Waking up to a 10% Silver increase setting another new all time high, we can't wait for Monday.

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We hope everyone is enjoying a relaxing holiday break...

And spending quality time with the family after being focused on work during the year.

That was our plan too...

Until the silver price decided to surge by 14.5% over the last 72 hours...

(what?? It’s meant to be the quiet holiday period in the markets?)

Holidays or not, a 14.5% rise in any global commodity in such a short time is frankly, outrageous.

This silver surge included one of the biggest single day rises in its history, up 10.3% in the last trading session that finished a few hours ago:

(Source)

With China silver export controls starting in 4 days and the silver price in China trading much higher in the West over the last 72 hours...

even the world’s richest person Elon Musk entered the chat on silver about an hour ago:

(Source)

After we went overweight in silver stocks back in September, it was hard not to be distractedly staring at our phones all day while open-mouth breathing in awe at the silver price run...

During what was meant to be peak holiday and family time.

So with the “Cats in the Cradle” song playing in my head as my wife and young son go to the park without me this morning...

Instead I am going to try and explain what on earth could be going on with the silver price.

And why is it happening over the holidays...

But first, the ASX closed for trading at 2:10pm AEDT on the 24th December... three full days ago.

The silver price was ~US$69.5 at the ASX’s last close.

(which we already thought was unbelievable... at the time)

Since the ASX market has been closed... silver has still been trading every day except Christmas Day...

And the silver price is up 14.5% since the ASX last traded.

The ASX is trading again on Monday morning (two more sleeps), and ASX silver stocks now have a 14.5% surge in the silver price to factor in when trading opens again.

So why the obscene “14.5% in 3 days” price rise during the Christmas holidays?

It could be an “Uno reverse card” being played by China on a move pulled by the USA nearly 100 years ago...

Back in September, while visiting the USA, instead of doing something “fun”, I took the family to visit a historic silver mining town in Colorado that used to be the “silver mining capital of the USA” - Leadville.

(Wife: *rolls eyes*, Son: “but Daaaad, I don't want to go and see another old silver mine”,)

At the very exciting (according to me) Leadville silver and gold museum, we all learned about the USA’s Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890 and the Silver Purchase Act of 1934.

The US Silver Purchase Act of 1934 ordered the US Treasury to buy huge amounts of silver until it made up about a quarter of US gold and silver reserves.

This policy sharply increased official silver demand, helping to more than double the world silver price from early‐1930s lows and temporarily boosting US mining companies and global silver prices.

(hence making voters and senators from the many US silver mining states very happy - mission accomplished)

BUT...

At the time (1930’s), China’s currency was backed by silver (like the US currency was originally backed by gold).

China, which still ran on a silver standard, was hit hard because higher global silver prices made it profitable to export Chinese silver coins and bars to the US, draining the country’s monetary base.

As silver flowed out, China suffered deflation, rising interest rates and a credit crunch, especially in Shanghai, which destabilised banks and squeezed the real economy.

The Nationalist government tried to slow the silver outflow with export taxes and controls but could not stop the pressure on its silver‐based currency.

This crisis was a central trigger for the 1935 currency reform, when China abandoned the silver standard, withdrew silver dollars from circulation, and introduced a new fiat currency (the fabi) to break the link to silver and regain monetary control.

China’s move off the silver standard unleashed high inflation, currency instability, banking disruption and social unrest, as the new fiat money could be over‐issued as the old silver‐based system was dismantled.

So what's this got to do with the silver surge over the last couple of days?

On Wednesday night, 24th December, I started receiving screenshots of the silver price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange...

Apparently the price of silver in China was a LOT higher than it was in the West...

(vice versa of the 1934 USA silver Purchase Act)

So in Shanghai you could SELL silver for ~US$80 per ounce.

On Western exchanges you could BUY silver for under ~US$72...

So anyone could buy silver in the west for US$72 and instantly sell it to China for US$80.

“Instant free money”

And of course, capitalists gonna capitalise...

It seems logical that the rapid increase in the silver price over the last 72 hours was a rush by traders to capture this arbitrage and buy silver in the West and sell it in China to make a few quick, risk free bucks.

(can’t really blame them - that’s their job)

We watched as the silver price on Western exchanges moved up and up to almost match the price willing to be paid on Chinese exchanges (explaining the 14.5% rise?) as traders chewed through the price difference.

Coincidence #1 - all this is happening while most people in the West who should be policing, monitoring or reporting on these kinds of shenanigans are distracted by the Christmas holidays.

Coincidence #2 - this “run on Western silver” is happening just days before China’s export controls on silver start on January 1st 2026 - in 4 days from today - so any silver going into China aint coming back out again...

Coincidence #3 - this is similar to how the USA drained China’s physical silver in the 1930s with the “Silver Purchase Act 1934” that pushed up US silver prices, vacuuming physical silver out of China into the USA.

This theory seems to hang together pretty nicely.

And it wouldn’t be the first time China has used the West’s “free market capitalism” against it to gain some serious leverage.

We’ve already seen it happen over the last 40 years when US companies outsourced strategic manufacturing and critical metals mining to China because it was “cheaper” - making a few extra profits for shareholders but leaving the US with a massive strategic disadvantage they need to sort out today...

(US reshoring of critical minerals mining and manufacturing is our other favourite themes for 2026)

Which reminds us of the saying: “free markets inherently fail to price in environmental and national security concerns.”

Over the last 72 hours we are seeing the same happen with silver.

So is this China making a grab for the West’s physical silver, while the West is busy on holiday AND China’s silver export controls start in 4 days?

(And perhaps a satisfying little “F you” from China for the chaos caused by the USA’s Silver Purchase Act in 1934 when high USA silver pricing drained physical silver out of China?)

We think there is a lot more to come in this developing story...

Silver (and the ASX) trades again on Monday and we will be watching closely.

Especially to see what mainstream financial media says about all this.

(when they get back to their desks from holidays that is).

AND what silver buyers in Shanghai will be willing to pay come Monday morning.

If this DOES turn out to be the starting gun of some sort of “East vs West” silver hoarding war...

then US based, primary silver assets are suddenly going to become very interesting...

(the US also just declared silver a “critical mineral” ~6 weeks ago - doubt that would have stopped the silver arbitrage traders...)

Here is that Elon Musk silver comment again from an hour ago:

(Source)

And here are our USA based silver investments:

Sun Silver (ASX:SS1, OTC: SSLVF)

SS1 has the biggest pre-production silver asset on the ASX and in the USA. SS1’s current resource estimate was recently increased to 539M ounces silver equivalent (with more drill hits outside this zone and closer to surface). It could also host a giant antimony resource with a reassay program continuing and a possible maiden resource for early next year.

Read our SS1 Investment Thesis

Black Bear Minerals (ASX:BKB, OTC: BKBMF)

BKB owns 100% of a previously producing, high grade silver project, in Texas, USA. The project has a 17.5M ounces of silver (non-JORC) resource estimate at an average silver grade of 289g/t AND over $150M in processing plant and infrastructure. The project was last producing silver in 2012-2013 when prices were <US$20 per ounce. BKB is aiming to get the project back into production with the new environment of silver prices >US$50 per ounce.

Read our BKB Investment Thesis

Pantera Minerals (ASX:PFE, OTC:PTMLF)

PFE just recently picked up silver and antimony exploration assets in Arkansas, USA. PFE’s project has been historically mined for silver and antimony decades ago, but there has been no modern exploration on the ground since. PFE recently sold its lithium asset (also in Arkansas for up to $40M) after picking up the ground only a few years ago. We are backing the PFE team to do the same again in Arkansas, this time with silver-antimony projects.

Read our PFE Investment Thesis

But with the silver price up so much, won’t free market capitalism “do its thing” and silver production will ramp up to meet demand?

It’s not that simple in silver’s case...

70% of silver is produced as a “by product” of mining other metals.

For example, if a primary lead/zinc mine makes a few % of its revenue from its silver byproduct, why would management ramp lead and zinc production just because the silver price has doubled?

It wouldn’t.

To meet new demand, the west needs new silver mines... PRIMARY silver mines where silver is the main commodity being mined and can respond to price increases.

When we went on our “adding new silver stocks” rampage in September - we focused on later stage development projects that were all going to be PRIMARY silver mines.

(or at least primary silver + gold, or primarily focused on silver extraction from polymetallic deposit with high grade silver)

Here they are:

Mithril Silver and Gold (ASX: MTH)

MTH has a 373k ounce gold, 11M ounce silver, high grade JORC resource estimate in Mexico. MTH is set to have three rigs on the ground soon and is aiming to grow the resource estimate to ~2.5-3M ounces gold equivalent over the next 12-14 months.

Read our MTH Investment Thesis

Rapid Critical Metals (ASX: RCM)

RCM has an estimated 67M ounces of silver equivalent resources at a very high average grade of ~400g/t AgEq across three NSW projects. RCM’s target is to grow that number to 100M ounces silver equivalent. RCM is backed by major institutional investors Sprott, Tribeca, and Jupiter.

Read our RCM Investment Thesis

Advance Metals (ASX: AVM, OTC: AVMLF)

AVM has a ~100M ounces of silver equivalent foreign resources across three Mexican projects and a high-grade gold project in Victoria. AVM is backed by major investors Tribeca, Jupiter, Lowell, and APAC. AVM is planning a North American dual listing and is drilling both its Mexican silver and Victorian gold assets.

Read our AVM Investment Thesis

Investigator Resources (ASX: IVR, OTC: SUTAF )

IVR has one of Australia’s highest-grade undeveloped silver projects (in South Australia), with an estimated 57M ounces of silver at average grades of 73g/t silver. Now advancing a Definitive Feasibility Study and permitting. IVR’s biggest shareholder is billion dollar precious metals fund Jupiter Asset Management.

Read our IVR Investment Thesis

West Coast Silver (ASX:WCE)

WCE is aiming to extend the Elizabeth Hill silver mine. Elizabeth Hill was the highest grade silver mine in Australia when it was last in production in the 1990s. WCE is aiming to extend the remnant historic resources at the mine and hopefully make a repeat discovery on its regional targets.

Read our WCE Investment Thesis

There are not many ASX silver stocks. So if and when capital starts chasing silver exposure... it will need to shoe-horn itself into the small handful of existing ASX silver stocks.

ASX silver stocks to run if/when a proper “silver mania” starts - Bitcoin and crypto bulls coming into silver in 2026?

Our twitter/X feed has been flooded with two types of posts over the last 72 hours.

1. Gold and silver bugs patting themselves on the back.
2. Bitcoin and crypto bulls talking about silver and trying to comprehend how and why silver outperformed bitcoin this year.

Bitcoin took the world by storm over the last 5 to 10 years - and vacuumed up a lot of capital that would usually be in precious metals - as an “alternative” to gold and silver...

The key take away for us is the substantially increased level of discussion of silver by the bitcoin crowd.

Silver appears to be living rent free in their heads over the last couple of days...

(no judgement on bitcoin here, just an observation - we also hold some bitcoin and are averaging into bitcoin every month)

It would be great to see bitcoin money start flowing into silver and silver stocks during 2026.

For a fun weekend read (if you are long silver), check out the #silver thread on X.

With 2026 just around the corner... we are also bullish US Critical Minerals.

With what appears to be “shots fired” on the new US critical mineral silver over the last few days, it re-enforces our other favourite 2026 theme - the USA securing domestic supply of critical minerals.

We think the US critical minerals thematic is a lot about rebuilding US domestic supply chains and reducing dependency on Chinese supply.

The Chinese spent decades and billions of dollars of capital building out a leadership position in critical minerals mining/processing.

(with the USA giving up its strategic domestic mining and processing to save a few bucks and doing it cheaper in China)

We think that isn't a leadership position that gets disrupted with 3-6 months of positive sentiment in markets.

It will take a few years to iron itself out (assuming the US goes really hard and fast) - under normal circumstances it could take decades.

The US has said it is adopting “Manhattan Project” level speed and JP Morgan is saying that the US has a five year window to fix things. US Army eyes off critical mineral processing.

IF it's going to happen that quickly, we think there is A LOT more to play out in this thematic before we can say for sure we have seen a cycle top.

We think 2026 will be the year of more government funding and grants being thrown around to the US critical minerals companies who have used 2025 to position themselves to benefit from all of that US interest/capital.

Here is where we think the three macro thematics are in our “macro thematic chart”:

Without a doubt though, right now is precious metals moment...

Especially silver...

Catch up on our favourite macro thematics and some “holiday” reading

First here are all of our Investments in the following order:

1. Our gold Investments - TTM, KAU, BKB, RML, HAR, BPM, PUR
2. Our silver Investments - SS1, IVR, BKB, MTH, WCE, RCM, AVM, PFE
3. Our US critical minerals Investments - SS1, RML, LKY, ION, VKA, LSR, PFE

We put out a note earlier in the week with a full list of these where you can click through to each of the companies Investment Memos - check out that note here.

Here are the three eBooks we wrote for the three macro thematics too:

1 - Gold and silver eBook from (February 2025) - This eBook is more about precious metals in general, if you want some educational holiday reading to learn more about the history of gold and silver.

(Download here)

2 - Our most up to date silver eBook (December 2025) - In this eBook, we share why we think the silver price has just started a “generational price run”.

(Download here)

3 - And our US Critical Minerals eBook - Where we detail why we think the US is going to have a 2-3 year period of giant capital inflows into its domestic critical minerals supply chain.

(Download here)

See you in 2026?

Or maybe even before that...

It’s a very strange and exciting time in the market - especially for gold and silver.

Have a great weekend,

Next Investors