ASX listed companies with US projects are being re-rated on market and are finally getting access to capital to drill test their projects. We think US investors haven’t fully caught on yet.
$0.295
Opened: 01-Aug-2025
Shares Held at Open: 4,945,000
What does LKY do?
LKY is a junior mining exploration company with ground directly next door to the largest and only rare earths mine in the USA owned by MP Materials.
It has ground prospective for both antimony and rare earths.
What is the macro theme?
Critical minerals and US-based projects are attracting attention and capital.
Trump is now looking to adopt pandemic-era level urgency to boost critical minerals production in the US.
LKY has exposure to two key US critical minerals: rare earths and antimony.
Antimony is a critical military metal used for various defence applications like missiles, tanks and ammunition.
Rare earths are a set of niche minerals used in the production of magnets for various military applications and AI.
With Trump signing Executive Orders to encourage US domestic critical metals production, fast track permitting and providing funding for mining projects private interest and capital has followed into the sector.
Our Big Bet for LKY
“LKY to re-rate to $200M market cap on the back of strong drill results and maiden resource, plus continued interest and capital flows into the USA critical metals thematic”
NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including exploration risk, funding risk, permitting risk - just some of which we list in our LKY Investment Memo.
Why did we invest in LKY?
“US Critical Minerals” is an emerging thematic right now
ASX listed companies with US projects are being re-rated on market and are finally getting access to capital to drill test their projects. We think US investors haven’t fully caught on yet.
LKY’s project is directly next to Mountain Pass, owned by $16BN capped MP Materials
MP’s project is the only producing rare earths mine in the USA and just did large deals with the Pentagon and tech giant Apple.
LKY could deliver early stage nearology re-rates like RML
Our last US critical metals investment before LKY was RML. RML sits next to a project that is set to become the USA’s only domestic source of antimony. RML is up over 480% from our Initial Entry Price. LKY sits next to the only rare earths mine in the USA.
LKY acquired the ground BEFORE US Critical Minerals theme was hot
LKY picked up its project in 2023, way before broad based market interest in US based critical minerals projects OR MP Materials. We like first and early movers in an emerging theme.
Drilling permits in place, drilling this quarter
LKY has permits in place for drilling on two of its projects. Drilling is expected to start this quarter.
One of LKY’s projects has produced antimony in the past
LKY’s largest blocks to the north-east of MP Materials is home to an old antimony mine and a small antimony smelter. We think that is a good sign there could be more antimony mineralisation on these blocks.
Institutional investors are backing LKY, cornerstoned by Tribeca
Tribeca Investment Partners have $1.7BN in funds under management, and have had a history of success in the mining sector. Tribeca cornerstoned LKY’s 9.5c placement (source).
LKY is listed in the USA via the OTC
LKY has been OTC listed for the last 6 weeks. When the US critical metals theme starts gaining more traction in the US, its possible more US investors invest in LKY via OTC (OTC: LKYRF)
LKY is looking to go downstream (mineral processing) right now
LKY has explicitly said in past investor presentations that it is looking at a “downstream” and processing strategy. Finding and mining the critical minerals is one thing, but processing them is another big national security issue.
🚨BREAKING: US Government to adopt “vaccine development during the pandemic” levels of urgency to boost US critical minerals
(source)
What do we expect LKY to deliver?
Objective #1: Exploration drilling at its two projects
LKY is fully permitted for an 8-hole drilling campaign across two prospects.
Milestones
Drill rig mobilisation
Drilling (El Campo)
Drilling (Northern Block)
Assay results
Objective #2: Upsize drilling permits
LKY is looking to increase the size/scale of the drill program. We want to see permits granted and drilling of additional holes started.
Milestones
Soil Sampling
Modelling of existing 3D data
Identify drill targets
Permit for further drilling
Objective #3: (Bonus): US government funding OR downstream partnerships
This would be an added bonus for us. We would like to see LKY land some US government funding for its project OR add a downstream element to the business.
Milestones
US funding deal
Downstream partnership/deal
What could go wrong?
Exploration risk
There is no guarantee that LKY’s upcoming drill programs are successful. LKY may fail to find economic deposits of rare earths or antimony in which case we would expect the share price to re-rate lower.
Funding risk/dilution risk
As a pre-revenue small cap company, LKY is reliant on capital markets to advance its projects. If something negative happens at a macro or company level, LKY could struggle to access capital on favourable terms.
These capital raises may take place at a discount, and result in the issuance of new shares which incur dilution to existing shareholders.
Commodity price risk
The performance of commodity stocks are often closely linked to the value of the underlying commodities they are seeking to extract. Should rare earths or antimony prices fall, this could hurt the LKY share price.
Tenure risk
LKY’s El Campo project sits inside MP Materials Mountain Pass tenement. In the past MP Materials has contested LKY’s drilling (however the claim was rejected by regulatory bodies).
Market risk
Broader market sentiment could deteriorate, and shares as an investment class trade lower, taking LKY’s share price with it. Alternatively, there could be further sector specific pain ahead where junior explorers suffer a lot more than the broader market.
What is our investment plan?
We are Invested in LKY to make a discovery and define a REE or antimony resource.
Our plan is to hold the majority of our position in LKY for 1 year as part of our Catalyst Hunter exploration portfolio, which we hope is enough time to see LKY drill out its project, make a discovery and release a maiden JORC resource.
We may look to sell up to 20% of our holding if the company delivers on one or more of our Investment Memo objectives and/or the share price materially re-rates in line with our minimum hold conditions.
Disclosure: Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 4,945,000 LKY Shares at the time of publishing this investment memo. The Company has been engaged by LKY to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in LKY over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.
LKY: Racing to build the USA’s first antimony mine
Nov 13, 2025
Nov 13, 2025 |
11 min
Okay, that US$191M financing “letter of interest” Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) received from the US Export-Import Bank 9 days ago makes a lot more sense now. This morning our US critical minerals Investment LKY outlined progress and next steps on rapidly bringing into production its Desert Antimony Mine in California, USA.
US $191M funding from US Export Import Bank: LKY receives “Letter of Interest”
Nov 3, 2025
Nov 3, 2025 |
13 min
Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) just announced US$191M in potential financing support from the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM). The US Export-Import Bank is the official credit agency of the USA and currently has a mandate to finance projects to reduce US dependency on critical minerals coming out of China.
LKY: Delivers First domestic antimony production in USA in decades
Oct 20, 2025
Oct 20, 2025 |
12 min
Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) just produced the first USA sourced and USA refined antimony in decades.
What we saw at LKY’s antimony and rare earths projects right next door to $20B MP Materials
Sep 22, 2025
Sep 22, 2025 |
15 min
Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) is going for speed. USA sourced, USA made and USA processed antimony. And the ~$150M capped LKY is seeking to become the first to do it.
LKY doubles landholding next door to $16BN US rare earths national champion
Sep 11, 2025
Sep 11, 2025 |
12 min
At the moment there is only one rare earths producer in the US - the $19BN capped MP Materials. MP operates the Mountain Pass rare earths mine in California, with a processing facility next door. Our Investment Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) was one of the first ASX listed company to see what was coming and secured ground around MP back in 2023. Today LKY doubled its landholding next to MP Materials, and now has it surrounded.
LKY to start drilling on US critical minerals project soon.
Nov 27, 2025
Nov 27, 2025 |
3 min
Our Investment Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) now expects to be drilling its US critical minerals soon.
LKY adds Lockheed Martin exec to its advisory board
Nov 24, 2025
Nov 24, 2025 |
4 min
Our US critical minerals Investment Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) has just appointed a Lockheed Martin strategy and risk manager (Stacy Newstead) to its advisory board. Stacy is currently responsible for US supply chain risk mitigation at $165BN Lockheed Martin - one of the largest defence contractors on the planet.
LKY partners with Columbia Uni for rare earths processing tech
Nov 17, 2025
Nov 17, 2025 |
3 min
Our US critical minerals Investment Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) just entered into a research partnership with Columbia University for rare earth processing tech.
LKY maps 4 levelled underground workings on US antimony project
Nov 10, 2025
Nov 10, 2025 |
2 min
Our US critical minerals Investment Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY), just completed LiDAR surveys at its Desert Antimony Mine Prospect (DAM).
LKY moves closer to US antimony production with MOU
Nov 5, 2025
Nov 5, 2025 |
2 min
Our US critical minerals Investment Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) just signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for processing of its antimony ore…
Sunday Edition: 30th November
Nov 30, 2025
Nov 30, 2025 |
15 min
Tomorrow’s market open promises to be a very interesting one for silver stocks after silver’s near 6% surge on Friday night post the ASX closing… (hitting the highest price in its history and delivering a key breakout of a 50 year chart pattern we have been watching…) Here are all the silver stocks we are Invested in and ones to watch on Monday morning, click on the link to read out Investment thesis for each one:
Sunday Edition: 23rd November
Nov 23, 2025
Nov 23, 2025 |
14 min
Only a few weeks til Christmas now. What might it take for a Santa rally to happen this year? (A Christmas miracle after Friday’s broad sell off? At least global markets bounced back on Friday night promising a positive Monday on the ASX) Below is a summary and links for everything else we wrote about last week, along with some other interesting content we found in relation to our Portfolio.
Sunday Edition: 16th November
Nov 16, 2025
Nov 16, 2025 |
18 min
Yesterday we wrote about what the future of war will look like… And the critical minerals needed by countries to quickly build the biggest armies of autonomous robot war dogs and war drones, with the best AI. Our Investment Island Pharmaceuticals (ASX:ILA)’s drug Galidesivir has the potential to defend against bioweapons. ILA says they are coming out of trading halt tomorrow (Monday) morning “pending an announcement by Island Pharmaceuticals regarding US Food & Drug Administration feedback on Galidesivir program”
The Rollercoaster in Silver and the Rapid Rise of AI-Driven Defence
Nov 15, 2025
Nov 15, 2025 |
6 min
The original plan for today was a little “self pat on the back” about the silver price roaring up 9% for the week and getting back to the highest it’s ever been… And maybe a quick revisit of our silver thesis and silver stocks. Then we woke up to silver being down by 3.3% for the day. But instead, today we are going to write about emotions and autonomous AI robot war dogs
Sunday Edition: 9th November
Nov 9, 2025
Nov 9, 2025 |
17 min
Happy Sunday… Below is a summary and links for everything we wrote about last week, along with some other interesting content we found in relation to our Portfolio. We have been talking a lot about the accelerating race between the US and China to be the leading global superpower… … and how the winner in technology, AI and the mass manufacturing of autonomous AI war robots and drones will ultimately be the new global power.
