SS1: 480 million ounce silver resource estimate suddenly ~20% bigger?

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 3,374,000 SS1 shares at the time of publishing this article. The Company has been engaged by SS1 to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in SS1 over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

One of our key share price catalysts for Sun Silver (ASX:SS1) was to increase its 480 million ounce silver equivalent resource estimate.

(into a rising silver price, which looks like it’s happening)

We didn’t think it could happen like this...

(Source: SS1 Announcement)

What happened is that while SS1 was re-testing 5 of their ~200 historical holes for critical military metal antimony...

It also turns out that ALL FIVE retests showed at least 20% higher silver grades too.

So there is a chance that the 200 historical drill holes that make up SS1’s 480 million silver resource estimate could all have silver grades that have been under-reported by at least 20%.

(this is no guarantee of course, this is only five holes out of 200 historical ones, which is a pretty good start, but it's early)

SS1 has 25 more of the 200 historical drill holes being retested now - so we should find out more in the coming weeks and months.

(the retesting is now for higher silver grades AND for the original re-testing purpose to see if SS1 also has a significant antimony resource)

SS1 chose historical holes to test that were quite far away from each other, to get the best idea of how far the antimony (and now 20% higher silver grades) might extend:

(image source: SS1 Antimony announcement)

A 20% increase in grade is big - IF SS1’s silver grades increase by that amount, it would be almost equivalent to the average grades that the world’s biggest silver miner is operating one of its biggest mines (also in Nevada).

$9BN Coeur’s Rochester has been producing silver and gold at average silver grades of ~12 grams per tonne.

A 20% uplift in grades for SS1 would be a ~8.5 grams per tonne increase alone in silver grades for SS1’s project...

More testing is required though.

So now we wait for more assays on the remaining ~25 historic drillholes.

In the meantime, we hope to see the Sprott Silver ETF continue to increase its position in SS1.

(Sprott’s ETF has been slowly increasing its position - taking SS1 from 0.36% of the fund at 30 June 2025 to 0.45% as of Wednesday)

(Source)

(Source)

We are waiting to see if Sprott bought more yesterday.

You can see Sprott’s SIlver ETF daily holding updates here (scroll down to see daily update on how many SS1 shares Sprott holds)

What we are watching for next from SS1:

• More SS1 silver drill results in the 2025 campaign - like a giant 10,548g/t silver interval outside the resource, allow SS1 to grow it even further. (Read about it here)
• Silver price to keep going up - On Monday silver hit US$39, the highest price in 14 years. 5 days later its still above US$38 (read our take here)
• More historical antimony cores results - to prove antimony runs all through SS1’s giant silver resource estimate. This will see SS1 continue to evolve into being seen as USA precious metal AND defence critical metals company
• Continued US government and investor interest in USA critical metals - Last week the US government invested US$400M into rare earths producer MP Materials (Source)
• More Index fund and ETF on market buying - SS1 has made it into the Sprott Silver ETF, will more come in?

SS1 is leveraged to silver price movements

Being the largest pre-production silver resource on the ASX, SS1’s price generally tracks closely to the silver price - up and down.

The direction of the silver price has been basically correlated with the direction SS1’s share price moves in:

(SS1 / Silver Chart)

Any increase in the silver price matters a lot for SS1 because of how big its resource is...

You can do your own maths on what every incremental increase of US$1 per ounce in the silver price means for the potential in ground value of SS1’s 480 million ounce silver equivalent resource estimate.

(It’s actually not an easy calculation, and a lot of assumptions need to be made - costs to mine, operational execution and processing the silver would also need to be considered, which SS1 is in the process of figuring out. That’s before we even consider the time value of money.)

You can also do the maths on what a 20% increase in the silver grade could mean for SS1’s resource size.. (assuming the under-reporting is confirmed across more of the 200 historical holes)

There is still a lot of work for SS1 to be in a position to extract the silver from the ground (including met work and feasibility studies) to realise the value of that silver.

But in the most simple terms - the more silver SS1 has, and the higher the silver price goes, the better for SS1.

What do the silver experts think about the price of silver?

Recently Andy Schectman went on Investing News Network to describe why silver is “the most undervalued asset of our generation”:

(this is a pretty big call of course, watch below and see our summary - and remember he could be wrong)

(Watch from 19:00 minute mark)

Here is our summary of Andy’s take on the silver market that starts at the 19 minute mark:

• Military interest in keeping the silver price down: There is a big interest in keeping the price of silver down because it is a critical mineral in missiles, high-tech weapons etc (bit of a conspiracy theory style idea but does sound plausible)...
• Naked short positions creating outsized paper burden on the market: Eight western banks collectively hold the largest concentrated short position on silver, much of it is “naked,” meaning these shorts are not covered by any corresponding inventory of physical metal.
• China soaking up physical silver, pressuring short positions: BRICS nations and other well‐funded sovereign actors like China, are increasingly demanding physical delivery of silver, thereby forcing a market squeeze on the shorts. London Bullion Market Association’s dwindling silver holdings, now at their lowest level in 140 years.

These factors have created a position where in order to cover the short positions, people will pay more for silver (in physical form) pushing the silver price up.

While the structural challenges in the silver market are evident, there is no guarantee that Andy is correct about the confluence of interests in keeping the silver price down and the conditions to make the silver price go up.

From a technical/charting perspective the momentum is in silver’s favour as well...

Before you read the below, please remember that commodity prices can go both up and down. Always invest with caution when it comes to small cap ASX stocks. The past performance is not indicative of future performance.

We have shared this video a few times with technical analyst Michael Oliver who said: “If silver goes above $35, watch out because if it goes above $36 it's a triple top breakout”.

(since then silver has broken through both those levels)

And then Michael said “we are going to get another launch” and when we get it “it will be at a speedier process than what gold is currently doing”.

Gold is currently trading at all-time highs and is up over 100% over the last 18 months.

IF silver does anything like that, it could trade above US$50/ounce.

And here is another technical expert - Mike Maloney - who put out the following video after Monday’s run in the silver price and said a “$10 move is coming quickly”.

Mike thinks the silver price is going to US$48 per ounce.

(Watch the full video here)

Eric Sprott’s view on silver?

Eric Sprott (the godfather of silver in markets) also agrees - in fact he is even more bullish and thinks that a “commercial short squeeze” could be about to happen because:

1. Silver is used in the military - Sprott says “all of those missiles being fired off”, “they use a lot of silver”.
   
2. Silver deliveries on the COMEX are at all time highs - Sprott talks about how actual physical deliveries are happening now, which wasn't a thing on the COMEX in the past.
   
3. Silver's suppression era is ending - Sprott talks about how banks have been short paper silver for decades and are finally starting to unwind these positions as demand for physical delivery increases.

Watch Sprott's most recent take on the silver market here:

(watch the full video here)

Eric Sprott’s silver Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is buying SS1

One of the main reasons we made SS1 our Small Cap Pick of the Year is that we thought the size of its giant silver resource would one day land it in market indices.

There aren’t many ways to get large scale silver exposure on the ASX and so our view was that as the silver price runs, investors would look for exposure and buy SS1 instead.

The same would go for institutional funds and indexes...

SS1 was recently added to the Sprott Silver Miners and Physical ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), which trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker SLVR.

As of 30 June 2025 - SS1 made up 0.36% of the ETF:

(Source)

The ETF has ~US$150m in assets under management and SS1 is one of just 49 companies that have made it into the portfolio.

The fund can literally buy any silver company in the world - including the major producers - and has chosen to add SS1 as one of the 49 companies.

We have been tracking the Sprott portfolio make up daily and as of yesterday night, SS1’s weighting in the fund actually increased.

SS1 now makes up 0.45% of the fund - which means Sprott is buying SS1 actively on market:

(Source)

We wrote about this in our note on Wednesday but we think index inclusion into the Sprott ETF could be a precursor for entry into other indexes (like the ASX indices).

Getting into more indices should mean more passive funds flow into SS1.

Read more about how index inclusion can open up a stock to a whole new pool of capital in a previous weekend note here: Index Inclusion: A Small Cap’s Big Leap

Index inclusion was something that some of our best ever resource Investments have had going into a period of strong newsflow.

Some of our best ever Investments ran to their all time highs off the back of index inclusion.

Here is what happened to Vulcan Energy Resources after it got included in the S&P All Ordinaries index:

(At its peak, VUL was up 8,225% from our Initial Entry Price)

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Also Latin Resources, which went from our Initial Entry Price of 1.8c to a high of ~42c (up 2,332% at its peak):

The past performance is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Caution should be exercised in assessing past performance. This product, like all other financial products, is subject to market forces and unpredictable events that may adversely affect future performance.

Both of those companies started run ups off the back of index inclusion.

Index inclusion alone didn’t spark these rallies, nor does it guarantee sustained price increases, but it played a part in adding “fuel to fire” as larger pools of capital become unlocked.

Now having been included into one index fund (Sprott’s ETF) we are hoping SS1 gets into a major ASX index and attracts another wave of institutional capital.

Getting into bigger indices and ETFs will mean more passive capital starts buying SS1.

Basically, the bet from us is that as SS1 floats around and above the $1 share price - the buying from other passive sources will kick in...

Getting into something like an ASX all ordinaries index requires a market cap typically above ~$150M and consistently high daily trading volumes.

We have definitely noticed the pickup in daily trading volumes for SS1.

Now we just need the share price to stay consistently above $1 per share - which would give SS1 a market cap of ~$145M.

Update on our 6 key “Share price catalysts” for SS1

We have been talking about what might trigger a rally in SS1’s share price in 2025 since the start of this year.

Of the 6 catalysts that we have forecast for SS1, so far 4 of them have played out in SS1’s favour:

• ✅ Silver price runs - On Monday this week silver hit US$39, the highest in 14 years.
• ✅ Exploration success - Last week SS1 delivered its best ever drill result 70m of mineralisation outside of the current resource. An interval with grades as high as 10,548g/t silver.
• ✅ SS1 reaches a size where it gets added to index funds - This month SS1 was revealed to be in the Sprott Silver Miner and Physical Silver ETF
• ✅ SS1 delivers an antimony surprise - SS1 delivered the best antimony results from its project we have seen on Wednesday.
• 🔄 SS1 resource update - Today’s news is telling us this one could be a much bigger catalyst than we expected...
• 🔄 SS1 met test work results - Pending

Here is a deeper dive into each of the six catalysts

✅ Silver price runs

The first is pretty simple, IF the silver price runs, then we would expect SS1’s share price to follow.

🚨 Update

On Monday, silver hit a 14 year high on Monday at just above US$39 per ounce.

See our deep dive on why we think the silve price will run earlier in today’s note.

✅ Exploration success

SS1 is drilling right now. Anything that extends the current resource OR adds shallow mineralisation the resource could be a game changer for SS1 (especially a big silver hit or antimony hit, or more mineralisation near surface)

🚨 Update

Assays from SS1’s first hole for 2025 hit over 70m of mineralisation outside of the current resource area...

That hole also came in with the highest grade silver intercept to date from SS1’s project - an interval with grades as high as 10,548g/t silver.

See our coverage of the 10,548g/t silver hit here: SS1: Announces 70m intercept with a 10,548g/t silver equivalent interval... outside of its 480 million ounce JORC resource

✅ SS1 hits market cap/trading volume requirements to get into an index

This one is somewhat outside of the company’s control, but as the market cap gets bigger, SS1 becomes more investable for larger institutions.

We are hoping SS1 can hit the $150-200M market cap this year and get included in one of the ASX indices.

🚨 Update

This is happening... check out our deep dive earlier in today’s note on the index buying.

✅ Antimony surprise

SS1 could publish an antimony resource by re-assaying historical drill cores that were not tested for antimony. Antimony could signal to the market that SS1’s project is of ‘strategic importance’ to the US Government.

🚨 Update

SS1’s had results from old drillholes being re-tested for antimony on Wednesday.

The 66m intercept at 0.12% antimony grades is the best we have seen from SS1 to date.

We are now starting to see continuous antimony from across most of SS1’s resource.

The 66m intercept from Wednesday also has grades that are in the ballpark of Perpetua’s average resource grades:

This is only the first five assays from a 30 assay program, we will need to see the full results of the assay program to determine what kind of antimony resource sits on SS1’s project.

🔄 SS1 silver resource update -

SS1 updating its resource from inferred to indicated status could unlock institutional/corporate interest in its project.

🚨 Update

After today’s news, we think the resource upgrade could be a much bigger catalyst than we had first thought.

SS1 is saying that re-assayed old holes are coming back with grades +20% silver grades.

If SS1 can deliver a 20% upgrade to its grades, it would be a game changer for the project which currently has a silver only grade of ~42.2g/t.

A 20% increase would mean an almost 10g/t increase in the silver grades across the resource.

For some context - Coeur Mining (the world’s biggest silver producer) operates the Rochester asset in Nevada at grades <20g/t so the uplift alone would be material for SS1.

We have compared SS1 to Rochester before here: How does SS1’s project rank against some of the other mines in the region?

🔄 Metallurgical testwork

The final catalyst we are tracking is metwork.

IF SS1 can show that its project can be heap leached it would instantly become a well understood mega project that the bigger players would surely want a piece of.

We expect the 2025 drill program to feed into a resource update AND in an interview a few weeks back, SS1’s Managing Director Andrew Dornan also mentioned that SS1 is currently running met test work to see if its project is “heap leachable”.

So we could see both of these catalysts drop this year too:

(Source)

Ultimately, we are hoping that a combination of the six catalysts we wrote about above can help SS1 achieve our Big Bet which is as follows:

Our SS1 Big Bet:

“SS1 re-rates to a +$300M market cap by expanding its large US silver resource and moving into development studies and/or attracting a takeover bid at multiples of our Initial Entry Price”

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, country risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our SS1 Investment Memo.

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

What are the risks?

In the short term we think there are two key risks for SS1.

First is “Commodity price risk” and second is “Funding/dilution risk”.

There is commodity price risk, because SS1’s share price tends to move up and down with the silver price.

IF the silver price was to fall, we would expect to see weakness in SS1’s share price.

Commodity price risk

The performance of commodity stocks are often closely linked to the value of the underlying commodities they are seeking to extract. Should silver and gold prices fall, this could hurt the SS1 share price.

Source: “What could go wrong?” - SS1 Investment Memo 26 March 2025

There is funding/dilution risk, because as a pre revenue resource development company, SS1 may need to raise some cash off the back of momentum in its share price.

Raising cash allows a company to continue to develop its assets with the goal of increasing shareholder value over the long term.

In the short term it creates some selling pressure from the investors who may look to flip their shares for a quick profit.

For every new share issued, the value of each share can go down, hence the dilution risk.

Funding risk/dilution risk

As a small cap, SS1 is reliant on capital markets to advance its projects. If something negative happens at a macro or company level, SS1 could struggle to access capital on favourable terms. These capital raises may take place at a discount, and result in the issuance of new shares which incur dilution to existing shareholders.

Source: “What could go wrong?” - SS1 Investment Memo 26 March 2025

Other Risks:

Investing in SS1 carries other risks which may affect the value of the company. The Company’s primary asset is a pre-production silver and potential antimony project in Nevada, USA, and its prospects are inherently speculative.

As mentioned the value of SS1 is highly sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices - particularly silver, and maybe antimony. A sustained downturn in these prices could materially impact the project’s economic viability.

There is also exploration and development risk. The Company is currently re-assaying historical drill holes and undertaking new drilling to confirm the presence and extent of antimony, which remains unproven at commercial scale.

Metallurgical test work is ongoing, and the project’s ability to proceed to heap leach production has not yet been demonstrated.

Additionally, there is no guarantee SS1 will receive government funding or support, including from the US Department of Defence, despite strategic interest in antimony.

The Company is as mentioned reliant on capital markets to fund development, and any capital raise may dilute existing shareholders.

Finally, regulatory, environmental, and permitting risks in the US jurisdiction - while generally stable - may delay or adversely affect development.

Investors should consider these risks carefully and seek professional advice tailored to their personal circumstances before investing.

Our SS1 Investment Memo

Our Investment Memo provides a short, high-level summary of our reasons for Investing.

We use this memo to track the progress of all our Investments over time.

Click here to read our SS1 Investment Memo where you will find:

• What does SS1 do?
• The macro theme for SS1
• Our SS1 Big Bet
• What we want to see SS1 achieve
• Why we are Invested in SS1
• The key risks to our Investment Thesis
• Our Investment Plan