Boom Follows Crash, What’s Next for Small Stocks?

Published 13-APR-2025 10:03 A.M.

7 minute read

Global markets crash... then boom. More uncertainty ahead? What does it mean for small stocks? Gold up, small gold stocks not up... yet.

Read our Saturday Weekender note here

Our ‘Quick Takes’ on news from our Investments

Our take on the ONE investor briefing hosted by Caledonia Investments in Sydney last week.
EXR signed a farm-out agreement for one of its gas projects in QLD - the deal will free carry EXR on a well to be drilled in Q3 of 2025.
PUR produced its first batch of lithium carbonate from its pilot plant in Argentina.
GTR’s scoping study for its US uranium project in Wyoming is now due THIS quarter.
MNB posted pictures from construction works at its phosphate fertiliser project in Angola.
Argonaut published a research report on KAU with a price target of 43c.
JBY presented at the Resources Rising Stars “Gather Round” conference.
SS1 presented at the Resources Rising Stars “Gather Round” conference.

Deep dive notes we wrote this week:

SLM set to drill for new copper discovery in Peru

Is it time for another ASX micro cap stock to make a new copper discovery?

Our Investment SLM is about to start drilling with the goal of making a new copper discovery in Peru.

It just received some long-awaited approvals to begin drilling on one of its key targets.

A 7,500m diamond drilling campaign is due to begin ‘imminently’.

A discovery could significantly re-rate SLM over the coming weeks and months - keep scrolling to see what could happen to the share price...

(no guarantees of a successful discovery of course)

A second drill permit is expected imminently for another key target, and drilling there will kick off as soon as the permit is granted.

So two big shots on goal for a potential company making copper discovery from a micro cap stock over the coming weeks...

CND publishes multi-billion barrel prospective resource

3 billion barrels of oil...

That's the size of CND’s unrisked prospective oil resource across five prospects that was released.

Is this now one of the biggest sets of offshore oil exploration prospects on the ASX?

In one of the smallest capped explorers?

We think it might be...

We think that establishing such a large, multi-billion barrel prospective resource should re-rate the stock upwards as the market prices it in.

Especially if a farm-in to drill is announced...

US state set to remove sales tax on lithium production. $6M capped PFE to benefit?

Both energy supermajors and the US government share a clear goal to build up a large lithium industry in the USA.

Trump recently signed an Executive Order seeking to stimulate the USA’s local critical minerals supply chain.

The US Department of Energy is handing out grants worth hundreds of millions of dollars to lithium companies...

China is threatening to ban the export of lithium processing technology.

And we haven't even started talking about the escalating tariff related trade wars between China and the USA...

The USA lithium industry is mainly focussed on one part of the country - the Smackover region in the state of Arkansas.

The Smackover is teeming with investments from global energy giants seeking to use Direct Lithium Extraction to produce the battery metal from its high grade lithium brines...

We are Invested in the only micro cap ASX listed company with acreage in the Smackover in Arkansas... PFE.

Second drill rig ready to target underexplored area of MTH’s “district scale” gold-silver project

MTH has announced a second drill rig has started drilling into a new never before tested gold and silver target...

Just as the gold price soared to yet another brand new ALL TIME high (ever) of US$3,200/oz this week.

If “Target 2” is anything like “Target 1”, it could be a big couple of months for our gold and silver Investment MTH.

As of this week, for the first time ever, MTH is drilling new regional targets - chasing new discoveries.

A new discovery could lead to step-change increases in MTH’s gold and silver resource base.

Macro News - What we are reading & listening to 📰

Battery Metals:

ION, PUR, TYX, PFE, MAN, EMN

EU Unveils $13.2 Billion Investment Package for Central Asia (Caspian News)

The EU announced a $13.2B investment in Central Asia for infrastructure, minerals, and digitalisation.
The EU aims to create local value chains and strengthen its economic ties with the region.

US discusses tariffs, critical minerals with Pakistan (Mining.com)

US and Pakistan discussed tariffs, trade, immigration, and critical minerals during a call between Rubio and Dar.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed interest in expanding US-Pakistan ties, especially in critical minerals, amid tariff tensions.

Bulks:

GEN, CAY

Simandou 'on-track' for first production (Australian Resources & Investment)

Rio Tinto's Simandou project in Guinea is on track for first iron ore production by the end of 2025.
CEO Jakob Stausholm highlighted the complexity of projects like Simandou, Oyu Tolgoi, and Jadar, with a focus on growth despite challenges.

Gold:

MTH, SS1, JBY, TTM, KAU, MTH, BPM

China’s Central Bank Buys Gold for Fifth Month as Prices Rally (Bloomberg)

China’s central bank added gold to its reserves for the fifth consecutive month in March, amid global trade and geopolitical uncertainty.
Central banks globally are boosting gold holdings as a hedge, with gold prices reaching a record above $3,100 per ounce.

How to Invest in Gold, From ETFs to Jewelry (Bloomberg)

Gold surged past $3,100 an ounce in March 2025, with forecasts predicting further gains, making it a hedge amid market volatility.
Investors can gain exposure to gold through physical bullion, ETFs, or gold-mining stocks, each with distinct risks and benefits.

Rare Earths:

SGQ

China Says Rare Earth Export Curb Won’t Hurt Global Supply Chain (Bloomberg)

China asserts that its rare earth export controls will not disrupt global supply chains or industrial stability.
The Chinese government emphasises that trade will remain unaffected as long as companies avoid actions harming China’s interests.

China has a weapon that could hurt America: rare-earth exports (The Economist)

China’s restrictions on rare earth exports could disrupt global supply, especially for heavy rare earths critical to AI, wind turbines, and defense.
A potential ban would harm the US, driving up prices and forcing a years-long effort to establish alternative supply chains.

Biotechs:

IIQ, DXB, NTI, EMD, ALA

‘Shift the dial’: WA biotechs urge State Government to introduce R&D top-up matching scheme (The West Australian)

WA biotech leaders are calling on the State Government to match the Federal R&D tax incentive with a local rebate to attract and retain innovation.
The proposed scheme could offer up to 43.5% extra rebate on R&D spend in WA, boosting the state’s appeal as a biotech hub.

Australian Energy:

EXR

Australia Election: A $20 Billion Gas Plant Exposes Australia’s Energy Conundrum (Bloomberg)

The Albanese government delayed a decision on extending the North West Shelf LNG project, a move that could define Australia's energy future and spark political backlash.
The project pits climate goals against economic reliance on fossil fuels, highlighting the tough choices facing a top global gas exporter.

What else we are watching and listening to

The Fiat System is Failing

Why gold’s breakout is the ultimate warning signal
How the Federal Reserve system is at a breaking point
Gold vs. Bitcoin: competition or complement?
Why gold equities are misunderstood — and undervalued

ALL IN (great episode this week): The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein.

Around the 36 minute mark Chamath breaks down the three key areas of domestic production and key supply chains that the US need to focus on:

Infrastructure related to AI (including chips and semiconductor manufacturing)
Energy (including nat gas, fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables)
Critical Minerals (particularly those in relation to advanced material science and defence)
Pharmaceuticals (drugs need to be developed in the US to look after its own industry).

It's an altogether great discussion that is worth a listen.

Socials:

Bye for now.

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