Time’s up: Is TTM about to get taken over? Good time to have released “spectacular” drill results with 38.5m @ ~3g/t gold

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 1,033,443 TTM Shares at the time of publishing this article. The Company has been engaged by TTM to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in TTM over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any forward-looking statements are uncertain and not a guaranteed outcome.

Titan Minerals (ASX:TTM) already has a 3.1M ounce gold and 22M ounce silver mineral resource estimate.

And this morning TTM announced “spectacular” drill results, including a peak 38.5m, 3g/t gold hit. (source)

A resource update that includes all of TTM’s new drilling is due late this quarter.

(TTM’s been drilling the asset for over a year so we are hoping its a material upgrade to it’s already huge gold and silver resource estimate)

Today is also the end of the “90-day exclusivity period for a corporate transaction” with TTM’s biggest and newest shareholder US$5.2BN Lingbao.

According to today’s announcement, TTM and Lingbao are currently in “advanced discussions” for a “corporate transaction” so we could see an update on a deal soon...

So... Gold and silver BOTH hit new all-time highs overnight.

(yep, again)

Spectacular new drill results today to feed into TTM’s resource upgrade this quarter AND the exclusivity period has just ticked over on Lingbao’s active corporate transaction discussions with TTM....

Oh and copper is also at all time highs, and running right now... TTM also has a copper project with a US$120M joint venture with Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting.

(more on the assets in a second)

On October 15th last year, the ~US$5.2BN Chinese gold producer Lingbao Gold International invested US$10M cash into our TTM.

That investment was for ~9% of TTM, and was completed at 59c/share - a 33% premium to the 30 day VWAP at the time.

That investment also gave Lingbao a 90 day exclusivity period to conduct further due diligence and for the companies to negotiate terms for a potential project level transaction for TTM’s Dynasty Gold Project.

That deal was announced 91 days ago.

Since October 15th, we have noticed the wording of TTM’s announcements evolve to indicate that there could be a deal for all of TTM’s projects in Ecuador - not just the Dynasty project that is the subject of the exclusivity period.

Here is what TTM said in today’s announcement:

(source)

TTM’s share price has also been steadily increasing over the last 90 days... the market is suspecting something must be going on...

Given the 90 day exclusivity period has now officially passed, we think this means that any day now, a firm offer could be on the table for all of TTM’s Ecuadorian gold, silver and copper assets.

Whatever offer comes from the “Advanced discussions” we would hope it is at a premium to the current market price of TTM - just like that strategic investment was back in October.

(no guarantees of course, this is just our speculation based on the announcements we have read to date and an analysis of past M&A deals)

As we wait for news on a firm offer for TTM, the company continues to release strong drill results which indicate the quality of the Dynasty asset.

(source)

If these weren’t infill results we would be talking about a seriously material new discovery.

TTM already has a mineral resource estimate of 3.1M ounce gold and 22M ounce silver.

A resource update is due late this quarter - we expect this should be a decent upgrade...

There’s probably no better time to be sitting down negotiating a deal on TTM’s projects too.

Gold and silver hit new all-time highs yesterday.

Both precious metals are running hard right now.

Oh and copper is also at all time highs, and running right now...

AND TTM has exposure to all three (gold, silver and copper):

It’s almost the exact macro setup we could have hoped for in our Investment in TTM - especially with respect to a corporate deal getting done...

We’ve been Invested in TTM since 2020, and covered Lingbao’s initial investment into TTM in detail in October last year - you can read that here.

In the last 90 days, TTM’s share price has almost doubled.

Lingbao invested US$10M into TTM and signed an exclusivity deed to negotiate a buyout on one of TTM’s FOUR projects in Ecuador (more on the assets TTM owns in a second).

Just last week TTM confirmed Lingbao had completed its second site visit, where TTM stated that both of “the companies are currently working towards a potential corporate transaction”. (source)

That exclusivity deed was for a ~90 day period - which means we should be toward the end of that exclusivity period now - and a deal could be getting due any day now.

The thing that HAS changed though is that now, whatever deal is being negotiated appears to be for all of TTM’s assets in Ecuador.

Here is what TTM had in today’s announcement:

(source)

Lingbao is much bigger than TTM, and definitely has the firepower to do a deal that stacks up for TTM shareholders.

Lingbao is worth ~$5.2BN, is a Chinese SOE, and recently raised ~A$227M (via a convertible bond raise) to spend on (in their own words) “mergers and acquisitions opportunities for overseas high quality gold mining assets”. (Source)

Lingbao has five gold mines, plus refining and smelting facilities around the world.

The end result - we could be days away from some sort of corporate transaction in TTM...

Whatever it looks like, the deal will need to stack up for TTM shareholders.

We first Invested in TTM back in July 2020 - just after the company completed the takeover of TSX listed Core Gold and properly entered Ecuador.

So we might be part of the register that saw the assets through for over 6 years and eventually into what we hope is exactly what TTM said in today’s announcement:

A realisation of “the intrinsic value” of TTM’s “portfolio of gold-silver and copper Ecuadorian assets”.

TTM has four assets in southern Ecuador including:

• The Dynasty Gold Project which is TTM’s most advanced asset and hosts 3.1M ounces of gold and 22M ounces of silver (Mineral Resource Estimate - getting updated this quarter).
• The Linderos copper project. Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting is earning up to a 80% stake in the project in exchange for US$2M cash plus US$120M in exploration spend.

(A 25,000m drilling campaign is currently taking place here source)

And

• Two earlier stage copper assets where we think TTM could do similar to the deal done with Gina (unless Lingbao buys them in the coming days).

Today’s drill results - another reminder of the quality of the asset

TTM put out a set of results today from its Dynasty asset - which reminded us of the quality of why TTM’s project has a 3.1M ounce gold and 22M ounce silver resource.

(If these weren’t infill results we would be talking about a seriously material new discovery)

(source)

Interestingly, we got a pretty good look at the areas that TTM’s been drilling out and that sit outside of the current resource too.

Hopefully all of that is converted into resources and grows Dynasty closer to that 5M ounce gold resource TTM has been targeting.

Here are the hits that sit outside of the current resource:

(source)

And here is the exploration upside on Dynasty more broadly:

(source)

Hopefully whatever deal is offered by Lingbao, is considering that resource upgrade coming by the end of this quarter... and all of the exploration upside at Dynasty.

AND the inherent value in that copper JV with Hancock Prospecting...

TTM gets to keep 20% of the project, and is free carried for US$120M of exploration spend...

Just extrapolating that exploration spend TTM’s 20% would be valued at ~US$30M...

The M&A landscape in Ecuador

TTM’s assets are in Ecuador, a region that has recently seen a lot of deal making activity.

(especially by the Chinese, who love a bit of gold and critical metals like copper)

Back in early 2024 SolGold committed to invest US$3.2BN deal for its Cascabel copper-gold project.

That SolGold deal was the biggest ever mining investment commitment in Ecuador’s history AND it was completely separate to the ~US$311M SolGold had committed to previously.

(Source)

Gina Rinehart, who at Hancock Prospecting, controls one of the world’s biggest private mining groups (& TTM’s joint venture partner at Linderos) also made a big push into Ecuador.

Before the deal with TTM, Gina invested US$120 million for a 49% stake in six different projects, partnering with Ecuador’s national mining company, ENAMI (51%).

Then:

• In June 2025 Hong Kong listed CMOC bought Lumina Gold for US$421M, and (source)
• And in early 2025 Hong Kong listed JiangXi Copper upped their stake in SolGold at a premium to the market price at the time and SolGold’s share price has re-rated by over 300% since then. (source)

A lot has changed since both those deals got done... gold prices are up by over 30% and the silver price by more than 50% and copper prices are up ~25%.

Everyone entering Ecuador is looking to repeat the $31BN Lundin Gold playbook and build a cornerstone asset that operates for decades... like the Fruta Del Norte mine owned by Lundin.

Fruta Del Norte is one of the highest grade gold mines in the world and is operating in Ecuador right now.

It weighs in at 8.5 million ounces of gold and 12.4 million ounces of silver.

It's Lundin Gold’s trophy asset... the company was essentially built off the back of its success at Fruta Del Norte.

Back in 2016, when the project was in the feasibility study stage, Lundin’s share price was less than CAD$5 per share.

Since then, Lundin has raised billions of dollars, built its project and is producing almost half a million ounces of gold per annum.

Now Lundin Gold’s share price is CAD$120.45 per share and it has a market cap of ~A$31BN.

(Source)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Here is where Lundin's Fruta Del Norte sits relative to TTM’s assets:

(Source)

Fruta del Norte isn't even the biggest asset in the neighbourhood - that crown goes to Cangrejos to the north of TTM’s assets.

Cangrejos has 17 million ounces of gold, 23 million ounces of silver, and 11 Mt of copper.

Both giants paint the upside picture for TTM and Lingbao.

What’s next for TTM?

More drilling results at Dynasty 🔄

Resource upgrade/update at Dynasty 🔲

TTM is working towards a resource upgrade on its project.

It could be as high as 5 million ounces of gold based on past TTM announcements...

The resource upgrade is expected this quarter.

More drilling at the Linderos Copper project (Gina JV) 🔄

The JV with Hancock Prospecting recently completed the second stage of the earn-in agreement AND kicked off exploration under the third phase of the deal:

(Source)

What are the risks?

With TTM actively drilling right now, and with the exclusivity deed signed with Lingbao the two keys risks in the short term to TTM’s share price are “Exploration Risk” and “Deal Risk”.

If TTM is unable to discover more gold over its Dynasty project and publishes a resource upgrade lower than market expectations, it could have a negative impact on the share price.

Poor drill results from the Hanrine JV could also be negative for TTM’s share price, especially if Hanrine chooses not to proceed with the remainder of the JV earn-in stages.

(Hanrine is the fully owned subsidiary of Gina Rinehart's Hancock prospecting)

TTM also kicked off geophysical surveys on its projects. It’s possible those surveys find nothing of interest which would again be below market expectations and could impact TTM’s share price negatively.

Exploration / Drilling risk

There is no guarantee that TTM’s extensional drilling programs will be successful and TTM may fail to uncover enough economic mineralisation to justify the expense.

Source: “What could go wrong” - TTM Investment Memo 29 May 2024

There is also an element of deal risk now given the exclusivity deed signed with Lingbao.

IF the market starts re-rating TTM higher expecting a new deal to get done on the companies assets there could be an expectation in the market for M&A.

M&A deals can take a lot longer than anyone expects and there is never any guarantee that discussions conclude in a binding deal.

IF no deals are done inside the next 90-180 days and TTM’s share price runs, expecting a deal to get done, the TTM share price could re-rate lower as expectations unwind.

Other risks

Like any stock market investment, investing in TTM carries a range of risks which may affect the value of the company, some of which cannot be predicted (this is the nature of risks). Here we aim to identify a few more risks.

TTM’s Dynasty Gold Project and Linderos Copper Project are pre-development and exploration-stage assets.

There is a risk that the projects do not progress as planned, that resource upgrades do not meet market expectations, or that development takes longer and costs more than anticipated.

TTM’s share price is highly leveraged to the price of gold, silver, and copper. Sustained declines in any of these commodity prices could materially impact project economics, investor sentiment, and the company’s market valuation.

TTM’s projects are located in Ecuador, which, while increasingly attractive for mining, may still carry jurisdictional, regulatory, and permitting risks. Local environmental approvals, changes in legislation, or political instability could delay or impact operations.

The company remains reliant on the capital markets and strategic partners to fund exploration and development. Any future equity or debt funding may dilute existing shareholders or be subject to less favourable terms.

Finally, TTM’s valuation could already reflect some of the anticipated upside from gold, silver, and copper price strength, as well as potential corporate transactions. Expectations may not be realised, and investors should consider the possibility of share price volatility.

Investors should carefully consider these risks and seek professional advice tailored to their personal circumstances before investing.

Our TTM Investment Memo

Our Investment Memo provides a short, high-level summary of our reasons for Investing.

We use this memo to track the progress of all our Investments over time.

Click here to read our TTM Investment Memo where you will find:

• What does TTM do?
• The macro theme for TTM
• Our TTM Big Bet
• What we want to see TTM achieve
• Why we are Invested in TTM
• The key risks to our Investment Thesis
• Our Investment Plan