyu-1 and Mukuyu-2 campaigns, the Qatar deal that promised US$500M and then fell over, and every drill delay in between.

Now we've significantly increased our position, ahead of what we hope is the next drill (Musuma-1) and a flow test of the Mukuyu discovery.

Small cap O&G explorers share prices tend to run up into drill campaigns (IF oil & gas prices are high). Here's why.

We’ve talked about this a lot in the past - a pattern we've watched play out over and over in small cap oil & gas exploration stocks drilling high impact exploration wells:

The share price runs BEFORE the drill result.

Sometimes 2x. Sometimes 5x. Sometimes more. All in anticipation. No results on the table yet.

(Over the past couple of years while oil & gas sentiment sucked, this hasn't played out as much, but oil & gas sentiment is much better this year)

Why this happens

1. Investors accumulate in advance. In the weeks and months before a well spuds, forums light up, punters front-run the binary event.
2. News flow stacks. Rig contract signed. Rig mobilised. Permits granted. Final location confirmed. Each announcement is an incremental data point that primes expectations.
3. Imagination prices the upside. The market gets to dream about what a monster discovery could look like without the hard data to argue against it. Every "maybe" becomes a bid.
4. Commodity macro lines up. When oil & gas is already on the market's radar (like right now), the pre-drill run is stronger. We think we are in one of those windows.

In frontier O&G, the rumour can last 6+ months, and then any "sell the news" part depends entirely on the result.

IVZ has done it before

In the run up to Mukuyu-1 in 2022, IVZ went from ~20c to almost 40c on anticipation alone.

We bought into a placement at 23c in September 2022.

(we are still holding a lot of those 23c shares...)

By the time the rig was on location and spud was imminent, IVZ was trading well above 30c:

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

The last 2 years have been a different phase.

No drilling.

The Qatar deal falling over.

Oil and gas macro in the graveyard.

IVZ’s share price drifted lower and lower.

But we think the markets slowly shifting back into a position where it creates a pre-drill run up:

A pre-drill run which we think needs three ingredients:

1. Visible drill progress (rig contract, mobilisation, firm spud date)
2. Macro cooperation (O&G on the market's radar)
3. A credible timeline (a drill within the next 6 months)

For IVZ in April 2026, all three are lining up for the first time since 2024.

What this means right now

If this pattern holds, the big share price moves in IVZ don't have to wait for the Musuma-1 drill result.

They can happen on:

• PPSA execution
• Rig contract signed
• Rig on location
• Firm spud date
• First zones tested during drilling

None of those are results, just things getting real.

They are pre-result catalysts. Each one a potential re-rate in its own right.

(to be clear: "tend to" is not "always". Plenty of small cap O&G stocks drill with no pre-drill run and have to rely on a genuine discovery to move. This is a pattern, not a law.)

Also, usually we say to top slice and take some profit before the result, we did NOT follow our own rules for Mukuyu-2 results and held everything into the result.

Africa Oil Corp - why I've seen this movie before

Almost exactly 14 years ago, in 2012, an African oil & gas explorer called Africa Oil Corp (TSX: AOI) drilled its first well into an unexplored frontier rift basin in Kenya.

Sound familiar?

AOI's basin was Lokichar.

IVZ's basin is Cabora Bassa. Both untested frontier rifts. Both with a "string of pearls" basin margin play.

Both drilled by a ~$200M market cap explorer on the cusp of something bigger.

IVZ hasn’t drilled any of its “pearls” yet and is currently capped at $106M post raise at 6c.

While Musuma-1 is NOT one of IVZ’s string of pearls basin margin targets, we really want to see IVZ drill one of these next (c’mon Scott!)

Of course, no guarantee IVZ will get anywhere close to replicating Africa Oil Corp - this is high risk exploration.

Quick explainer: what is a "string of pearls" in oil & gas exploration?

A 'string of pearls' is a collection of targets/prospects along a basin margin, sharing a similar geological structure - if you successfully drill one 'pearl' the chances are the other 'pearls' will be successful too.

"Basin Margin targets in the East African Rift System have an exploration success rate of 100% - 14 discoveries from 14 wells."

Drill one “pearl” successfully in the Cabora Bassa basin margin and, based on the regional 14-from-14 track record, the rest of the pearls suddenly are much more likely to be successful.

Source: IVZ to drill any day now, what a past successful exploration campaign looks like (Sept 2022)

AOI went from $1.50 to $12.50 on a successful first well. That's a 10x in a matter of months.

The past performance of AOI is not an indicator of future performance of IVZ.

I know because I was holding AOI. Badly overweight for my financial situation at the time (late 20s, day job, bunch of previous -90% lessons in the rear view mirror, one very patient girlfriend who is now my wife... but would she have married me if I didn't 10x on an African oil & gas exploration stock when we were young?

(I asked and she said probably not.)

The AOI run happened across three progressive announcements in 60 days:

• March 2012, 20m oil column at 1040m. SP closed $3.35.
• May 2012, another oil column over 100m at 1500m. SP $7.82.
• May 2012, another 140m of oil from 1800m to 1940m. SP $9.94.

That's what a successful basin opening campaign can do to a share price.

(March 2024 article)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

AOI went on to farm down to Maersk for close to $1 billion in back-cost repayments and forward carry.

The only difference was AOI quickly got samples to the surface and did successful flow tests.

IVZ’s fluid samples took a bit of messing around, but they eventually came:

Source: IVZ Secures Gas Sample From Major Discovery (March 2024)

IVZ still needs to do a flow test on its Mukuyu discovery, which in our opinion is what the market wants to see before granting IVZ a rerate.

Again: AOI's past is not a prediction of IVZ's future. Most frontier drills don't work. Most of them end in a sad recapitalisation raise. We've written about that risk a hundred times and will keep doing so.

But we flag AOI because the setup is eerily similar. And because we've seen what a basin opening looks like up close, and that experience is part of why we are adding to IVZ right now.

(for the full AOI to IVZ comparison including the "string of pearls" geological overlay, see our 2022 write up: IVZ to drill any day now, what a past successful exploration campaign looks like →)

Hopefully we see one of IVZ’s basin margin targets get drilled in 2027.

The current IVZ setup on paper

So by the end of 2026, if everything IVZ has guided to actually happens, we could see:

1. PPSA signed (regulatory overhang gone)
2. A Musuma-1 exploration well result (brand new discovery potential on a 1.2 Tcf target?)
3. Oil & gas sentiment strength continues

All from a company currently trading at ~$106M market cap (undiluted market cap post capital raise at 6c)

Its been a fair bit of time since our last IVZ memo, so we have put together a new one here:

Our NEW IVZ Investment Memo

Date opened: 21/04/2026

Shares held: 13,409,767

Options held: 7,836,624

What does IVZ do?

Invictus Energy (ASX:IVZ) is an oil and gas exploration company drilling one of the largest un-tested gas prospects in Zimbabwe’s Cabora Bassa basin.

IVZ’s project has a total 5.5BN barrel oil equivalent prospective resource estimate.

(~20tcf gas, 845MMbbl gas condensate plus 1170MMbbl)

What is the macro theme?

Oil & gas is back on the market's radar after a couple of sleepy years.

Small cap O&G explorers are catching bids again. Punters are re-engaging with drill campaigns. We're going into a period where investors are hunting for exposure to fresh frontier basin plays.

IVZ is one of the few ASX-listed names with a drill campaign, a declared discovery, a flow test ahead, AND a legitimate basin-opening story. That combination is rare right now.

Our IVZ "Big Bet"

"To see IVZ make a basin opening oil/gas discovery in Zimbabwe and re-rate by over 1,000% from the 6c capital raise price, similar to the move Africa Oil experienced after making its basin opening discovery in Kenya."

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, country risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our IVZ Investment Memo (see below).

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

9 reasons why we Invested in IVZ

1. The prize is BIG: IVZ’s project has a 5.5 BN barrel equivalent prospective resource

2.Two wells have already confirmed a working hydrocarbon system.

3. A NEW high-impact well (Musuma-1) lined up to drill in H2 2026

4. The long awaited “PPSA” looks imminent, this would remove regulatory risk overhang on the stock.

5. IVZ's "string of pearls" basin margin play mirrors Africa Oil's Lokichar setup. One discovery can unlock many.

6. IVZ owns 80% of the project.

7. IVZ sentiment has been at a multi-year low after a 2 year break from drilling and the Qatar Deal not proceeding. Exactly where we like to enter/increase position.

8. Oil & gas is back on the small cap market's radar after years in the proverbial graveyard, giving macro tailwinds for drilling activity.

9. IVZ has one of the biggest dormant retail followings on the ASX.

What do we want to see IVZ deliver:

Objective #1: Drill the Musuma-1 well

We want to see IVZ drill its next well targeting 1.2 Tcf gas + 77M barrels of condensate resource.

IVZ expects to be drilling next half

Here are the milestones we will be tracking:

🔄Rig mobilisation to site

🔲Drilling starts

🔲Drilling updates

🔲Drilling results

Objective #2: Flow test its Mukuyu discoveries

We want to see IVZ re-enter its Mukuyu discovery - deepen the well into the Lower Angwa reservoir and flow test across both the Upper and Lower Angwa reservoirs.

Here are the milestones we will be tracking:

🔲Flow tests commence

🔲Interim results

🔲Final results (commercial or not decision here)

Objective #3: PPSA signed and executed

We want to see IVZ sign a Petroleum Production Sharing Agreement (PPSA) with the Zimbabwe government.

Recent company commentary points to April 2026. When signed, the biggest regulatory overhang lifts.

Here are the milestones we will be tracking:

🔄PPSA terms finalised

🔲PPSA signed

🔲PPSA executed

Bonus objective - IVZ does a deal on a new asset

A big part of the old deal with the Qatari’s was to look at acquiring new assets in Africa (more advanced assets).

IVZ also mentioned “New venture business development” again in the announcement today - which definitely caught our eye...

(source)

IF this objective came in then it would just be an added bonus for our IVZ Investment Thesis.

What could go wrong?

Exploration risk.

This is a frontier rift basin drill. The most common outcome for any frontier O&G drill is no discovery and a painful share price reaction. Even with the working hydrocarbon system already proven, Musuma-1 is a new target and could fail.

Flow test risk.

The Mukuyu discovery is declared, but commercial flow rates aren't proven. High water content, low permeability, or low flow rates could make the gas uneconomic.

Delay risks.

IVZ has been "about to drill" multiple times. If Musuma-1 slips into 2027, the market loses patience.

Funding risk.

Drilling is expensive. The Qatar deal fell over. IVZ has raised capital again recently. If a drill result doesn't land well, another raise is likely and it will be dilutive.

Jurisdiction risk.

Zimbabwe has a history of political and economic instability. Any shift in government or fiscal terms can impact the project's economics.

PPSA execution risk.

It's close, not signed. If it slips or the final terms land worse than expected, sentiment takes a hit.

Commodity price risk.

Global oil & gas prices drive the economics of any discovery. A sharp move lower changes the calculus.

Other risks:

Like any early-stage exploration company, IVZ carries significant risk, here we aim to identify a few more risks.

While previous wells confirmed a working hydrocarbon system, frontier exploration is statistically difficult and there is no guarantee the upcoming Musuma-1 well will hit commercial quantities. A failure at this specific target would likely lead to a sharp decline in the share price as the market reassesses the basin's potential.

Despite the recent $10M capital raise, deep frontier drilling is incredibly expensive and operational delays are common in the industry. Any unforeseen technical issues could exhaust the current cash balance, leading to further dilutive capital raises that would reduce the value of existing holdings.

The long-awaited PPSA is a critical regulatory hurdle, and any failure to execute this agreement on favorable terms would impact the project's long-term commerciality. Navigating the legal and fiscal framework in Zimbabwe carries inherent sovereign risk, where government policy shifts can occur without warning.

Proving the existence of gas is only half the battle, as the company still needs to demonstrate that it can flow at commercial rates. If the upcoming flow tests show poor permeability or high water content, the discovery may be deemed uneconomic regardless of the total resource size.

Investors should consider these risks carefully and seek professional advice tailored to their personal circumstances before investing.

Our IVZ Investment Strategy

We first Invested in IVZ in September 2020 at an Initial Entry Price of 3.5c per share.

Across the last 6 years we have Free Carried our position and Taken Profit at key points. But we have held a material, core position through every drill result to date.

In April 2026, we significantly increased our position via the recent cap raise at 6c (scaled back in our offer letter).

Our plan from here:

• Hold our core position into the Mukuyu flow test and the Musuma-1 drill result.
• Top Slice a portion of the position if the share price runs significantly into the drill (around 10% of holding).
• Reset the memo if a highly material event occurs (e.g. another strategic deal, a significant acquisition, a transformative capital raise).

This is our strategy. It suits our personal circumstances and is not financial advice for anyone else.