Forward thinking for the "Robot Materials" Portfolio, 10 billion robots are going to require plenty of metal...

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Sick of hearing about silver and gold yet?

We aren't.

BUT we ARE also thinking about what other new “macro investment themes” could attract attention and capital for the next few years.

What’s next?

And how to get exposure to the next global investment theme by adding new stocks to our Portfolio.

Ideally BEFORE the macro theme properly kicks in and capital starts chasing the stocks in the space...

(like we did with our gold and silver stocks)

Will it be a US critical metals Portfolio that will perform?

Or how about a “Monroe Doctrine” Portfolio? (we’ll explain this in a second)

Perhaps it will be a “Robot Materials” Portfolio?

Maybe the electricity needed to power said robots?

Quantum computing?

Or maybe we will see a general commodities cycle again, where most commodities stocks will get a boost?

(as broad and general commodities investors, how good would that be?)

We are trying to find the next theme for our “5 stages of a macro theme” strategy - where we can start making staged Investments:

(our favourite way to gain exposure to these macro themes is via the metals and materials needed to support them - the ASX is a great exchange for metals and mining)

Here’s a few global macro themes we are thinking about for 2026...

US based military critical minerals were catching a bid this week, with interest and buying flowing back into the space, after a fast start followed by a lull over the last ~10 weeks.

(ran too hard too early and needed a cold shower?)

We have already positioned our Portfolio for this theme, now waiting and watching for it to play out.

We came across a document published back in November titled “National Security Strategy for the United States Of America”.

(source)

It's a 30 pager spelling out how Trump and the US will try to maintain its position as the global economic superpower.

But the biggest surprise was the handing over of control on critical minerals to the US Department of War.

And the following:

“The intelligence community will monitor key supply chains... around the world to ensure we understand and mitigate vulnerabilities”

Sounds pretty serious...

The strategy document confirms that the US sees critical minerals and supply chain security as a national security issue.

When national security is at stake - spending to fix a problem can grow exponentially...

(if you have seen the movie “Oppenheimer” about the race to build the first atomic bomb during WW2 you will know what we mean).

We have already seen billions of dollars committed to critical minerals and domestic manufacturing in 2025. We expect to see more of this in 2026 and for at least a few more years.

(especially if the US wants to achieve what it sets out in that strategy document from earlier).

We hope that makes for tailwinds for our Investments - LKY, RML, SS1, VKA, LSR, AW1 and AL3.

How about a “Monroe Doctrine” Portfolio?

Is the USA’s rush to secure critical resources going to be focused within US borders only?

Perhaps not...

Venezuela is in South America, relatively close to the USA, has the world's largest reserves of oil BUT had built strong economic and security ties with Russia and China...

About a week ago the USA military rolled into Venezuela and snatched up and arrested the country's leader and is now encouraging US energy super majors to develop Venezuela's oil fields.

So what is the Monroe Doctrine?

The Monroe Doctrine was a 1823 U.S. foreign policy statement declaring any attempt to extend foreign political control in the Western Hemisphere would be viewed as a hostile act against the United States...

So basically, in the USA’s view at the time, South America, Canada (and Greenland...) were off limits to other countries' influence or “meddling”...

So are we about to see Monroe Doctrine 2.0?

Donald Trump has also recently been making noise about Canada, Colombia, Cuba and Greenland.

(source)

So will the next theme to gain investor capital and attention be “the USA replacing China dependent critical metals with new supply from western hemisphere sources in South America, Canada and... possibly Greenland?

Our critical mineral investments in Brazil SGQ and PNN are both up since the Venezuela incident.

AW1 is also up...

(we invested in AW1 for the largest indium resource in the USA, but they also have a big development stage copper project in Canada).

With the Venezuela news still relatively hot off the press, Cuba and Colombia rhetoric increasing and even Greenland “back on the menu”, this is a theme we are looking into closely.

Essentially, will the USA fund and encourage development of South American and Canadian critical mineral projects?

The “robot materials” Portfolio...?

Over the last few years we have talked a lot about the spiralling US national debt...

Mainly in reference to our gold and silver Portfolios.

To get this US$37 trillion debt under control, the USA either needs to cut its costs (unlikely), inflate its way out OR grow its way out.

(or a combination of all three?)

One way being discussed for the USA to create massive productivity gains to “grow its way out” of this debt is mass adoption of AI and general purpose AI robots for work and the home.

The US could use AI and AI robots to grow out of debt by increasing economic output (GDP) faster than debt accumulates, boosting tax revenues, and potentially causing deflation, which lowers borrowing costs.

This involves widespread automation in manufacturing and services, leading to more goods and services, potentially lower costs, and increased corporate profits, ultimately growing the economy and tax base to better manage the national debt.

AND at home, AI robots could do all cooking, mowing the lawn, doing dishes and folding laundry:

(source)

So not even counting the robots working in factories, corporations or the military, imagine if there were robots in every house doing chores and other functions

Sort of like every house currently has a bunch of mobile phones and laptops lying around.

We are talking billions of robots...

What about the metals and materials needed to build these robots?

There are grams of various metals in a phone...

Versus roughly ~60kg of metals and materials in a robot...

Typical metals and materials for a humanoid robot include aluminium alloys, steel, stainless steel, titanium, magnesium and magnesium‐aluminium alloys, copper, and brass; battery metals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and sometimes iron (in lithium‐iron‐phosphate cells) and light and heavy rare earths.

Times this by potentially billions of robots...

(sounds like the 2020 battery metals that the market once loved could make a comeback if this theme gets legs AND light and heavy rare earths too)

In a Elon Musk interview from a few days ago, he predicts that that 10 billion robots by 2040 is “ a low estimate” (watch where he says it here)

(Tesla’s Optimus home robot first sales are expected in late 2026 or early 2027)

He isn’t the only one who thinks “the robots are coming”:

(Source)

The question here is how quickly this “AI robot worker” boom is going to happen?

(Growing out of the US debt and winning the AI robotics race are the key urgency factors needed for this theme to work)

And where on earth are all these “robot materials” to make billions of robots going to come from?

We are looking forward to the day when we get our first home robot, like when we got our first iPhone - will it be in the next 12 to 18 months?

And will they take off as quickly as iPhones did?

The “energy needed for robots” Portfolio?

Humans do work and jobs in return for money.

(or at home, because their partner told them to and will get angry if they don’t)

All that robots ask for in return for doing work is... electricity to charge their battery.

And where is this electricity going to come from?

Solar? Nuclear? Gas? Coal?

We don’t know, but we think creating abundant electricity from domestic or friendly sources is a critical ingredient to any global superpowers strategy over the next 10 years.

Quantum Computing Portfolio?

Quantum computing has been the sleeper theme while everyone has been distracted with AI chatbots and data centers for AI...

Quantum computers use the rules of quantum physics, the same weird rules that control atoms and tiny particles.

Instead of “bits” that are just 0 or 1, they use qubits, which can be 0, 1, or a mixture of both at the same time, like a spinning coin that is heads and tails until it lands.

Because of this, they can test many possibilities at once...

Which is an incredible step change from current “super computers” used to do mind bogglingly complex modelling.

Quantum computing will revolutionize the following:

• Finance – Portfolio optimization, risk modeling, derivative pricing, and fraud detection.
• Pharma and chemistry – Simulating molecules for drug discovery, new materials, and better batteries
• Logistics and transport – Route planning, scheduling, and full supply‐chain optimization can benefit from quantum algorithms that search many possibilities at once.
• Materials, energy, and climate – Designing new alloys, catalysts, and batteries, optimizing power grids, and improving climate and weather models
• Cybersecurity and cryptography – Breaking current encryption and enabling new quantum‐safe security.

Obviously whichever country “wins” quantum computing will have a major edge in global dominance...

As we said, quantum computers use the weird laws of quantum physics...

They also need equally weird metals to build them, like ytterbium, erbium, europium, neodymium, terbium and yttrium - rare earths.

plus aluminium, niobium, tantalum rubidium and copper...

(question is, aside from the hard to get niche metals which would be the near term rush of attention and capital, will quantum computers ever become mass produced?)

Commodities in general?

What about just commodities in general?

Gold, copper, silver were the best performers in 2025.

But even iron ore is up, not to mention the recently hated battery metals lithium, nickel and cobalt:

(source)

Will the whole dollar debasement trade playout, and all commodities run higher in nominal terms - basically readjusting to a depreciated dollar?

It’s pretty rare to see nearly every metal going up all at the same time.

This time it feels like we have three big factors at play,

1. Decades of underinvestment across most commodity supply chains meaning the supply side is tight.
2. the US dollar’s status as the world reserve currency is under pressure (this is where the debasement idea comes from).
3. The carving up of the world into a multipolar powers, each wielding influence over their own neighborhood and needing to find and develop local commodities supply inside their own neighborhood for national security.

Possibly something like this below scribble we found on the internet?

With each section needing to be fully self-sufficient in its own critical metals supply and manufacturing?

So which theme will it be?

These are just some of the macro themes that we have been thinking about for 2026.

Once we think a theme could start playing out, the plan is to add stocks early and then wait for the wave of interest to come in, in our 5 stages strategy.

Ideally find some unloved and undervalued companies with later stage projects that haven't caught the markets attention yet

(some nice looking, unloved battery metals... I mean robot metals projects out there at good prices)

Then as the theme starts getting attention, institution funds start buying.

And if the theme keeps going... a few of our earlier picks end up being the major beneficiaries of capital flowing into those sectors.

(sometimes it works, other times it doesn’t)

Again, here is that diagram of how we see macro themes play out and how we try to navigate them:

Read more about how we came up with this approach here: How macro trends unfold

We will unpack a few of the macro themes mentioned today in future weekend notes.

Oh, and by the way...

Silver finished the week strong at US$79.9.

Another week of stomach churning daily moves up and down...

BUT

Another week trading in the record US$70 to US$80 range...

Further validation and comfort for investors, funds and institutions still on the sidelines that this is not just a

spike and “might actually be real”...

(certainly validation and comfort us too...)

(source)

Let’s see what happens next week...

For now, have a great weekend,

Next Investors