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ASX:BPM

BPM Minerals Ltd

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ASX:BPM
- BPM Minerals Ltd
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$0.092

Last Price

Investment Memo:

BPM Minerals Ltd (ASX:BPM)

- LIVE

Opened: 21-Aug-2025

Shares Held at Open: 4,335,000

Options Held at Open: 850,000


What does BPM do?

BPM is a junior exploration company with an option to acquire a gold project in the same region as the 8 million ounce Tropicana gold project.

What is the macro theme?

WA remains one of the world’s hottest gold exploration spots, underpinned by tier-1 geology and previous discoveries (like the 8 million ounce Tropicana discovery).

Investors understand WA gold and many have made money from company-making discoveries in the region.

Our Big Bet for BPM

“BPM discovers and defines a large resource, leading to a long term re-rate in the company’s share price by >1,000%”

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, country risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our BPM Investment Memo.

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Why did we invest in BPM?

Tiny market cap, leveraged to exploration success

BPM is capped at just $5.3M trading with an enterprise value close to ~$2M at the moment. We think BPM’s valuation here is leveraged to exploration success.

BPM’s new gold project sits on similar geology to the 8 million ounce Tropicana discovery.

The current owners of Tropicana once held BPM’s ground

AngloGold Ashanti (who discovered Tropicana) drilled BPM’s ground looking for Tropicana 2.0 back in the early 2000s.

BPM first company to do modern exploration over the project

Anglo eventually pivoted back to near-mine exploration when the gold price fell, leaving this area untouched since ~2009. BPM will be the first to do modern exploration here

Large land package, regional scale

BPM’s land package covers 630km^2 of ground which means that if a discovery is made, it will have the defensible land position to drill it out.

Previous hits found visible gold

Anglo hit visible gold in some of its drilling including a 9.7m of gold at 4.5g/t hit. None of this has been followed up yet.

BPM’s project is close to existing infrastructure

BPM’s new asset is within 200km of ~ three operating mills which will make it easier for BPM to develop any discovery it makes. It could also mean any big discovery attracts corporate interest…

Incoming project vendor team have made discoveries before

Project vendors Dr. Ross Chandler and Luke Blais joined BPM as technical advisor and exploration manager respectively. Both were part of the Dreadnought Resources team which made the Yin rare earths discovery back in 2021-2022 (Dreadnought was capped at ~$440M post-discovery). The two also received AMEC’s 2023 Prospector Award for their role in that discovery.

What do we expect BPM to deliver?

Objective #1: Drilling at Gold Project

We want to see BPM sign heritage agreements and receive final drilling approvals for its first drill program. Here we want to see BPM follow up (and hopefully) extend the gold mineralisation found at Beachcomber. This was where Anglo hit 9.7m at 4.5g/t gold

Milestones

in-progress Heritage Agreement

not done Heritage Survey

not done Drilling permits

not done Drilling starts

not done Drilling results (final assays)

Objective #2: Maiden resource estimate at Gold Project

Once drilling is complete we want to see BPM announce a maiden resource on the Beachcomber target area.

Milestones

not done Maiden resource estimate

Objective #3: Target generation on regional targets

We want to see BPM run sampling/surveying programs and high priority regional targets.

Milestones

not done Geochemical sampling (soils, trenching)

not done Geophysical surveys

not done Identify drill targets

Objective #4: Drill regional targets

Finally, we want to see BPM drill its highest priority regional target (and hopefully make a new discovery).

Milestones

not done Licenses to be granted.

not done Drilling permits

not done Drilling starts

not done Drilling results

Objective #5: Decide on option on rare earths project

BPM also has an option on a rare earths project in WA

Milestones

not done Exploration permits granted

not done Decision on rare earths option

What could go wrong?

Exploration risk

BPM is still a long way from a discovery, and even further from defining a resource.

Just because AngloGold drilled a few holes back in the day, it doesn’t guarantee BPM will hit anything significant in its follow-up drilling.

BPM is an early-stage exploration company, and could come up empty-handed.

Heritage delay/permitting

BPM has given guidance for its first drill program to start in Q3-2025.

Given we are more than half way through the quarter and BPM hasn’t received any heritage clearance as yet, there is always a chance that the timelines for the initial program are delayed.

Significant delays could be negative for BPM’s share price as it would burn down the company’s cash balance and bring the company to a position where it needs to raise more capital and dilute existing shareholders.

Deal risk

BPM has picked up the project under a 12 -month option, which means there are still a few hurdles to clear before it formally owns the asset.

There’s also always a chance that BPM walks away after the 12 months if the drilling doesn’t deliver, which would mean time and cash spent on a project that BPM may choose not to advance.

Funding risk/dilution risk

As a pre revenue explorer BPM is dependent on capital markets to fund ongoing drilling and development.

That could come at discounted prices and further dilute existing shareholders.

Commodity price risk

The performance of commodity stocks are often closely linked to the value of the underlying commodities they are seeking to extract. Should gold prices fall, this could hurt the BPM share price.

Market risk

Broader market sentiment could deteriorate, and shares as an investment class trade lower, taking BPM’s share price with it. Alternatively, there could be further sector specific pain ahead where junior explorers suffer a lot more than the broader market.

What is our investment plan?

We are Invested in BPM to make a discovery and define a gold discovery.

Our plan is to hold the majority of our position in BPM into the upcoming drilling program.

We may look to sell up to 20% of our holding if the company delivers on one or more of our Investment Memo objectives and/or the share price materially re-rates in line with our minimum hold conditions.


Disclosure: Disclosure: S3 Consortium Pty Ltd (the Company) and Associated Entities own 4,335,000 BPM Shares and 850,000 BPM Options at the time of publishing this Investment Memo. The Company has been engaged by BPM to share our commentary on the progress of our Investment in BPM over time. This information is general in nature about a speculative investment and does not constitute personal advice. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

Investment Memo:

BPM Minerals Ltd (ASX:BPM)

- LIVE

Opened: 04-Feb-2022

Shares Held at Open: 1,670,000


What does BPM do?

BPM Minerals (ASX:BPM) is an exploration company aiming to make lead-zinc discoveries in the Earaheedy Basin in WA, Australia. BPM also holds other early stage gold-nickel projects across WA.

What is the macro theme?

Lead and zinc are two industrial metals that have moved higher due to an inflation-driven commodities supercycle. Lead is mainly used for Internal Combustion Engine (petrol car) batteries while zinc is primarily used for galvanising steel and making alloys. As fiscal and monetary stimulus increases infrastructure spending - we believe zinc in particular is primed to move beyond its current elevated price to all-time-highs.

Our Big Bet for BPM

“BPM discovers and defines a large resource, leading to a long term re-rate in the company’s share price by >1,000%”

NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true. There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved, including development risk, country risk and commodity price risk - just some of which we list in our BPM Investment Memo.

Success will require a significant amount of luck. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Why did we invest in BPM?

Assets near Rumble Resources’ Chinook Discovery

BPM owns Exploration Licenses right next door (40km along strike) to Rumble Resources who made the Chinook Lead/zinc discovery. BPM's projects share fundamental geological similarities with Rumble’s tenements in the region.

Cap Structure

At the start of the year, BPM had only 49M shares and 38M options on issue with a market cap of just $13.7M. With ~$4.4M in cash in the bank and an enterprise value of $9.3M it is highly leveraged to a new discovery.

What do we expect BPM to deliver?

Objective #1: First Lead/Zinc drill holes in the Earaheedy Basin.

  • The Hawkins Project sits ~40km along strike from the Rumble discovery and is the highest priority project for BPM in this region.
  • We want to see the company rapidly define drill targets and then drill them this year.

Milestones

complete Geochemical/geophysical surveys to generate drilling targets

complete Drilling permitting

complete Drilling commencement

complete Drilling results

Objective #2: Side bets: Drilling at the company’s other projects.

We expect BPM will make drilling progress on the company’s other projects, we are looking for:

  • 5,000m of AC drilling at the Santy gold project
  • 2,500m of RC drilling at the Nepean nickel project
  • 5,000m of AC drilling at the Claw gold project.

What could go wrong?

Permitting risk

There is always a risk with exploration projects that the necessary approvals or agreements like land access, heritage and native title agreements are not reached and permits can go un-granted.

Exploration risk

BPM's projects are at a very early stage, most are yet to have high-priority drill targets identified, any drilling programs done in the near-term could return no mineralisation.

Delay risk

We originally invested in BPM back in May 2021, hoping they would drill the Hawkins prospect before Christmas 2021… that definitely didn't happen so we now take BPM’s timelines with a grain of salt - timelines may be delayed.

Financing risk

BPM is a junior explorer with early stage projects. They still need to do a lot of target generation work before the projects are ready to drill, markets may lose momentum and funding for early stage higher risk exploration like this could dry up.

Commodity risk

We are primarily invested in BPM for the lead/zinc drilling at Earaheady, but the market may lose interest if lead and zinc prices cool off.

What is our investment plan?

Our investment plan for BPM is the same as for all our early stage, exploration investments:

  • Invest early (way before the main, initial drilling event)
  • Patiently wait till the drilling event approaches (late 2022)
  • Free carry and take some profit prior to the initial drill results
  • Hold a position into the result
  • Reassess the plan based on the initial results.

Disclosure: The authors of this article and owners of Next Investors, S3 Consortium Pty Ltd, and associated entities, own 1,670,000 BPM shares and 850,000 BPM options at the time of writing this memo. S3 Consortium Pty Ltd has been engaged by BPM to share our commentary on the progress of our investment in BPM over time.

Our Investment Summary

Date of Initial Coverage

19-May-21

Inital Entry Price

$0.200

Returns from Initial Entry

-54%

High Point

198%

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