OD6: Multiple surface outcroppings... are they connected?

Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 10,650,000 OD6 Shares at the time of publishing this article. The Company has been engaged by OD6 to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in OD6 over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any forward-looking statements are uncertain and not a guaranteed outcome.

9 weeks ago the US Department of War awarded a US$168.9M supply contract to a tiny company with a development-stage fluorspar project in the USA. (source)

(potentially increasing to US$250M)

(source)

What on earth is fluorspar?

Fluorspar is used in the production of missile systems, military electronics and jet fuel...

(not to mention an essential role in AI semiconductor chip production, batteries, nuclear power and aerospace)

AND it was listed as one of the nine materials with the highest shortfall risk for the US military in a major conflict scenario. (source)

(a major conflict like we are seeing in the Middle East right now...)

The US has zero domestic fluorspar production and is 100% import reliant - with China controlling ~60% of global supply....

At the moment, there is only one company on the ASX with a fluorspar asset inside US borders - our Investment OD6 Metals (ASX:OD6).

Earlier this month OD6 announced it is acquiring a project in Nevada, USA that previously produced Fluorspar from a small scale mining operation in the 1950’s.

The project has a historic resource that the company says can’t be announced because it was defined in 1956 and hasn’t been verified up to JORC standards.

Despite the history of production and a mysterious historic resource (non-JORC compliant), the project has NEVER been drilled before...

And now, the project could be a lot bigger than we first thought too.

OD6 just announced they have defined a ~8km long trend “linking multiple historic fluorspar occurrences across the project”.

(using advanced satellite and airborne hyperspectral analysis - sounds intense)

Think of it like at first seeing a bunch of individual icebergs floating along in the water:

But then it turns out they are all actually part of one big iceberg underneath:

What this means is that potentially all of the OD6’s original, smaller fluorspar occurrences could actually be part of one bigger, underground system (that has never been drilled out before):

(source)

Before today OD6’s project had a bunch of scattered small scale pits that had been mined for fluorspar.

Drilling will test if they all could be a part of a much larger system across ~8km:

(source)

As mentioned earlier, the asset OD6 is acquiring has produced fluorspar in the past.

Previous production was from an open-pit on the side of a hill - the project has actually NEVER been drilled before.

Apart from production, there has only been channel and rock chip sampling on the project - which is basically scraping the surface and then assaying it.

Here is how it all looks in a cross section:

(source)

What we don't know YET is how big the “estimated widths” are - which will require OD6 to do some drilling to find out.

Next we want to see OD6 drill test the project and hopefully reveal thick fluorspar rich zones behind the wall faces (hopefully all across the ~8km long trend - we only need a few hundred metres to come in for the project to start becoming interesting):

(source) (source)

No guarantees there will be fluorspar deeper in the ground though - we’ve been burnt by a few ‘drilling into a hill face with surface mineralisation’ before - there’s always a chance OD6 drills dusters here.

OD6 is the only company on the ASX with a Fluorspar asset in the USA

As far as we know, OD6 is the only company on the ASX with a fluorspar asset in the USA.

We like a first-mover in ASX small cap land.

We think 2026 will be a continuation of what we saw happen in 2025 for the whole US critical minerals macro thematic.

Instead of the focus being on a few minerals - we think it will be the year where the US government (and corporates) broaden their horizons and go for the niche industrial minerals that are actually extremely critical in their respective supply chains.

The hardest part of having that conviction and making Investments according to it is guessing which critical mineral becomes “hot” next.

No one knows for sure, but we are going long on niche critical minerals that fit a certain criteria:

1. It has to be on the US critical minerals list

✅ OD6 has picked a fluorspar asset. Fluorspar is on the US critical minerals list. Fluorspar has also been identified as one of the nine materials with the highest shortfall risk for the US military in a major conflict scenario.

1. Where the US is near or at 100% import reliance

✅ The US has zero domestic fluorspar production and China controls ~60% of global production.

1. Where the mineral is being used in advanced technologies (and preferably defence, AI, robotics or advanced energy).

✅ Fluorspar is required for missile systems, military electronics and jet fuel.

1. Where the US government has sent out signals to the market that it NEEDS supply.

✅ About six weeks ago, the Department of War awarded a US$168.9M supply contract to a company with a similar, development-stage asset in Utah, USA. So we have very recent evidence of the US government putting its money down to secure a supply of fluorspar. (source)

That’s why today, we Invested in OD6.

Why fluorspar?

For anyone who hasn’t heard of Fluorspar before - here is why we think the US military is throwing cash at securing supply.

Fluorspar is critical for producing:

• Missile systems - fluorspar is required to produce hydrofluoric acid, which is used in missile guidance electronics
• AI semiconductor chips - used in the etching process for advanced chip manufacturing
• Military batteries - lithium-ion batteries require fluorine, and there's no fluorine without fluorspar
• Nuclear fuel - essential in uranium processing for nuclear power and weapons
• Aerospace and defence - used in jet fuel production and radar systems

Fluorspar has been identified as one of the nine materials with the highest shortfall risk for the US military in a major conflict scenario:

(like the conflict that is happening right now...)

(source - from the full paper)

Fluorspar was one of the O.G. critical minerals - making it into the US critical minerals list way back in 2018 - it has maintained its status on that list ever since.

And fluorspar was one of the few minerals that was added to the tariff exemption list by the Trump administration in April 2025.

(source)

(meaning that supply was too important to the US to mess with by imposing import tariffs)

The US consumes ~400,000 metric tonnes of fluorspar per year and produces effectively zero domestically.

That gap - combined with China controlling ~60% of global supply - is why the Pentagon just handed Ares Strategic Mining a US$168.9M contract to develop domestic fluorspar production.

(source)

We also like that there is a fluorspar success story on the ASX already - $680M Tivan...

One of the reasons we Invested in OD6 is because there's already a fluorspar success story on the ASX.

$680M capped Tivan has a fluorspar project in Western Australia that is currently in a Joint Venture with $61BN Japanese Conglomerate Sumitomo.

That JV tells us that the Japanese have a foot on the fluorspar that will come out of Tivan’s projects.

That means there's currently no real way to get US fluorspar exposure on the ASX - outside of OD6.

We also like that OD6’s asset is (so far) returning much higher grades than Tivan’s project too.

And OD6's grades are multiples higher than Tivan's:

Another reason we like OD6 is because the grades from its project are multiples higher than Tivan’s.

Tivan’s resource is 43.2mt at 8.3% Fluorspar. (source)

Whilst OD6 does not have a defined resource estimate yet, OD6 is sampling grades up to 94% in rock chips and 48% fluorspar across 10+ metre channel samples (source)

(source)

Remember OD6’s project produced fluorspar from a small scale mining operation in the 1950s - it produced ~26,000 tonnes of material at an estimated grade of 44.9% Fluorite. (source)

That’s production at grades that are ~7.5x Tivan’s resource.

Tivan is capped at $680M.

OD6 - with an asset in the US - is capped at $20M.

Now, Tivan is a lot more advanced relative to OD6 with a defined resource estimate and a major partner involved backing its project. Market cap differences reflect these vastly different stages of development.

But so far we have some precedents set for:

• A pre-resource asset in the US gets a US$169M supply contract signed, and
• A company with a big resource brings in a multi billion dollar partner.

Validation for us that an asset with both (a resource AND inside US borders) could end up being a company maker for an ASX small cap.

We need to reiterate here though that thematic conviction doesn't guarantee individual stock success. OD6 is an early-stage explorer and the fluorspar market is small and opaque. Our macro thesis on US critical minerals may not translate into value for every company in the space, and we could be wrong about both the timing and the opportunity.

Ultimately, we are hoping the Fluorspar asset is what drives OD6 toward achieving our Big Bet which is as follows:

Our OD6 Big Bet

"OD6 re-rates to a +$200M market cap by defining a significant fluorspar resource at Quinn's, attracting US government funding or a strategic offtake/supply deal, and/or attracting a takeover bid at multiples of our Initial Entry Price."

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, country risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our OD6 Investment Memo.

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

The 11 Reasons We Invested in OD6

Here are the 11 key reasons why we Invested in OD6 from our initiation note published a few weeks ago.

Check out the full note here: Our Latest Investment: OD6 Metals (ASX: OD6)

1. Low market cap with room to re-rate higher.
2. OD6’s Fluorspar asset is in Nevada, USA. We have had past success in Nevada.
3. OD6’s projects have produced fluorspar in the past but have never been drilled.
4. OD6 is a ASX listed first mover into US fluorspar assets
5. Fluorspar is listed as one of the 12 strategic defence critical minerals in the US -
6. The US Department of War awarded a US$169-250M supply contract to another US based fluorspar asset in January 2026
7. China controls 60% of Fluorspar supply
8. There is a listed Fluorspar success story on the ASX capped at $974M

UPDATE - Tivan’s market cap has come down since our initiation note, the company now trades at ~$680M.

1. Capital is flowing into US critical minerals macro thematic
2. OD6 can follow the “US critical minerals playbook”
3. Free kick on “one of Australia’s largest and highest grade clay hosted rare earths deposits”

For the latest from OD6’s management, check out the webinar from 2 weeks ago which followed up on the acquisition and included some Q&A at the end here:

OD6 Metals Limited (ASX: OD6) | Investor Briefing Webinar | 10 March 2026

What's next for OD6?

🔄Complete the acquisition of its US fluorspar project

We want to see OD6 complete acquisition of the US Fluorspar project, this will give it full unencumbered access to help it progress the asset.

Milestones:

• 🔄 Due diligence process completed
• 🔲 Option to acquire exercised
• 🔲 Acquisition completed

🔲 Target generation for US fluorspar project

We want to see OD6 sample in and around the old workings on its project, run some geophysics and generate high priority drill targets ahead of its maiden drilling program.

Today, OD6 has begun this process with the satellite image analysis revealing an 8km target corridor, so now we want to see action from on the ground to confirm the extent of fluorspar mineralisation.

Milestones:

• 🔲 Rock chips
• 🔲 Channel sampling
• 🔲 Soil sampling
• 🔲 Geophysics
• 🔲 Drill targets generated

Strategic / Government Engagement for fluorspar in the US

• 🔲 Engage with US Department of War, Department of Energy, or DLA regarding domestic fluorspar supply
• 🔲 Explore strategic partnerships or offtake discussions

What could go wrong?

With exploration set to get underway in the near term, the most obvious risk for OD6 in the short term will be “exploration risk”.

The Quinn Fluorspar Project has never been drilled, and there is no guarantee that drilling confirms a significant fluorspar resource from surface to depth.

Exploration risk

OD6 is at an early stage. The Quinn Fluorspar Project has never been drilled. There is no guarantee that drilling confirms the presence of a significant fluorspar resource at depth, even though historic mining, surface mapping, and satellite analysis are encouraging. Early-stage exploration is inherently risky and many projects fail to deliver economic mineralisation.

Source: "What could go wrong" - OD6 Investment Memo 4 March 2026

Other risks

Like any early-stage exploration company, OD6 carries significant risk, here we aim to identify a few more risks.

While OD6’s project has historical production, modern critical mineral supply chains require highly refined end products like acid-grade fluorspar. There is no guarantee that the raw ore from the Quinn project can be economically processed and upgraded to meet the strict purity specifications required by US military or battery manufacturers.

The project also relies on exploring and potentially restarting a historic 1950s mine site in Nevada. While Nevada is a tier-1 mining jurisdiction, historic sites can sometimes carry legacy environmental liabilities. Securing modern environmental approvals and drill permits for a site that hasn't operated in ~70 years could cause unforeseen delays or add unexpected compliance costs.

Additionally, OD6 is attempting to aggressively advance a brand-new US fluorspar project while also holding a massive clay-hosted rare earth deposit in Western Australia. Managing two vastly different projects across two continents requires significant management bandwidth and capital. There is a risk that company resources are stretched too thin, slowing overall progress or forcing the company to deprioritise one of the assets.

Finally, as a micro-cap company with a valuation of roughly $13.5M post-raise (at 5c per share), OD6 shares may suffer from low trading liquidity. This means investors may find it difficult to buy or sell large volumes of shares on the ASX without significantly impacting the share price, leading to heightened volatility.

Investors should consider these risks carefully and seek professional advice tailored to their personal circumstances before investing.

Our OD6 Investment Memo

Our Investment Memo provides a short, high-level summary of our reasons for Investing.

We use this memo to track the progress of all our Investments over time.

Click here to read our OD6 Investment Memo where you will find:

• What does OD6 do?
• The macro theme for OD6
• Our OD6 Big Bet
• What we want to see OD6 achieve
• Why we are Invested in OD6
• The key risks to our Investment Thesis
• Our Investment Plan