Volatility Hits Gold And Silver - Our Ebook Revisited

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Well, that was quite the pull back...

We woke up this morning to see silver down 25% and gold down 9%... in a single session.

Gold gave away six sessions worth of gains - now at US$4,895.

Silver gave away 14 sessions worth of gains - now at US$85.

Both had a blistering start to 2026... silver peaked at 71% up and gold peaked at 29%.

Just over the first four weeks of the year.

Now both have come back to price levels not seen in... over two hundred hours of trading.

We are expecting some extreme volatility in what appears to be a new phase of price discovery for precious metals.

Ultimately, while there will be up days and down days, we think (hope) both gold and silver are going to keep going up over the coming months - we’ll explain why shortly.

With silver, it’s not the first pull back we have seen in the last 6 months.

Over a couple of days in December silver dropped from US$83 to US$70 (18.5%).

Back in October, silver dropped from US$55 to US$47 (17%), just a couple of weeks after we added a bunch of new silver stocks to our Portfolio.

Here is an image we made outlining the emotions experienced during the US$55 to US$47 drop and subsequent rebound back in October:

(source - read it here)

(if you had told us in October after silver dropped from $55 to $47 that 3 months later silver would drop to US$85, we would have been delighted...)

Right now we are feeling a little bit stage 3 (natural human reaction).

Hopefully next week we move to emotional stage 4, then soon after 5.

(and the next up-cycle starts yet again like in October and December...?)

Gold delivered a huge 29% run over the last four weeks.

Despite giving away the last few days of gains, gold really looks like it wants to do “something” (big price run followed by volatility)...

Anyone invested in small ASX gold stocks knows that while there have been some “OK” returns so far...

The share price movements in small gold stocks have certainly not matched what one would expect from such rapidly rising gold prices.

(we get into why in a second, plus we have collated some gold and silver expert’s opinions on when precious metals stocks will start properly reacting to precious metals commodity price runs)

With gold looking like it wants to “go again” and many small ASX gold stocks not having delivered decent runs relative to the gold price run (yet), we think it’s time to add a couple of new gold stocks.

(a “Golden February”? Like our “Silver September”?)

We are looking for development stage gold stocks, with advanced projects, defined JORC resources, with potential to grow with drilling.

With share prices that still haven’t run yet (or not run much) - but will likely move if gold can convince the market it will be staying around these new all time highs.

(or even rise and stay even higher?)

Reply to this email if you know any small ASX gold stocks (at JORC resource or development stage) that haven’t run yet...

Today, we will also cover the “all commodities” bull run we think is starting, the cycling of major global capital into resources and precious metals miners...

...and might we even see “high risk” crypto/bitcoin capital cycling into a more traditional home of high risk junior resource stocks?

But first...

What the hell is gold anyway?

And why does with each passing day, it takes more and more money (“currency”) to buy an ounce of gold?

Is gold getting more expensive?

Nope.

Currency (your cash) is losing its purchasing power...

OR

More and more people BELIEVE their cash is losing its purchasing power.

So the gold price goes up in terms of the fiat currency in which it is measured.

Anyway...

We started really getting into gold in 2022.

(we then called gold as our main theme in 2023, a year too early in hindsight)

We read, researched and wrote a lot about gold and gold stocks for a couple of years.

and collated everything we had learned into this ebook we released in Feb 2025.

In this ebook we share what we have learned, including:

• Why gold and silver prices are surging
• A quick history of gold and silver
• What a “mega bubble” is - when the price of gold and silver reach “astronomical” levels due to severe inflation and currency debasement
• Is the world about to enter a gold and silver “mega bubble”?
• Six books we found helpful to understand the drivers behind gold and silver markets

(Download here)

We have updated the book with all the new gold (and silver) stocks we added in the last 12 months since it was published.

We’ve left the rest of it unchanged.

We think this thesis for gold and silver rising further is still very much in play.

We also think small cap gold and silver stocks haven’t even properly run... yet.

(we talk about it next)

Once again, let us know any undervalued gold stocks...

Silver and gold have delivered the best 12 month runs in commodities - when will junior gold and silver stocks deliver a proper bull run?

Even after the pull back from gold and silver in the last two days, both are still easily the best performing commodities over the last 12 months.

Many gold and silver stocks are up a few hundred per cent...

That's great but surely this should be more during a “generational gold and silver price run”.

Right?

Junior (smaller) silver and gold stocks usually lag early in a bull market because attention and capital go to the metals themselves and the big producers first.

Most new money goes into large producers and metal ETFs, because they offer immediate cash‐flow leverage to higher prices and are easier for institutions to buy.

(even us die-hard small cap investors were buying gold producer and silver producer ETFs in the earlier stages of the gold and silver runs, ASX:GDX, and NASDAQ:SLVR).

Normally well into the commodity price run, juniors are typically starved of capital and have little money to drill or progress their project

(not many would invest in a small silver stock during the 2023 general bear market when silver was ~$US22).

When a small precious metals stock finally manages to raise money in a rising gold/silver market, it can take many months to plan drilling, complete programs, get assays, and release results - the metal prices can move a long way before any value‐adding news hits the market.

(most of our silver companies raised money in September 2025. Many of our small gold stocks cashed themselves up around the same time, so we expect a lot of drill results incoming over the next 12 weeks)

Small gold and silver stocks also carry more risk, and will generally have a big “overhang” of trapped sellers.

Many small stocks lived through several years in the brutal 2022 to 2023 bear market where financing dried up.

A lot of long suffering investors were still underwater and likely used the early strength to sell and “get out even”, capping rallies in small precious metals stocks.

This is what we think has been happening over recent months with our small gold and silver stocks.

Yes they are up, some a lot, but there will be a lot of holders who would have been around for a long time, some for years and years, who are probably happy to lock in the gains.

OR people who got in more recently and are happy to bank profits because they think the precious metals runs have peaked.

(each to their own, for all we know THEY could be right)

We are still holding because we think another leg up in gold and silver is coming and this leg will really get the small companies firing.

(you can see our live holdings, updated daily, in each individual stock at any time by going to Trust Centre on our website, click our holdings - or go here)

The sweet spot for the “little guys” (like the stocks we Invest in) is often later in the cycle: when producers have already run, financing windows are open, and a junior has specific, near‐term catalysts (drill results, PFS/DFS, or potential M&A).

The above is our opinion on junior precious metals stocks, based on our research and experience.

It's not just us though, here’s a selection of comments from some well known precious metals experts (click the links to hear it directly from them).

Here’s what the experts are saying:

Michael Oliver (charting expert)

“If you are in the monetary metals, start to shift into the miners - they are going to beat gold”

“miners more than double their current relative value to gold just to bump what was the old low level.” (source)

Eric Sprott (Billionaire mining investor)

"The junior miners are still priced for $25 silver... when the metal is over $100, creating a valuation gap that could close violently to the upside as analysts and funds update their models." (source)

Rick Rule (Billionaire mining investor)

“The silver stocks have not kept pace with silver. And if the silver price just maintains at its current level, let's say it just maintains, let's say, in fact it doesn't maintain its current level. Let's say it declines, if that's the right phrase, to 75 or 80. The silver stocks, I think, are priced on a net present value basis discounting 40. So if the price holds at 75 or 80, I think those silver stocks rerate. By contrast, if the price of silver just goes steady free or I don't make any money in the silver and I make 50 or 100% in the silver stocks.” (source)

Willem Middlekoop (fund manager)

“If you look at the silver producers, the silver producers compared to the physical silver price, if you look at that ratio, silver stocks are as cheap now as at the end of 2015, which was the bottom of the market. So it's still early days and I think many of these companies still have a lot of room to run and especially ounces in the ground will need to revalue to much higher levels. So I wouldn't be surprised to see this whole market go up another 3x or 5x and of course you can get corrections along the way 30 maybe 40% in the stocks but every correction is a buying opportunity.” (source)

Peter Schiff (fund manager and notorious gold bug)

"Gold mining stocks are cheap if gold's at 4,800. Now, they're cheaper at 5,300, which is where we are. But at some point, investors are going to notice this. The sellers are going to be gone from the mining stocks and they're going to take off." (source)

Chris Vermeulen

"You would think with gold hitting all time highs and silver screaming higher, we would be seeing the miners moving up quite significantly—and they're really not... It's primed and ready for a fairly significant run to the upside." (source)

It also looks to us like gold and silver stocks haven’t really priced in higher underlying gold and silver prices.

We think one catalyst for that re-rating will be when the market sees the earnings reports from the large producers.

And (according to Michael Oliver) the first earnings reports for the quarter that silver spent well above US$50 are coming in early February - this should be the first phase.

(listen to these comments here)

Then earnings season for the March quarter where the producers sold silver at US$100+ and gold at US$5,000+ should trigger big runs in miners.

The “every commodity” bull run - Are we finally seeing the US capital markets rotate into metals and mining?

We came across the below article in the Financial Times - one of the first where mainstream media is calling out metals and mining as being an outperforming sector.

(source)

There were a few interesting quotes in this article.

First this one on the rotation out of USD into commodities:

And then this one on just how early we are into that rotation:

We’ve been writing for a while about our view on a rotation of tech capital into metals and mining.

(in the USA tech and the "Magnificent 7” tech mega caps has been hoovering up the lion's share of capital over the last 15 years)

There’s an image we often return to showing the scale of capital in NVIDIA vs the biggest mining companies in the world.

Here it is again:

(Source, Mining.com October 28, 2024 all figures are in USD)

Our view has been that capital would eventually start to come out of that big green ball and into mining companies.

And now in the first month of 2026 it looks like the early stages of that rotation has started...

One of the most well known tech investors - billionaire venture capitalist, Chamath Palihapitiya - called copper his best trade idea for 2026. (source)

So what will that rotation of capital mean for markets?

Our view is that the big fund managers coming into the space will only directly impact the biggest stocks in the metals and mining space.

(a US$100BN fund can only really write cheques to companies with market caps in the multi-billions)

So we expect to see valuations of the big miners grow...

Which will inevitably flow through into more M&A in the mid cap space and then eventually bigger valuations for the micro caps from all the capital that gets pumped back into the markets by the guys who were in mid-caps/developers.

Essentially like a funnel where capital comes in from the top and eventually makes its way down (in smaller size) to the bottom.

BUT that doesn’t mean we won't see a short term spike in the junior end of the market...

We think there is another giant pool of capital that is sitting on the sidelines, watching with intent...

And we are already starting to see signs that it may be about to enter the micro cap space (memes incoming in a second).

It's the capital chasing risky 1,000% gains that shunned small resource stocks and went into crypto markets...

Crypto markets are structurally the most speculative markets in the world.

Memecoins like Fartcoin, Dogecoin (made as a joke) are (or once were) worth billions of dollars.

The primary reason for their worth is because traders see the markets as highly volatile and want to have exposure to volatility.

I.e the traders want a coin that can go up 500% in a few months. They aren’t so much interested in the 10-20-30% moves that come from established markets.

Before crypto came along, early stage resource stocks (plus general micro caps and “penny dreadfuls”) was where punters would turn to for this kind of high risk action.

And if the “crypto bros” come looking for gold/silver exposure with extreme volatility, they will inevitably find themselves looking at junior gold/silver miners/explorers...

IF we are right, we could see some of that speculative crypto money come into junior gold and silver stocks?

We have already started seeing bitcoin influencers talk about silver on X.

Physical gold held against a backdrop Lambo dashboards on Instagram was one of the signals for us that this rotation may be starting (at least rotation of attention):

And a bunch of other memes we keep seeing pop up on X from known crypto influencers:

(source)

(source)

In summary...

Based on the last month, we expect a volatile week for precious metals coming up.

Some big up days, and some big down days.

But keeping in mind that both gold and silver are currently still higher than they ended in 2025.

And volatility is all part of price discovery.

It still feels like there will be many twists and turns in the precious metals story over the coming years.

See you next week and have a great weekend

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