3 Ways Fund Managers Invest in Small Caps
PUBLISHED: 02-05-2022 14:34 p.m.
9 minute read
At Next Investors, we hold long term positions in small cap companies led by top management teams that provide exposure to macro themes we think will do well in the future.
Our diversified portfolio consists of more than 20 investments in early stage companies, most with market capitalisations below $25M.
We invest with the view that two or three of these will achieve success and deliver an outsized return, thereby outweighing any companies that fail.
We hold these positions over three to five years while the company executes its plans and we seek to take some profit along the way as the share price (hopefully) re-rates higher.
For these positions, we target 1,000% gains over the long term.
In our experience, the best place to achieve 1,000% returns is by investing in higher risk, early stage companies, then holding a long term position as they work to achieve their objectives and increase “certainty” around their business.
There will be some failures along the way, but that’s part of the risk at this end of the market.
As a successful company progresses through its development stages, the following tends to occur in time:
- Investors with a lower risk profile will enter as certainty increases
- Daily trading volumes increase as more people learn about the company
- The share price sustainably re-rates higher and the company’s market cap increases
...and a $25M company (hopefully) becomes a $100M+ company.
Lowered investment risk, increased market cap, and higher trading volumes are very important progress points for an early stage company as this allows for professional fund managers and institutional investors with stricter mandates to invest.
As early stage investors, one of our key objectives is to hold an investment as it successfully executes its plan until deemed “investable” by professional fund managers.
At that point the investment is likely to attract larger pools of capital from professional fund managers. These are usually very long term holders, so having them on register underpins the new higher market cap (and share price).
These fund managers want to hold a position while the company executes more objectives and further de-risks, going from say a $100M to a $500M market cap, which will then attract capital from even bigger, later stage professional fund managers.
So why don’t professional fund managers typically invest in the early stage companies that we invest in?
These fund managers often rely on a company being “more established”, which generally translates into companies with higher market caps versus the stocks we consider to be micro caps.
This naturally means these fund managers are sidelined in our investment universe and are simply not able to make investments for a variety of reasons:
We believe these 3 key reasons are:
- Liquidity - Related mostly to trading volumes in a particular company.
- Benchmarking - Related mostly to measuring the funds performance.
- Position-sizing - Related mostly to the size of a company’s market cap.
1. Fund managers need liquidity
These professional fund managers often have their funds open for “redemptions” - meaning, if investors in the fund want to take out their capital at any time they can simply apply for it, and the fund managers need to free up enough cash to pay back that investors' redemption.
When we invest in a micro cap stock ahead of the market becoming interested in it, there is usually low trading volumes and little publicity online.
The lack of trading volumes and publicity means these stocks are un-investable for these funds - let's run through a hypothetical redemption scenario to try and understand why.
Let's say one of these funds has managed to take a $500k position in a micro cap stock that has a $5M market cap, their shareholding makes up 10% of the company’s shares on issue.
Now let's say that 3 or 4 of the investors in that fund have gone off and purchased a new home. They are now approaching settlement and ask the fund manager to send back their cash (referred to as a “redemption”).
Nothing has changed in markets or with the company that the fund invested in BUT the circumstances of the investors in the fund have.
These fund managers are now in a position where they have become “forced sellers”. They need to liquidate some of the funds positions to make sure they can pay back the investors who want to redeem their funds.
That fund manager now logs into their brokerage account and realises they need to sell some of that $500k investment but have quickly realised that the market is still yet to catch onto the potential of the company.
They have now become forced sellers of 10% of the company’s shares on issue at a time when there are little or no buy bids.
This level of selling pressure can kill a company’s share price and may mean that the $500k position is sold at a deep discount - crystallising losses in an investment that the fund manager may still believe will be a good investment in the long run.
Professional fund managers can’t afford to take on small, illiquid investments and need to have certainty about their ability to exit a stock.
Below is an excerpt from Perpetual’s PDS (Product Disclosure Statement) which shows they are required to invest only in companies with higher market caps & more trading volumes:
Below you can also see the bulk of other “Micro Cap fund” holdings are in companies with market caps well above the $100M mark:
2. Fund managers performance is measured relative to a benchmark
Professional fund managers live and die by their performance relative to a certain benchmark.
If they underperform, investors will pull capital and if they overperform they attract more capital. This generally leads to fund managers tracking the composition of these benchmarks closely as opposed to building a portfolio from scratch.
This performance is then compared to their peers’ performance against the same benchmark. Therefore, it becomes less about absolute performance and more about not massively underperforming relative to their peers.
Further, most of the funds that are marketed as “Micro-cap” Funds will be benchmarked against the ASX Small Cap All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XSO).
Reading through this index’s eligibility criteria reveals that only stocks above a certain market cap and with trading volumes that are “Institutionally investable” make the cut.
This means the professionals will generally favour more established companies that are either already profitable, revenue generating, or simply put, have a much larger market cap.
This leaves a large part of the micro cap universe (sub-$100M market caps) as uninvestable to these fund managers.
This is where the opportunity lies for early-stage investors like us.
Naturally, our analysis seeks to identify companies that these professional fund managers will one day be looking to buy, at much higher share prices, once they has progressed through the company-lifecycle phases and are considered to be “institutionally investable”.
Below are images in some of these funds' PDS showing the funds benchmark.
3. Fund Managers take larger positions
This brings us to the last of the reasons: position sizing.
Believe it or not, having a lot of cash to invest is not always a good thing.
These professional fund managers typically invest in excess of $50M across a portfolio of stocks.
This inevitably leads these funds to shun smaller, less liquid companies. This is simply because they can't take a big enough position without seriously moving the share price or that there just aren’t enough shares for sale.
Let's run through another hypothetical scenario:
If a fund with $50M in funds under management wanted to allocate 5% to invest in a particular stock, this would be a $2.5M investment.
Now let’s say that investment is a $10M-capped junior exploration company and the fund is trying to build a position that makes up 25% of the market cap.
As you can see, that size of an investment simply isn't possible without moving the share price by +50-100% as the buying pressure simply outweighs the amount of shares for sale.
And no matter how tempting, these types of investments are almost never executed at the fund-level due to the above mentioned “Liquidity” and “Benchmarking” issues.
Fund managers must wait until this exploration company delivers results that move its market cap and trading liquidity into “investable” grade. Often this means buying it at a share price well above where we would have been making our investment.
In essence, these professionals are limited by the sheer size of the funds they manage. They can’t take positions in early stage, high-risk, high-reward companies with market caps below a certain level.
What does this mean for early stage investors?
Bringing this all together, there are obvious advantages to allocating capital to a professional fund manager — they charge a small fee and do all of the work.
But be aware that they do face limitations, particularly when investing in small, early stage companies. These are the companies that we prefer to invest in — what we consider true micro cap stocks, with market caps of less than $50M to $100M.
This is where we have an edge, as many funds are limited by their investment mandates and can’t invest in the early stage companies we look at...
We think by doing our research and investing ahead of the markets we can back the companies that one day these professionals can invest in at much higher prices.
Naturally, this means that the ultimate aim for early stage investors like ourselves is to invest in companies with high quality future prospects and hope that they can grow into stocks that these professional fund managers are able to invest in, to take them through their next stage of growth.
We maintain a diversified portfolio because early stage investing is high risk with a lot of uncertainty around execution.
Most small companies we invest in will fail to achieve enough of their objectives to progress to a stage that becomes investable by professional fund managers, but for the few that do we expect to deliver significant returns.
We seek to identify early stage companies that we think have the highest chance to deliver their business plan and move to a stage that can attract institutional capital.
We aim to hold a position along this journey from $25M market cap to $100M, then to $500M, and hopefully beyond, as progressively bigger institutional funds join us along the way.