$0.385
Opened: 22-May-2024
Shares Held at Open: 3,790,000
What does MTH do?
Mithril Silver and Gold (ASX:MTH) is a high-grade gold-silver explorer and developer in Mexico.
What is the macro theme?
Gold and silver are both precious metals which are often used as a hedge against inflation.
The gold price is at an all time high and the silver price is at a 12 year high at the time of this memo.
Silver also has a prominent industrial use case in the manufacture of photovoltaic cells for solar panels - and as such can be considered important to the energy transition.
Silver demand from solar panels is projected to grow exponentially through to 2050 - and it is the fastest growing source of silver demand currently.
Mexico is the largest silver producer in the world, and the 7th largest gold producer.
Our Big Bet for MTH
“MTH re-rates to a $150M market cap by expanding its Mexican gold-silver resource with new ultra high-grade silver (and gold) drill hits, taking the project into development and/or attracting a takeover bid at multiples of our Initial Entry Price”
NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved - just some of which we list in our MTH Investment Memo. Success will require a significant amount of luck. There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true.
Why did we invest in MTH?
MTH was capped at >$110M in 2020 and now recapped at $8.4M
Back in 2020 off the back of ultra high grade silver/gold intercepts, MTH’s market cap re-rated to above $110M. We made our Investment in MTH in the recap round at a market cap of $8.4M. With some drilling we hope it can re-rate back to those levels again.
High grade gold/silver JORC resource
MTH has a JORC resource with 373k ounces gold and ~11m ounces of silver. The gold grade for the resource is 4.8g/t and silver grades at 141g/t silver. Both extremely high relative to other gold/silver projects in the market.
Drill rig already on site
MTH has a drill rig on site ready to go and so we should see a lot of newsflow over the next coming months. We are hoping the drilling leads to a material increase in the company’s JORC resource.
Potential to double resource
MTH has previously indicated it thinks the project has the potential for a “multi-million ounce gold and silver” deposit. Looking at some of the drill and rock chip results along the east-west trend, we think there is potential to quickly double the existing resource.
CEO & MD John Skeet has been there and done that (billion $ take over)
John Skeet was GM of projects for Bolnisi Gold from 1997 through to a US$1.1BN deal for its Palmarejo project in Mexico. The takeover was done by the current 7th largest silver company by revenue, New York listed Coeur Mining in 2006. Bolnisi picked up that project in 2004, drilled it out, upgraded its resource and eventually sold it to Coeur 2006. We are hoping Skeet is able to repeat that success with MTH.
Silver price is hitting decade highs
Silver demand is increasing because of demand from the solar panel manufacturing industry. Silver production on the other hand is falling. As a result, prices are looking to breakout into decade highs.
Gold price is at ALL time highs
gold prices are currently trading at all time highs against almost every currency. MTH’s project also has exposure to gold with the current resource containing ~373k ounces of gold.
Mexico top silver and gold producer (and this is in a mature mining area)
Mexico is the largest silver producer in the world, and the 7th largest gold producer. MTH’s project sits in Durango state along the “Sierra Madre Trend” which has produced as much as 6.2 billion ounces of silver - equal to roughly 10% of total global historical production. There are major gold-silver mines throughout the trend, home to multiple large precious metals mining companies.
MTH drilled one of the ASX’s best gold hits in 2021
In July 2021 MTH delivered a gold-silver hit of 8.26m @ 80.3 g/t gold, 705 g/t silver from 468.34m. This was one of the ASX’s top 10 best gold hits of 2021, and drilling will be taking place around this area of the project imminently, a drill rig is on site and ready to go.
Low enterprise value relative to JORC resource
MTH currently trades at an EV per silver equivalent ounce valuation of 27c compared to its TSX and ASX peers which trade in a range of 35c to $1.98 per silver equivalent ounce. Based on the other Mexican high grade exploration/development peer group Mithril's shares could increase 2-4X based on its current resource alone (not including any resource upside potential).
What do we expect MTH to deliver?
Objective #1: Geophysics to rank new drill targets
We want to see MTH run geophysical surveys and identify new drill targets.
Milestones
Lidar and magnetic surveys
New drill targets ranked
Objective #2: Drilling to extend existing JORC resource
We want to see MTH run several drill programs to extend its existing JORC resource
Milestones
Drill permits granted
Drilling commenced
Drilling assays
Objective #3: Upgrade existing JORC resource
Pending positive results from drilling, we want to see MTH release an upgraded JORC Mineral Resource Estimate with more gold and silver ounces in it. We want to see MTH eventually build its resource up to that ~1M ounce gold equivalent level.
Milestones
Release upgraded JORC Resource
Objective #4: Enter feasibility studies
MTH has signalled its intention to enter feasibility studies, which would provide a first pass assessment of the project’s economic viability. As part of the feasibility studies we will be keeping an eye out on the metallurgical testwork MTH completes.
Milestones
Metwork results
Scoping study/preliminary economic assessment
What could go wrong?
Exploration risk
There is no guarantee that MTH’s upcoming drill programs in Mexico are successful and MTH may fail to find economic silver-gold deposits.
Funding risk/dilution risk
As a pre-revenue small cap company, MTH is reliant on capital markets to advance its projects. If something negative happens at a macro or company level, MTH could struggle to access capital on favourable terms. These capital raises may take place at a discount, and result in the issuance of new shares which incur dilution to existing shareholders - we saw this risk play out in the previous iteration of MTH before it went into suspension.
Commodity price risk
The performance of commodity stocks are often closely linked to the value of the underlying commodities they are seeking to extract. Should silver and gold prices fall, this could hurt the MTH share price.
Technology/substitution risk
Solar (PV) technology could improve such that less silver is needed, or another material such as copper could be used as a substitute for silver. Recycling technology may also reduce long term demand for silver.
Market risk
Broader market sentiment could deteriorate, and shares as an investment class trade lower, taking MTH’s share price with it. Alternatively, there could be further sector specific pain ahead where junior explorers suffer a lot more than the broader market.
Development/delay risk
Should any or all of the above risks materialise, MTH could wind up stuck in “development purgatory” where newsflow dries up and the project remains stagnant for a prolonged period of time, hurting the share price. Additionally, if delays occur in terms of material newsflow, the market could turn on MTH.
Political and geopolitical risk
Despite being a mature mining jurisdiction, operating in Mexico is not without risk. Political sentiment towards mining companies and associated laws may change, making it harder to operate, i.e there may be reforms to mining royalty rates that incur steeper costs for operating mines in the country. Or alternatively, tenure and access permits may not be granted. Additionally, operations in this part of Mexico may be impacted by criminal activity.
What is our investment plan?
We are Invested in MTH to see it expand its resource and progress its project into development (or a takeover)
Our plan is to hold the majority of our position in MTH for 3 to 5 years which we hope is enough time to see MTH to move towards development (see “our long term bet” above).
We will apply our standard de-risking strategy.
We may look to sell up to 20% of our holding if the company delivers on one or more of our Investment Memo objectives and/or the share price materially re-rates.
Any sell downs will be in accordance with our trading and hold policy disclosure.
Disclosure: Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 3,790,000 MTH shares, 1,895,000 MTH options. The Company has been engaged by MTH to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in MTH over time.
MTH: Six new drill results incoming… gold and silver prices surging
Dec 11, 2024
Dec 11, 2024 |
10 min
Mithril Silver & Gold (ASX: MTH) is back - announcing that they are already well into their next set of drill holes at their gold and silver project. We are now expecting 6 new drill results from MTH in the near term. According to yesterday’s announcement, drill cores from two holes of this second stage of the campaign are already at the testing lab… … meaning drill assay results for these could be announced any day now.
MTH: Another high grade gold and silver hit
Oct 18, 2024
Oct 18, 2024 |
9 min
Gold just hit US$2,700/oz… Literally just now. After hitting yet another new all time high last night. Silver keeps creeping up and pushing beyond decade highs. Perfect timing for our precious metals exploration Investment Mithril Silver and Gold (ASX:MTH) to deliver another ultra high grade silver and gold drill hit.
MTH announces giant gold-silver hit - assays pending on new hole to test it along strike
Sep 20, 2024
Sep 20, 2024 |
7 min
That gold price is still going up past all time highs… literally every day. Silver price is threatening to push above US$32/oz. And then there’s this… Our Investment, Mexican gold-silver Investment Mithril Silver and Gold (ASX: MTH) just hit a 33m intercept from SURFACE at average grades of 31.8g/t gold and 274g/t silver.
MTH now has Mexican “treasure map” to go after lost silver and gold
Sep 17, 2024
Sep 17, 2024 |
9 min
The silver price is running and looks about to reach new decade highs… Gold is currently on a tear - it's just hit a new all time highs AGAIN. IF investors do start piling into precious metals stocks again, we think it could trigger a re-rate in our Investment Mithril Silver and Gold (ASX: MTH).
MTH first gold + silver assays in, more to come - on track to double its resource
Aug 19, 2024
Aug 19, 2024 |
11 min
Gold is at a new all time high, silver also looks ready to run… Nice timing for Mexican gold-silver explorer Mithril Resources (ASX: MTH) who is drilling for those precious metals right now.
MTH drilling ongoing - resource update in Q1-2025
Dec 10, 2024
Dec 10, 2024 |
2 min
Our silver and gold Investment Mithril Silver & Gold (ASX: MTH), just put out an exploration update for its project in Mexico.
MTH $12.5M capital raise supported by cornerstone investors
Nov 1, 2024
Nov 1, 2024 |
1 min
Earlier this week our Mexican silver Investment Mithril Silver & Gold (ASX:MTH) closed a $12.5M capital raise at 50 cents per share.
MTH sampling delivers up to 736 g/t silver, 8.99 g/t gold
Oct 22, 2024
Oct 22, 2024 |
2 min
Today, our high-grade gold-silver Investment, Mithril Silver and Gold (ASX: MTH) reported some excellent channel sampling results from its project in Mexico.
US$1BN deal for a Mexican silver project?
Sep 6, 2024
Sep 6, 2024 |
6 min
$2.1BN First Majestic is taking over an underground silver mine in Mexico for US$970M.
MTH hits high grade gold and silver from diamond saw
Jun 12, 2024
Jun 12, 2024 |
3 min
Today, our gold-silver explorer and developer Mithril Resources (ASX: MTH) announced excellent gold and silver assays from its diamond saw channel sample results at its project in Mexico.
Reflections on 2024: Markets, Moves, and Milestones
Dec 22, 2024
Dec 22, 2024 |
12 min
Well, that’s pretty much it for the year. Another bearish year for the small end of the ASX. But at least the market managed to string together a few bright patches this year. Most notably during October and November.
6-8 Week Bull Run: Recovery Signal?
Dec 15, 2024
Dec 15, 2024 |
18 min
There is a big positive to take away from the last 3 months. Over the last two years it was rare to see a good, fully green week. Let alone two in a row. It was grim. So for the small end of the market to have finally strung together a full 6-8 week bullish run is certainly a big milestone for positivity returning.
What Newsflow is left for this Year?
Dec 7, 2024
Dec 7, 2024 |
19 min
In the business world, the christmas break is often treated as an “artificial deadline” to get deals done and finish projects. Three weeks ago we said we are watching 16 companies that had guided the market to expect material news before christmas… Usually only a handful of companies that guide news actually deliver it on time.
Market Optimism Peaks Ahead of the Holidays
Nov 16, 2024
Nov 16, 2024 |
11 min
The world is still digesting what exactly the US election result will mean for the next four years. The weeks after an election is often a “honeymoon phase”.
Insights from Industry Leaders at IMARC
Nov 2, 2024
Nov 2, 2024 |
17 min
A few of our team was in Sydney this week for the IMARC conference, and to hear from some of our Portfolio Companies. IMARC is the largest mining conference in Australia - so the big mining companies show up, but also well attended by small cap companies and investors. The sentiment “vibe” is definitely improving, something we’ve been observing and pointing out in recent weekend editions.
