JBY - Our 2025 Small Cap Pick of the Year - USA gold and silver - now to list on US stock exchange...

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 1,952,950 JBY Shares and the company's staff own 64,257 JBY Shares at the time of publishing this article. The Company has been engaged by JBY to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in JBY over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

The silver price just broke through its 1980 highs...

Silver hit US$49.54 per ounce overnight - less than 40c off its all time high from 2011.

We are now less than a 1% move away from official “all time highs” in silver...

If it breaks US$50/oz and stays above that level the silver price will officially be in uncharted territory (which we assume will take silver stocks with it).

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Meanwhile gold is currently at all time highs, already in uncharted territory...

Our 2025 Small Cap Pick of The Year James Bay Minerals (ASX: JBY), recently announced the acquisition of a high grade primary silver project in the US...

(This is in addition to its development-stage gold asset also in the US - more on that below)

Yesterday JBY announced plans to list on a US OTC exchange, to attract more US investors to the stock.

JBY’s new silver project has already produced ~35 million ounces of silver over its history...

The project has ~$150M in existing project infrastructure including a processing plant that was built back in 2011.

JBY is aiming to bring the project back into production (hopefully at the same time as the silver price rips into uncharted territory).

(not a guarantee)

(Source)

JBY also owns 100% of a 1.37M ounce gold JORC resource (estimate) next door to N.G.M (this is a giant gold mine complex owned in a JV between $87BN Barrick and $142BN Newmont).

With the gold price already in uncharted territory...

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

.... We think JBY’s gold project alone, with a 1.37M ounce JORC resource estimate, justifies its current market cap of ~$132M (fully diluted for the recent $30M capital raise).

Especially in the current market where gold and silver rock chips in the US are enough to push junior explorer market caps to $30-40M.

And more advanced gold projects like Dateline Resources in California are being valued at $2BN+.

And as of last week, JBY has added an advanced silver project...

So JBY has an advanced silver project and a big gold JORC resource across two projects both inside US borders.

Just as gold and silver start to get some mainstream media recognition in the US...

And North American funds are scrambling for more exposure...

(We saw that interest in JBY’s recent $30M capital raise which had “Strong demand from North American institutions”)

(Source)

JBY has already traded as high as ~40% up on the capital raise price - which is always a good sign post a big capital raise.

(Usually, it means people didn’t get a big enough allocation in the capital raise and are happy to be buying at a premium on the market)

Clearly, the market is liking JBY’s acquisition of a high grade 17.5M ounce silver asset in Texas.

(and probably its 1.37M ounce gold project in Nevada too).

We did too, that’s why we made JBY our 2025 Small Cap Pick of the Year last week - check out the full deep dive note here.

Gold and silver being listed as critical minerals? Just as JBY goes for a US listing

Yesterday, JBY announced one more piece of the puzzle to capture all of that US attention (and hopefully capital).

JBY kicked off the process for a listing on an US OTC (Over the Counter) market...

... JBY also said the OTC listing would be used as a stepping stone for a potential future US exchange listing...

Which to us sounds like it might include bigger and more liquid markets such as the NYSE and the NASDAQ.

OTC listings are definitely having an impact on ASX small cap share prices these days.

Especially when the company has assets based in the US...

Two of our US based Investments Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) and Resolution Minerals (ASX: RML), recently both hit new all time highs off increased volumes on the OTC.

(past performance is not an indicator of future performance)

JBY’s push to get in front of US eyeballs (and wallets) might be happening at the perfect time too.

Just as gold and silver start to get some mainstream media recognition...

Especially after Trump signed an Executive Order putting gold in the same basket as other critical minerals, in an effort to increase onshore USA production.

And it looks like silver might soon be classified as a “critical mineral” in the US.

On the 25th of August, the US Department of the Interior (DOI) released a “draft 2025 list of critical minerals” with silver being recommended for inclusion in the 2025 critical minerals list.

This list will guide federal US strategy, investment and permitting decisions...

(Source)

Catalysts coming for JBY in the next 3-6 months:

Over the next 3-6 months we are looking forward to the following across JBY’s two assets:

1. Drilling at the company’s silver project in Texas - JBY said drilling would start this side of Christmas. It’s going for an upgrade to the project’s high grade 17.5M ounce silver (non-JORC, estimated) resource
2. Resource upgrades on JBY’s 1.37M ounce gold project in Nevada - JBY spent most of this year drilling this project, and with the big run up in the gold price, we are hoping that a resource upgrade surprises the market to the upside.

We think JBY could do well over the coming months (as long as silver and gold prices behave)...

10 reasons why we Increased our Investment in JBY - and made it our 2025 Small Cap Pick of the Year:

As mentioned earlier, last week we announced JBY as our 2025 Small Cap Pick Of The Year.

Check out that full note here: Our 2025 Next Investors Small Cap Pick of the Year: James Bay Minerals (ASX: JBY)

Below is a quick overview of the reasons why:

1. JBY’s silver project has an estimated 17.57M ounces at very high grades (289g/t)

JBY’s silver project in Texas has a 17.5M ounce foreign resource estimate at an average silver grade of 289g/t.

Those grades are on par with some of the highest-grade operating mines in this part of the world.

For context - $9BN First Majestic Silver’s operating La Encantada mine which is just over the US/Mexico border has a 15.3M ounce resource with average silver grades of 208g/t.

2. JBY’s silver project has ~A$150M of existing project infrastructure

JBY’s project has A$150M+ in infrastructure, including mine shafts, a 3,000tpd processing plant and even a power substation.

The project is also partially permitted.

3. We think JBY’s gold project backstops its current valuation

JBY has a 1.37M ounce (estimate) gold project next door to N.G.M’s (Barrick and Newmont JV) Phoenix pit in Nevada - one of the biggest gold mines in the world.

At today’s gold prices, we think that gold resource estimate can grow, and based on current numbers, it backstops JBY’s valuation.

(Check out our site visit note on the gold asset here: JBY is surrounded by the one of the world’s biggest gold mines - here’s what we saw on site)

UPDATE: JBY has traded well above its capital raise price and will be capped at ~$130M (fully diluted). Given where gold and silver prices are trading and US junior explorer valuations trading strongly, we still think JBY’s market cap has room to move higher from here.

(no guarantees of course)

4. We like gold and silver (especially in the US)

Gold is currently trading at all time highs (US$3,850 per ounce), and we think it could continue running against a backdrop of ever increasing debt and fiat currency depreciation.

We also think silver will follow gold and run to new all time highs.. Silver is currently at 14 year highs (US$47 per ounce).

(No guarantees of course - commodity prices are hard to predict and can go down as well as up.)

UPDATE: Gold is at new all time highs again... overnight, silver broke through its 1980 highs clipping US$49.54 per ounce... Silver is now less than a 1% move away from hitting official new all time highs.

(past performance is not an indicator of future performance)

5. JBY has the same team and backers as our 2024 Small Cap Pick of the Year SS1

Board, management, corporate advisors and top 20 shareholders are very similar across JBY and SS1 (our 2024 Small Cap Pick of the Year that IPO’d at 20c and hit over $1.18 within nine months).

We are backing the same group to deliver more wins with JBY.

(past performance is not an indicator of future performance.)

6. Nevada/Texas are some of the best jurisdictions for mining assets

JBY’s two main assets are now in Nevada and Texas, USA.

Nevada was ranked as the best mining jurisdiction in the world in 2022 by the Fraser Institute and has ranked in the top 3 every year for the past 10 years.

Texas is among the most business friendly states in the US - just ask Elon Musk.

7. JBY’s gold project is surrounded by low cost heap leach mines on similar geology

JBY’s gold project is surrounded by some of the lowest cost gold mining operations in the world. Barrick and Nemont’s Nevada Gold Mines JV has pits operating with AISC (all in sustaining cost) to produce at below ~US$1,000 per ounce.

8. JBY’s gold project had a previous Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) completed

JBY’s gold project had a PEA completed in 2022 which showed 32,050 ounces of gold per year for 6 years at an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,078 per ounce.

By our back of the napkin calculations, that is US$121M in revenues per year, assuming a US$3,800 ounce gold (without considering an upgrade to the project’s resource since then).

(of course we are not financial analysts here - we are ignoring all costs in the above calculation and any discount on the future value of money.)

9. JBY is a well-known retail stock with potential to re-rate

JBY appears to have a large retail following and the potential for share price re-rates on good news.

The company promotes well, it was a hot IPO back in September of 2023, when James Bay lithium stocks were popular amongst investors and right before the lithium sentiment crash.

It's been responding to newsflow on its gold asset too.

As a result, we think that if the company can deliver material news on its silver and gold projects, there will be enough eyeballs on the stock for the share price to re-rate.

UPDATE: We have seen further evidence of this given how the company traded after news of the silver acquisition was made.

10. JBY has protected its capital structure well over the years.

Even after today’s $30M capital raise and the silver project being acquired, JBY will have only ~145M shares on issue and no options overhang.

We have seen a similar style clean structure for SS1 which has so far worked out well for investors.

A clean structure with no options overhang allows for the company’s share price to rise off the back of strong positive news.

Ultimately, we think the big re-rate will happen when JBY has both its gold and silver assets ready to developed/restarted which forms the basis for our JBY Big Bet:

Our JBY Big Bet:

“We want to see JBY drill, extend and grow the resources on both its gold and silver projects to the point of the projects being development ready (or to the point of a major buying out the assets). At that point, we hope to see JBY’s market cap trade at $750M+”

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, market risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our JBY Investment Memo.

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

What’s next for JBY’s silver project in Texas?

🔄 Drilling to increase the projects 17.5M ounce foreign resource

JBY plans to start drilling the projects in “late 2025” - so before the end of the year.

The project has over 4km of outcropping east-west that is largely untested and there is known mineralisation that sits outside of the current resource estimate.

JBY plans to focus the next ~12 months on drilling out the project:

We also want to see JBY test the project for other minerals... despite the gold production historically, none of the old drillcore was assayed for gold.

(Who knows what else JBY could find when those re-assays are done - remember what this team did at SS1 when they re-assayed historical silver drill cores for antimony...)

Here is what we can expect to see from JBY on their new silver asset over the next ~12 months:

(Source)

What’s next for JBY’s gold project in Nevada?

🔄 Resource upgrade on JBY’s 1.37M ounce gold project.

At the moment, the resource on this project is split 384k ounces gold (Shallow resource) and 984k ounces gold (Deep resource) (JORC resource estimates).

Since the start of the year, JBY has been drilling out the shallow resource and has already extended the mineralisation along strike to the east:

(Source)

We are hoping all of that new drilling means JBY can push up its resource closer to that 2M ounce mark.

JBY has also flagged potential assay results from old deep diamond drillcores that were never tested for gold.

These should give us some more information on whether or not there is gold in between JBY’s shallow and deep resources:

(Source)

Over the next 3-6 months, on this project we want to see JBY deliver:

• 🔄 Resource upgrades on the shallow and deeper parts of its resource
• 🔄 Re-assay of historic diamond drillcore
• 🔲 Start feasibility studies and permitting on a development scenario

What are the risks?

In the short term the key risks to our JBY Investment Thesis are “exploration risk” and “Commodity price risk”.

Exploration risk because JBY plans to drill both its gold and silver assets before the end of the year. Any poor results from the drill programs could lead to a sell off in the company's share price.

Commodity price is also a risk here because gold is trading at all time highs and silver near its all time highs.

Any pullback in either commodity price could lead to a sell off in JBY’s share price.

Commodity price risk

The performance of commodity stocks are often closely linked to the value of the underlying commodities they are seeking to extract. Should gold or silver prices fall, this could hurt JBY’s share price. We have already seen this happen with the lithium price and what it meant for JBY’s Canadian lithium assets in the past.

Source: “What could go wrong?” - JBY Investment Memo 2 October 2025

Other risks

Like any stock market investment, investing in JBY carries a variety of risks which may affect the value of the company, some of which cannot be predicted (this is the nature of risks).

Here we aim to identify a few more risks.

JBY is still an exploration and development company. While it has acquired advanced silver and gold projects in the US, there is no guarantee that it will discover economically viable mineralisation, or that the projects will be successfully taken into production.

The company is also sensitive to time delays. Drilling, permitting, and mine restart studies may not occur on schedule. Significant delays could reduce market interest, increase cash burn, and force JBY to raise capital under potentially dilutive conditions.

JBY is highly reliant on capital markets to fund ongoing exploration and development. Any future capital raises could dilute existing shareholders.

Commodity price movements also pose a risk. The economics of JBY’s silver and gold projects are exposed to fluctuations in market prices. A sustained drop in silver or gold prices could materially impact project viability and the company’s valuation.

Finally, broader market and sector conditions could negatively impact JBY’s share price, even if the company continues to make operational progress.

Investors should carefully consider these risks and seek professional advice tailored to their personal circumstances before investing.

Our JBY Investment Memo

You can read our JBY Investment Memo in the link below. We use this memo to track the progress of all our Investments over time.

Our JBY Investment Memo covers:

• What does JBY do?
• The macro theme for JBY
• Our JBY Big Bet
• What we want to see JBY achieve
• Why we are Invested in JBY
• The key risks to our Investment Thesis
• Our Investment Plan