SS1 plots US listing - silver on the draft US critical minerals list

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 3,428,902 SS1 Shares at the time of publishing this article. The Company has been engaged by SS1 to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in SS1 over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

US$42.67 per ounce.

The silver price just hit new 14 year highs again overnight.

Silver might just have started that breakout to new all-time highs we have been writing about for weeks now:

As the silver price increases, the in-ground value of silver resources goes up with it...

Our 2024 Small Cap Pick of the Year Sun Silver (ASX:SS1) owns the largest pre-production silver asset on the ASX and one of the largest within the USA.

And now it’s about to list on a US stock exchange.

The US is the place to be for silver companies - some of the biggest pure play silver producers are listed in Canada and the USA... wait til they see SS1.

SS1 has a 480M oz of silver equivalent JORC resource estimate on one asset in the USA:

(Source)

SS1 is drilling right now to grow that resource even further, and lately has been hitting high grade silver at shallower depths than the existing resource estimate.

(SS1’s US based project could ALSO host a giant antimony deposit - antimony is a US critical military metal - SS1’s drill cores keep showing antimony - more on that later in today’s note).

SS1 is aiming for a silver resource estimate upgrade AND potentially a maiden antimony resource estimate before the end of the year.

(SS1 raised $30M at 92c back in July so has the cash runway to deliver on these potential share price catalysts.)

Today SS1 started the listing process to get onto a US OTC (Over the Counter) market...

... this is a stepping stone for a potential listing on a much bigger exchange like the New York Stock Exchange.

OTC listings are definitely having an impact on ASX small cap share prices these days.

Our two US based Investments Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) and Resolution Minerals (ASX: RML) recently both hit new all time highs off increased volumes on the OTC.

The US is the place to be for silver companies - some of the biggest pure play silver producers are listed in Canada and the USA.

Having major commodity producers listed on an exchange means knowledge and capital trickle down into the juniors as investors are able to better understand the value proposition of small cap silver names.

A few of us just attended the Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit last week where we noticed North American investors were shocked at the “low valuations” of silver stocks on the ASX.

What we found was that North American silver stocks are valued much higher compared to ASX peers simply because of the exchange they are listed on.

Which is probably why SS1 managed to attract “leading North American funds” to its $30M ‘global institution’ led capital raise in July (at 92c per share):

(Source)

With the silver price threatening a breakout to new highs (again) - SS1 is set up to make the most of capital looking for silver exposure.

On the macro front, things could get a lot more interesting for SS1 too.

Silver to be classified as a critical mineral in the USA?

It looks like silver might soon be classified as a “critical mineral” in the US.

On the 25th of August, the US Department of the Interior (DOI) released a “draft 2025 list of critical minerals”.

And recommended silver for inclusion on the US critical minerals list.

(Source)

Silver is the single most conductive metal on the planet so it could become more and more important in high value tech applications - which may explain why the DoI is considering adding it to the critical minerals list.

“US critical minerals” is one of the hottest macro thematics in the market right now, off the back of US government support for the sector.

(both capital and permitting support)

MP Materials for example, a US producer of critical minerals, received a US$400M direct investment from the Pentagon and a US$600M offtake deal from Apple.

Perpetua Resources received almost US$2BN in funding support from the US government to build its gold and antimony project in Idaho.

IF silver ends up on the US critical minerals list, we think it could lead to a rush into silver stocks with projects inside the US (of which there aren’t many on the ASX).

Like, you guessed it, SS1.

SS1 headed for a US stock exchange

Today, SS1 announced that it would go for a US OTC listing... ahead of a potential future listing on a bigger exchange like the NYSE.

(Source)

OTC listings are definitely working as a way for ASX companies to attract US investors to their share registers and get US exposure right now.

We are seeing above average buying in OTC listed stocks, which is translating to even more interest on the ASX...

In our Portfolio we have seen it happen with our Investments Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) and Resolution Minerals (ASX: RML).

Both are trading pretty regularly on OTC markets, and sometimes in the millions of shares per day.

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

With an OTC listing, SS1 will be set up to deliver major catalysts to a much bigger USA focussed audience over the next 6-12 months.

3 SS1 share price catalysts the US markets might like

Here are the three big catalysts from SS1 that we think the North Americans will like from SS1 are:

1. An upgrade to the existing JORC resource estimate - SS1 is drilling right now and keeps hitting more silver in holes OUTSIDE of its current resource estimate.
2. A maiden antimony resource - SS1 also finding its deposit is laced with antimony. IF a strong antimony resource estimate was declared, this were to happen we think the US markets will really start to take a closer look at SS1.
3. AND, engagement with “US government departments, critical mineral initiatives or US partners” - this could result in project level funding from a government agency - like we have seen on other US critical minerals projects. We don’t know what this could lead to...

Any of these three catalysts could trigger a wave of US interest into SS1.

Point #3 above, non-dilutive funding from the US government’, would certainly open up the SS1 story to a much larger audience of investors...

$30M raised - and SS1 in Denver this week

SS1 has already got a fair bit of interest out of the US already - SS1’s recent $30M capital raising included “leading North American” funds:

(Source)

(SS1’s major shareholder Nokomis Capital is a North American fund that manages hundreds of millions of dollars, who once again participated in the most recent raise.)

And we have been observing SS1 being purchased by the Sprott Silver Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), which is listed on the NASDAQ:

(Source)

We are hoping SS1’s presence at the Denver Gold conference in Colorado Springs this week is a good warm up for the US crowd ahead of the company’s listing on the OTC.

Last year when SS1 attended these conferences it managed to bring Nokomis onto its register (who continues to hold a substantial chunk of SS1 shares).

Anyone interested can sign up to listen to SS1’s conference presentation using the following link - you might have to pay $15 for it, but it's cheaper than flying to Denver:

(Source)

We have seen what hanging around a big US conference can do for a small cap ASX listed company just last week - Locksley Resources (ASX: LKY) is up over 100% and hit a new all time high yesterday...

(the past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance)

Mithril Silver & Gold (ASX: MTH) was another one like SS1 that came out of last year’s Beaver Creek Summit with a completely new institutionalised shareholder register.

You just never know who might be on the other end of a pitch and how deep their pockets are...

Especially now with US investors actively looking for silver exposure...

US investors are very bullish on silver...

As mentioned earlier, a few of us just attended the Beaver Creek 2025 Precious Metals Summit, where we noticed North American investors were very interested in getting set in silver stocks...

AND were shocked at the “low valuations” of silver stocks on the ASX when we showed them a few companies.

What we found was that North American silver stocks are valued much higher compared to ASX peers on a per ounce basis simply because of where they are listed.

North Americans seem to understand silver a lot better than us on the ASX - probably because you can find pure play silver producers in North America, whereas there isn’t really a pure play silver producing major on the ASX right now:

The North Americans at the Beaver Creek Precious Metals Summit were also very bullish on the silver price.

The keynote speaker we listened to, Florian Grummes, who is CEO of Midas Touch Consulting (a consultancy specialising in precious metals), had a view that silver was going to US$100 per ounce.

Check out Florian’s full keynote here.

He believed that silver would have to have its gold moment and breakout of its generational cup and handle setup...

Here is what that looked like for the gold price:

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

And here is that generational cup and handle formation that has formed for silver over the last few decades:

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

And finally here is Florian’s chart’s where he predicts silver going to a “minimum target of US$100 per ounce”:

(Check out Florian’s full presentation here)

We also need to remember when we watch this that an analyst price prediction is based on a number of assumptions that may be incorrect, and is absolutely no guarantee to eventuate.

Markets are unpredictable.

SS1 is leveraged to the silver price

Whilst it’s no guarantee, we hope Florian is right and silver does go to US$100 per ounce...

We are very bullish on silver and at the moment, 3 of our top 5 positions in the Portfolio are silver stocks.

The single biggest holding is SS1.

What could SS1’s project be worth at US$100 per ounce silver? Who knows.

We have witnessed SS1’s share price trade in line with the silver price pretty closely since listing on the ASX:

(SS1 / Silver Chart)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

So if the silver price runs, we would hope to see a run in the SS1 share price.

We think the correlation comes down to the silver price having a material impact on the value of SS1’s in ground resource.

You can do your own maths on what every incremental increase of US$1 per ounce in the silver price means for the potential in ground value of SS1’s 480 million ounce silver equivalent resource estimate.

(It’s actually not an easy calculation, and a lot of assumptions need to be made - costs to mine, operational execution and processing the silver would also need to be considered, which SS1 is in the process of figuring out. That’s before we even consider the time value of money.)

Ultimately though we think that SS1 fundamentally de-risking its project through the development phases will be what re-rates SS1’s share price permanently and help the company achieve our Big Bet which is as follows:

Our SS1 Big Bet:

“SS1 re-rates to a +$300M market cap by expanding its large US silver resource and moving into development studies and/or attracting a takeover bid at multiples of our Initial Entry Price”

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, country risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our SS1 Investment Memo.

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

SS1’s project could also host a giant antimony resource

As we mentioned earlier in today’s note, SS1 is currently re-assaying old drillcore to test for antimony.

Antimony is a critical military metal used for various defence applications like missiles, tanks and ammunition.

Right now, the US has no domestic supply of antimony and China controls ~85% of antimony processing capacity globally.

So if SS1 can deliver a large antimony resource estimate, its project could also develop some strategic value as a project sitting inside US borders.

None of the old drilling on SS1’s project was tested for antimony.

So far, almost all of the holes SS1 has re-assayed have had antimony in them.

SS1 first hit antimony in one of its new drillholes in August 2024 - BEFORE the China export ban on antimony came into place:

(Source)

(Source)

After the China export bans on the commodity, the antimony price has rallied by over 300% in the last 6 months.

(and more than 600% in the last 12 months...)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Given antimony’s use in critical military applications, the US government has been scrambling to secure its domestic supply, and has deployed ~US$1.8BN in funding on a US based precious metals project owned by Perpetua Resources.

Perpetua Resources’ project, like SS1’s, is primarily a precious metals project (in Perpetua’s case its gold).

BUT its project also has an antimony resource, and if the mine moves into production, could produce ~30% of the USA’s domestic needs.

That’s why the US government has deployed ~US$1.8BN in funding at bringing its project online and seen Perpetua’s share price re-rate by over 1,000% over the last ~12 months.

Perpetua, today, is capped at ~$3BN.

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

We are primarily Invested in SS1 as an exposure to its giant silver resource estimate.

BUT we think the antimony is an increasingly important side story for SS1 because it could unlock government funding and support for SS1’s project...

SS1 recently finalised a white paper to submit to the Department of Defence (DoD) for funding.

(Source)

And we note that SS1 has explicitly said that it was pursuing US DoD funding right now...

(Source)

Here is where SS1 has found antimony across its resource so far:

And here are the parts of SS1’s project that we want to see also come back with antimony:

Update on our 6 key “Share price catalysts” for SS1

We have been talking about what might trigger a rally in SS1’s share price in 2025 since the start of this year.

Of the 6 catalysts that we forecast for SS1, so far 4 of them have played out in SS1’s favour:

• ✅ Silver price runs - 🚨Update: Overnight the silver price hit a new 14 year high at US$42.67 per ounce.
• ✅ Exploration success - 🚨Update: Assays from SS1’s first hole in 2025 delivered its best ever drill result, 70m of mineralisation outside of the current resource estimate. An interval with grades as high as 10,548g/t silver.
• ✅ SS1 reaches a size where it gets added to index funds - 🚨Update: This is happening right now - we are tracking Sprott’s holdings here.
• ✅ SS1 delivers an antimony surprise - 🚨Update: SS1 has delivered some of its best antimony results over the last few months, which we covered here: SS1: Highest Grade Antimony Result. So Far...
• 🔄 SS1 resource update - 🚨Update: We think the resource upgrade could be a much bigger catalyst than we had first thought. Some of SS1’s re-assayed old holes are coming back with silver grades over 20% higher than originally assayed.
• 🔄 SS1 met test work results - 🚨Update: SS1 is working on this right now AND in an interview a few months ago, SS1’s Managing Director Andrew Dornan also mentioned that SS1 is currently running met test work to see if its project is “heap leachable”. IF SS1 can demonstrate that its resource can be heap leached it could become a well understood USA mega project that the bigger players would surely want a piece of (no guarantees of success though...)

We expect to see these share price catalysts to unfold before the end of this year:

(Source)

What are the risks?

In the short term we think the key risk for SS1 is “Commodity price risk”.

This is because SS1’s share price tends to move up and down with the silver price.

IF the silver price was to fall, we would expect to see weakness in SS1’s share price.

Commodity price risk

The performance of commodity stocks are often closely linked to the value of the underlying commodities they are seeking to extract. Should silver and gold prices fall, this could hurt the SS1 share price.

Source: “What could go wrong?” - SS1 Investment Memo 26 March 2025

We list more risks in our Investment Memo which you can see here.

Other Risks

Investing in SS1 carries other risks which may affect the value of the company. The Company’s primary asset is a pre-production silver and potential antimony project in Nevada, USA, and its prospects are inherently speculative.

As mentioned above, the value of SS1 is highly sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices - particularly silver, and maybe antimony. A sustained downturn in these prices could materially impact the project’s economic viability.

There is also exploration and development risk. The Company is currently re-assaying historical drill holes and undertaking new drilling to confirm the presence and extent of antimony, which remains unproven at commercial scale.

Metallurgical test work is ongoing, and the project’s ability to proceed to heap leach production has not yet been demonstrated.

Additionally, there is no guarantee SS1 will receive government funding or support, including from the US Department of Defence, despite strategic interest in antimony.

The Company is as mentioned reliant on capital markets to fund development, and any capital raise may dilute existing shareholders.

Finally, regulatory, environmental, and permitting risks in the US jurisdiction - while generally stable - may delay or adversely affect development.

Investors should consider these risks carefully and seek professional advice tailored to their personal circumstances before investing.

Our SS1 Investment Memo

Our Investment Memo provides a short, high-level summary of our reasons for Investing.

We use this memo to track the progress of all our Investments over time.

Click here to read our SS1 Investment Memo where you will find:

• What does SS1 do?
• The macro theme for SS1
• Our SS1 Big Bet
• What we want to see SS1 achieve
• Why we are Invested in SS1
• The key risks to our Investment Thesis
• Our Investment Plan